List Mgmt. Part 3- And on it goes: The trade and draft megathread

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dkalphy

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Going back to Nic Nat, im a little worried tbh.. His last knee reco the way it happened, really is alarming.. he literally was jogging for position for a boundary ruck contest and did his, i mean it wasnt even an explosive movement... I just hope he can stay healthy because another knee reco is going to be very brutal for him.
 

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Going back to Nic Nat, im a little worried tbh.. His last knee reco the way it happened, really is alarming.. he literally was jogging for position for a boundary ruck contest and did his, i mean it wasnt even an explosive movement... I just hope he can stay healthy because another knee reco is going to be very brutal for him.
His weight was shifted from under him very common way to do your acl
 

dkalphy

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yea true, but its a routine play, was just annoying the low impacting nature that caused it.. i mean on the brightside, tom swift did both his knees as a junior and we all know the career he went on to have... became a dr so im optimistic
 

30stm

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Geelong would want DV, Brander and a 1st round pick as well though
Latest Cats preference for T Kelly trade -

Saturday at 11:32 AMNew #779
The Danger trade is one that can be fairly compared. For example if the eagles offered their first pick their earliest second round pick and a player.
15, 25 and Brayshaw/Cole/fringe player
It isn’t the best deal but it offers feeling a couple of chances to replace a proven star.
 

Keys

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SPS comes from Halls Creek just like Watson
Be amazing to have 2 Halls Creek boys across half back considering Halls C don’t even have a football team.
Interesting that Irving Mosquito And Cox from Brisbane all come from Halls Creek as well.
Halls Creek have a team in the East Kimberley football league which would likely be the largest area covered by a football comp
 

Obeanie1

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He's out of contract.. That is more than what we were offering last year. Do they legit have any conceptual understanding of how trading works? Leverage? Fair value?
If his form continues that is fair.

Chances are 15 will be 18+ and 25 will be 30 after academy and fs picks.

Id hope to keep the Swans 2nd and use ours.

If Kelly's form is as good as it has been or even improves our 2019 plus 2020 firsts with the Cats 2020 2nd coming back would be fair.

Leaves us two 2nds this year and two next year.
 

Pulsedriver

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He's out of contract.. That is more than what we were offering last year. Do they legit have any conceptual understanding of how trading works? Leverage? Fair value?
The five stages: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance are a part of the framework that makes up the learning to live with the one they lost. Geelong fans are experiencing a premature onset of this process given the inevitability of TK leaving.
 

Scotland

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He's out of contract.. That is more than what we were offering last year. Do they legit have any conceptual understanding of how trading works? Leverage? Fair value?
No, no they do not.

Give it a few more weeks and they will actually think they can turn Tim Kelly into Josh Kelly as an effective straight swap.
 

Obeanie1

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The five stages: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance are a part of the framework that makes up the learning to live with the one they lost. Geelong fans are experiencing a premature onset of this process given the inevitability of TK leaving.
That's pretty much a direct quote out of the T Kelly thread last trade period.

Except it was a Cats poster who used it to describe how the Eagles fans were taking the act that Kelly wasn't traded.
 

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Obeanie1

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No, no they do not.

Give it a few more weeks and they will actually think they can turn Tim Kelly into Josh Kelly as an effective straight swap.
If Kelly keeps improving people on here will be surprised how much we will give up to land him.

I don't have an issue in paying fair value or slight overs as we really only want or need top end talent.
 

Scotland

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What do you reckon we should offer that would still get it done?
That depends on how the rest of the season unfolds, and what else we do in trade week.

It's potentially a one horse race, for a guy that is out of contract and has played two seasons at AFL level at age 25. Talk of giving up two first rounders plus is extracting the urine. If Kelly went into the draft Geelong wouldn't redraft him in the first round.

If Kelly keeps improving people on here will be surprised how much we will give up to land him.

I don't have an issue in paying fair value or slight overs as we really only want or need top end talent.
Do you seriously think we're going to give up more than what Geelong paid for Dangerfield?

Who cares about fair value? Geelong wanted an 'exceptional deal' last year, not fair value. Why would we be offering fair value or over and above this year?
 
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Who cares about fair value? Geelong wanted an 'exceptional deal' last year, not fair value. Why would we be offering fair value or over and above this year?
Cos you look like you;re in the slot for a while.
With Allan and Brander you've got your developing talls.

Kelly will be what, 25?

Lets say you go BTB (vom), why wouldn't you take the punt now?
 

Scotland

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Cos you look like you;re in the slot for a while.
With Allan and Brander you've got your developing talls.

Kelly will be what, 25?

Lets say you go BTB (vom), why wouldn't you take the punt now?
We got to this point without 'taking the punt', so the strategy to date has been pretty successful. If we go BTB it will be shown to be even more successful.

2013 we traded pick 6 for picks 11 (drafted Sheed) & 31 (Karpany) and traded pick 28 for Yeo.
2014 we did nothing
2015 we traded Matt Rosa for pick 36, Callum Sinclair for Lewis Jetta, pick 17 (eventual 21) for Jack Redden
2016 we traded in Nathan Vardy and Sam Mitchell for peanuts
2017 we did the Gold Coast pick swap and ended up with 21 (Allen), 26 (Ryan) and 37 (Petruccelle) for eventual pick 22 in 2018
2018 we traded in Tom Hickey for pick 39 and some swapsies

In that time we drafted Sheed (11), Barrass (43), Duggan (11), Cole (36), Venables (13), Rotham (37), Rioli (52), Brander (13), Allen (21), Ryan (26), Petruccelle (37). That's 7 premiership players and 4 others who have played senior footy this year.

I'm not anti getting Kelly at all, we should be right in the hunt. But WC's #1 priority is WC.
 

Max zero

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Cos you look like you;re in the slot for a while.
With Allan and Brander you've got your developing talls.

Kelly will be what, 25?

Lets say you go BTB (vom), why wouldn't you take the punt now?
Because we have never gone well overs for any player.

If we go B2B (cheer) we would be even more reluctant to go overs.
 

Obeanie1

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That depends on how the rest of the season unfolds, and what else we do in trade week.

It's potentially a one horse race, for a guy that is out of contract and has played two seasons at AFL level at age 25. Talk of giving up two first rounders plus is extracting the urine. If Kelly went into the draft Geelong wouldn't redraft him in the first round.



Do you seriously think we're going to give up more than what Geelong paid for Dangerfield?

Who cares about fair value? Geelong wanted an 'exceptional deal' last year, not fair value. Why would we be offering fair value or over and above this year?
Because fair value is not exceptional value. Our fair will be less that the Cats veiw on fair.

Because the Eagles have a history of fair trading.

Because what goes around comes around.

Shafting the Cats to land a gun when we aren't really that desperate is plain short sightedness IMO.
 

Scotland

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If there's no agreed fair value then there's no overs/unders.

What goes around does come around, like getting Dangerfield for pick 9 when every team would give up a top 5 pick to get him.
 

Pulsedriver

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If there's no agreed fair value then there's no overs/unders.

What goes around does come around, like getting Dangerfield for pick 9 when every team would give up a top 5 pick to get him.
You see, Geelong just didn't try hard enough to get a top 5 pick, so they mustn't have wanted him all that much.
 

Scotland

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You'd give a number 1 pick for Dangerfield if you had it.
Yep, but I framed it that way because each team only gets 1 pick every 18.

No point saying a player is worth pick X and then complaining that a team has pick X + 1. Brisbane would've accepted pick 20 for Redden I reckon, maybe even up to 25. We would've been happy to part with about 14/15 onward. If we had 12 and 30 then it wouldn't have been a simple straight swap.

IMO no club except WC or Freo (should whatever behind the scenes issues exist be sorted) would take Tim Kelly in the first round of the 2019 draft given the circumstances that would have to align to get him there. That does frame his value somewhat.
 
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