Restricted Free Agent Patrick Cripps [RFA 2021]

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Ash24

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As long as the points add up, what difference does it make?

You said: "It doesn't matter if it's 200 4th round picks, if the draft value adds up to two 10 picks or whatever the desired outcome, then it's a fair trade."

Picks 23, 26, 27, 29 and 31. That's 3506 points.
Which is where you'd have to go back to my previous comment from yesterday stating that the points system in the draft value index isn't always accurate.

It is usually a good representative of value up for multiple first-rounders (like in the Kelly trade), but once it gets to mid-late second round picks like in your example, it isn't as reliable.
 

Sweet Jesus

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Which is where you'd have to go back to my previous comment from yesterday stating that the points system in the draft value index isn't always accurate.

It is usually a good representative of value up for multiple first-rounders (like in the Kelly trade), but once it gets to mid-late second round picks like in your example, it isn't as reliable.
But you said: "It doesn't matter if it's 200 4th round picks, if the draft value adds up to two 10 picks or whatever the desired outcome, then it's a fair trade."

So 200 fourth-rounders is OK but five second-rounders doesn't cut it?

I can't keep track of what you're saying.

On one hand, you say it's all about the accrued value according to the draft pick index. On the other hand, you say it isn't.

Which one is it?
 

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Ash24

All Australian
Nov 3, 2020
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Carlton
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Melbourne United
But you said: "It doesn't matter if it's 200 4th round picks, if the draft value adds up to two 10 picks or whatever the desired outcome, then it's a fair trade."

So 200 fourth-rounders is OK but five second-rounders doesn't cut it?

I can't keep track of what you're saying.

On one hand, you say it's all about the accrued value according to the draft pick index. On the other hand, you say it isn't.

Which one is it?
If the late picks add up to the desired outcome, then it's a fair trade. BUT as I mentioned just before, the further out you go in the draft order the less reliable the value index is.

Personally, if we were to get the 5 early second-rounders you mentioned, it wouldn't be that bad.
 

Yeti

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Yeti what are you laughing at? Ash24 reckons it's a fair trade as long as the draft points add up to the same amount. Are you suggesting otherwise?

I also have some magic beans to sell.
I generally laugh anytime anyone uses points as trade value. He clearly has little clue.

I can't see Cripps leaving and if he does it will likely be telegraphed like Judd / Dangerfield was. He will use family as the reason and will pick whichever club suits him best.

If he chooses West Coast they will bend over backwards to get him in terms of draft capital plus players as they are in the window and let's face it, their draft picks will likely be in the 15-20 range as a 1st rounder.

If he were to choose Freo they would pay a decent value but he doesn't really fit their list profile. Mundy only has 5-6 years left and Fyfe probably less. Reality is Fyfe's only hope of a flag is in the Shane Crawford mould, I don't think Cripps gets them closer to a flag. They still don't have a forward line.
 

Sweet Jesus

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I generally laugh anytime anyone uses points as trade value. He clearly has little clue.
That's very unkind.

I can't see Cripps leaving and if he does it will likely be telegraphed like Judd / Dangerfield was. He will use family as the reason and will pick whichever club suits him best.

If he chooses West Coast they will bend over backwards to get him in terms of draft capital plus players as they are in the window and let's face it, their draft picks will likely be in the 15-20 range as a 1st rounder.

If he were to choose Freo they would pay a decent value but he doesn't really fit their list profile. Mundy only has 5-6 years left and Fyfe probably less. Reality is Fyfe's only hope of a flag is in the Shane Crawford mould, I don't think Cripps gets them closer to a flag. They still don't have a forward line.
I think he'll stay put.

If he were to leave and choose WC, bear in mind that WC have some restrictions on trading first-rounders. We haven't used one since 2017 so I think we're compelled to use one at the end of 2021. Assuming Carlton were to force a trade, WC would have to get creative, probably needing to secure another first-rounder somehow and then packaging that up with a future first and go from there.

I'd probably prefer WC to use some first-round picks in the draft and then try to poach some WA kids who were drafted a few years ago without overpaying. Basically replicate the Yeo trade as much as possible. Someone like Jeremy Sharp from GC, for example. Drafted at #27 in 2019. Played two games last year. Maybe he adds a few more in 2021. But if he wants out at the end of this year, a pick in the 30s probably gets it done. That's the kind of deal WC should be sniffing out IMO. That's where you get value.

Of course you'd welcome a player like Cripps but I'm not actually sure it would be a great move for WC long-term when you consider Cripps' age and the likely cost. In some ways, he might actually appeal more to Freo, given their age profile. They've got a young midfield and they want to play Fyfe forward more often. Fyfe will be 30 at the end of this season. Cripps would fit in nicely alongside Brayshaw, Cerra and Serong, who are all 20-22.
 
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Yeti

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That's very unkind.

I think he'll stay put.

If he were to leave and choose WC, bear in mind that WC have some restrictions on trading first-rounders. We haven't used one since 2017 so I think we're compelled to use one at the end of 2021. Assuming Carlton were to force a trade, WC would have to get creative, probably needing to secure another first-rounder somehow and then packaging that up with a future first and go from there.

Of course you'd welcome a player like Cripps but I'm not actually sure it would be a great move for WC long-term when you consider Cripps' age and the likely cost. In some ways, he might actually appeal more to Freo, given their age profile. They've got a young midfield and they want to play Fyfe forward more often. Fyfe will be 30 at the end of this season. Cripps would fit in nicely alongside Brayshaw, Cerra and Serong, who are all 20-22.
If Fyfe was a good forward he would be a good forward by now. Everyone talks about his aerial prowess but he is not a good forward.

Bizzare that a player as good as Cripps isn't seen as a huge priority for WC or Freo by some of their fans. I kind of feel like you don't want too many of his type in a side (contested bull, questionable kick). WC and Freo both have enough of those types, I don't watch WC enough to understand their list profile I figured he would be a better fit in a win now style of side.

I reckon Freo are 3-4 away from challenging for a flag. Brayshaw, Cerra and Serong are still a few away from being the A graders they have the potential to become.

Cripps will likely stay at Carlton.
 

Sweet Jesus

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If Fyfe was a good forward he would be a good forward by now. Everyone talks about his aerial prowess but he is not a good forward.
Some folks on the Freo board disagree.

Bizzare that a player as good as Cripps isn't seen as a huge priority for WC or Freo by some of their fans.
It's the cost in trade terms. WC are probably a season away from a slight reset in terms of the list. I wouldn't say it'll be a rebuild when Hurn and Kennedy retire but there may be some re-evalutation of whether the list is absolutely in the window or needs tweaking with further development/recruitment in some areas. To put two more first-rounders (at least) on the table for Cripps, essentially doubling down in the pursuit of immediate success, contains an element of risk. If it pans out that way, I guess you strap in and hope it pays off, but I have some misgivings.

And like you say, Freo might feel they're not close enough to bring in someone Cripps' age. Maybe if they improve this year and play finals that calculation shifts.

I kind of feel like you don't want too many of his type in a side (contested bull, questionable kick). WC and Freo both have enough of those types, I don't watch WC enough to understand their list profile I figured he would be a better fit in a win now style of side.
I don't think that's so much the issue for WC, although the addition of Cripps might mean the likes of Hutchings and maybe Redden need to look elsewhere.

It's still the cost that is my main concern, given the overall demographics of WC's list.

I reckon Freo are 3-4 away from challenging for a flag. Brayshaw, Cerra and Serong are still a few away from being the A graders they have the potential to become.
Yeah, that's why I think Freo would need to make serious advances this year, maybe play finals. And then Cripps becomes a more viable consideration.
 

Yeti

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Some folks on the Freo board disagree.
Yeah, I have been pretty clear on my views with Fyfe playing forward, even on the Freo board. Why take one of the best contested players in the history of our game and try and make him a forward? Especially when he doesn't have a history of being a better than average goal kicker.

It's the cost in trade terms. WC are probably a season away from a slight reset in terms of the list. I wouldn't say it'll be a rebuild when Hurn and Kennedy retire but there may be some re-evalutation of whether the list is absolutely in the window or needs tweaking with further development/recruitment in some areas. To put two more first-rounders (at least) on the table for Cripps, essentially doubling down in the pursuit of immediate success, contains an element of risk. If it pans out that way, I guess you strap in and hope it pays off, but I have some misgivings.
Understandable but didn't West Coast put a heap of trade capital into Tim Kelly? Makes sense to go all out and try and snag a flag while Kennedy & Natianui

And like you say, Freo might feel they're not close enough to bring in someone Cripps' age. Maybe if they improve this year and play finals that calculation shifts.

I don't think that's so much the issue for WC, although the addition of Cripps might mean the likes of Hutchings and maybe Redden need to look elsewhere.

It's still the cost that is my main concern, given the overall demographics of WC's list.

Yeah, that's why I think Freo would need to make serious advances this year, maybe play finals. And then Cripps becomes a more viable consideration.
I doubt Freo are making finals. No forward line makes it really tough. Neither team are really crying out for Cripps when you consider how much he would cost in salary (likely $1,000,000+) and trade capital. Both clubs would take him but he would likely be going as a Dangerfield style "Get me home" deal where he isn't taking open market value.
 

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Sweet Jesus

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Understandable but didn't West Coast put a heap of trade capital into Tim Kelly? Makes sense to go all out and try and snag a flag while Kennedy & Natianui
Yeah, they did. But that probably makes it a tougher sell to do it again two years later. How many first-rounders can one team trade out over the course of 3 or 4 years before it bites them?

This is probably Kennedy's last year so that won't be a factor.

I doubt Freo are making finals. No forward line makes it really tough. Neither team are really crying out for Cripps when you consider how much he would cost in salary (likely $1,000,000+) and trade capital. Both clubs would take him but he would likely be going as a Dangerfield style "Get me home" deal where he isn't taking open market value.
The deal would need to be an improvement on the FA compo, so you're looking at two first-rounders minimum, I would have thought.

The exception would be if Carlton have another terrible year and suddenly the compo is a pick in the top five. Maybe they'd take that, as GC did for Lynch.
 

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