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I doubt if there would have been many people who had 3 wins and had bet on the Hawks who would have taken the cash out option. Might have got a few nervous nellies cashing out in the third quarter when they got back to 25 points and looked the better team for 10 minutes. Although I can see why thinking "a bird in the hand" could make losing about $40 on your bet seem a more attractive prospect than potentially losing the whole thing.
Hmm, not really a bet. More like I'm giving them a loan with 400% interest p.a.
Is that just to make AA?Hmm, not really a bet. More like I'm giving them a loan with 400% interest p.a.
I should have asked this 3 months ago but did you let this ride? I can't remember the odds for the GF on the day but if they were offering $300 cash out you could have taken that and still backed the hawks for a profit (albeit smaller but a win is a win), or alternatively, let it ride and back the Weagles and the draw so you'd at least get your $50 back.
Good luck.As a worker in the O&G industry, the drop in oil price has given me a stark reminder of the lack of security in my profession. About a year ago i started investigating the stock market as an alternate source of income. It didn’t take me long to realise I was out of my depth. In a moment of exasperation I muttered to myself “I’d be better off betting on footy”. I bumbled along for a while but eventually gave up as I could see it was only going to result in me losing money, see: https://xkcd.com/1570/
Not long after that I stumbled upon a couple of professional gambling blogs. I read a couple of articles and they got me thinking about whether sportsbetting was a viable alternative. I already spend too much time reading about footy, maybe I can turn that into a little bit of profit?
I don’t have the bank size to be following tipsters, so I needed to follow my strengths, at least to begin with.
Over the last few years I’ve averaged about 6.3-5 tips per round, which has been enough to see me challenge the top 10-15 at my work’s footy tipping comp (out of around 6-700). The lowest I have tipped in a round is 4 (once). The highest is 9 (3 times). The most common is 6, then 7, then 5, then 8.
If I bet on every game, I need to average 1.42 winning odds to break even. Having back checked my results, I feel this is achievable. If I bet on every game, I risk my entire bank. My worst ever week would have cost me 40% of my bank. My most common week (6) is a slight loss. My best ever weeks would have just about doubled my bank (x1.85 on average). I have more good weeks than bad. This seems plausible?
So how much am I willing to gamble? I’m going to start with $10 a game – so $90 in total – and see where it gets me.
My strategy:
My Goals:
- Every dollar and tip will be tracked.
- $10 a game from round 1, 2016
- Bet on every game
- All winnings are reinvested for the following round
- Take advantage of sign-up bonuses to quickly build my bank and mitigate risk – there are 20 or so bookies in Aus, one for each round
- Bet on who i think will win
I’ll be tracking everything I do and refining my predictions to get that tips per week average up towards 7 (hopefully above!). I’ll also be tracking my tips against potentially more profitable tipping strategies based on likelihood versus market odds, ie value hunting.
- $90 in round 1 becomes $5000 by round 23 (expecting sign-up bonuses to play a big part here)
- Year 1 is about building a database and a bank and refining my predictive technique
- $5000 becomes $18000 by round 23, 2017
- Year 2 is about putting lessons learned from year 1 into practice and building the bank further
- From $18,000 ($2000 per game), any profit becomes, well, profit. 5% average weekly return will bring in $900 a week.
- Year 3 and onwards are about continuous refinement and profit. By round 23 2018 I hope to have a new car in the garage.
I’ll report progress in this thread. If there is enough interest I’ll start a new thread to track the progress. What I won’t report is who I tipped, as I fell that can only lead to bad things. If anyone has any thoughts or suggestions I’d love to hear them. This is all a massive experiment that in the end can only cost me $90. I’m sure the learning curve will be massive, but I’m looking forward to giving it a red hot crack!
As a worker in the O&G industry, the drop in oil price has given me a stark reminder of the lack of security in my profession. About a year ago i started investigating the stock market as an alternate source of income. It didn’t take me long to realise I was out of my depth. In a moment of exasperation I muttered to myself “I’d be better off betting on footy”. I bumbled along for a while but eventually gave up as I could see it was only going to result in me losing money, see: https://xkcd.com/1570/
Not long after that I stumbled upon a couple of professional gambling blogs. I read a couple of articles and they got me thinking about whether sportsbetting was a viable alternative. I already spend too much time reading about footy, maybe I can turn that into a little bit of profit?
I don’t have the bank size to be following tipsters, so I needed to follow my strengths, at least to begin with.
Over the last few years I’ve averaged about 6.3-5 tips per round, which has been enough to see me challenge the top 10-15 at my work’s footy tipping comp (out of around 6-700). The lowest I have tipped in a round is 4 (once). The highest is 9 (3 times). The most common is 6, then 7, then 5, then 8.
If I bet on every game, I need to average 1.42 winning odds to break even. Having back checked my results, I feel this is achievable. If I bet on every game, I risk my entire bank. My worst ever week would have cost me 40% of my bank. My most common week (6) is a slight loss. My best ever weeks would have just about doubled my bank (x1.85 on average). I have more good weeks than bad. This seems plausible?
So how much am I willing to gamble? I’m going to start with $10 a game – so $90 in total – and see where it gets me.
My strategy:
My Goals:
- Every dollar and tip will be tracked.
- $10 a game from round 1, 2016
- Bet on every game
- All winnings are reinvested for the following round
- Take advantage of sign-up bonuses to quickly build my bank and mitigate risk – there are 20 or so bookies in Aus, one for each round
- Bet on who i think will win
I’ll be tracking everything I do and refining my predictions to get that tips per week average up towards 7 (hopefully above!). I’ll also be tracking my tips against potentially more profitable tipping strategies based on likelihood versus market odds, ie value hunting.
- $90 in round 1 becomes $5000 by round 23 (expecting sign-up bonuses to play a big part here)
- Year 1 is about building a database and a bank and refining my predictive technique
- $5000 becomes $18000 by round 23, 2017
- Year 2 is about putting lessons learned from year 1 into practice and building the bank further
- From $18,000 ($2000 per game), any profit becomes, well, profit. 5% average weekly return will bring in $900 a week.
- Year 3 and onwards are about continuous refinement and profit. By round 23 2018 I hope to have a new car in the garage.
I’ll report progress in this thread. If there is enough interest I’ll start a new thread to track the progress. What I won’t report is who I tipped, as I fell that can only lead to bad things. If anyone has any thoughts or suggestions I’d love to hear them. This is all a massive experiment that in the end can only cost me $90. I’m sure the learning curve will be massive, but I’m looking forward to giving it a red hot crack!
I live in WA.
