Our Run home - near impossible to finish top 4

[RJK Tiger]

I can't see Port winning all their away games against GC, St Kilda, Hawthorn and GWS. They could easily lose to GC this week. If Brisbane lose to Geelong in 2 weeks they become very vulnerable as we should go level with them if we beat them. They still have games like Freo away and West Coast after that. If we don't slip up we aren't out of it. Just win our next 3 and we will be sitting just outside the top 4. Maybe if the others havn't slipped up we will have to beat Geelong as well. We beat Brisbane and Geelong on our run in last year. We don't seem to be playing as well but with momentum up we can be hard to stop.

I cant see us winning 3 more games that Port & Brisbane over the next 10 weeks. We dont need just "1" to have a bad run, we need both to lose 3 more than us.

Anything is possible - but I wouldn't be putting my money on it, thats for sure

 

[sante]

This is the week someone should make the “This will be our easiest 3peat ever” thread

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

I cant see us winning 3 more games that Port & Brisbane over the next 10 weeks. We dont need just "1" to have a bad run, we need both to lose 3 more than us.

Anything is possible - but I wouldn't be putting my money on it, thats for sure

If we go 9-0, they need to go 8-2 to finish above us
If we go 8-1, they need to go 7-3
If we go 7-2, they need to go 6-4

That suggests top 4 is very likely if we win the remainder of the season. Drop 1 and it's still a good chance. Drop 2 and it's still possible, but very unlikely.

Any worse than that and it's getting very, very tough.

 

[RJK Tiger]

If we go 9-0, they need to go 8-2 to finish above us
If we go 8-1, they need to go 7-3
If we go 7-2, they need to go 6-4

That suggests top 4 is very likely if we win the remainder of the season. Drop 1 and it's still a good chance. Drop 2 and it's still possible, but very unlikely.

Any worse than that and it's getting very, very tough.

I can just keep repeating myself if that helps

Even if we beat Geel & Brisbane - we will end the season 3 out of 9 against the other teams in the top 8. I can't see how anyone thinks that will get you a top 4 spot. You are basically saying that every other team we haven't been able to beat, is going to magically lose games to teams well below them & we are going to go perfect.

You do not deserve to be top 4 with a 33% win-rate against the other finalist, its that simple. Considering we are a team with absolutely zero luck atm, i can't see us getting that "lucky"

The absolute obsession with being "top 4" actually shows more of a lack of faith in the team - it just shows desperation. Top 4 is not that relevant to us winning it - what is more relevant is us getting our s**t together and playing the right brand of footy, & ensuring we get out best players in peak form & physical conditioning. That is how we win it now - not from "Top 4".

 

[JR82]

And we've lost all bar 1, mostly convincingly too

We love a return bout & there are plenty of options this yr. Keep the faith #gotiges!

 

[JR82]

I still reckon we will win it from 5th. Geelong to finish 4th. We win week 1 Geelong lose to Dees, we play Cats week 2 Dogs win week 1 v Lions, we play Dogs in Prelim and Dees in GF.

back2back2back.

Semi is the only Final we haven't beaten GeeLOL in in recent times.....

 

[box070]

I can just keep repeating myself if that helps

Even if we beat Geel & Brisbane - we will end the season 3 out of 9 against the other teams in the top 8. I can't see how anyone thinks that will get you a top 4 spot. You are basically saying that every other team we haven't been able to beat, is going to magically lose games to teams well below them & we are going to go perfect.

You do not deserve to be top 4 with a 33% win-rate against the other finalist, its that simple. Considering we are a team with absolutely zero luck atm, i can't see us getting that "lucky"

The absolute obsession with being "top 4" actually shows more of a lack of faith in the team - it just shows desperation. Top 4 is not that relevant to us winning it - what is more relevant is us getting our sh*t together and playing the right brand of footy, & ensuring we get out best players in peak form & physical conditioning. That is how we win it now - not from "Top 4".

No please don’t keep repeating yourself. Your point is made and other are making contrary. Don’t need to keep repeating

 

[HTT]

I can just keep repeating myself if that helps

Even if we beat Geel & Brisbane - we will end the season 3 out of 9 against the other teams in the top 8. I can't see how anyone thinks that will get you a top 4 spot. You are basically saying that every other team we haven't been able to beat, is going to magically lose games to teams well below them & we are going to go perfect.

You do not deserve to be top 4 with a 33% win-rate against the other finalist, its that simple. Considering we are a team with absolutely zero luck atm, i can't see us getting that "lucky"

The absolute obsession with being "top 4" actually shows more of a lack of faith in the team - it just shows desperation. Top 4 is not that relevant to us winning it - what is more relevant is us getting our sh*t together and playing the right brand of footy, & ensuring we get out best players in peak form & physical conditioning. That is how we win it now - not from "Top 4".

If we win more games or win the same number of games with a higher percentage, we will deserve top 4 and we will get it.

 

[No_Spoke]

This is the crux of it for me.

People have to stop making excuses for them. THIS is the difference. The gameplan is wishy washy & our discipline is not there - 2017 Richmond had way less talent, but they had twice the direction, concentration & discipline of this current team. They were fiiter, harder in the tack, more organised. The differences are all things which come from the structure of your football department.

Our real problem might not be fixable this year. Our problem might not be the things we all thought. Our coaching department was gutted and replaced, re-structured. With is, perhaps we have lost the direction these players needed to be "great". Without it, they are "good" & others (like Georgie, Dan & Kmac) are found out to be exactly what they most likely are in any other teams system....,"average"

Essentially - we are the AFL version of a "Popovic" Spurs team. Players which thrive in a system based structure. Without it, they are average.

2017 Richmond played under different afl rules

 

[Tiger71]

I can just keep repeating myself if that helps

Even if we beat Geel & Brisbane - we will end the season 3 out of 9 against the other teams in the top 8. I can't see how anyone thinks that will get you a top 4 spot. You are basically saying that every other team we haven't been able to beat, is going to magically lose games to teams well below them & we are going to go perfect.

You do not deserve to be top 4 with a 33% win-rate against the other finalist, its that simple. Considering we are a team with absolutely zero luck atm, i can't see us getting that "lucky"

The absolute obsession with being "top 4" actually shows more of a lack of faith in the team - it just shows desperation. Top 4 is not that relevant to us winning it - what is more relevant is us getting our sh*t together and playing the right brand of footy, & ensuring we get out best players in peak form & physical conditioning. That is how we win it now - not from "Top 4".

You should not repeat yourself as you keep bring up a false argument.

You speak about our results against the top 4 sides and how by those performances we are not worthy of a top 4 position. You ignore the fact that in all our meetings against the top 4 we have hardly had a midfield in the side. Take 6 of your best 22 against the best and I would argue those top teams we played would also struggle against a fully fit Richmond. Injuries happen to all sides but for 6-7 weeks we have had them all mainly focused in one are of the ground, to win what we have, with the draw we have is a credit to the side.

As to making top 4 this year, it is still very much alive. We will be hitting round 15 with finally a complete midfield, we also have a few fairly important structure players like Lynch, Nank and Astbury to come back into the side by then.

We also have 2 games against lions and Cats and both of those sides as well as the other 2 equally play against each other.

Top 4 is in our hands. We win 8-1 we make it. We win 7-2 we will have to hope results go our way but will lock in 5th and a home final.

 

[DoItForCaptBlood]

As noted, injuries have played a large part for us this year. And those handbaggers atm are basically at full strength.

Not wishing injuries on anyone, so let's hope we can keep what we've got at least, and get Lunch, Meatball, Astbury, and Nank all back and matchfit for finals. At full strength, obviously we can beat anyone.

Hoping the Cats are at fullstrength but their possession game falls apart in finals pressure (again!!!).

 

[tiger_tough]

Top 4 is in our hands. We win 8-1 we make it. We win 7-2 we will have to hope results go our way but will lock in 5th and a home final.

Think we'll need to win all of them and still have some other results go our way to make top 4 now. We'd really need one of dees cats lions or dogs to s**t the bed from here.

I think 5th or 6th is realistic.

 

[Chunky09]

No matter what happens this season, we’ll be fine long term, a couple of the older guys are done or just about (Houli, astbury)
We have the best draft hand we’ve had in years and we will hopefully be active in the trade period.
To live through what we did, and to have the last 4 years has been nothing short of a dream.
I still feel we can contend for years to come and maybe even this year too!

 

[Tiger71]

Regardless of top 4 or not, you know what is fantastic that separates us from most clubs ? We are actually regenerating/rebuilding our starting 22 while still being a certified contender still. It means this year, however it pans out is actually making sure we keep our window open for a long time.

 

[SleepingGiant]

You should not repeat yourself as you keep bring up a false argument.

You speak about our results against the top 4 sides and how by those performances we are not worthy of a top 4 position. You ignore the fact that in all our meetings against the top 4 we have hardly had a midfield in the side. Take 6 of your best 22 against the best and I would argue those top teams we played would also struggle against a fully fit Richmond. Injuries happen to all sides but for 6-7 weeks we have had them all mainly focused in one are of the ground, to win what we have, with the draw we have is a credit to the side.

As to making top 4 this year, it is still very much alive. We will be hitting round 15 with finally a complete midfield, we also have a few fairly important structure players like Lynch, Nank and Astbury to come back into the side by then.

We also have 2 games against lions and Cats and both of those sides as well as the other 2 equally play against each other.

Top 4 is in our hands. We win 8-1 we make it. We win 7-2 we will have to hope results go our way but will lock in 5th and a home final.

Okay I take my ranting back. We do need to step it up a gear though as I thought we were disappointing on the weekend for the outs we had compared to WCE. They were missing big names and so we need to get better, more disciplined, and I think CCJ will be our Balta this year if we find a way to fit him in watch out with three talls.

 

[SleepingGiant]

Regardless of top 4 or not, you know what is fantastic that separates us from most clubs ? We are actually regenerating/rebuilding our starting 22 while still being a certified contender still. It means this year, however it pans out is actually making sure we keep our window open for a long time.

I agree, we do need to hit the draft hard this year and trade into the top 10 I think. You can't replace Martin, Cotchin, Edwards, Riewoldt quality players easily outside the top 20 very easily. If we win it this year and somehow have a bidding war on Chol/Bolton if the offer was too good to refuse you would have to consider it. Same with CCJ if the offer came in with a top 10 pick you would jump at it as you can always buy a FA Lynch later on again when the King brothers are ready to roll.

 

[Tiger71]

Okay I take my ranting back. We do need to step it up a gear though as I thought we were disappointing on the weekend for the outs we had compared to WCE. They were missing big names and so we need to get better, more disciplined, and I think CCJ will be our Balta this year if we find a way to fit him in watch out with three talls.

They were missing there main forward, main ruck, best mid and important defender? Yes they had injuries but we were missing main structure players in Lynch, nank, and prestia.

 

[box070]

They were missing there main forward, main ruck, best mid and important defender? Yes they had injuries but we were missing main structure players in Lynch, nank, and prestia.

take nic nat, JK and Yeo out of the Eagles, put Prestia Lynch and Nank in for us for a fairer comparison

 

[This Is Anfield]

I can just keep repeating myself if that helps

Even if we beat Geel & Brisbane - we will end the season 3 out of 9 against the other teams in the top 8. I can't see how anyone thinks that will get you a top 4 spot. You are basically saying that every other team we haven't been able to beat, is going to magically lose games to teams well below them & we are going to go perfect.

You do not deserve to be top 4 with a 33% win-rate against the other finalist, its that simple. Considering we are a team with absolutely zero luck atm, i can't see us getting that "lucky"

The absolute obsession with being "top 4" actually shows more of a lack of faith in the team - it just shows desperation. Top 4 is not that relevant to us winning it - what is more relevant is us getting our sh*t together and playing the right brand of footy, & ensuring we get out best players in peak form & physical conditioning. That is how we win it now - not from "Top 4".

Ahem, discussion about making the top four in this thread is because the OP, you, made the thread about making the top four.

 

[dean33]

I reckon we just ran out of juice. Our little blokes got tired, but their big blokes didn’t get any littler.

Three weeks ago when we got shifted to Sydney, if anyone here was offered two 5 goal wins and a 3pt loss to West Coast, most would’ve taken it.

We most definitely ran out of gas. The club was very worried about the toll being on the road the last 3 weeks would have on both the players and staff and it showed when we just ran out of legs unfortunately. The players were very disappointed however there is a belief that we aren’t far away from hitting our best form.

 

[Tiger71]

We most definitely ran out of gas. The club was very worried about the toll being on the road the last 3 weeks would have on both the players and staff and it showed when we just ran out of legs unfortunately. The players were very disappointed however there is a belief that we aren’t far away from hitting our best form.

We played 4 weeks on the road, a hole month. The cats were so concerned doing more then a couple they wanted the dogs game at home. To brake even, considering we played the lions with no midfield and the really strange 23-6 first half, the club and players did really well

 

[JR82]

As noted, injuries have played a large part for us this year. And those handbaggers atm are basically at full strength.

Not wishing injuries on anyone, so let's hope we can keep what we've got at least, and get Lunch, Meatball, Astbury, and Nank all back and matchfit for finals. At full strength, obviously we can beat anyone.

Hoping the Cats are at fullstrength but their possession game falls apart in finals pressure (again!!!).

Sure cats are flying atm but it's the half way mark, Finals start in 2.5 mths time from now & we all know what happens to them when the heat is on, Rohan will s**t the bed again for 1.

 

[RJK Tiger]

Ahem, discussion about making the top four in this thread is because the OP, you, made the thread about making the top four.

Yeah & the point i made in that OP - it wont ******* matter. If we get our s**t together, we will win it from 8th if need be - IF we get our s**t together. That is literally what i said.

Our injuries have played a part, but them are the breaks. No amount of those players coming back will change the 1-6 record we have against the other top 8 teams. There is no "injury" consideration with the ladder mate - it just goes based on the wins, losses and your percentage.

To be perfectly honest i think the main difference here is many of you are estimating this stuff with your heart and not using your head. If you are doing your predictions on North Melbourne beating the Cats or some s**t - then your havin' a laugh. Even if i re-do the the predictor accounting for some funky losses and teams like the Dogs & Dee's winning all their clashes against Cats, Lions, Power (unlikely) - we still end up in a 4 way tie on 3rd to 6th. This is taking into account a very lucky run of results for us and unlucky for other teams. This is based on us not losing another match. It would mean for us to get up to 4th, we will need to get at least 2 or 3 10+goal wins and win most games by 20 points - while none of those other teams above us do the same & maybe get a couple of losses.

For certain teams to lose, it does mean others like the Eagles have to win. That then bumps them up the ladder. Unless we are expecting the bottom 8 to start beating every other top 6 team, except us - then ok, you go bet your house on that if you believe in it so much

We are not just relying on winning every game and other teams who have proven themselves to be far more consistent & "switched on" losing a few unexpected ones - but we are also relying on us all of a sudden thrashing teams, which is something we haven't looked like doing once except for the Saints match. Its just very hard to logically believe that this sort of series of events will unfold for us. Not just in one year, but pretty much 3 years in a row. Eventually, your luck runs out

 

[RJK Tiger]

Sure cats are flying atm but it's the half way mark, Finals start in 2.5 mths time from now & we all know what happens to them when the heat is on, Rohan will sh*t the bed again for 1.

OK.

Dangerfield is back this week btw, he has been out for about 6 weeks all up.

Lachie Neale will be a fair bit better too for having the week off after his 1 game back from injury.

I really cant logically say i expect either of those 2 teams to be worse over the 2nd half of the year when they have arguably been missing their best players for the first half of the year. They surely get a bit better with those 2 guys in their team, yeah?

 

[JR82]

OK.

Dangerfield is back this week btw, he has been out for about 6 weeks all up.

Lachie Neale will be a fair bit better too for having the week off after his 1 game back from injury.

I really cant logically say i expect either of those 2 teams to be worse over the 2nd half of the year when they have arguably been missing their best players for the first half of the year. They surely get a bit better with those 2 guys in their team, yeah?

Of course they do, among all the facts u post about our season, u didn't mention that those previous seasons have started the same, in none of our flag yrs did we look like the premier at the half way mark, not even close, the 1 yr we did was in '18, we were all certain by this time in '18 the Flag was ours for the taking & we all know how that turned out. We don't even prioritise anything before the bye as that is when we start our build. As good as the top sides have been, how will they be going at the business end compared to what our best can be, which is when we plan to bring our best? A lot of the top sides have been early flyers & will need to hold thier form for a long time now to win it. If we can get back to our best at the business end good luck to them, they'll need every bit of it.
1 thing our Coaching staff have been exceptional at is seeing what the early flyers are doing & working out a plan to bring it undone, then dismantling them in the Finals, it's been a massive strength of ours. Nobody at this point will be studying us except the sides who are about to play us. Even Bris/Gee will be focusing on the other sides they play which are fellow contenders, Dimma & Co. will be tinkering with our style as we speak based on what our oppo are doing with a focus on beating it. Sure top 4 will be difficult but it's still possible & the form at the end of the season will be the key. The Premiers are often the side that starts thier peak at rd 18-20 each yr & that's still a month away yet. We also love a return bout & there's plenty of options for those this yr. There's a long way to go as yet. #gotiges!