Opinion Outlook for 2019 - Where will we finish on the ladder?

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Arr0w

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#54
Young teams almost never play as well in the second half of the season.

I agree that we should have won at least 3 more games this season already. The fact that we choked pretty hard in a couple of them shows me we arent ready to take the next step (which is to run out a 4th qtr and put teams away when we have the chance).

I would bet my house at $1.05 we wont win 9 games for the season.
How much would you bet, on us not having 6 wins at the end of the year?
 
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#56
15-16th feels about right to me.

No real analysis done and it’s all essentially guesswork/unknowns anyway but can see 2 or maybe 3 of Saints, North, GC, Swans finishing below us.

I just feel we are improving and gelling / gaining team cohesion each week whereas those teams are all pretty **** 😃
Reckon we will win enough games to overtake some of these teams in back half of the year.

Above assumes a healthy Kreuzer though.
I must agree with other posters that have stated his criticality to our team and our fortunes do seem rather dependent on a fit Kreuzer.
 

FitzroyBlueBagger

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#60
I think looking at the teams we play for the rest of the year 6-8 more wins wouldn’t be out of the question if we have a descent run with injury.

We play Saints twice, Bulldogs again, Gold Coast again, Sydney, Bombers, Eagles at MCG, Freo, Brisbane, would be a chance in all of those given gradual improvement between now and end of the year.

Our run up to the bye should give us a good idea at where we are at.
Forgot Adelaide MCG Murph...👍
 

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Moderator #65
Young teams almost never play as well in the second half of the season.

I agree that we should have won at least 3 more games this season already. The fact that we choked pretty hard in a couple of them shows me we arent ready to take the next step (which is to run out a 4th qtr and put teams away when we have the chance).

I would bet my house at $1.05 we wont win 9 games for the season.
Look at the team we're compared to a lot these days - Brisbane. They didn't just play 'as well' in the second half of 2018. They played better.

5 wins for the year, with 4 of them coming after the bye - as well as two losses under a goal.

That's not to say we'll follow suit, but it can happen. It does happen.

I read something today that interested me and had me thinking along these lines - we're planning on using Gibbons more in the middle in the second half of the year. And it wouldn't surprise if we did the same with Ed and even Murphy, who have been mainstays over the years but somewhat cast aside in favour of youth thus far in 2019. I have no doubt that will help as the season progresses and the kids tire.

I agree with you that 9 wins this year seems a bit of a stretch, but I do see more wins coming. I don't think it's as simple as saying we're a young team and therefore we'll just taper off.
 

rp84

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#66
Look at the team we're compared to a lot these days - Brisbane. They didn't just play 'as well' in the second half of 2018. They played better.

5 wins for the year, with 4 of them coming after the bye - as well as two losses under a goal.

That's not to say we'll follow suit, but it can happen. It does happen.

I read something today that interested me and had me thinking along these lines - we're planning on using Gibbons more in the middle in the second half of the year. And it wouldn't surprise if we did the same with Ed and even Murphy, who have been mainstays over the years but somewhat cast aside in favour of youth thus far in 2019. I have no doubt that will help as the season progresses and the kids tire.

I agree with you that 9 wins this year seems a bit of a stretch, but I do see more wins coming. I don't think it's as simple as saying we're a young team and therefore we'll just taper off.
...But...the odds kinda ARE that we taper off... because we're young.

Its fun to hypothesize why we wont but realistically, it is highly likely we will. If we manage 5 wins from here, I will be shocked and very pleased. Nevertheless, I think fatigue will set in. This is a VERY young playing group.

I'm not convinced moving Murphy into the middle will do anything to help our case. Our young mids have been dominant in the clearances for most games. Murph looks like he could do well to play most of the rest of his career in the forward pocket. Has snagged a few out of nowhere.

Nine is silly talk.
 
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Thread starter #68
Young teams almost never play as well in the second half of the season.

I agree that we should have won at least 3 more games this season already. The fact that we choked pretty hard in a couple of them shows me we arent ready to take the next step (which is to run out a 4th qtr and put teams away when we have the chance).

I would bet my house at $1.05 we wont win 9 games for the season.
We threw Suns game away,thats one.Other games we were allowed to tag along to a certain extent....
should be 2 games
I am happy with 17 th....if we can fight hard for every point,our base should be ok with Russell....

Gimme 17 th will do...then we go to 10 th in 2010

Go Blues
 

footyfan78

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#69
14 games left. I expect about 7 wins from that. More hopefully.
Not sure where 8 wins would leave us. Maybe about 14th or 13th.
If we had not lost Docherty and Pickett pre-season and some untimely in game injuries, I reckon we would have won about half our games.
It is important this week to put in a good game to back up last round after the poor game v North. This week is probably our toughest game for season. We run into Giants just as they get their main ruck back and prime move of ball in Whitfield and we play them on their home deck. They are dirty on themselves from last week dropping a game so we not run into them in complacent mood. A good showing even if we do not win will be good sign we can start to win games against teams more beatable in the coming rounds.
7 wins for season will be a pass from me considering injuries we had.
If we win half our games from here can set us up for next season to be ready to develop further and win over 50% of games in 2020 and probably make finals with Russell another pre-season to get youngsters more ready for four quarters of football each week.
 
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Thread starter #71
14 games left. I expect about 7 wins from that. More hopefully.
Not sure where 8 wins would leave us. Maybe about 14th or 13th.
If we had not lost Docherty and Pickett pre-season and some untimely in game injuries, I reckon we would have won about half our games.
It is important this week to put in a good game to back up last round after the poor game v North. This week is probably our toughest game for season. We run into Giants just as they get their main ruck back and prime move of ball in Whitfield and we play them on their home deck. They are dirty on themselves from last week dropping a game so we not run into them in complacent mood. A good showing even if we do not win will be good sign we can start to win games against teams more beatable in the coming rounds.
7 wins for season will be a pass from me considering injuries we had.
If we win half our games from here can set us up for next season to be ready to develop further and win over 50% of games in 2020 and probably make finals with Russell another pre-season to get youngsters more ready for four quarters of football each week.
With you on Doc......AA flew very high for a short period of time
we need Doc back...even a limited role would be good...he can general the back half.

Pickett....not really hey
He was hot during NEAFL pretrade to CFC...and yes he was quick and evasive,still would be
However he has shown no indication at AFL level......no breakout,work ethic issues etc etc......does not get the ball enough at all
no.4 pick......he could still make it,at a rookie draft with motivational training and tank development,major overhaul .....maybe get a running coach etc and monitored etc.....
 

Metalcrusher

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#72
With you on Doc......AA flew very high for a short period of time
we need Doc back...even a limited role would be good...he can general the back half.

Pickett....not really hey
He was hot during NEAFL pretrade to CFC...and yes he was quick and evasive,still would be
However he has shown no indication at AFL level......no breakout,work ethic issues etc etc......does not get the ball enough at all
no.4 pick......he could still make it,at a rookie draft with motivational training and tank development,major overhaul .....maybe get a running coach etc and monitored etc.....
Needs a Zinger moment.
 

footyfan78

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#73
Not down on Pickett myself. Kid had no luck with injuries yet. Seen enough that he can make big impact when he gets injury free. Not heard any specific news on when he due back from injury. Hopefully he can get some football in late July or August but still listed indefinite. Think patience will be rewarded next season.
 
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