Analysis Our weakpoints

[Hardas]

Telling us what we already knew, I suspect:

KEY STAT LEAGUE RANK
Kicking efficiency 64.1% 16th

Defensive 50 to score % 8.1% 16th

Centre bounce clearance differential -2.6 18th

SUMMARY
The Magpies lost six games by 12 points or fewer in 2015 and part of that can be attributed to their lack of efficiency with ball in hand late in close games.
Coach Nathan Buckley told fans at a recent members forum that he wants his team to be the best transition side in the competition. Already this pre-season, Collingwood has had a significant emphasis on moving the ball swiftly, with precision, from defence.
The continued development of young ruckmen Brodie Grundy and Jarrod Witts will balance out the fact the Magpies are last in the competition in the centre-bounce clearance differential category.
– Ben Guthrie

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-01-09/the-bad-stat-where-your-club-struggled-in-2015

What changes do we need to make to improve in these areas?

How much of it is just having so much youth?

 

[McCrabblett]

If we can keep them healthy, I think our midfield will be a little better on clearances this season. This is not a new problem, and we suffered from the loss of Beams (who was one of our consistent highest clearance players) and his likely inside replacement went down for most of the season.

Other than Adams and Greenwood we can be a little exposed there though.

Kicking efficiency I can't see more than incremental improvement, and likewise in transition from defence. Losing Scharanberg is a mortal blow there, and we may see Aish down back simply for his disposal and run.

 

[Hardas]

If we can keep them healthy, I think our midfield will be a little better on clearances this season. This is not a new problem, and we suffered from the loss of Beams (who was one of our consistent highest clearance players) and his likely inside replacement went down for most of the season.
Other than Adams and Greenwood we can be a little exposed there though.
Kicking efficiency I can't see more than incremental improvement, and likewise in transition from defence. Losing Scharanberg is a mortal blow there, and we may see Aish down back simply for his disposal and run.

Yeah, as I mentioned in another thread, I'd like to see some rotation of Aish, Varcoe and perhaps Phillips, if he's ready, going through the half back line during the NAB.

 

[Hardas]

A full season out of Greenwood, as well as continued natural development from Adams, De Goey and Grundy/Witts should help with centre clearances.

 

[THATSGOLD]

Players not listening to team rules and following the game plan is our biggest weak point.. Whatever our game plan is? It will be interesting to see if Buckley has come up with a new game plan that works in 16.

 

[jjsmitty8]

I'd hate to break it to anyone who is expecting a grand overhaul of our game style, it won't happen. Coaches don't spend years moulding a list and developing a game style to just go "well, **** it, it didn't work, let's start fresh."

 

[Gone Critical]

If we can keep them healthy, I think our midfield will be a little better on clearances this season. This is not a new problem, and we suffered from the loss of Beams (who was one of our consistent highest clearance players) and his likely inside replacement went down for most of the season.

Other than Adams and Greenwood we can be a little exposed there though.

Kicking efficiency I can't see more than incremental improvement, and likewise in transition from defence. Losing Scharanberg is a mortal blow there, and we may see Aish down back simply for his disposal and run.

Agree our maturing centre square set up should naturally see an improvement in clearances. In addition this should also relieve some pressure on our exits from back 50 which should improve.

Terrible to lose Shaz as 2016 would have been a good development season for him and one he hopefully established a spot in our best 22. Still it's not a mortal blow, he hadn't yet become an established player so can't be a mortal blow.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Our weakpoints are so last year

 

[Knightmare]

Telling us what we already knew, I suspect:

KEY STAT LEAGUE RANK
Kicking efficiency 64.1% 16th

Defensive 50 to score % 8.1% 16th

Centre bounce clearance differential -2.6 18th

SUMMARY
The Magpies lost six games by 12 points or fewer in 2015 and part of that can be attributed to their lack of efficiency with ball in hand late in close games.
Coach Nathan Buckley told fans at a recent members forum that he wants his team to be the best transition side in the competition. Already this pre-season, Collingwood has had a significant emphasis on moving the ball swiftly, with precision, from defence.
The continued development of young ruckmen Brodie Grundy and Jarrod Witts will balance out the fact the Magpies are last in the competition in the centre-bounce clearance differential category.
– Ben Guthrie

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-01-09/the-bad-stat-where-your-club-struggled-in-2015

What changes do we need to make to improve in these areas?

How much of it is just having so much youth?

Kicking efficiency and defensive 50 to score % is very heavily based on personnel.

From the defensive 50 we lack the rebounders/kicks to set up anything. Brown and Frost are both stoppers only and won't offer any rebound. Toovey is a stopper only and Goldsack similarly isn't a rebounder. Ramsay same story as another reluctant rebounder. Sinclair and Williams while willing run and carry players are both are poor kicks and similarly with Marsh it's the same story where while much improved by foot certainly isn't good by foot yet. Varcoe was used back enough last season and didn't provide run and carry or long kicks. Oxley is a reliable kick but not super penetrating and not a run and carry threat. Langdon is not a run and carry threat and only a medium penetration kick, with some slight reliability issues. So there isn't going to be much that can change our fortunes here, particularly with Seedsman traded and Scharenberg out for the season again. Reid may play back and is certainly an upgrade on Frost as a rebounder if he does. Aish may play back and help slightly though not greatly. Maynard can penetrate by foot so he may slightly help.

In terms of overall kicking efficiency that is something with alternative selection choices that can be better. Treloar, Aish and Howe are all fine be foot. Maynard can get more games, De Goey same, Moore same. And they're all fine. Broomhead hopefully can play a whole season and Phillips is good enough in my view to play and they both can kick and add some class. So we can improve if we start to transition some of those younger guys into our team.

Centre bounce differential can improve quite significantly if we put in the work to improve there. Grundy, Witts and Cox are a year older and will have another preseason in them, so that's a starting point. Then we've added Treloar, Greenwood if he is healthy is another mid who can make a different through there and De Goey can add something at stoppages as soon as this coming season. So the pieces are really there to significantly turn around our fortunes at centre bounces.

One further element not listed in this article that we will have featured poorly in is hitting inside 50m targets with our entries. And this along with centre bounces and kicking efficiency can improve if we pick the correct personnel. Broomhead and Fasolo can really hit inside 50m targets if used as playmakers up on forward flanks and Tom Phillips as a new draftee is another with the ability to further help with this. Maybe Pendlebury gets some minutes at some point on a forward flank if these guys aren't getting the job done in a particular match. So there are now some really good options here.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Thats what I said Knighmare.....but in six words!

Available personnel is everything.

Add to the line up Aish Howe Treloar Reid Greenwood
And to a lesser extent add Maccaffer Ramsay Broomhead
And add a years experience to a young list

And lose nobody of note except we'll have to wait a bit longer for Scharenburg

 

[Robroy22]

I hate to over simplify but our main point of weakness is our rucks. Look at the good sides, you'll see a good to dominant ruckman. It's no coincidence that we've slipped back in all respects since Jolly was retired. The game starts in the middle, every few minutes it returns there and in between times there are stoppages manufactured by defensive structures that favour the big strong bodied rucks like Mumford, McEvoy or Goldstein. If you look at premiership sides over the years you'll find the ones that dominated had great BIG rucks. Charman and Keating, Ottens, Lee, Monkhurst, Madden, Jolly (at two clubs) Polly Farmer, Nicholls....it's a pre-curser to success. Get a dominant ruckman or pair of rucks and you can win a flag. The fact that North made a PF last year is all due to Goldstein....thats how far a dominant ruckman can take a side.
Since Jolly left we've wobbled along with our pair of baby rucks and they just get smashed at centre bounces. So much so that even great midfielders like Pendles, Swanny and Beams couldn't compete with other mids and had resort to "roving to the opposition rucks". Being the 18th side in centre clearances exemplifies our predicament.
A midfielder of Buckley's caliber ( and Robert Harvey, Scotty Burns etc...) knows the importance of strong rucks so I can only presume that they have undergone this long drawn out ( and some might say painful )process of "blooding" our young rucks and getting game time and pre seasons into them so that their development coincides with the renewal and regeneration of the club over all.

When one of (or hopefully all of ) Grundy, Witts, Cox become dominant centre bounce ruckmen then everything else will flow. Winning centre clearances puts oppositions on the back foot and makes defending a lot easier. It also gives our forwards the ability to lead into space because we have the initiative from a centre clearance.

Its our biggest weakness. If it gets solved this year we can look forward to a lot more success.
We NEED a DOMINANT RUCKMAN.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

I hate to over simplify but our main point of weakness is our rucks. Look at the good sides, you'll see a good to dominant ruckman. It's no coincidence that we've slipped back in all respects since Jolly was retired. The game starts in the middle, every few minutes it returns there and in between times there are stoppages manufactured by defensive structures that favour the big strong bodied rucks like Mumford, McEvoy or Goldstein. If you look at premiership sides over the years you'll find the ones that dominated had great BIG rucks. Charman and Keating, Ottens, Lee, Monkhurst, Madden, Jolly (at two clubs) Polly Farmer, Nicholls....it's a pre-curser to success. Get a dominant ruckman or pair of rucks and you can win a flag. The fact that North made a PF last year is all due to Goldstein....thats how far a dominant ruckman can take a side.
Since Jolly left we've wobbled along with our pair of baby rucks and they just get smashed at centre bounces. So much so that even great midfielders like Pendles, Swanny and Beams couldn't compete with other mids and had resort to "roving to the opposition rucks". Being the 18th side in centre clearances exemplifies our predicament.
A midfielder of Buckley's caliber ( and Robert Harvey, Scotty Burns etc...) knows the importance of strong rucks so I can only presume that they have undergone this long drawn out ( and some might say painful )process of "blooding" our young rucks and getting game time and pre seasons into them so that their development coincides with the renewal and regeneration of the club over all.

When one of (or hopefully all of ) Grundy, Witts, Cox become dominant centre bounce ruckmen then everything else will flow. Winning centre clearances puts oppositions on the back foot and makes defending a lot easier. It also gives our forwards the ability to lead into space because we have the initiative from a centre clearance.

Its our biggest weakness. If it gets solved this year we can look forward to a lot more success.
We NEED a DOMINANT RUCKMAN.

Covered in my point three above

 

[Robroy22]

Don't think a years experience can be counted on to get them there though....Rucks need to be fearless buggers.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

A full season out of Greenwood, as well as continued natural development from Adams, De Goey and Grundy/Witts should help with centre clearances.

Greenwood going all year, important.
Hardas, he reminds me of your avatar, tough at the ball.

De agony will continue being a beast at contested contests, that will continue our trend up, I'm sure.
Though its up to them to do it ofcourse.

 

[TradeDraft]

Thats what I said Knighmare.....but in six words!

Available personnel is everything.

Add to the line up Aish Howe Treloar Reid Greenwood
And to a lesser extent add Maccaffer Ramsay Broomhead
And add a years experience to a young list

And lose nobody of note except we'll have to wait a bit longer for Scharenburg

Why less Broomhead when he is 1 of our most Classiest Players?

 

[Vicky Park]

A midfielder of Buckley's caliber ( and Robert Harvey, Scotty Burns etc...) knows the importance of strong rucks so I can only presume that they have undergone this long drawn out ( and some might say painful )process of "blooding" our young rucks and getting game time and pre seasons into them so that their development coincides with the renewal and regeneration of the club over all.

It has been very painful. 100% agree with this - our rucks must start getting on top more often this year. We are building a top line midfield, but it will not work at a high level of efficiency without this. For me the jury is also still out on Grundy versus Witts, and whether we can play both of them in the team.

 

[Lockyer24]

With Shaz going down, Maynard developing and Reid staying fit is our only hope with ball use out of D50. Unless we can get a Sidey or Aish type to have a ripper year as a quarterback.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I'd hate to break it to anyone who is expecting a grand overhaul of our game style, it won't happen. Coaches don't spend years moulding a list and developing a game style to just go "well, **** it, it didn't work, let's start fresh."

Truth in that yes.

But in breaking news, if we start winning regularly no mid season fade out, then magically game plan is working.

 

[Robroy22]

It has been very painful. 100% agree with this - our rucks must start getting on top more often this year. We are building a top line midfield, but it will not work at a high level of efficiency without this. For me the jury is also still out on Grundy versus Witts, and whether we can play both of them in the team.

What I wouldn't give for a Charlie Manson right about now.
His attitude would teach our baby rucks just how "crazy" they have to get themselves to compete in the "smashathon" that is ruckwork in the 2016's.

 

[Robroy22]

Truth in that yes.

But in breaking news, if we start winning regularly no mid season fade out, then magically game plan is working.

The game plan will work a lot better if we have a dominant ruck

 

[Vicky Park]

What I wouldn't give for a Charlie Manson right about now.
His attitude would teach our baby rucks just how "crazy" they have to get themselves to compete in the "smashathon" that is ruckwork in the 2016's.

Would you say that Grundy has shown more liking for the 'smashathon' than Wittsy?

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Kicking efficiency and defensive 50 to score % is very heavily based on personnel.

From the defensive 50 we lack the rebounders/kicks to set up anything. Brown and Frost are both stoppers only and won't offer any rebound. Toovey is a stopper only and Goldsack similarly isn't a rebounder. Ramsay same story as another reluctant rebounder. Sinclair and Williams while willing run and carry players are both are poor kicks and similarly with Marsh it's the same story where while much improved by foot certainly isn't good by foot yet. Varcoe was used back enough last season and didn't provide run and carry or long kicks. Oxley is a reliable kick but not super penetrating and not a run and carry threat. Langdon is not a run and carry threat and only a medium penetration kick, with some slight reliability issues. So there isn't going to be much that can change our fortunes here, particularly with Seedsman traded and Scharenberg out for the season again. Reid may play back and is certainly an upgrade on Frost as a rebounder if he does. Aish may play back and help slightly though not greatly. Maynard can penetrate by foot so he may slightly help.

In terms of overall kicking efficiency that is something with alternative selection choices that can be better. Treloar, Aish and Howe are all fine be foot. Maynard can get more games, De Goey same, Moore same. And they're all fine. Broomhead hopefully can play a whole season and Phillips is good enough in my view to play and they both can kick and add some class. So we can improve if we start to transition some of those younger guys into our team.

Centre bounce differential can improve quite significantly if we put in the work to improve there. Grundy, Witts and Cox are a year older and will have another preseason in them, so that's a starting point. Then we've added Treloar, Greenwood if he is healthy is another mid who can make a different through there and De Goey can add something at stoppages as soon as this coming season. So the pieces are really there to significantly turn around our fortunes at centre bounces.

One further element not listed in this article that we will have featured poorly in is hitting inside 50m targets with our entries. And this along with centre bounces and kicking efficiency can improve if we pick the correct personnel. Broomhead and Fasolo can really hit inside 50m targets if used as playmakers up on forward flanks and Tom Phillips as a new draftee is another with the ability to further help with this. Maybe Pendlebury gets some minutes at some point on a forward flank if these guys aren't getting the job done in a particular match. So there are now some really good options here.

You may not realise but when Phillips gets his chance, and I assume does well, he should be nicknamed night mare, because he will be to opponents and you were his first big supporter even pre draft before we got him. Now that's some insight into Phillips.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Why less Broomhead when he is 1 of our most Classiest Players?

Only because hes less proven at this stage. Adding the others to the list will have a greater impact than him, short term at least

 

[Robroy22]

Would you say that Grundy has shown more liking for the 'smashathon' than Wittsy?

Early on yes...but whoever is "coaching" Grunds is getting him to "protect himself" at centre bounces rather than simply jumping into the opposition ruckman. Its a defensive mindset that tries to halve the contest. I want to see Grunds pawing the ground, chomping at the bit and screaming at his opposition about how much he's going to hurt them (sorry thats going back to Charlie again) and then running in and sticking his knee right into his opponents chest before tapping the ball to our midfielders. In 2012 he did it once or twice before his opponents got sick of the young upstart and left him flat on his back in the centre of the ground!
Wittsy is a different ruckman because he hardly jumps. He's like Sandilands but he hasn't got the 125Kg's that Sandi's got to keep opponents out of his space.
Competitively Grundy had it all over Witts early but since Bucks confronted Wittsy on the boundary line Witts has been far more combative. Remains to see how he'll go after his injuries last year.
The sleeper for me is Cox. I know people say he comes from a non-combative sport (basketball) but he has the jump and the athleticism to out reach anyone currently playing at AFL level. If he can be taught how to turn his body in mid air so as to protect his arms from blocking, he could be revolutionary at centre bounces.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I hate to over simplify but our main point of weakness is our rucks. Look at the good sides, you'll see a good to dominant ruckman. It's no coincidence that we've slipped back in all respects since Jolly was retired. The game starts in the middle, every few minutes it returns there and in between times there are stoppages manufactured by defensive structures that favour the big strong bodied rucks like Mumford, McEvoy or Goldstein. If you look at premiership sides over the years you'll find the ones that dominated had great BIG rucks. Charman and Keating, Ottens, Lee, Monkhurst, Madden, Jolly (at two clubs) Polly Farmer, Nicholls....it's a pre-curser to success. Get a dominant ruckman or pair of rucks and you can win a flag. The fact that North made a PF last year is all due to Goldstein....thats how far a dominant ruckman can take a side.
Since Jolly left we've wobbled along with our pair of baby rucks and they just get smashed at centre bounces. So much so that even great midfielders like Pendles, Swanny and Beams couldn't compete with other mids and had resort to "roving to the opposition rucks". Being the 18th side in centre clearances exemplifies our predicament.
A midfielder of Buckley's caliber ( and Robert Harvey, Scotty Burns etc...) knows the importance of strong rucks so I can only presume that they have undergone this long drawn out ( and some might say painful )process of "blooding" our young rucks and getting game time and pre seasons into them so that their development coincides with the renewal and regeneration of the club over all.

When one of (or hopefully all of ) Grundy, Witts, Cox become dominant centre bounce ruckmen then everything else will flow. Winning centre clearances puts oppositions on the back foot and makes defending a lot easier. It also gives our forwards the ability to lead into space because we have the initiative from a centre clearance.

Its our biggest weakness. If it gets solved this year we can look forward to a lot more success.
We NEED a DOMINANT RUCKMAN.

On the whole thing excellent points raised.
All sides need the big boys and good big boys.

That's why I bang on about cox, err, Witts and Grundy and not to readily give away our big Fellowes (not wes, he was always welcome to pack up and go, just an aside) in trades or swaps with other clubs unless it's the mother of all deals.
The matter raised in your post is, we do have what we require, but we are awaiting their natural maturity which takes time as Goldstein took a few years as did that redwood tree in Freo.
And we will have three redwood Giants to choose from. Happy days (not the Fonze w w w rrrr oooo ng)

Only issue I slightly feel is not correct is McEvoy, I think he's an average value conveyance and no improvement is likely. He's ok, but just ok.

In fact I am positive if we said to hawthorn today for this season only
We will take Hale (after defrosting him for another year, groan) McEvoy, and tunnel ball star Jack Fitzpatrick and Ceglar (giggle) and you take Grundy, Witts, Cox (that's 4 for 3) they would so quickly swap we wouldn't get out the door and they'd have the contracts done.