Analysis Our performance with historical context

[Big_Tony]

Most discussion around footy is based around emotion and personal opinions, (which is what makes it interesting). But I thought I would put together a basic graph of our performance between 1987 to 2015 to visualise where we have been and where we are now. It is hard to get passionate and argue about a bunch of colourful lines after all.




Many factors impact a season, like difficulty of the draw, injuries, form slumps and just plain luck; but for the purpose of this exercise just throw all that out and focus on what the data says. Looking at the graph, this is what I see (most of it obvious):

· The contending and rebuilding phases can clearly be seen. We are currently at the beginning of our next contending phase. 2011 and 2012 were outliers; we weren’t ready.

· We have taken about 5 years to build the team from bottoming out to premiership chance for the last 2 cycles (2001-2005 and 2010-2015).

· To be a legit contender, history says we need between 9-11 home wins and at least 6 away wins. The team has always struggled away from home. This is nothing new.

· There was a lag between our home and away performance from 2001. It took a couple of seasons for the away form to pick up to premiership winning level. Could this be happening again now? We are trending in the right direction.

 

[kranky al]

Hope so - good read

 

[kerrazy]

Just makes you realise how much we dropped off it at the end of 2007 compared to our steady decline in the 90's.

 

[Shmiddy15]

This is really cool, great work! I found it particularly interesting that no matter how low we've gotten, we've always managed to win at least 1 away game. Also in 2013 was that 6 away wins and 3 home wins??

 

[Big_Tony]

This is really cool, great work! I found it particularly interesting that no matter how low we've gotten, we've always managed to win at least 1 away game. Also in 2013 was that 6 away wins and 3 home wins??

Yep, Quirk of the draw in 2013 I think. We played more of the top teams at home. Our away wins all came against bottom 8 sides, including the bottom 3 on the ladder that year. We beat Melbourne, Brisbane, GWS, Saints, Adelaide and Essendon away that year.

 

[Big_Tony]

If that minimum 6 away wins to make the grand final holds true, we need to get our skates on. Only 7 away matches remaining this year. Our away draw for this year is absolutely brutal (apart from an easier stretch of 3 in the middle)! Hawks, Sydney, Geelong, Port, Bulldogs, Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, GWS, Adelaide.

 

[ChampRevesby]

What would be far more interesting is to plot the wins against top 8 sides away and how that compares to other teams.

 

[Big_Tony]

What would be far more interesting is to plot the wins against top 8 sides away and how that compares to other teams.

Yep, would like to do something like that... but that requires more effort!

I think it has been pointed out by a few people now though, that this season not one single team has traveled and won against a top 8 side. The only "away" team to win so far has been the Hawks vs Bulldogs at Docklands... which you can't call travel.

 

[Matera LeNui]

Great stuff Tone! Shows for the most part we've been a consistently good footy club.

I also love a good pie graph.

 

[ConcreteWaters]

Love it Big Tony. I reckon we can get at least 5 away wins (loss to Adelaide away), but will hopefully be in it up to our eyeballs against the dogs. A lot is made of our away form against top sides, but they aren't that flash on the road against each other. A good stretch for us coming up.

 

[QS]

That f'n brisbane game in 2012 Quinz

 

[Falco]

That f'n brisbane game in 2012 Quinz

I was at the Gabba for the game, couldn't believe what I was seeing. Still don't know how we lost.

 

[QS]

I was at the Gabba for the game, couldn't believe what I was seeing. Still don't know how we lost.

Was that touched goal game?

 

[Falco]

Was that touched goal game?

Yep - McKeever touched it and we lost by 2 points. I was fuming, my missus at the time was shell shocked by the melts.

 

[MrPenguin]

I was at the Gabba for the game, couldn't believe what I was seeing. Still don't know how we lost.

I've legit never been more angry and my father in law was impressed when I walked out of the room without causing further damage to my brand.

 

[MerryHell]

Nice work, I'm always a fan of using data to illustrate an insight, but what it doesn't tell you:
- In our previous 2 premiership cycles, we had an abundance of A grade midfield talent (midfields win premierships).
- Right now we have none.
- And GWS has so much it makes me cry.
- But with free agency now, clubs can address major deficits sooner (between seasons) through good trading. However this will require our club showing more testicular fortitude than it has done so far in going hard after what we need and stop living in the fantasy that B/C graders will develop into A grade.

 

[ioppolo]

2013, three wins at home, six away.

What a farkin shit year.

 

[QS]

we need and stop living in the fantasy that B/C graders will develop into A grade.

Summed up beautifully. We live in fantasy land that a B grader will step up. It never happens..

 

[placebo]

It's all well and good to say it took us a few years to gel before winning away in the early 2000's, but we also had one of the greatest midfields of the modern era. We don't have that now, and the situation is not comparable.

 

[Big_Tony]

It's all well and good to say it took us a few years to gel before winning away in the early 2000's, but we also had one of the greatest midfields of the modern era. We don't have that now, and the situation is not comparable.

Yep, fair enough. Although by the same token our forward line from the 2000s team was nowhere near our current one. The game is usually won in the middle though. Imagine if our current forwards could be combined with that midfield.

 

[nameless]

Yep, would like to do something like that... but that requires more effort!

I think it has been pointed out by a few people now though, that this season not one single team has traveled and won against a top 8 side. The only "away" team to win so far has been the Hawks vs Bulldogs at Docklands... which you can't call travel.

Edit: my bad, didn't realise this post was from Friday.