Discussion Paddy v Petracca

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Joffaboy

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Anyway I think we look a lot better than we did as far as drafting got but we really need to keep taking players at the top end of the draft if we want star players. Caleb Serong looks a beauty, we need to try to find our own players like that. King already looks better than any of the players that we paid up to get and he's not even played 20 games.
Thought Serng was garbage last night
 

George

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I think you nailed it in your first sentence. Its not the spine that's important. Its your midfield! That stat you showed highlights exactly the point of my argument.

The team that wins a grand final is always the one with a better midfield on the day.

If that wasn't the case then you would see Sydney beating Hawthorn with buddy. You would see hawthorn beating swans when they had buddy.

The 195cm you mentioned shows exactly what I mean. Those 195cm forwards are agile. They cover ground. Theyre not like mccartin. Mccartin is undersized and slow with literally no tank!!!!
Uhh, it is the spine that's important. You could have 22 midfielders out there, if you have no structure or marking players you will lose every game. Having quality at key posts (FB-CHB-C-CHF-FF) is what most great sides have. The reason the Eagles won in 2018 was because of their spine. Richmond with Rance-Grimes-Martin-Lynch-Riewoldt. Look at most premiership winning sides and you'll see they have quality across the key posts. And in 2014, Carlisle-Goddard-Steven-Riewoldt-McCartin was the envy of most sides in the competition, despite what we may think six years on as things changed.

If you took any notice of McCartin in his TAC Cup year with the Falcons you'd see how dominant he was. In a game against Gippsland he kicked 6.4 from 10 marks and 17 touches. He kicked 5 goals as a bottom age player in the national championships. He was the best tall forward of the draft. If he wasn't suited to the modern game as you say, nobody would've picked him up. Nobody. So the fact he was rated #1 of the forwards shows that everyone with knowledge of the draft knew he could play at the professional level.
 

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Joffaboy

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It's funny the way opposition supporters and the media see Petracca. He came 4th in our B&F last year and kicked over 20 goals. He wasn't great and we were a bottom two team, but he had some good games; albeit you wouldn't see him for a quarter or a half. Prior to this year he averaged 19 disposals and a goal per game. Not too shabby, but we all knew he had more if he could get fit.

Then I look at Cam Rayner, a former pick one and wonder how he flies under the radar. Nearing the end of year 3 with almost 60 games under his belt and he averages 11 disposals and under a goal per game. He's cut the type of slack that was never afforded the ''disappointing'' Petracca, who performed much better from day one (kicked 26 goals in year 2).

I'm not knocking Rayner and have come to realise it's a Melbourne thing.

With Watts, Scully going (talk about a bog ordinary player), Trengove, Morton, etc. Melbourne players have become fair game. I kind of get it.

We're a flaky club with flaky players and the subsequent commentary follows.

Good lucky to Rayner. He gets a free pass, because he doesn't play for Melbourne.
This is true for the "unsuccessful" clubs like Melbourne and St,Kilda and until recently Bulldogs and Richmond. Look at Essendon, their draft picks are so overrated by their media propaganda unit that every year their stars are propelling them to be a top four team.

Also Rayner has been shielded by being in Brisbane and Brisbane going north on the ladder while Melbourne has been poor, looked great in 2018 and then have struggled again.

Anyway can we have Brayshaw or Oliver please?
 

Trav 20

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This is true for the "unsuccessful" clubs like Melbourne and St,Kilda and until recently Bulldogs and Richmond. Look at Essendon, their draft picks are so overrated by their media propaganda unit that every year their stars are propelling them to be a top four team.

Also Rayner has been shielded by being in Brisbane and Brisbane going north on the ladder while Melbourne has been poor, looked great in 2018 and then have struggled again.

Anyway can we have Brayshaw or Oliver please?
Very true about Essendon. Very overrated some of their players.

I'd trade Brayshaw, so yes, you can have him. He can be a bloody good player, but he's best as an insider and he doesn't currently get as much time there as he'd like.

If he does leave I can see him becoming very good with the right club.

That said, I'm kind of hoping he stays and gets his head right with us.
 

Mowman

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Very true about Essendon. Very overrated some of their players.

I'd trade Brayshaw, so yes, you can have him. He can be a bloody good player, but he's best as an insider and he doesn't currently get as much time there as he'd like.

If he does leave I can see him becoming very good with the right club.

That said, I'm kind of hoping he stays and gets his head right with us.
Thats what we need an inside mid
I liked to have him at the Saints
 

st_trav_ofWA

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None of them have done it this bad. Atleast not in the professional era.
really ...
its easy to be harsh on our team because we have a vested interest in them but look deep at it and you realise that for every Danger or Bont you got Richard Tambling or Mitch Thorp.....

Darren Pfeiffer -Pick 17, 2005
John Meesen - Pick 8, 2004
Fergus Watts - Pick 14, 2003
Laurence Angwin - Pick 7, 2000
Billy Longer - Pick 8, 2011
Sam Docherty - Pick 12 2011
Jared Polec - Pick 5, 2010
Llane Spaanderman - Pick 18, 2003
Josh Bootsma - Pick 22, 2011
Murray Vance - Pick 6, 1998
Danny Roach Pick 7 1999
Nathan Freeman Pick 15
Mitch Thorp - Pick 6, 2006
Beau Dowler - Pick 6, 2005
Barry Brooks - Pick 15, 2001
Lewis Johnston - Pick 12, 2008
Patrick Veszpremi - Pick 11, 2007
Daniel O'Keefe - Pick 15, 2006
Chris Egan - Pick 10, 2004
Tony Notte - Pick 20, 2007
Tim Walsh - Pick 4, 2002
Adam Thompson - pick 11 2004
Danny Meyer - pick 12 2004
Scott Gumbleton pick 2 2006
Marcus Drum pick 10 2005
Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls pick 8 2005

i could go on but i cant be bothered researching it ...
 

George

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really ...
its easy to be harsh on our team because we have a vested interest in them but look deep at it and you realise that for every Danger or Bont you got Richard Tambling or Mitch Thorp.....

Darren Pfeiffer -Pick 17, 2005
John Meesen - Pick 8, 2004
Fergus Watts - Pick 14, 2003
Laurence Angwin - Pick 7, 2000
Billy Longer - Pick 8, 2011
Sam Docherty - Pick 12 2011
Jared Polec - Pick 5, 2010
Llane Spaanderman - Pick 18, 2003
Josh Bootsma - Pick 22, 2011
Murray Vance - Pick 6, 1998
Danny Roach Pick 7 1999
Nathan Freeman Pick 15
Mitch Thorp - Pick 6, 2006
Beau Dowler - Pick 6, 2005
Barry Brooks - Pick 15, 2001
Lewis Johnston - Pick 12, 2008
Patrick Veszpremi - Pick 11, 2007
Daniel O'Keefe - Pick 15, 2006
Chris Egan - Pick 10, 2004
Tony Notte - Pick 20, 2007
Tim Walsh - Pick 4, 2002
Adam Thompson - pick 11 2004
Danny Meyer - pick 12 2004
Scott Gumbleton pick 2 2006
Marcus Drum pick 10 2005
Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls pick 8 2005

i could go on but i cant be bothered researching it ...
Wow some absolute shockers in there haha
 

StCicatriz

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really ...
its easy to be harsh on our team because we have a vested interest in them but look deep at it and you realise that for every Danger or Bont you got Richard Tambling or Mitch Thorp.....

Darren Pfeiffer -Pick 17, 2005
John Meesen - Pick 8, 2004
Fergus Watts - Pick 14, 2003
Laurence Angwin - Pick 7, 2000
Billy Longer - Pick 8, 2011
Sam Docherty - Pick 12 2011
Jared Polec - Pick 5, 2010
Llane Spaanderman - Pick 18, 2003
Josh Bootsma - Pick 22, 2011
Murray Vance - Pick 6, 1998
Danny Roach Pick 7 1999
Nathan Freeman Pick 15
Mitch Thorp - Pick 6, 2006
Beau Dowler - Pick 6, 2005
Barry Brooks - Pick 15, 2001
Lewis Johnston - Pick 12, 2008
Patrick Veszpremi - Pick 11, 2007
Daniel O'Keefe - Pick 15, 2006
Chris Egan - Pick 10, 2004
Tony Notte - Pick 20, 2007
Tim Walsh - Pick 4, 2002
Adam Thompson - pick 11 2004
Danny Meyer - pick 12 2004
Scott Gumbleton pick 2 2006
Marcus Drum pick 10 2005
Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls pick 8 2005

i could go on but i cant be bothered researching it ...
now do pick 1

also missing the trade renumeration from some

i get it, hence why i am asking about pick 1. there's not a "bust" rate at pick 1. at worst you get a GOP. at the absolute worst. as you slide down the pick order that bust rate increases. hence why you have more picks > pick 10 and not one pick inside the top 3
 

gringo2011

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really ...
its easy to be harsh on our team because we have a vested interest in them but look deep at it and you realise that for every Danger or Bont you got Richard Tambling or Mitch Thorp.....

Darren Pfeiffer -Pick 17, 2005
John Meesen - Pick 8, 2004
Fergus Watts - Pick 14, 2003
Laurence Angwin - Pick 7, 2000
Billy Longer - Pick 8, 2011
Sam Docherty - Pick 12 2011
Jared Polec - Pick 5, 2010
Llane Spaanderman - Pick 18, 2003
Josh Bootsma - Pick 22, 2011
Murray Vance - Pick 6, 1998
Danny Roach Pick 7 1999
Nathan Freeman Pick 15
Mitch Thorp - Pick 6, 2006
Beau Dowler - Pick 6, 2005
Barry Brooks - Pick 15, 2001
Lewis Johnston - Pick 12, 2008
Patrick Veszpremi - Pick 11, 2007
Daniel O'Keefe - Pick 15, 2006
Chris Egan - Pick 10, 2004
Tony Notte - Pick 20, 2007
Tim Walsh - Pick 4, 2002
Adam Thompson - pick 11 2004
Danny Meyer - pick 12 2004
Scott Gumbleton pick 2 2006
Marcus Drum pick 10 2005
Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls pick 8 2005

i could go on but i cant be bothered researching it ...

Sam Docherty is a super star apart from the knee injuries. Polec is still A grade too. A sh*t load of those guys were injury busts too.
 

gringo2011

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This is true for the "unsuccessful" clubs like Melbourne and St,Kilda and until recently Bulldogs and Richmond. Look at Essendon, their draft picks are so overrated by their media propaganda unit that every year their stars are propelling them to be a top four team.

Also Rayner has been shielded by being in Brisbane and Brisbane going north on the ladder while Melbourne has been poor, looked great in 2018 and then have struggled again.

Anyway can we have Brayshaw or Oliver please?

Essendon have a good list they are mentally broken from their cheating program. There is no way that their list should not be playing finals. They have a sh*t coach and have had bad injury luck but they find ways to lose it seems.
 

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George

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now do pick 1

also missing the trade renumeration from some

i get it, hence why i am asking about pick 1. there's not a "bust" rate at pick 1. at worst you get a GOP. at the absolute worst. as you slide down the pick order that bust rate increases. hence why you have more picks > pick 10 and not one pick inside the top 3
Give it a go st_trav_ofWA , would be interesting to see if any player selected at 1 has done less than McCartin.
 

st_trav_ofWA

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now do pick 1

also missing the trade renumeration from some

i get it, hence why i am asking about pick 1. there's not a "bust" rate at pick 1. at worst you get a GOP. at the absolute worst. as you slide down the pick order that bust rate increases. hence why you have more picks > pick 10 and not one pick inside the top 3
so we got ...
now do pick 1

also missing the trade renumeration from some

i get it, hence why i am asking about pick 1. there's not a "bust" rate at pick 1. at worst you get a GOP. at the absolute worst. as you slide down the pick order that bust rate increases. hence why you have more picks > pick 10 and not one pick inside the top 3
1990
Stephen HooperGeelongEast PerthWAFL
1991
John HuttonBrisbane BearsClaremontWAFL
1992
Drew BanfieldWest Coast EaglesSubiacoWAFL
1993
Darren GasparSydneySouth FremantleWAFL
1994
Jeff WhiteFremantleDandenong StingraysTAC Cup
1995
Clive WaterhouseFremantlePort Adelaide MagpiesSANFL
1996
Michael GardinerWest Coast EaglesClaremontWAFL
1997
Travis JohnstoneMelbourneDandenong StingraysTAC Cup
1998
Des HeadlandBrisbane LionsSubiacoWAFL
1999
Josh FraserCollingwoodMurray BushrangersTAC Cup
2000
Nick RiewoldtSt KildaSouthport SharksQAFL
2001
Luke HodgeHawthornGeelong FalconsTAC Cup
2002
Brendon GoddardSt KildaGippsland PowerTAC Cup
2003
Adam CooneyWestern BulldogsWest AdelaideSANFL
2004
Brett DeledioRichmondMurray BushrangersTAC Cup
2005
Marc MurphyCarltonOakleigh ChargersTAC Cup
2006
Bryce GibbsCarltonGlenelgSANFL
2007
Matthew KreuzerCarltonNorthern KnightsTAC Cup
2008
Jack WattsMelbourneSandringham DragonsTAC Cup
2009
Tom ScullyMelbourneDandenong StingraysTAC Cup
2010
David SwallowGold CoastEast Fremantle Football ClubWAFL
2011
Jonathon PattonGreater Western SydneyEastern RangesTAC Cup
2012
Lachie WhitfieldGreater Western SydneyDandenong StingraysTAC Cup
2013
Tom BoydGreater Western SydneyEastern RangesTAC Cup
2014
Paddy McCartinSt KildaGeelong FalconsTAC Cup
2015
Jacob WeiteringCarltonDandenong StingraysTAC Cup
2016
Andrew McGrathEssendonSandringham DragonsTAC Cup
2017
Cameron RaynerBrisbane LionsWestern JetsTAC Cup
2018
Sam WalshCarltonGeelong FalconsTAC Cup
2019
Matthew RowellGold CoastOakleigh ChargersNAB League

Patton was a dud, Boyd was a dud, Paddy was a dud , Waterhouse a dud, Fraser a dud, Hooper a dud, Hutton a dud....
 

StCicatriz

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also worth looking at Trouts draft record... also worth noting years of tenure for Libba, who eventually takes over.

the more seasoned Libba gets i reckon the better the strike rate gets, but that's just a guess.
 

st_trav_ofWA

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Sam Docherty is a super star apart from the knee injuries. Polec is still A grade too. A sh*t load of those guys were injury busts too.
Polec came good at his third club but was a dud pick for the lions ....
and of course injury busts are going to be counted i mean the reason Paddy was such a bust was because of injury as well ... thats the whole point its a stab in the dark that hopefully maybe th kid that gets picked turns out somewhat ok ...
 

Cooksen

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Jack Watts stands out there.

Two different discussions on McCartin's output for a #1 pick to if it was the right call for us or not. Still interesting to have a look at.
Watts was thrown to the wolves and was the wrong pick for Melbourne.

Nic Nat would have still been a gun imo but Watts would have been far better going to West Coast.
 

StCicatriz

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so we got ...

1990
Stephen HooperGeelongEast PerthWAFL
1991
John HuttonBrisbane BearsClaremontWAFL
1992
Drew BanfieldWest Coast EaglesSubiacoWAFL
1993
Darren GasparSydneySouth FremantleWAFL
1994
Jeff WhiteFremantleDandenong StingraysTAC Cup
1995
Clive WaterhouseFremantlePort Adelaide MagpiesSANFL
1996
Michael GardinerWest Coast EaglesClaremontWAFL
1997
Travis JohnstoneMelbourneDandenong StingraysTAC Cup
1998
Des HeadlandBrisbane LionsSubiacoWAFL
1999
Josh FraserCollingwoodMurray BushrangersTAC Cup
2000
Nick RiewoldtSt KildaSouthport SharksQAFL
2001
Luke HodgeHawthornGeelong FalconsTAC Cup
2002
Brendon GoddardSt KildaGippsland PowerTAC Cup
2003
Adam CooneyWestern BulldogsWest AdelaideSANFL
2004
Brett DeledioRichmondMurray BushrangersTAC Cup
2005
Marc MurphyCarltonOakleigh ChargersTAC Cup
2006
Bryce GibbsCarltonGlenelgSANFL
2007
Matthew KreuzerCarltonNorthern KnightsTAC Cup
2008
Jack WattsMelbourneSandringham DragonsTAC Cup
2009
Tom ScullyMelbourneDandenong StingraysTAC Cup
2010
David SwallowGold CoastEast Fremantle Football ClubWAFL
2011
Jonathon PattonGreater Western SydneyEastern RangesTAC Cup
2012
Lachie WhitfieldGreater Western SydneyDandenong StingraysTAC Cup
2013
Tom BoydGreater Western SydneyEastern RangesTAC Cup
2014
Paddy McCartinSt KildaGeelong FalconsTAC Cup
2015
Jacob WeiteringCarltonDandenong StingraysTAC Cup
2016
Andrew McGrathEssendonSandringham DragonsTAC Cup
2017
Cameron RaynerBrisbane LionsWestern JetsTAC Cup
2018
Sam WalshCarltonGeelong FalconsTAC Cup
2019
Matthew RowellGold CoastOakleigh ChargersNAB League

Patton was a dud, Boyd was a dud, Paddy was a dud , Waterhouse a dud, Fraser a dud, Hooper a dud, Hutton a dud....
anything pre 2000 can't compare to 2014. hell even 2004 isn't compareable to 2014. you are probably wondering why?

because access to talent review and spotting was just so damn inferior. for example on the various draft podcasts they have had list managers or or those who worked in the industry explain what it was like to identify players back in the day.

for example even Xavier Clark was picked off the back of a VHS video that was like and i quote "you were watching FIFA where you had the cheat codes".

fast forward to 2014 and you have games literally coded for you by champion data. you have people performing modelling now. you have teams of recruiters. you have every games footage.

now you have an emphasis on U16 and U17 footy, given future trading. so that talent identification has gone back further.

so that scrubs off the list fraser (200+ games), waterhouse (190+ games), Hooper + Hutton (90s jeebus that far back).

now on Boyd and Patton. Boyd got GWS picks Pick 6 and Griffen. Patton still got them 89 games and 130 goals and then a 4th round pick.

in comparison Paddy got us 35 games and 34 goals and no trade renumeration.

in fact he'd be very close to the least number of games played for a pick 1.
 

StCicatriz

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Jack Watts stands out there.

Two different discussions on McCartin's output for a #1 pick to if it was the right call for us or not. Still interesting to have a look at.
you reckon?

i actually thought Jack Watts started to play some good footy for melbourne before he was traded.

but anyways he still produced a 150 games and 143 goals. then got them pick 31.

far exceeds Paddy's output.
 

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