Out of the traditional 'Big 4', who is closest to their next premiership and why?

[JayJ20]

Essendons' kids performed well this year so their future looks quite bright, but they can't hang their hat on the 12 returning players.

Watson is 31 yo
Stanton 30
Hocking 29 in December
Hooker 28 in October
Myers, Howlett, and Bellchambers 27
Hurley, Pears, and Hibberd are 26.
Colyer 25
Heppel 24

So from the returning players you'ld have to say that at least 6 of them won't be around in 4 years when they are ready to challenge. The VFL side made the eight so they are unearthing talent. Proven coach.

Carlton's best players, apart from Cripps, are all at the wrong end of the age scale for them to be around and challenging for the flag in 4 years. VFL team is poor too. Not as bright a future as some think.

I never rated the Tigers even when they made finals recently. Too many plodders and not much shown from their recent debutantes. VFL side finished the season well so maybe some kids are ready to emerge.

Watson, Stanton, Hocking, Howlett, Pears and Hibberd are not integral to our side. TBC will be competing with Leuey.

Heppell, Hooker, Hurley and Colyer will improve our side immensely. Our defence will be very good. Midfield will need plenty of work and we need a key tall to help out Daniher.

We've fast tracked the development of many of our players this year with more players to come in this year. Still a while away until we can be considered fenuine contenders.

 

[RudyBlue]

I can't help but get the feeling people are severely overrating Essendon's prospects in 2017 ($21 to win the flag and $3 to make the 8 is massive overs). The suspended players aren't going to just slot straight back into the side and have an immediate impact - they've not only been roughhousing with bulls in Spain and making coffees in NYC all year, but settling the team's dynamics and structures might take some time. In reality, Essendon will probably be fighting to avoid a bottom 4 finish with (at this stage) Richmond, Carlton, North, Freo and GC unless they receive an incredibly soft draw.

Collingwood are 50/50 or slightly better to play finals barring the injuries and inconsistency that have plagued them this year, in which case they miss out. As mentioned, Carlton are very difficult to get an accurate read on, but I actually think retaining and assigning important roles to many of the more experienced players (Simpson, Armfield, Walker, Murphy, Gibbs, etc.) rather than just taking the Melbourne under Bailey/Neeld approach and playing da yoof might benefit them long-term (provided they make calls on retirements/role changes at the right time). St Kilda have done similar with Riewoldt, Armitage, Montagna, Gilbert etc. and look to be transitioning successfully, ditto the Dogs with Murphy, Boyd and co.

Definitely not in a club's best interests to move on all their experience during a rebuild, selectivity is key. The Hawks' dynasty was built with the likes of Crawf, Vandenberg and Joel Smith around to provide leadership. Players of no broader cultural value like Hay and Thompson were traded out for good returns.

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk

 

[windyhill]

When you change your username to 'Established1997'.

How about their "creed" and the always amusing boast "we exist to win premierships" ffs.

 

[pazza]

I can't help but get the feeling people are severely overrating Essendon's prospects in 2017 ($21 to win the flag and $3 to make the 8 is massive overs). The suspended players aren't going to just slot straight back into the side and have an immediate impact - they've not only been roughhousing with bulls in Spain and making coffees in NYC all year, but settling the team's dynamics and structures might take some time. In reality, Essendon will probably be fighting to avoid a bottom 4 finish with (at this stage) Richmond, Carlton, North, Freo and GC unless they receive an incredibly soft draw.

Collingwood are 50/50 or slightly better to play finals barring the injuries and inconsistency that have plagued them this year, in which case they miss out. As mentioned, Carlton are very difficult to get an accurate read on, but I actually think retaining and assigning important roles to many of the more experienced players (Simpson, Armfield, Walker, Murphy, Gibbs, etc.) rather than just taking the Melbourne under Bailey/Neeld approach and playing da yoof might benefit them long-term (provided they make calls on retirements/role changes at the right time). St Kilda have done similar with Riewoldt, Armitage, Montagna, Gilbert etc. and look to be transitioning successfully, ditto the Dogs with Murphy, Boyd and co.

Based on the rankings we will get the following.

From the bottom 6...2 games against Fremantle, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Carlton and Richmond. That means we get Fremantle at home for the first time in years. 3 home games at Etihad, 2 home and 2 away at the MCG and 3 interstate trips.

Middle 6 - Western Bulldogs, North Melbourne, St. Kilda, Port Adelaide, Melbourne and Collingwood. By rights you would think the AFL would split it like this - 2 games against Collingwood, Bulldogs and North - 1 game against Melbourne, St. Kilda and Port Adelaide. Collingwood twice at the MCG, 1 interstate trip, 2 home at Etihad, 1 away at the MCG (Melbourne) and 1 away at Etihad.

Top 6 - Sydney, Geelong, Hawthorn, GWS, Adelaide, West Coast. 1 interstate trip (Sydney). Hawthorn (away) and Geelong (home) at MCG. GWS, Adelaide and West Coast at Etihad.

So MCG: Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Geelong (home) and Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne and Hawthorn (away).
Etihad: Fremantle, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, North Melbourne, GWS, Adelaide, West Coast (home) St. Kilda (away)
Interstate: Fremantle, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide

Looks not too bad.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Based on the rankings we will get the following.

From the bottom 6...2 games against Fremantle, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Carlton and Richmond. That means we get Fremantle at home for the first time in years. 3 home games at Etihad, 2 home and 2 away at the MCG and 3 interstate trips.

Isn't it supposed to work like

bottom six - play three bottom six sides twice, one middle six side twice, one top six side twice
middle six - play one bottom six side twice, three middle six sides twice, one top six side twice
top six - play one bottom six side twice, one middle six side twice, three top six sides twice

?

 

[Ron The Bear]

How about their "creed" and the always amusing boast "we exist to win premierships" ffs.

Mmmm, plenty could be said.

 

[Kipz]

The Crows have had the no. 1 home crowd attendance in the AFL for 2 of the last 3 years.

We're not Big 4, we're Big 1.

You took a big one Friday night

 

[Run n Spread]

Will be excused of bias but will post anyway.

Pies- Good to go. Great list decent game plan needed over summer and ready to rock.

Dons- Good youngsters but the 10 coming back are old not that good. Reckon the suspensions have camouflaged problems and in truth ASADA's incompetence fu*** their window which was 14-15. Good younguns thou. Daniher will be best KPP in the comp

Blues- Might regress next year. Brilliant 1st year under BB but may plateau when the old boys decline.

Tigers- Top 5 guns. Nothing underneath. Need to go Saints 12 and have a rebuild. Even if it means selling a gun or 2.

 

[TiggerMan22]

Richmond beat Pies by 91 points just a year ago.
Pies no where near it.

 

[Sinjin Smith]

Collingwood are the only club in that group whose administration isn't completely laughable.

Ours was laughable, in fact ******* hysterical. I think we have turned in the ways of management and culture, no more Hail Mary's. However we are still years away.

 

[footyfan1978]

Needs bumping.

1. Carlton
Seem to be heading in rhe right direction 2. Essendon.
Not really rational but I think the emotion and trauma of the last few years will drive a comeback in the near future.3. Collingwood
Mostly becuase they're not Richmond, ànd mbecuase we haven't ticked them off our list yet.
4 Richmond
ROFL.

 

[Tzatziki_Man]

What a thread

Not to be a dick and laugh at everyone and their opinions that are very long.

All I gotta say is that from 1st-12th seems to be a small difference in quality and with just the right momentum, injury free list and reinvorated gameplan, Essendon and Collingwood would be up for it. Not Carlton though, worst side of this millennium by the length of the bass straight!

Goes to show how many people got Richmond wrong, not even I had them in the 8. Lots of hope for all other teams this preseason. Except Carlton, North and GCS.

 

[PeaTea]

What a thread

Not to be a dick and laugh at everyone and their opinions that are very long.

All I gotta say is that from 1st-12th seems to be a small difference in quality and with just the right momentum, injury free list and reinvorated gameplan, Essendon and Collingwood would be up for it. Not Carlton though, worst side of this millennium by the length of the bass straight!

Goes to show how many people got Richmond wrong, not even I had them in the 8. Lots of hope for all other teams this preseason. Except Carlton, North and GCS.

Bumping a 12m old thread. Nice.
And for the record, based on the Tigers performances last year most opinions were valid. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

 

[roacheee]

Rather than using the obsolete title of "Traditional Big 4" could we just change the title as to who will win the next flag out of Carlton Essendon Collingwood and Richmond.

England were once the most powerful country in the world, they're pretty much irrelevant now.

umm no they weren't, it was called the British Empire. It's ok to be ignorant but it's just stupid to advertise the fact

 

[RupieDupie]

Another question that should be asked is, do AFL teams give their supporters Stockholm Syndrome?

Something must "keep them hanging on", and defending their teams, even after all the abuse they have received as captors. There are some supporters I genuinely feel sorry for, I meet them in the pub and I'm all like, "hey, who do you barrack for?", and they look down despondently into the dregs of beer in the glass in front of them and then mutter a team name. Then I give them a bit of a pat on the back in sympathy, but they turn to me and say, "but they're doing alright though, they picked up <whatshisname> in the recent draft, they'll do alright next year". And then I nod, and humour them with some agreement, but in my head I think to myself, 'poor deranged fcuker'. It's the least I can do for the poor buggers.

 

[roacheee]

Bumping a 12m old thread. Nice.
And for the record, based on the Tigers performances last year most opinions were valid. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

isn't it just

 

[Tzatziki_Man]

Bumping a 12m old thread. Nice.
And for the record, based on the Tigers performances last year most opinions were valid. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Did you even read what I wrote ???!?