Our Premiership Window

[hbk_aus]

Interesting to read that Moon's comments apparently "ruffled some feathers" in the Geelong camp...

 

[Vegas.]

Interesting to read that Moon's comments apparently "ruffled some feathers" in the Geelong camp...

I'm not surprised to be honest. When I read the article I was reminded of Bombers comment about "not knowing what goes through Cams head sometimes". It just seemed like everything he said would have been better off unsaid, and while he isn't one to trot out cliches, he could have at least had a more positive spin on the whole deal. He really puzzles me sometimes.

 

[Bom Schiggidy]

It seems like Mooney is the only player who ever trots these comments out. It also seems that he and probably Ottens are the two most likely to be put out to pasture first. Ironic that the bloke who single handedly kicked them out of a Grannie and has been less than the backbone of their assault on the comp for the last 3 years, is also the one talking them out of their domination. Cats still the front runners for mine for 3 years.

 

[geelongfan]

because we are footy obsessed passionate (bordering maniac) supporters AND we have nothing better to do till next weekend when we thump north. or is that just me ?

Nah that's me as well! Been counting down the days until the NAB Cup and the opening round against Essendon for ages!
Can not wait.

 

[cynical]

really depends on if ablett stays or not (i assume selwood is staying)

to win the flag you really just need the best midfield 2 good ruckmen, a very good big forward/2 average big forwards and a decent backline

if ablett and selwood stay our midfield is likely to still be the best for a few years
hawkins is looking like a good big forward
and our backline with mackie/taylor is still good enough

its just the ruck thats the problem

The whole Premiership window thing is just lol. It all depends on list management, yes guys get older but if your main play makers are <28 then all is still good provided you have decent enough replacements for the older guys.

 

[Vegas.]

Ironic that the bloke who single handedly kicked them out of a Grannie and has been less than the backbone of their assault on the comp for the last 3 years, is also the one talking them out of their domination. Cats still the front runners for mine for 3 years.

Pretty good call. Mooney obviously plays a pretty important role off the field, but there is no doubt he is past his best on it. We do tend to struggle when he isn't playing, but that is more due to a lack of a viable replacement than anything else, so our 'structure' falls apart.

Not sure about 3 years, Scarlett and Ottens will be gone by then and are far too vital to our success, but this year should not be the end of it.

 

[manboob]

To quote Vicky Pollard "yeah but no" I don't know if they are "far too vital to our success" we won 18 games this year without Otto and the way the Q9 is coming on things look good down back. Agreed they are really really important but don't think them leaving will be the sole cause of our demise, if that ever happens.

 

[Vegas.]

To quote Vicky Pollard "yeah but no" I don't know if they are "far too vital to our success" we won 18 games this year without Otto and the way the Q9 is coming on things look good down back. Agreed they are really really important but don't think them leaving will be the sole cause of our demise, if that ever happens.

We also had Mumford come in and play well enough to earn him a million dollar contract elsewhere, yet we still got smashed in the ruck without Otto. Make no mistake, we don't win the flag without him.

To quote Beyonce, Scarlett is quite simply "irreplaceable". You may find someone that has his defensive skillset (highly unlikely), but there is no way they will also have his attacking ability. Gillies looks to be in a similar mould, and maybe that will be good enough, especially with Taylor continuing to develop, but I really do think that losing Scarlett will prevent us from being a real premiership threat. I can't see us having a massive fall from grace, the club is too well run for that to happen, but sometimes there isn't much difference between a flag and an early finals exit.

 

[Ashb23]

We also had Mumford come in and play well enough to earn him a million dollar contract elsewhere, yet we still got smashed in the ruck without Otto. Make no mistake, we don't win the flag without him.

To quote Beyonce, Scarlett is quite simply "irreplaceable". You may find someone that has his defensive skillset (highly unlikely), but there is no way they will also have his attacking ability. Gillies looks to be in a similar mould, and maybe that will be good enough, especially with Taylor continuing to develop, but I really do think that losing Scarlett will prevent us from being a real premiership threat. I can't see us having a massive fall from grace, the club is too well run for that to happen, but sometimes there isn't much difference between a flag and an early finals exit.

Maybe, but there is no reason Scarlo can't play another 5 years. Maybe not as full back, but as a back pocket, ala Dustin Fletcher. I think we are a long way off seeing the last of Matty personally.

 

[crunchola]

Maybe, but there is no reason Scarlo can't play another 5 years. Maybe not as full back, but as a back pocket, ala Dustin Fletcher. I think we are a long way off seeing the last of Matty personally.

scarlo was ready to go after the gf from good reports, had to be talked into playing, so don't agree with you.

 

[NEMINI]

scarlo was ready to go after the gf from good reports, had to be talked into playing, so don't agree with you.

Can't play and could walk away are not the same. Lots of Athletes walk away when they coulc have continued to play.

 

[Claude Balls]

We also had Mumford come in and play well enough to earn him a million dollar contract elsewhere, yet we still got smashed in the ruck without Otto. Make no mistake, we don't win the flag without him.

To quote Beyonce, Scarlett is quite simply "irreplaceable". You may find someone that has his defensive skillset (highly unlikely), but there is no way they will also have his attacking ability. Gillies looks to be in a similar mould, and maybe that will be good enough, especially with Taylor continuing to develop, but I really do think that losing Scarlett will prevent us from being a real premiership threat. I can't see us having a massive fall from grace, the club is too well run for that to happen, but sometimes there isn't much difference between a flag and an early finals exit.

Really?

Hawthorn won a flag with Brent Renouf and Robert Campbell. Personally I think Ottens' value is slightly overrated around these parts. I understand we owe the '07 flag to him on account of his prelim performance, but that was 3 years ago now and is really an exaggerated sample due to it being only one game, and one in which many other big names were conspicuously quiet. Over a stretch of say 10 or more games, we have still done very well without him. Like Rounds 3 - 13 last year. 10 wins and 0 losses.

He is no doubt an important player, I think I even had him in the top 6 or so in a previous post, but to say "no Ottens, no flag", is quite an exaggeration IMO.

 

[Vegas.]

Hawthorn won a flag with Brent Renouf and Robert Campbell.

They also had guys kicking goals out of their arse from 60. We don't.

The 09 GF was so close that there are a number of guys you could say that if we didn't have them, we don't win it. For mine, Ottens is definitely one of them. You saw what Gardiner did to us in round 14, big Blakey was simply no match for him.

 

[Claude Balls]

They also had guys kicking goals out of their arse from 60. We don't.

The 09 GF was so close that there are a number of guys you could say that if we didn't have them, we don't win it. For mine, Ottens is definitely one of them. You saw what Gardiner did to us in round 14, big Blakey was simply no match for him.

And last year we were lucky enough for the Saints to miss 4 or 5 gimmees in front of goal. All that talk is beside the point.

You say that there were a number of guys whose absence would have swung the outcome in last years GF. Well obviously, becuase it was so close. Of all the players on our list, I would say that only Scarlett is structurally important enough to have said of him what you said about Ottens in your previous post. Fact is, we have played a shit load of games without Ottens over the last two years, and won the vast majority of them.

 

[Vegas.]

And last year we were lucky enough for the Saints to miss 4 or 5 gimmees in front of goal. All that talk is beside the point.

Agreed, but you mentioned Hawthorn. That has no relevance to our side.

Fact is, we have played a shit load of games without Ottens over the last two years, and won the vast majority of them.

No doubt, but we have been a dominant side across the board. The four games we lost without Ottens last year were to top 8 sides - and it is those games where you can really see the difference he makes.

For the record, in the last 3 years Ottens has played 44 games. We have lost 3 of them.

 

[Claude Balls]

Agreed, but you mentioned Hawthorn. That has no relevance to our side.



No doubt, but we have been a dominant side across the board. The four games we lost without Ottens last year were to top 8 sides - and it is those games where you can really see the difference he makes.

For the record, in the last 3 years Ottens has played 44 games. We have lost 3 of them.

All good points, and the stat in particular highlights how important he is. But you've sort of touched on what I'm getting at with that stat and also the comment about being dominant across the board. I.e. There are several players in our side, like SJ and Selwood, who have similarly impressive 'win rates' whilst playing. Considering also that in the four games we lost to top 8 sides last year without Ottens, we were missing not just him but several others, it doesn't make a watertight case that we can't win big games without him. Important yes, but the be all and end all, not IMO. Scarlett is the only player on whom I'd say our fortunes truly depend.

Anyway, I don't suppose I need to bother arguing about exactly how good our ruckman is! He's bloody good and bloody important when up and firing.

 

[Vegas.]

Yeah, there are too many variables in AFL footy to emphatically prove that one player can make all the difference, especially when we have just been winning non-stop. Part of the reason for our winning has been the ability of players to step into alternative roles (eg. Kelly down back, Jimmy as a stopper) for the greater good of the team. Where I think a guy like Ottens (and Scarlett) becomes so important is that his position is by definition hard to replace with just anybody. We have pretty limited bigs on our list, so had to rotate Hawk, and even less desirably Taylor through the ruck while Ottens was out, unlike the loss of a Hunt whom we can comfortably cover.

Anyway I'm pretty much rambling now. I just remember when Ottens first came on the ground against Freo in rd22, his first touch was a deft hitout straight down Gazza's throat that lead to a goal. Made me feel a whole lot better about our flag chances.

 

[crunchola]

Can't play and could walk away are not the same. Lots of Athletes walk away when they coulc have continued to play.

time will tell how he stands up to another year

 

[Pure_Ownage]

lulwat? and that is what the AFL are deeming fair compensation?

F*CK ME! If thats all we get, I'm gone.. A-League/NRL/Super 15's/WNBL/NBL/Lawn Bowls/Darts here I come..

No offence Tristagi...but have you been living under a rock?

Why do you think so many of us have been arguing against this "compensation formula". While none of us would like to lose Ablett, I think most would accept it if we got in return somewhere near to what WCE got for Judd. But pick 17 or thereabouts just isn't fair.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If Ablett is going to leave he should at least sign a new one year contract for $1 and make the GC deal with us for him. Agreed with everything Tristagi said except Lonergan staying, honestly he is not up to the task.

On Ablett...agree...don't know why he would be kind enough to do that as it would really make his potential new employers mad and potentially jeopardise the deal, but I'd love it if he did.

On Lonergan I also agree...and ditto Gamble unless he lifts soon.

 

[scottydeewah]

We are going to seriously miss Scarlo when he leaves. It will dawn on people that we were lucky enough to have a bloke who is right up there with the greatest fullbacks the game has EVER seen. Sure our backline may still be competitive and we may be able to win premierships without him. But make no mistake this guy is a once in a generation player, worthy of being up their with other club legends like Farmer, Ablett and the likes.

Absolute CHAMPION!

 

[Tristagi]

No offence Tristagi...but have you been living under a rock?

Why do you think so many of us have been arguing against this "compensation formula". While none of us would like to lose Ablett, I think most would accept it if we got in return somewhere near to what WCE got for Judd. But pick 17 or thereabouts just isn't fair.

I really haden't seen anything about the 'compensation forumla' I expected us to get something like what WCE got for Judd, to me that is fair and should Ablett wanna leave then I would take it but pick 20 something? thats a a joke..

As for the Ottens debate, a lot depends on West/Simpson/Vardy. If either of them can develop into a good ruckman we should be ok. Vardy was liked by a lot of recruiters and hopefully can fill his potential. Otto hopefully has two or three left in him, and Scarlo hoprfully the same. If they do then those two/three years are going to be crucial as we need the development of Gillies/Drum/Taylor/West/Simpson/Vardy to really come along. By the time Otto/Scarlo do retire hopefully whoever the replacement will be need to have 30-50 AFL games in them. All this while still wining games (and hopefully another flag).

 

[scottydeewah]

I would hope that if Ablett leaves he (as some have already mentioned) at least tries to ensure that the club is compensated. We would want at least one top 2 pick as well as another inside the top 15 or a player. It would be pretty shit by Ablett and the AFL if we got shafted with pick 20 or so.

Where are the rules, wasnt the compensation quiet complicated due to it being based on performance and the likes?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I would hope that if Ablett leaves he (as some have already mentioned) at least tries to ensure that the club is compensated. We would want at least one top 2 pick as well as another inside the top 15 or a player. It would be pretty shit by Ablett and the AFL if we got shafted with pick 20 or so.

Where are the rules, wasnt the compensation quiet complicated due to it being based on performance and the likes?

It's complicated and the AFL haven't completely explained how it'll be determined.

What they have explained though is that it's one pick (not multiple) and the pick will be taken at the end of the round (so as other clubs don't lose their picks)...therefore it means a shafting for us.

 

[Rosso]

Spot on. What makes it worse is that the first round picks for GC & GSW are not tradeable. Therefore we have a good year, lose Gaz and then get offered pick 25 for the best player in the comp if we were to use it straight away, well in 2011.

The only upside is we have 5 years to use that pick so if we are rebuilding in 2015 we might have out normal pick 7 and then the pick for Gaz would be pick 8.

Clubs need to nominate before the season that they intend to use their compensation pick in the draft but unless you're planning on bottoming out, it doesn't really help. If you line the picks up over the next few years if Gaz left and we used the pick in 2011 after another strong season we would get a similar pick to for what we got for Mumford or Prismall. Late 20's or early 30's. Is this fair, eqitable. No, it stinks and it would cost our club dearly.

I have no doubt Geelong's premiership window is as wide as the Luna Park entrance just as long as we keep our mids together. Hawkins, Taylor & Mackie have already consolidated key posts (well Mack has at times) and Selwood is odds on to take the mantle from Gaz in a few years time as the comp's finest. Other clubs will lose players to the new franchises as well and the compromised drafts is going to make it tougher for sides to improve through drafting but trading will be player for player rather than picks in the next 2 years.