Our Run home - near impossible to finish top 4

[RJK Tiger]

So out of a bad case of insomnia, i had a play with the Ladder predictor. Basically i found out that, our run home is laughably horrendous compared to the other teams in the 8 & not only is it looking near impossible to make the top 4, Its hard to see us finishing better than 6th, but most likely 8th!

Even with us getting to 15 wins, my predictor had us finishing 8th! wtf!

Basically, our run home is deplorable, while every other team in the top 4 has the softest run you could dream up....

Our run home includes...


The Lions twice including the Gabba
Geelong
Eagles at subi
Giants in Sydney
Dockers at Subi
Suns @ Metricon

5 interstate games in the final 13 - we actually play every interstate team this year away, except Sydney & Adelaide.

I had as doing a very healthy 10 out of 13 - which based on our injuires and the high amount of interstate games and quality opponents, would be a great effort.

Even with that, i had us finishing 8th!




This big issue i had was all the other top 8 teams have real soft runs home, or at least have a nice spread home advantage games against similar quality teams. This is obviously just a predictor, but i would be intrigued to see if anyone else has attempted this and what results you see. I did not do these games with "margins" - so looking at it we really need to make sure we bury some of our crapper opponents to get our percentage higher - and hope teams like Sydney or the Eagles maybe drop a few games they would expect to win.

Its hard to imagine 15 wins only earning you 8th, but looking at the state of the bottom 8 teams, its also hard to imagine any of them getting any real run going to cause any real trouble

This clash against the Lions this week is actually incredibly important - its a swing game for us to make up room on a team which look likely to finish top 4. With 2 games at Subi we really need this one so then we can possibly just split the WA games - its hard to imagine us winning both especially since our record over there against WCE is pretty poor.

The 3 losses i had us were Lions @ Gabba, Eagles @ Perth & Geelong

 

[jc12]

So out of a bad case of insomnia, i had a play with the Ladder predictor. Basically i found out that, our run home is laughably horrendous compared to the other teams in the 8 & not only is it looking near impossible to make the top 4, Its hard to see us finishing better than 6th, but most likely 8th!

Even with us getting to 15 wins, my predictor had us finishing 8th! wtf!

Basically, our run home is deplorable, while every other team in the top 4 has the softest run you could dream up....

Our run home includes...
View attachment 1130511

The Lions twice including the Gabba
Geelong
Eagles at subi
Giants in Sydney
Dockers at Subi
Suns @ Metricon

5 interstate games in the final 13 - we actually play every interstate team this year away, except Sydney & Adelaide.

I had as doing a very healthy 10 out of 13 - which based on our injuires and the high amount of interstate games and quality opponents, would be a great effort.

Even with that, i had us finishing 8th!
View attachment 1130512



This big issue i had was all the other top 8 teams have real soft runs home, or at least have a nice spread home advantage games against similar quality teams. This is obviously just a predictor, but i would be intrigued to see if anyone else has attempted this and what results you see. I did not do these games with "margins" - so looking at it we really need to make sure we bury some of our crapper opponents to get our percentage higher - and hope teams like Sydney or the Eagles maybe drop a few games they would expect to win.

Its hard to imagine 15 wins only earning you 8th, but looking at the state of the bottom 8 teams, its also hard to imagine any of them getting any real run going

lol
1. i doubt a team will finish 8th with 15 wins, so your predictions are cooked.
2. melb and dogs will have a down patch at some point
3. geel arent that good
4. syd will tire out
5. weagles are flat track bullies, if we get 16+ wins it will get us top 4
6. you are overestimating the rest, and underrating us a ton, we peak at the right time for a reason

 

[RJK Tiger]

lol
1. i doubt a team will finish 8th with 15 wins, so your predictions are cooked.
2. melb and dogs will have a down patch at some point
3. geel arent that good
4. syd will tire out
5. weagles are flat track bullies, if we get 16+ wins it will get us top 4
6. you are overestimating the rest, and underrating us a ton, we peak at the right time for a reason

have a crack at it and let me know how you go. I had the Dee's dropping to 5th so i accounted for a bit of their fall.

I really rate the Dogs so dropping a lot is really questionable for me - although their run home is even worse than ours - but, they have a few wins in the bank on us already which really hurts, we have to out win them by 4 games out of 13 to pass them due to our likely inferior percentage -0 they basically have to go less than 50% for that to happen.

Hard to say the Cats are not that good considering how they looked against us, even with Dangerfield missing. With Cameron & Hawkins working far better in tandem than Lynch & Jack, they will at least beat most bottom 8 teams with relative ease.

Swans have the softest run, but you are likely right. That does not change our top 4 hopes at all though. The Lions are the team we can knockout - this week is essentially a must win for that to happen

Ports run home is laughable - only 4 games to top 8 teams out of 13..... 3 of which that are at home.

 

[jc12]

have a crack at it and let me know how you go. I had the Dee's dropping to 5th so i accounted for a bit of their fall. Dogs dropping a lot is really questionable too - i think they can keep this up.

Hard to say the Cats are not that good considering how they looked against us, even with Dangerfield missing. With Cameron & Hawkins working far better in tandem than Lynch & Jack, they will at least beat most bottom 8 teams with relative ease.

Swans have the softest run, but you are likely right. That does not change our top 4 hopes at all though. The Lions are the team we can knockout - this week is essentially a must win for that to happen

basically 15 wins i dont think ever has only gotten someone 8th, so it simply wont happen, i think you just had too much of the this team should beat this team thing because of current form, doing ladder predicators when there is over half the season to go is rarely ever accurate, so much can change

even norf were like 10-0 a few years back or something, weagles dropping out of top 4 too last year etc, upsets and twists and turns always happens in our game, so therefore doing a ladder predictator at this point choosing teams that will win based on current form rarely is accurate.

personally i dont really care about the ladder now til about round 15 or so

 

[A Tiger 4 lyf]

We will lose probably 2 of the next 3 & possibly not even be in the 8 heading into the bye


They way we currently play is ******* pathetic

 

[RJK Tiger]

basically 15 wins i dont think ever has only gotten someone 8th, so it simply wont happen, i think you just had too much of the this team should beat this team thing because of current form, doing ladder predicators when there is over half the season to go is rarely ever accurate, so much can change

even norf were like 10-0 a few years back or something, weagles dropping out of top 4 too last year etc, upsets and twists and turns always happens in our game, so therefore doing a ladder predictator at this point choosing teams that will win based on current form rarely is accurate.

personally i dont really care about the ladder now til about round 15 or so

I think you need to see the fixtures mate - its ******* weird to say the least.

Swans & Port only have 3 games out of 13 against top 8 teams - because of that its hard to not see Port finishing top 4. Both Their run home is as easy as ive ever seen.

With the Dogs and Dee's having essentially 4 games on us already (due to percentage) - we need to out perform them by around 50% to pass them - we need them both to go less than 50% for the remainder of the year for that to happen

It leaves Geelong and the Lions as the 2 swing teams for us. If we lose this week its very hard to do that

Cats have only 3 interstate matches left - 2 against good teams.

Lions only play 2 interstate games against top 8 teams currently - a completely undermanned us + the Dee's who yourself said are likely to not win as many games in the 2nd half of the year

The Lions & Port - the 2 teams who got to play all their games at home last year..... got complete and utter ******* gifts to finish the season on. How the * that happened is beyond me

 

[This Is Anfield]

Cool, let’s forfeit the season and get fit for 2022.

 

[RJK Tiger]

Cool, let’s forfeit the season and get fit for 2022.

Nah * it - lets just be the first team to win it from 8th. I reckon we could make ol Gil literally lose his marbles if we did that

 

[jc12]

I think you need to see the fixtures mate - its ******* weird to say the least.

Swans & Port only have 3 games out of 13 against top 8 teams - because of that its hard to not see Port finishing top 4. Both Their run home is as easy as ive ever seen.

With the Dogs and Dee's having essentially 4 games on us already (due to percentage) - we need to out perform them by around 50% to pass them - we need them both to go less than 50% for the remainder of the year for that to happen

It leaves Geelong and the Lions as the 2 swing teams for us. If we lose this week its very hard to do that

Cats have only 3 interstate matches left - 2 against good teams.

Lions only play 2 interstate games against top 8 teams currently - a completely undermanned us + the Dee's who yourself said are likely to not win as many games in the 2nd half of the year

The Lions & Port - the 2 teams who got to play all their games at home last year..... got complete and utter ******* gifts to finish the season on. How the fu** that happened is beyond me

again im thinking you are underestimating the massive twists and turns every season has, these teams that have "gifts" will drop one or two of those gifts it always happens, we dont need to finish 1-2 anyways. we are good enough to win from 3-4, dont forget the scats had some trouble with norf lol, form will swing for every team, so yeah just useless to do ladder predictor now, just focus this week on actually winning

 

[69vintage]

The next 4 weeks there's only 1 game each round where top 8 sides play each other .
Round 14 x2
Rd 15 x3 .
It's a strange draw how it's fallen this year .
Port have had a dream run with home games against top 8 sides .

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[tigs2010]

Congrats on winning the tipping comps

 

[muzhogg]

Nah fu** it - lets just be the first team to win it from 8th. I reckon we could make ol Gil literally lose his marbles if we did that

Not just Gill.

BF servers would melt so hard it would take out the entire building.

 

[HTT]

Picking the favourite for each game isn’t going to give you an accurate win count. If we’re a 51% chance to win each week you’d tip us every time, but we’d only win 51% of the time. Upsets happen, teams lose form. I guarantee if we get 16 wins we will be top 4, 15 wins we’ll get a home final and potentially top 4.

 

[Waca Jr]

Close thread. Utter dross

 

[tigerdan]

We are a game and % away from 3rd place.

Don't forget that geelong can't run out games and as the season drags on that problem will get worse for them.

Sydney have a lot of question marks.

Look we have some question marks too but we are playing well below our starting 22.

Near impossible was making the 8 that year won 9 in a row or whatever it was.

 

[Lsta062]

So out of a bad case of insomnia, i had a play with the Ladder predictor. Basically i found out that, our run home is laughably horrendous compared to the other teams in the 8 & not only is it looking near impossible to make the top 4, Its hard to see us finishing better than 6th, but most likely 8th!

Even with us getting to 15 wins, my predictor had us finishing 8th! wtf!

Basically, our run home is deplorable, while every other team in the top 4 has the softest run you could dream up....

Our run home includes...
View attachment 1130511

The Lions twice including the Gabba
Geelong
Eagles at subi
Giants in Sydney
Dockers at Subi
Suns @ Metricon

5 interstate games in the final 13 - we actually play every interstate team this year away, except Sydney & Adelaide.

I had as doing a very healthy 10 out of 13 - which based on our injuires and the high amount of interstate games and quality opponents, would be a great effort.

Even with that, i had us finishing 8th!
View attachment 1130512



This big issue i had was all the other top 8 teams have real soft runs home, or at least have a nice spread home advantage games against similar quality teams. This is obviously just a predictor, but i would be intrigued to see if anyone else has attempted this and what results you see. I did not do these games with "margins" - so looking at it we really need to make sure we bury some of our crapper opponents to get our percentage higher - and hope teams like Sydney or the Eagles maybe drop a few games they would expect to win.

Its hard to imagine 15 wins only earning you 8th, but looking at the state of the bottom 8 teams, its also hard to imagine any of them getting any real run going to cause any real trouble

This clash against the Lions this week is actually incredibly important - its a swing game for us to make up room on a team which look likely to finish top 4. With 2 games at Subi we really need this one so then we can possibly just split the WA games - its hard to imagine us winning both especially since our record over there against WCE is pretty poor.

The 3 losses i had us were Lions @ Gabba, Eagles @ Perth & Geelong

Our run home isn’t that bad apart from the Brisbane at the Gabba and West Coast in Perth games. In fact, I think it’s one of the easiest runs home from what I know. If we hit form in the second half like we did in the previous years (and get players back from injury), I think going 16-6 is still a possibility. That would be dropping the West Coast and Brisbane games and winning the rest. 16-6 can land us outside of the top 4 still so percentage is important.

I don’t think that 1st - 7th will have a record of 16-6 and better because there are probably going to be some upset losses along the way for teams just like we dropped games that we were probably expected to win. They also still have quite a few games against each other.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

We will lose probably 2 of the next 3 & possibly not even be in the 8 heading into the bye


They way we currently play is ******* pathetic

Geez.Lighten up a bit mate.
We play s**t at this time of the year for a reason.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Did one a few weeks back.Had us finishing 5th.
Playing the cats in the elim.

 

[rfctigerarmy]

Everyone in the top 8 is close enough to WWW
Everyone in the bottom 10 is close enough to LLL

Best

 

[SunshineBoy]

The sky is falling........let’s tank

 

[tigs2010]

Carlton 9th? Yeah right

 

[This Is Anfield]

Geez.Lighten up a bit mate.
We play sh*t at this time of the year for a reason.

Not sure that coming back from 28 points down with a junior midfield is playing s**t, TBH... certainly far from pathetic!

 

[JR#8]

I can't see us losing another game this year so I think top 4 is a lock.

 

[RJK Tiger]

The sky is falling........let’s tank

Im definitely not saying that - i had us going 10 for 13 which would be an excellent run - i reckon my picks have shown i back us to play very well..

The issue is the draw the other teams around us have is literally a walk in a park, except for the 2 teams that have basically built a 4 game lead on us already. We are heavily relying on teams like Roo's Hawks, Suns etc to beat teams like Geelong, Lions etc -

I think the idea we (including me) had about Brisbane this week being a "free hit" though is way off the mark - it will be essential to getting in that top 4 as the Lions are the most gettable to snatch that spot off.

Also, dont discount the tank this year. Teams like the Pies, Hawks, Roos are desperate to finally get top end talent, they have identified they need it badly & will go for it down the stretch if they have not improved

 

[Drunken Wookie]

Close thread. Utter dross

Hey, if it get's people talking it's a win! There's hardly any risky threads out there.