Opinion Out of all these young guys, who will make it?

[rustycrate]

Armerty, bell and ling won’t imo

Agree with the first 2. Ling has not had a chance because our back 6 is to strong.

 

[Punts]

Agree with the first 2. Ling has not had a chance because our back 6 is to strong.

Only 1 year contract so better hurry up

 

[caesar88]

Since this thread started we have recruited quite a lot of quality. Almost all of our youngsters have the capability to play a lot of games.
Dawson, Florent, Hayward and Fox still with us. Hard to see Foxy making big numbers but the first two probably will. Hayward on the edge. Bell won't. Amartey is a puzzle. Don't think so but could be shocked.
Stephens and Gould IMO won't make it. O'Connor won't. Warner will. Wicks will. This year's big 3 will. The lower picks probably won't.
Paddy McCartin - brave call - sadly - won't. Tom will.
A lot of fine young men will fall by the wayside. It's a tough world.

Wowee you don't think Stephens will make it? That's an unbelievable call IMO that I'd like to hear your reasoning behind. (If you feel like sharing, not having a go at you.)

 

[Punts]

Stephens reminds me of a left footed paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

24

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

 

[Kiama Chris]

Wowee you don't think Stephens will make it? That's an unbelievable call IMO that I'd like to hear your reasoning behind. (If you feel like sharing, not having a go at you.)

To me Stephens doesn't hit the spaces hard. Makes it hard to break away, despite his pace. He tackles well.
I lost a fair bit of faith in the Geelong game when Ablett pushed on his shoulder and he fell over and didn't bounce up. It was not a hit, just a gentle push away. Made me think his anchor, balance and recovery were not great. Very hard to stay involved.
Very, very happy to be wrong. I think they're all terrific young men. He's no exception.
A positive example: a less talented footballer, Hayden McLean, outpositioned AA full back Harris Andrews but dropped a simple mark. Kept his head and concentration, collected the ball and put out a decent handball to the player (Gulden - not relevant) who kicked the goal. Stayed in the play.

 

[Kiama Chris]

I disagree with Stephens and Gould. Too early to call.

Probably true of most of them. Look at the first posts!

 

[caesar88]

To me Stephens doesn't hit the spaces hard. Makes it hard to break away, despite his pace. He tackles well.
I lost a fair bit of faith in the Geelong game when Ablett pushed on his shoulder and he fell over and didn't bounce up. It was not a hit, just a gentle push away. Made me think his anchor, balance and recovery were not great. Very hard to stay involved.
Very, very happy to be wrong. I think they're all terrific young men. He's no exception.
A positive example: a less talented footballer, Hayden McLean, outpositioned AA full back Harris Andrews but dropped a simple mark. Kept his head and concentration, collected the ball and put out a decent handball to the player (Gulden - not relevant) who kicked the goal. Stayed in the play.

Fair enough. I wouldn't disagree with any of that. But I don't think they are irredeemable flaws in his game, more related to adjusting to the pace, which I have always said is an under-stated issue that the kids who played WAFL/SANFL have to deal with. They are used to the bigger bodies but not the pace of the game. The good news is Stephens has no problem finding the ball and covers the ground well, so he will give himself every opportunity to settle into games with each touch. His first year was significantly better than McInerney's, who really impressed in the tail end of his second year. It was also more impressive than Warner's first year, who is the current SNT. So I see no reason he can't come on in leaps and bounds as those two did once they entered their respective second years.

 

[legend166]

Glad someone bumped this, the whole purpose was really to laugh at our bad opinions and just how hard it is to have a long, impactful career.

You look at that list, there's a possibility Florent is the only one that has a long career with with Swans. And even then I wouldn't say that's an absolute certainty. If Hayward doesn't cement himself in the side this year he's definite trade bait.

Have to laugh at my Marsh call. What was I thinking?

Edit: Oops, forgot Dawson as well.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Fair enough. I wouldn't disagree with any of that. But I don't think they are irredeemable flaws in his game, more related to adjusting to the pace, which I have always said is an under-stated issue that the kids who played WAFL/SANFL have to deal with. They are used to the bigger bodies but not the pace of the game. The good news is Stephens has no problem finding the ball and covers the ground well, so he will give himself every opportunity to settle into games with each touch. His first year was significantly better than McInerney's, who really impressed in the tail end of his second year. It was also more impressive than Warner's first year, who is the current SNT. So I see no reason he can't come on in leaps and bounds as those two did once they entered their respective second years.

I think it's easy to overlook just how hard it is to prepare, train and play consistently at this level. Why I never like to bag these guys out. So happy when they succeed and sad if they don't.
Our team last week is close to the most skilled and talented I've seen us put out since 2016.

 

[caesar88]

I think it's easy to overlook just how hard it is to prepare, train and play consistently at this level. Why I never like to bag these guys out. So happy when they succeed and sad if they don't.
Our team last week is close to the most skilled and talented I've seen us put out since 2016.

It sure looked like it. I tend to weigh up the good and the not so good attributes a player has to gauge their chances of having a career, and if so, how good they'll become. This is the reason I have the highest hopes for McCartin & Rowbottom. They have nothing holding them back, nothing that we can even doubt or criticise them for, and it's why both are pretty much universally appreciated on this board, which is rare. At the very least they will be very good players. How great they become is then up to themselves, and, given they both seem like the utmost of professionals, I just can't see them ending up anything other than great.

On the weekend I saw a handful of kids who showed good attributes that I didn't even immediately have as obvious good attributes of theirs. In Wicks' case it was some real class and flair, on top of his obvious qualities of hardness and mongrel. In Warner's case I saw a touch of pace and polish, on top of his obvious strength and contested game. In Gulden, I saw genuine class, on top of his obvious qualities of enormous work rate and confidence. We'll find out if they can sustain that, but if so, it bodes really well for all these kids as it means they are adding strengths to their games on top of the qualities they already had that got them drafted.

I think it's usually a worrying sign when more flaws are exposed in a player's game with each passing year, as it basically increases their chance of being pushed out of the team by someone who has his number in regards to that particular quality or flaw. Hayward being edged out by Gulden & Wicks, who offer more class and work rate respectively than Hayward, is an example. Another potential example we might see this year is Blakey. I think he's an uber talent, but he needs to work a bit harder to get to the right places as a wingman, or I could see a scenario where he is replaced by McInerney, who has a good knack for getting into the right places.

 

[Kiama Chris]

It sure looked like it. I tend to weigh up the good and the not so good attributes a player has to gauge their chances of having a career, and if so, how good they'll become. This is the reason I have the highest hopes for McCartin & Rowbottom. They have nothing holding them back, nothing that we can even doubt or criticise them for, and it's why both are pretty much universally appreciated on this board, which is rare. At the very least they will be very good players. How great they become is then up to themselves, and, given they both seem like the utmost of professionals, I just can't see them ending up anything other than great.

On the weekend I saw a handful of kids who showed good attributes that I didn't even immediately have as obvious good attributes of theirs. In Wicks' case it was some real class and flair, on top of his obvious qualities of hardness and mongrel. In Warner's case I saw a touch of pace and polish, on top of his obvious strength and contested game. In Gulden, I saw genuine class, on top of his obvious qualities of enormous work rate and confidence. We'll find out if they can sustain that, but if so, it bodes really well for all these kids as it means they are adding strengths to their games on top of the qualities they already had that got them drafted.

I think it's usually a worrying sign when more flaws are exposed in a player's game with each passing year, as it basically increases their chance of being pushed out of the team by someone who has his number in regards to that particular quality or flaw. Hayward being edged out by Gulden & Wicks, who offer more class and work rate respectively than Hayward, is an example. Another potential example we might see this year is Blakey. I think he's an uber talent, but he needs to work a bit harder to get to the right places as a wingman, or I could see a scenario where he is replaced by McInerney, who has a good knack for getting into the right places.

McInerney is very disciplined at getting the right distance forward of the ball. Saw this in ressies and again last year in seniors. Good judgement, quick reactions and hard work. Hope he keeps it up. Blakey the more physically skilled but JMac could turn out to be mentally tougher. Hopefully both succeed.
The highlight in both JMac and Dawson's 2020 reels where Dawson picks it up, JMac takes off, Dawso lines up and lets go, straight onto JMac's chest, not even breaking stride. Goal! Beautiful footy.

 

[Kapers]

I guess the point of this thread is to make assumptions about players without too much info. I understand the Gould backlash, but I think he deserves a few years in the ressies. It's not unusual for a defender like him to take longer to get ready for a senior debut, and I'll hold judgement until we see a few games from him.

I also understand the worries around Ling. I think he could be the next Cunningham. Is basically our only small defender after him (maybe Lloyd), and we need depth in that area. If anything, that is what will keep him in the team.

 

[Kapers]

The one I'm surprised about is Stephens. IMO, showed a lot for a draftee, and impressed the most out of the 2019 crop (as you would expect). It's also easy to forget that he's only about 75kg, which is very light for 1.84m. He'll learn how to use his body, but like McInerney it takes time. You can't come into he afl that light and expect it to be an easy transition, you have to learn how to use your speed and agility.

BTW, the run and carry that we saw from Stephens, his burst from packs and running goals, we didn't see any of that last year. I feel that is a confidence issue. I also feel that he would, more than most, benefit from how the team is moving the ball. He'll naturally be able to be that link man in the dying minutes of the game, when everyone else is buggered.

 

[Ralphyboy]

The one I'm surprised about is Stephens. IMO, showed a lot for a draftee, and impressed the most out of the 2019 crop (as you would expect). It's also easy to forget that he's only about 75kg, which is very light for 1.84m. He'll learn how to use his body, but like McInerney it takes time. You can't come into he afl that light and expect it to be an easy transition, you have to learn how to use your speed and agility.

BTW, the run and carry that we saw from Stephens, his burst from packs and running goals, we didn't see any of that last year. I feel that is a confidence issue. I also feel that he would, more than most, benefit from how the team is moving the ball. He'll naturally be able to be that link man in the dying minutes of the game, when everyone else is buggered.

I agree, of anyone Stephens should suit the new rules perfectly.

 

[caesar88]

The one I'm surprised about is Stephens. IMO, showed a lot for a draftee, and impressed the most out of the 2019 crop (as you would expect). It's also easy to forget that he's only about 75kg, which is very light for 1.84m. He'll learn how to use his body, but like McInerney it takes time. You can't come into he afl that light and expect it to be an easy transition, you have to learn how to use your speed and agility.

BTW, the run and carry that we saw from Stephens, his burst from packs and running goals, we didn't see any of that last year. I feel that is a confidence issue. I also feel that he would, more than most, benefit from how the team is moving the ball. He'll naturally be able to be that link man in the dying minutes of the game, when everyone else is buggered.

But he's a first round pick, which means we have to hold him to a different and unfair standard than we hold others. Just like Heeney, Mills, Florent and Blakey before him.

 

[BloodySwan]

The one I'm surprised about is Stephens. IMO, showed a lot for a draftee, and impressed the most out of the 2019 crop (as you would expect). It's also easy to forget that he's only about 75kg, which is very light for 1.84m. He'll learn how to use his body, but like McInerney it takes time. You can't come into he afl that light and expect it to be an easy transition, you have to learn how to use your speed and agility.

BTW, the run and carry that we saw from Stephens, his burst from packs and running goals, we didn't see any of that last year. I feel that is a confidence issue. I also feel that he would, more than most, benefit from how the team is moving the ball. He'll naturally be able to be that link man in the dying minutes of the game, when everyone else is buggered.

Too early to discount either. Both in their second season, anyone writing them off already has NFI

 

[The Gong]

Glad we're not rushing to any conclusions on our young players

McInerney only played 1 game in his debut season while Stephens played 8. I know injuries probably provided more opportunity for Stephens but, while he didn't set the world on fire, he didn't look out of place at senior level either. I think we're all pretty excited about the inclusions of Campbell, McDonald and Gulden but let's not smother them with unrealistic expectations. There's no reason that Stephens couldn't develop into a Best 22 player for us.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

But he's a first round pick, which means we have to hold him to a different and unfair standard than we hold others. Just like Heeney, Mills, Florent and Blakey before him.

Why? He's now just a player on our list. In the 22 or not. Contributing or not. The standard is his contribution as against other players of his type. His draft position is meaningless once drafted.

 

[sataris]

His draft position is meaningless once drafted.

Not entirely true.

A first round flame-out is much worse than a 2nd, 3rd or rookie flame-out.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Veszpremi

 

[caesar88]

Why? He's now just a player on our list. In the 22 or not. Contributing or not. The standard is his contribution as against other players of his type. His draft position is meaningless once drafted.

Sorry Bruce I was being a smart-arse. Sarcasm just does not translate well online.

 

[Ralphyboy]

Why? He's now just a player on our list. In the 22 or not. Contributing or not. The standard is his contribution as against other players of his type. His draft position is meaningless once drafted.

Draft position has been pretty relevant. High picks get more patience and longer contracts, because there is greater belief in their talent. Rookies get the one year deals and have to perform quickly or get cut. High picks will get picked in the team even when not performing to try to run them into form. Low picks get dropped after one bad game. The patience shown to Blakey and Hayward underlines the talent they possess. It all makes sense, the higher the draft pick the more the club believes the player will be a long term asset. Otherwise they would not be high draft picks.

However the club also wants to win games, so if a rookie can deliver more to the team, and push hard enough, a high draft pick will be dropped for the rookie. For example sam wicks has pushed out will hayward. However a player like sam wicks lives on a knife edge, one average game and hayward will be back in. That is the life of a rookie. A low draft pick rookie is trying desperately to be significantly better than the high draft picks. That way their currency goes up and they can negotiate for a decent contract. That is what Papley has achieved. The rookies, like wicks and fox, do endless extra work and know they can be out of the team anytime. I understand the guys like hayward and blakey stick to the program and don't do feel they need to do anything extra. They can combine a good training effort with their talent to succeed. For the rookies it is all about the work effort and their hunger as they don't have the same talents.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Draft position has been pretty relevant. High picks get more patience and longer contracts, because there is greater belief in their talent. Rookies get the one year deals and have to perform quickly or get cut. High picks will get picked in the team even when not performing to try to run them into form. Low picks get dropped after one bad game. The patience shown to Blakey and Hayward underlines the talent they possess. It all makes sense, the higher the draft pick the more the club believes the player will be a long term asset. Otherwise they would not be high draft picks.

Oh all of that I appreciate. I was responding to what turned out to be a sarcastic post about holding higher draft picks to a higher standard.

As a supporter, I hold Wicks and Bell to the same standard I hold Stephens and Blakey. AFL standard.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

James Rose. 60 games
Jordan Foote. 3 -5 games
Will Hayward. 150 plus
Oliver Florent. 100 plus
Nic Newman. 150 plus
Harrison Marsh. 75 plus
Jordan Dawson. Less than 25
Sam Naismith. 120 plus
Aliir Aliir. 200 plus
Robbie Fox less than 20

Sometimes, you do wish a fellow poster (in this case, The King! ) had predicted accurately.

Having said that - I’d really miss the Dawson thread if he had turned out to be a <25 game dud. It remains the second best thread on Bigfooty (narrowly behind Sack Hinkley IX).

 

[Kiama Chris]

Since this thread started we have recruited quite a lot of quality. Almost all of our youngsters have the capability to play a lot of games.
Dawson, Florent, Hayward and Fox still with us. Hard to see Foxy making big numbers but the first two probably will. Hayward on the edge. Bell won't. Amartey is a puzzle. Don't think so but could be shocked.
Stephens and Gould IMO won't make it. O'Connor won't. Warner will. Wicks will. This year's big 3 will. The lower picks probably won't.
Paddy McCartin - brave call - sadly - won't. Tom will.
A lot of fine young men will fall by the wayside. It's a tough world.

Interesting to go back and look at these predictions! Not sure that I'm happy to have gotten it pretty much right. Hard to celebrate failure. The big 3 of course were McDonald, Campbell and Gulden. Sheather was the lower pick.
No-one picked Lizard as a star half back!
Of the current crop (not trade ins or this year's draft) Sheldrick, Konstanty and WarnerCo I reckon have what it takes to play 150+. Roberts is borderline.
Much too soon to judge but I like the look of Cleary and Green.
The others we'll need half a season of VFL.

 

[Callipygian]

I like Robbie Fox. He's combative, he stays on his feet, he seems to make good decisions. There's something of the Brett Kirk about him.

Hayward and Florent have the class. Give Dawson some time, it wasn't the best style of game for a debutant flanker.

Foote puts in, but I just don't think he has the requisite skills. Looking to hand off within 40m (and with good reason!) is just not AFL standard.

Marsh was ok but I'm not sure he'll ever be best 22.

This post has aged like fine wine. Well done putting together such a corker!

Is BFB still with us? I can't remember any recent posts. Maybe Bruce si just refreshing over the off-season and will be back for Opening Night? I hope so.