Prediction Our likely position at the end of round 23

[Event Horizon]

Given where we are at, we are odds on to remain in 8th spot. Simple math tells us that with our percentage we need to win 2 more games from here than at least one other team currently above us to move up. With just 5 games left, our best bet to avoid an interstate final seems to win at least 4 games and hope that West Coast wins just 2. With their tough draw that's possible.

Finishing 7th is likely to result in a final against Dogs.

Finishing 8th could result in a final against Geelong or Dogs but more likely away in Perth, Sydney or Adelaide.

 

[discodaddy]

Given where we are at, we are odds on to remain in 8th spot. Simple math tells us that with our percentage we need to win 2 more games from here than at least one other team currently above us to move up. With just 5 games left, our best bet to avoid an interstate final seems to win at least 4 games and hope that West Coast wins just 2. With their tough draw that's possible.

Finishing 7th is likely to result in a final against Dogs.

Finishing 8th could result in a final against Geelong or Dogs but more likely away in Perth, Sydney or Adelaide.

Some stats and permutations to go with your pondering...
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...d-their-september-fate?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

[tazaa]

We need that first final at the G.
Wouldn't mind playing a semi final against a GWS away.
Ideally a prelim at the G against Geelong or Hawthorn is in our best interest.
Top 4 with our percentage is too hard.
Losses to Port and Hawthorn will sting.

 

[Roozee]

7th or 8th and need the cards to fall our way in regards to who we play.

First two weeks a combo of the Dogs/Cats or GWS away. Prelim at the G most likely Hawthorn by that point. Prefer them in a prelim than a GF!

Then an interstate team at the G again on Grand Final Day and we're holding up the cup!

Utopian...... Yes!

 

[JB Our Saviour]

Some stats and permutations to go with your pondering...
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...d-their-september-fate?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Perhaps the below is an easier read -


http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...le-feast-in-the-run-home-20160725-gqdgwe.html


Final away to Sydney according to Connolley...

 

[trooroo4life]

All depends on us beating the Saints. Do, and i give us every chance of causing a few upsets on the way home. Every game on the run home is winnable just depends which North turn up, Win every game from now until the end and we will get a home final. Dont beat the saints and i really doubt we even make the 8.

 

[Too_many_talls]

It's pretty depressing reading really and I think luck has really been against us this year with (a) injuries and (b) the stacked nature of the ladder which means 15 wins might only be good enough for 6-7th place.

Adelaide / GWS have really easy draws. Ours is hard as we all know. Top 4 is no chance.

If we lose this week I suspect we'll miss the 8 as the saints have a much easier draw coming in and we may realistically win 0-1 games coming in.

The best we can hope for is to win 3-4 of our last 5 and go into September with reasonable confidence...

 

[Gasometer]

Don't know.

Don't care.

Just keep winning.

 

[ferball]

Some stats and permutations to go with your pondering...
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...d-their-september-fate?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

That was good but the prick needs to stop referring to us as the Kangaroos when every other team has their location in their name.

 

[Benj7]

That pretty much loss to Essendon is haunting us along with Hawks we win those how we should have we would be top 4, I'll take out game against Melbourne and port cause that's dodgy but that pretty much summed our season in the end

 

[shniko11]

Yeah i can't see us finishing higher than 7th now with alot of things have to go our way for anything higher.
And the eight so close we could play anyone apart from Hawks in the first week.
We missed our chance for top four and beating the Saints first is needed to be a lock in the eight.
But i woudn't mind playing GWS in a final in Sydney.
And an MCG Prelim against Hawks/Cats if we get there would be grest aswell.

 

[ferball]

* it lets just beat everyone we play in the finals.

 

[Event Horizon]

All depends on us beating the Saints. Do, and i give us every chance of causing a few upsets on the way home. Every game on the run home is winnable just depends which North turn up, Win every game from now until the end and we will get a home final. Dont beat the saints and i really doubt we even make the 8.

The point is we need to win two more games than other teams in the eight. That's pretty unlikely.

 

[Prefectionist]

Really? Ive got us beating Saints Bulldogs GWS and I am quite bullish on Sydney too.

 

[Prefectionist]

I'd like to see outside 8 teams * things up a bit for the top 8

freo to beat west coast
port to beat adelaide
coll to beat bulldogs

that sort of thing






-----------
inb4 some wag says saints to beat north

 

[Kimbo]

The biggest issue will be playing interstate teams at their home ground. We'll have to do it more than once to have any impact I suspect.

So, 2017...

 

[TruRoos7]

We screwed up ( with the help of injuries ) and we are now paying the price.
I can recall a thread about how us not putting the teams we beat to the sword earlier in the year brought up the debate about how some of us were never happy even when we win, here we are 2 months later and that s**t percentage may more than likely prevent us from rising past 8th...

 

[KiwiRoo]

Best thing about playing the top teams is that you impact their spot in the 8 too.

 

[Hojuman]

My guess would be interstate.

 

[holeinone]

Speaking of R23, saw this on one of my FB groups Tuesday - We will play our round 23 match against GWS on

Saturday August 27, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium

 

[scooby1279]

beat saints, dogs, one of hawks or sydney, and gws. Not sure where 3 wins will put us but the beauty is its up to the players.

 

[Mav]

beat saints, dogs, one of hawks or sydney, and gws. Not sure where 3 wins will put us but the beauty is its up to the players.

Expecting to win 2 of Hawks, Swans and GWS.

 

[Benj7]

Our fate is in our own hands win the must wins we deserve to play finals lose them and we don't, he'll I'd rather that than being in port or
Saints position where they are hoping another team loses for them to get in

 

[Steamin Beamin]

on the flip side, if we win all 5, possible as our injured players come back and some players get back to form, we can can become flag favourites again.

 

[benbanjo]

I just dont wana play in perth or in sydney againt the swans.

GWS would be ok