Prediction PAFC Punters' Thread
- Thread starter TheFVK
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BIG BILLY F
All Australian
- Jan 15, 2016
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Gamblor has me already
So i posted a little earlier on the offseason about setting up a predictive model for afl games this year amd using to make a little money on the side. A little experiment to combine my love of statistics and footy.
Last update had my model sitting at 100%, 7 games into the nab challenge.
Since then the model has gone:
NAB1: 6/6
NAB2: 1/6
NAB3: 2/5
NAB4: 8/9
I learned a lot from the nab challenge, ironed most of the bugs and discovered some weaknesses in the way my model has been set up. The most interesting lesson however is in the long run it will probably be more useful fpr betting the line than head to head.
Out of 18 games so far (in the season proper) it has only predicted one underdog to win, demons 52% v gws 48%. But it has shown that some games are a lot closer than the market suggests:
Richmond 51% v carlton 49%
Richmond 51% v collingwood 49%
I am 4 from 5 50/50 games so far.
So, progress so far.
R1:
8/9 correct
90 invested, 118 returned
32% profit
Lets keep the good times rolling.
Last update had my model sitting at 100%, 7 games into the nab challenge.
Since then the model has gone:
NAB1: 6/6
NAB2: 1/6
NAB3: 2/5
NAB4: 8/9
I learned a lot from the nab challenge, ironed most of the bugs and discovered some weaknesses in the way my model has been set up. The most interesting lesson however is in the long run it will probably be more useful fpr betting the line than head to head.
Out of 18 games so far (in the season proper) it has only predicted one underdog to win, demons 52% v gws 48%. But it has shown that some games are a lot closer than the market suggests:
Richmond 51% v carlton 49%
Richmond 51% v collingwood 49%
I am 4 from 5 50/50 games so far.
So, progress so far.
R1:
8/9 correct
90 invested, 118 returned
32% profit
Lets keep the good times rolling.
The line for the Crows reserves v Port Magpies is -32.5
I thought that would be the line for HT
Giddy up!!!!
I thought that would be the line for HT
Giddy up!!!!
- Mar 3, 2014
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- dallas cowboys ferrari f1
I've got the line at about 100...The line for the Crows reserves v Port Magpies is -32.5
I thought that would be the line for HT
Giddy up!!!!
thankyou for this public service announcementThe line for the Crows reserves v Port Magpies is -32.5
I thought that would be the line for HT
Giddy up!!!!
Total Points for the match on SB seems good value currently at 184.5pts paying 1.88 for over that total. Looking at last season match between us 2 it seems very thin.
Also looking at both games this season so far for us the total match scores have both been 200+. 233 vs St Kilda and 230 vs Adelaide.
Could be a good multi filler for the round.
Also looking at both games this season so far for us the total match scores have both been 200+. 233 vs St Kilda and 230 vs Adelaide.
Could be a good multi filler for the round.
Ugh, what a shocking week. Unlike last week, 3 out of 4 50/50 games went against me. And melbourne. Bloody hell.
Model predicted 3/9.
118 invested for 51 returned.
Profit -59%
Lessons learnned:
Will need to incorporate gamestyle and home ground advantage into the model somehow. Will require some thinking.
Not going to knee jerk into chasing value at the expense of accuracy just yet. If i had been chasing value these past two weeks i'd be in the same spot as i am now as my win this week would have been balanced by a big loss in week 1.
Dealing with loss. I lost 60% this week. That's bad. Some tweaks to the method required in the future however that's gambling amd i started small so i could learn and limit losses. I committed my money for the season and so far have gotten value out of enjoyment of the excercise alone. Win win. I think i'll refer back to this for some perspective later in the season.
- Jan 30, 2013
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is your system producing probabilities of win or scores?
- Jan 30, 2013
- 16,166
- 16,559
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
it may be a good exercise to research the maths behind the bookmakers way to make money to better understand how to take money off them. as an overview they also set winning probabilites and then "take their cut" and inverse the probabilities to produce odds. you won't find anything on their systems but more a general overview of how odds are set and how they make money.
Cheers, i've been slowly working through some gambling blogs at the same time. Daily25, Green All Over, Sportpunter. There was only so much reading i could do before i wanted to start doing. If you (or anyone else) know of some other good resources i'd be glad to hear them.
Watching Jason Johannisen go around for he Bulldogs and then hearing on one of the Fox footy shows last night mention that he probably has 4 Brownlow votes already saw me check out his odds on Sportsbet. He was paying $150. I chucked on $100. 15 minutes later he was at $81, with Cash out option offering me a $130 payout - instant $30 profit.
At these odds, I wonder how much needs to be placed collectively to see the odds drop so much. Bit of group betting could see the odds plummet and allow a quick cash out for a profit. Like the old sharemarket pump and dump strategy.
As it stands, the cash out payout has been adjusted to $116 today. I'm going to let it ride.
At these odds, I wonder how much needs to be placed collectively to see the odds drop so much. Bit of group betting could see the odds plummet and allow a quick cash out for a profit. Like the old sharemarket pump and dump strategy.
As it stands, the cash out payout has been adjusted to $116 today. I'm going to let it ride.
Schulzenfest
TheBrownDog
Putting bets on rank outsiders to win the Brownlow is an absolute mug's game. Jason Johanissen is a very good player, he's going to have a very good year, and he'll probably get more Brownlow votes than anybody is expecting, but he's not going to win the ****ing thing. The Brownlow goes to (in theory) the best player in the league, and it should go without saying Jason Johanissen is not the best player in the league. Cash out now.
Same goes for those few silly people on the board talking about putting money on the likes of Hamish Hartlett or even Sam Gray for the Brownlow. You may as well just flush your money down the toilet now.
Doctor Feel
Shitposter In Chief
Just how bad we are currently.
My main point was the cash out option with Sportsbet is potentially open to some manipulation, not bragging about some long shot that is yet to leave the starting gate.
Putting bets on the Brownlow for any player at this stage of the year is a mugs game. Only an MRP decision or season ending injury away from losing the lot.
In fact, betting and gambling in general is a mugs game. You may win here and there, but there are not too many that genuinely walk away winners, unless of course you have inside knowledge or are a bookie.
But I enjoy a punt here and there, gamble within limits, and am happy to be labelled a mug
Robbie4PM
All Australian
- May 18, 2015
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The percentage they offer on cash out is so low, would not advise manipulating it to try and win money.
Live betting is a better way to do it as they completely run on the original odds and the current score with a fomula. They don't see momentum changes or if a team is just getting unlucky. Unfortunately the market % for live betting isn't great either but it's better than cashing out
I suspect this would only work on players that you correctly identified as being value-bets, and which need to be re-evaluated. When you give them a $15k liability like you did with your bet then it probably triggers some kind of human assessment, especially when the total-amount bet on the Brownlow so far would be relatitvely low. If you whacked big money on someone who was correctly-priced then you're probably not going to get the big fluctuation needed to make money thru cash-out and they'd be happy to keep taking your bets.
Robbie4PM
All Australian
- May 18, 2015
- 836
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Also what they'll do if the bet is big enough is they will claim "incorrect price" and refund your stake. Seen sportsbet do this alot when dogs are overs, as well as a couple sport markets.
I might chuck a small wager on them myself. Come out winning either way then. (mek minnut it'll be a draw).
Has came in from 54 Sunday
- Mar 3, 2014
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Essendon are mostly a bunch of scrubbers that really shouldn't be on an afl list. Even with the outs we should win comfortably, I fear for Ken and the whole coaching staff if we lose the unlosable to these scrubbers at home on a Friday night game in front of a national audience. The embarrassment facing the club would be that equal of 'that' gf and 'that' loss to Gold Coast and 'that' loss to gws.
We won't lose this. Keep backing Essendon please and force those odds out....
Port 40 plus.
We arent that bad.
We won't lose this. Keep backing Essendon please and force those odds out....
Port 40 plus.
We arent that bad.
