Our Run home - near impossible to finish top 4

[sante]

We will lose probably 2 of the next 3 & possibly not even be in the 8 heading into the bye


They way we currently play is ******* pathetic

Not as pathetic as your posts lately

 

[sante]

100% predict your predictions will be wrong.

 

[Tiger Toffee]

OP has Carlton going 9-4 for the rest of the year

 

[Drunken Wookie]

Without putting any actual effort into it I predict Dees will freefall after the bye. It's just what they do. Doggies will limp home, already showing signs of fatigue. Swans and Eagles every chance to drop a lot of winnable games, haven't made their home grounds a fortress this year. Port are actually s**t and Kochie is a knob so they're out. We will go on a romping winning spree as soon as we get Prestia and Cotch back in, not to mention Lambo and Edwards. Fresh legs everywhere. The year is panning out beautifully imo.

 

[Marcel Proust]

A few teams might be nervous playing Richmond in a final. Especially a Victorian side in Melbourne

 

[BF Tiger]

I love it!

Hopefully we "lose" the last game to finish 8th, avoiding Sydney in Sydney or West Coast in Perth, and play a tired and ragged Melbourne... at the MCG.

Then Brisbane upset the Bulldogs, so in week 2 we play the Bulldogs... at the MCG.

Of course Geelong beat Port in week 1, so in the prelim we get to beat Geelong (again)... at the MCG.

Brisbane by this stage have cruised through their prelim in Brisbane. Their reward... they get to lose to Richmond in the GF... at the MCG.

Let the salt flow, let us hear about unearned home finals, let us welcome talk of asterisks, let us not care.

 

[Grechy]

We will lose probably 2 of the next 3 & possibly not even be in the 8 heading into the bye


They way we currently play is ******* pathetic

We aren't in great form but gee we just beat a Giants team who had a mature seasoned midfield with mostly kids. Go easy.

 

[tigs2010]

OP has Carlton going 9-4 for the rest of the year

 

[Makeshft_Mauler]

Week 1
Final at the MCG vs Melbourne

Week 2
Either final at the MCG vs the dogs, or At our second home ground the Gabba vs Brisvegas

Week 3
Either final at Radelaide against the pretenders, or at the G vs Geetroit

Week 4
Grand final at the G vs either the dogs, or Brisvegas


we could actually just play 4 finals at the G, or play at our second home ground, or against the pretenders


sheesh maybe loungelizard is right

this really is going to be the easiest back2back2back ever.

 

[G String]

Lots of twists and turns to come yet. Its looking a lot like 2019 to me.

We just need to scrap 1-2 Ws before the bye and then I'm hoping we get our s**t together after the bye. A few teams in the top 8 will drop off, there'll be upsets - if we can finish with 15 wins and finish anywhere from 3rd to 6th I'd be pretty confident of a prelim at least.

The difference Bolton, Edwards, Cotch, Lambert and Prestia make to our midfield will be immense - if we can drip feed them back into the team and in the mean time get some games into the kids - then thats the perfect scenario I reckon

 

[Lynchy04]

I did it and had us at 3rd

Bulldogs
Melbourne
Tigers
Cats
Port
Lions
Eagles
Swans

 

[Tiger Toffee]

We have Brisbane, Adelaide and Essendon leading into the bye.

We will be 7-5 worst case and pretty much have a full squad available after the bye.

Hmmm where have i seen this playbook before

 

[tigers_of_old_08]

I can't see us losing another game this year so I think top 4 is a lock.

Much better.

 

[Coach_Required]

So out of a bad case of insomnia, i had a play with the Ladder predictor. Basically i found out that, our run home is laughably horrendous compared to the other teams in the 8 & not only is it looking near impossible to make the top 4, Its hard to see us finishing better than 6th, but most likely 8th!

Even with us getting to 15 wins, my predictor had us finishing 8th! wtf!

Basically, our run home is deplorable, while every other team in the top 4 has the softest run you could dream up....

Our run home includes...
View attachment 1130511

The Lions twice including the Gabba
Geelong
Eagles at subi
Giants in Sydney
Dockers at Subi
Suns @ Metricon

5 interstate games in the final 13 - we actually play every interstate team this year away, except Sydney & Adelaide.

I had as doing a very healthy 10 out of 13 - which based on our injuires and the high amount of interstate games and quality opponents, would be a great effort.

Even with that, i had us finishing 8th!
View attachment 1130512



This big issue i had was all the other top 8 teams have real soft runs home, or at least have a nice spread home advantage games against similar quality teams. This is obviously just a predictor, but i would be intrigued to see if anyone else has attempted this and what results you see. I did not do these games with "margins" - so looking at it we really need to make sure we bury some of our crapper opponents to get our percentage higher - and hope teams like Sydney or the Eagles maybe drop a few games they would expect to win.

Its hard to imagine 15 wins only earning you 8th, but looking at the state of the bottom 8 teams, its also hard to imagine any of them getting any real run going to cause any real trouble

This clash against the Lions this week is actually incredibly important - its a swing game for us to make up room on a team which look likely to finish top 4. With 2 games at Subi we really need this one so then we can possibly just split the WA games - its hard to imagine us winning both especially since our record over there against WCE is pretty poor.

The 3 losses i had us were Lions @ Gabba, Eagles @ Perth & Geelong

You know what as long as West Coast finish 6th or 7th then I'm happy with 8th, means we don't have to play the flat track bullies on their own dung heap.

My only concern with your ladder is Port finishing 2nd, hopefully they don't, a more than likely home prelim for them would be hard to beat. I'd rather see Dogs & Dees finish top 2, would make our charge for 3 in a row easier.

FWIW this is how I see the ladder finishing up, so we might not make it past week 1.

 

[beema limapep]

I did it conservatively and had us on 15 wins in 4th.

The only games we dont win are Bris, WC and Geelong away. Every other game we should start favourite or thereabouts.

Thats assuming none of the other top 7 drop unexpected games to the bottom 10 (which will happen).

Top 4 is probably a 60/40 proposition.

 

[RJK Tiger]

The issue is more that i think this year we seem to have a very clear top 8 and bottom 8. Saw the same thing in the NBA this year

Our run home isn’t that bad apart from the Brisbane at the Gabba and West Coast in Perth games. In fact, I think it’s one of the easiest runs home from what I know. If we hit form in the second half like we did in the previous years (and get players back from injury), I think going 16-6 is still a possibility. That would be dropping the West Coast and Brisbane games and winning the rest. 16-6 can land us outside of the top 4 still so percentage is important.

I don’t think that 1st - 7th will have a record of 16-6 and better because there are probably going to be some upset losses along the way for teams just like we dropped games that we were probably expected to win. They also still have quite a few games against each other.

Its more the 5 interstate games. Its the most in the league from what i can see - 2 trips to subi in there. That can take a toll. As much as we are counting on other teams dropping winnable games, with our run we need to expect we could fall victim to the same

draw is ****ed. how the * did Brisbane and Port get such soft draws after finishing top 4?

 

[RJK Tiger]

to be honest i didnt put a whole lot of effort into the bottom 8 teams as they are not relevant. The top 8 will be the teams that are in it at the moment, mark it down

 

[RJK Tiger]

I did it and had us at 3rd

Bulldogs
Melbourne
Tigers
Cats
Port
Lions
Eagles
Swans

you must not rate Port & the Lions if you have them that low with 3/4 home games remaining

Its all guess-work, but the post was more an excuse to get people looking at the fixture as it will play a much bigger role into our chances than we probably realised - with Port and Brisbane dream run + the good head start the Doggies and Dee;s have , our games against the Lions(twice) & the Cats will make or break our chances - we need to go at least 2 of 3 there & then win everything else, bar maybe the Eagles away game. Any less than that and i just dont think top 4 is possible based on that fixture

it's not that we can;t do it - we can - but we are relying on a few other teams to trip over for it to happen

 

[CASEYS9420]

Funnily enough it was the GSW game last year in R8 that our season turned the corner for the better and we lost that game, yes we're off the pace this year but its a 5 game longer season. If we can pinch either this Lions game or WC in three weeks (as long as we beat Ade & Ess) we're well on track for a Top 4 finish.

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

There is nothing wrong with our run home.

 

[banzai]

How can you say we have a tough run home? After this week 9 games against rubbish, 1 hard game against West Coast and 2 games at the G against Brisy and Geelong. If we cant beat Brisy and Geelong at the G in the second half of the year then we just aren't a top 4 team and its got nothing to do with the fixture. Freo and GWS should be out on contention by the time we go there and Gold Coast are a basketcase. It's a perfect run home if we are good enough.

 

[HTT]

I did it and had us at 3rd

Bulldogs
Melbourne
Tigers
Cats
Port
Lions
Eagles
Swans

Prelim vs cats best

 

[Infamy]

Prelim vs cats best

For the sake of their 1st round pick, hopefully they don't make it that far

 

[Rayzorwire]

"Near impossible" is what we've done every flag, none more than last year.

 

[Sterge]

There is nothing wrong with our run home.

Exactly this, the only difficult games are lions away, Eagles away and Geelong.

5 of the last 8 at the G as well