Peak Oil

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Sandola said:
I'm a complete dolt about this sort of thing, but just googling raw materials of plastics brings up encyclopedia-entry-like sites that seem to agree that oil and natural gas are the major raw materials of plastics. Is this wrong?

Anyhow, how is peak oil bad news? Anything that gets us off our petroleum jones is surely a good thing, given that global warming promises worse devastation than any consequence of having no oil. (Although it does somehow seem like a choice between getting seriously old and dying.)
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How is Peak oil bad? Well if we get a 400% price increase in 6 months like we did in Oct 73 to March 1974 or a 200% increase like in 1979 and we get inflation over 10%, interest rates over 10%, Unemployment over 10% and growth down to bugger all or negative then we are going to have a lot of pissed off people who might actually be pissed off about more than not being able to buy the latest plasma, take a holiday o's every year and not using the credit card. Then if the poor bastards who live on bugger all per day see what little food they can buy because of a doubling and tripling in prices because petrol goes up and is compounded because farmers are switching from growing food to growing more profitable bio fuel crops you might have one angry planet. A bit extreme, I know, but when people get to the point that they can't afford to buy food, well then interesting things start to happen.
 
Sure, all that. But how is the collapse of civilisation worse than the collapse of civilisation plus the collapse of the ecosystem (aka, in our nightmares, the end of the world)? I guess my point was that massive social/economic instability is inevitable in both cases, given, as you said "no western government is going to tell its voters it can't have what they want especially if they can afford it". But the global collapse is, in the not-very-much-longer term, by far the worse outcome. And having our oil cut off may be the prod we need to get serious about alternatives.
 
RussellEbertHandball said:
I don't think you understand Peak Oil. Peak Oil will mean rationing not running out completely. Straight after WWII there was plenty of oil. But producing oil and refining it was limited because there wasn't a lot of investment so in many of the nations that won the war the governments rationed it's use. The Menzies opposition policy of getting rid of petrol rationing was one of the main reasons (there were others) it won the 1949 election. This will be a reverse 1949 situation.

Peak Oil will see us go back to the 70s and 80s when OPEC set the price and the rest followed. Oil Markets will be controlled just like other essential goods are controlled by governments.

Why is their no effort to stop using it? Because no western government is going to tell its voters it can't have what they want especially if they can afford it. Water is different, it's fundamental to life. Oil is only fundamental to a western lifestyle.
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The more I read what you say Russell they more it makes sense to me that Oil Supply is more an Economic or "Control" supply issue than an Ecological supply issue. That is my point.

I realise Peak Oil dos not mean none at all but a diminished and controlled supply. However it wont be our (western) Governments that control it, it will be OPEC and the corporations who are linked to them.
 

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morell said:
Interesting (and heavy) article that perhaps raises an alternate viewpoint;

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8878

pretty much stipulates that oil price is controlled by 4 major oil companies;
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Good job, morell. I was about to post that article myself.

As for me, I really don't know what to believe. There seems to be a lot of different opinions and a lot of speculation. Neither am I going to just believe everything I read/hear in the media because I am only too aware of how it is controlled by vested interests and how truth is so often suppressed.

Interestingly, I don't think I saw the word "shale" mentioned on this thread once.
 
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Ford Fairlane said:
The problem with oil shale is its high energy and water intensive production process, and it's relatively uneconomical production costs, with toxic by-products.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/5885419.html

http://ostseis.anl.gov/guide/oilshale/index.cfm

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2005/09/oil_shale_retor.html
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Yeah Ford, all that is true and a problem, but it's amazing what pressures come on to Governments when certain supplies are needed.

The other thing is that the technology for extracting oil from shale sands is relatively new in the industry and from what I have seen that these guys are capable of, then who knows what techniques will be used in the future, particularly if the price of oil stays high and normal supply diminishes.
 
So what is it for a litre of petrol back home these days? Has it gone down lately?

While everything else seems to be sinking to an all time low over here in the US, one thing that is showing a glimmer of hope is the petrol.

About two weeks ago we would have been paying about $4.15 a gallon, now its $3.05 a gallon. The way its going we will be below $3 a gallon by the weekend.

Of course my SUV doesn't need a drop of petrol right now, give it a week though and the prices will probably be through the roof again.
 
blackdiamond said:
So what is it for a litre of petrol back home these days? Has it gone down lately?

While everything else seems to be sinking to an all time low over here in the US, one thing that is showing a glimmer of hope is the petrol.

About two weeks ago we would have been paying about $4.15 a gallon, now its $3.05 a gallon. The way its going we will be below $3 a gallon by the weekend.

Of course my SUV doesn't need a drop of petrol right now, give it a week though and the prices will probably be through the roof again.
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Still round the 1.55-7 mark today. I got it for 1.48 yesterday though.

AUD is around 0.65USD mark so we have not benefited in the drop in oil price, was in the 90cent range a few weeks ago and talk of parity at that stage.

Goes to show the price of oil is economics, not ecological though....
 
Geoffa32 said:
AUD is around 0.65USD mark so we have not benefited in the drop in oil price, was in the 90cent range a few weeks ago and talk of parity at that stage.
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Wow, I'm glad I moved all my money over to the US when I did, just hope the Aussie dollar really sucks when I return home, one day in the future, whenever that is.
 
Supposedly we have reached Peak Oil.

From Thursday's AM program on ABC radio

http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2011/s3202056.htm

Crunch time for oil supplies

PETER CAVE: One major indicator of inflation is the price of petrol and the latest information from the International Energy Agency shows it's only going to get more expensive.

The association's chief economist says the world's crude oil production peaked in 2006, which is likely to drive prices up 30 per cent over the next three years.

Bronwyn Herbert reports.

BRONWYN HERBERT: Oil is deeply embedded in the economy. The cost reflected not only at the petrol bowser, but in food and clothing too.

Only five years ago the International Energy Agency confidently stated that oil production was set to rise to 120 million barrels a day by 2030.

But its chief economist Fatih Birol has vastly revised those figures.

FATIH BIROL: The existing fields are declining so sharply that in order to stay where we are in terms of production levels in the next 25 years, we have to find and develop four new Saudi Arabias. It is a huge, huge challenge that we continue to underline.

BRONWYN HERBERT: The IEA is an independent, multi-government agency formed out of the wake of the 1973 oil crisis.

It forecasts oil production, monitors the international oil market and other energy sectors.

Dr Birol says peak crude oil production is already behind us.

FATIH BIROL: We think that the crude oil production has already peaked in 2006 but we expect oil to come from the natural gas liquids - type of liquid when we have through the production of gas - and also a bit from the oil sense. One of the major conclusions we have from our recent work in energy outlook is that the age of cheap oil is over.

BRONWYN HERBERT: In 2008 at the height of the global financial crisis, oil spiked to $148 a barrel.

Dr Birol says the impact of both a financial crisis in Europe and global instability in oil rich regions means crude oil is only going to get more expensive.

FATIH BIROL: The amount of increase in the oil input bill in Europe is equal to the government budget deficit of Greece plus Portugal put together. It is only the increase when we have $90. If it increases further, which we believe will increase at last 20/30 per cent higher than now in the next few years to come and this would mean additional pressure on the financing of many governments who are the oil importers.

BRONWYN HERBERT: He says the oil reserves might be there but the access isn't.

FATIH BIROL: The producers may intentionally or unintentionally, may not bring the oil under the reserves to the markets plus for some producers, it is better that oil doesn't come to market so they would like to see perhaps higher prices as a result of tightness in the markets.

BRONWYN HERBERT: The International Energy Agency says government's around the world need to rethink their reliance on oil.

PETER CAVE: Bronwyn Herbert reporting and you can hear more of that story in a special report on the ABC's Catalyst program on ABC-1 tonight.
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http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2011/s3202056.htm

You can watch and read the transcript of the longer Catalyst story at;

http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/3201781.htm
 

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Peak Oil as a theory aint dead - its basic physics but I dont know if the world thinks its an issue at the moment post GFC prices which initially reduced due to the world wide recession, China's demand slowing, India not taking up as much as projected, and most importantly shale oil, and gas fracking providing alternatives for both transport needs and oil used for heating in the northern hemisphere and a lot of oil producing nations ie Saudi's, Russia etc needing to pump the stuff out for cash flow to meet their government budget expenditure needs and Iran about to come back on stream as sanctions lifted off them after agreeing to a no nuclear enrichment deal with USA. Plus the alternative energy prices especially electric vehicles - mainly hybrids at the moment have picked up some of the slack. At around $35-$40 USD/barrel an 11 year low and approaching $1/litre at the pump looks like now is the time to consume it.

Last Tuesday 22nd December I saw this story on ABC News finance section of the nightly news
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-22/aussie-dollar-trades-sharply-higher/7049386?section=business
Phil Lasker says - "A lot of the oil stockpile is simply floating around aimlessly in tankers waiting for higher prices, South East Asia has more oil stored in tankers than any other region - around 50 million barrels - but dont depend on China to rescue prices, demand is going in the wrong direction ...."

upload_2015-12-28_17-29-37.png

and then on Thursday ABC Radio's flagship current affairs program AM, had this story.

http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2015/s4378169.htm
KIM LANDERS: With the world awash with too much crude oil at the moment, the fear of an economic catastrophe when fossil fuels start running out is quietly fading. The prediction is known as "peak oil" what happens when crude oil extraction hits its maximum and supplies begin a steady and permanent decline. But now the "peak oil" argument is fast losing credibility, as global supplies outstrip demand and the US benchmark price heads toward $30 dollars a barrel. Here's our Business editor Peter Ryan.

BBC DOCUDRAMA: It is 2016 and the world is plunged into crisis. America is addicted to oil.

PETER RYAN: Fears of an economic catastrophe known as "peak oil" or what happens when oil production peaks and then starts running out inspired the BBC to produce this docudrama a decade ago.

BBC DOCUDRAMA: The demand for oil soaring and booming China and India, Saudi Arabia are certain to turn off the taps to the west. Sparking an oil shock. I think most people don't accept what's going to hit us, most people don't accept that this is a real possibility.

PETER RYAN: The peak oil argument is based on global demand vastly exceeding available supplies. But now there's a global glut, US shale producers are pumping like never before, with US sanctions lifted, Iran is about to rejoin the world oil market and the OPEC oil cartel is refusing to tighten supplies as they normally would hoping US producers will produce themselves out of business.

Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP capital investors, says supply and demand table has well and truly turned on the peak oil advocates.
SHANE OLIVER: They've been talking about a peak in the global production of oil for the last two decades now and it still hasn't happened and I think the reality is that they are going to remain wrong going forward. Therefore the catastrophe that was predicted by the peak oil advocates where oil production would peak and there would be huge economic impact globally that just won't happen.

PETER RYAN: Shane Oliver says rather than a peak oil shock, the world will instead move away from fossil fuels as renewable technologies get closer to reality.

SHANE OLIVER: Only a decade ago I was being told that I've got to get rid of my car and replace it with a horse and buggy. That prospect appears as a less likely. Maybe that was a bit of a joke but I think the reality is the days of the internal combustion engine using oil are numbered and I won't be getting rid of the car and getting a horse and buggy, I'll perhaps be getting a car with an electric engine in there. So I think the world is gradually starting to move away from oil and therefore the catastrophe that was predicted by the peak oil advocates that just won't happen.

PETER RYAN: So in other words what we've been hearing about a potential global economic shock when peak oil is reached is distant if anything?

SHANE OLIVER: They had a view that oil production would suddenly peak and that would create economic catastrophe on a scale or if not worse than what we saw back in the 1970's when OPEC restricted supply. I think what's going to happen here is that oil production globally will at some point peak but it's going to be because the world has moved away from oil towards the use of other things. The electrification of automobiles and greater efficiency in the use of oil will drive a decline in the demand through time anyway. So all production will peak not because it physically peaked but because the demand has peaked.

PETER RYAN: With West Texas Intermediate crude set to dip below US$30 next year on global oversupply, the peak oil argument is set weaken even more. All eyes now will be on OPEC's resolve in maintaining supply and the global impact as China’s demand weakens as its economy continues to slow.
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2015/s4378169.htm

But this article yesterday in Forbes Magazine yesterday suggests that maybe we have hit Peak Oil - but the peak of Conventional Oil. It looks at it from an USA production point of view but its still relevant for the whole world

http://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurb...-oil-export-ban-what-me-worry-about-peak-oil/
The Crude Oil Export Ban--What, Me Worry About Peak Oil?
Dec 27, 2015 CONTRIBUTOR Art Berman, I write about plays and trends in the oil and gas business.

Congress ended the U.S. crude oil export ban last week. There is apparently no longer a strategic reason to conserve oil because shale production has made American great again. At least, that’s narrative that reality-averse politicians and their bases prefer.

The 1975 Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) that banned crude oil export was the closest thing to an energy policy that the United States has ever had. The law was passed after the price of oil increased in one month (January 1974) from $21 to $51 per barrel (2015 dollars) because of the Arab Oil Embargo.

The EPCA not only banned the export of crude oil but also established the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Both measures were intended to keep more oil at home in order to make the U.S. less dependent on imported oil. A 55 mile-per-hour national speed limit was established to force conservation, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) was founded to better monitor and predict global oil supply and demand trends.

Above all, the export ban acknowledged that declining domestic supply and increased imports had made the country vulnerable to economic disruption. Its repeal last week suggests that there is no longer any risk associated with dependence on foreign oil.

What, Me Worry?

The tight oil [ie shale oil] revolution has returned U.S. crude oil production almost to its 1970 peak of 10 million barrels per day (mmbpd) and imports have been falling for the last decade (Figure 1).
Chart1_US-Crude-Prod-Imp-Cons-1024x700.jpg

Figure 1. U.S. crude oil production, net imports and consumption. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

But today, the U.S. imports twice as much oil (97%) as in 1974! In 2015, the U.S. imported 6.8 mmbpd of crude oil (net) compared to only 3.5 mmbpd at the time of the Arab Oil Embargo (Table 1). Production of crude oil is higher today by 7% but consumption has grown to more than 16 mmbpd, an increase of 32%. At the time of the Arab Oil Embaro, consumption was only 12 mmbpd.
1974-2015-Comparison-Table-1024x286.jpg

Table 1. Comparison of U.S. crude oil imports, production and consumption for 1974 (Arab Oil Embargo) and 2015 (Today). Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

So, consumption has increased by one-third and imports have doubled but we no longer need to think strategically about oil supply because production is a little higher? We are far more economically vulnerable and dependent on foreign oil today than we were when crude oil export was banned 40 years ago.

Peak Oil

While the world was focused on an over-supply of oil and falling prices over the last 18 months, world liquids production peaked in August 2015 at almost 97 mmbpd (Figure 2). Average daily production of 95.5 mmbpd for 2015 exceeds EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2015 forecast (April 2015) by 2.6 mmbpd! Conventional oil production peaked in February 2011 at 85.3 mmbpd (Figure 2) and non-OPEC conventional production peaked in November 2010 at 49.8 mmbpd (Figure 3).
Chart_World-Con-Uncon-1024x697.jpg


Figure 2. World conventional and unconventional liquids production. Source: EIA, Drilling Info, Statistics Canada

Chart_Con-OPEC-Non-OPEC-Conv-1024x700.jpg


Figure 3. World conventional and unconventional liquids production showing OPEC and non-OPEC conventional production.
Source: EIA, Drilling Info, Statistics Canada and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

It’s not important whether this is the final, maximum world production peak or not. It is a signal about a trend that needs to be acknowledged and incorporated into our evolving paradigm about oil supply.

Peak oil production was accelerated by a confluence of factors. Zero interest rates in the U.S. and Middle East supply interruptions before 2014 caused high oil prices. Easy money caused over-investment in the oil business. Over-production and weakened demand resulted in the collapse in world oil prices. OPEC’s reaction and decision to produce at maximum rates have created the “perfect storm” for peak oil production several years before it would have occurred otherwise.

All oil producers are losing money at current prices but companies and countries are producing at high rates. Indebted conventional and unconventional players need cash flow to service debt so they are producing at high rates. OPEC is producing at high rates to maintain or gain market share. Everyone is acting rationally from their own perspective but from a high level, it looks like they have all lost their minds.

Peak oil is not about running out of oil. It is about what happens when the supply of conventional oil begins to decline. Once this happens, higher-cost, lower-quality sources of oil become increasingly necessary to meet global demand.

Those secondary sources of oil include unconventional (oil sand and tight oil) and deep-water production. The contribution of unconventional and deep-water production has grown from about 15% in 2000 to approximately one-third of total supply today, and it will probably represent more than 40% by 2030.

Despite a popular belief that tight oil is price-competitive with conventional oil production, it is not (Figure 4).
Oil-Prod-Capex-Tight-Oil-DW-OPEC-Conv-from-SLB-Howard-Weil-032615-1024x770.jpg
Figure 4. Slide from Schlumberger CEO Paal Kibsgaard’s presentation at the Scotia Howard Weil 2015 Energy Conference.

Figure 4 is from Schlumberger, a company that knows the costs of its global customers. It shows that tight oil is the most expensive source of oil, followed by deep-water and other offshore oil. Conventional oil from onshore and OPEC middle eastern sources is the lowest cost oil.

Schlumberger did not include oil sands in its chart because it is difficult to compare the costs of a manufacturing operation to the cost of drilling individual wells. Existing mined and SAGD oil sands projects, however, break-even at approximately $50 per barrel although new SAGD projects require about $80 per barrel.

Figure 4 reflects costs in 2014. Although cost and efficiency improvements since 2014 probably apply equally to all plays, Table 2 shows late 2015 costs and reserves for key tight oil operators.

The principal tight oil plays–Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian basin–break even at $65 to $70 per barrel oil price today.
EAGLE-FORD-BAKKEN-PERMIAN-SUMMARY-EUR-BE-PRICE-TABLE-25-DEC-2015-1024x194.jpg

Table 2. Key operator weighted-average estimated ultimate recoveries (EUR) in barrels of oil equivalent and break-even oil prices. Drilling and completion (D&C) costs used in the economic calculations are shown. Economics also include an 8% discount. Details may be found at the following links: Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian. Source: Drilling Info & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Although EUR is higher and break-even prices are lower for certain operators and core areas of the plays, Table 2 reflects representative average values for operators with the highest rates and cumulative production. If the price of oil increases, service costs will also increase and the production cost will be higher. Efficiency gains are largely behind us as new well production per rig has flattened in the last quarter of 2015 (Figure 5) so it is unreasonable to expect costs to decrease much further.
DPR-Dec-2015-1024x697.jpg

Figure 5. Tight oil new well production per rig. Source: EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

The economics of tight oil plays require spot oil prices that are double and wellhead prices that are triple current face values. Excluding new SAGD projects, tight oil is the world’s most-expensive and, therefore, marginal barrel of oil and its cost of production today is more than $70.

Perception is Everything

Congress’ decision to lift the 40-year U.S. ban on crude oil exports reflects the same misinformed and distorted thinking that declares that the world’s highest cost producer–tight oil–can somehow also be the world’s swing producer.

The 1975 export ban was enacted because of the disastrous economic consequences of becoming dependent on imports following the peaking of U.S. oil production in 1970. Now that oil production is again close to peak levels, we have apparently forgotten that imports were the problem then and that we import twice as much today as in 1975.

The same thinking concludes that because oil markets are over-supplied by about 1.5 mmbpd today, prices will remain low for years if not decades. Although there is certainly a rationale for low prices based on fundamentals of supply and demand in the near term, the longer view is shaped largely by perception.

Oil prices (Brent) rallied, after all, to $65 per barrel in May when the market was more over-supplied (2.25 mmbpd) than it is today. That was based on perception that falling rig counts in the United States and withdrawals from oil-storage inventories would bring less supply. Neither perception was correct in the short term but it didn’t matter. Prices rose. There were, of course, other factors including concerns about the growth of the Chinese economy, the Greek debt crisis, and renewed Iranian exports.

Despite the recent trend toward price capitulation since late November, there is a certain potential energy in the market to find excuses to raise prices or to at least establish a bottom. For example, this week, U.S. crude oil stocks declined by 5 mm barrels and WTI futures increased $3.36 per barrel. We are in the winter de-stocking period so a withdrawal from inventory is normal but the previous week saw an addition to stocks that made this withdrawal seem somehow more important. A price increase of that magnitude makes no sense especially since U.S. stocks are more than 125 mm barrels above the 5-year average. That is the power of perception.

Energy and oil in particular underlie everything in our global economic lives. Oil prices reflect our collective emotional response to the circumstances of the world. Fundamentals are the vital signs of oil price’s body but perception is the key to its psyche.

The more-than $3 per barrel increase in WTI prices last week is an example of a very short-term reaction to some event or circumstance. Oil prices also reflect longer-term longer term price responses that involve considerable lags. For instance, a global production surplus appeared in January 2014 and continued for 6 months before prices responded downward.

Climate change and peak oil are long-term perspectives that many prefer not to think about or to reject as frauds. That is because they force us to consider that there may be real limits to growth. That is anathema to the economic and cultural paradigm that much of the world embraces. They suggest that energy will cost more and that we may have to live with less in the future than we have in the past. That means extreme changes in both our behavior and our expectations.

The prevailing perspective–lower for longer–is that oil prices will remain low for many years.

This is reasonable based on vital signs. The global over-supply of oil persists after a year-and-a-half of lower prices. Iran and Libya could potentially add another 1-2 mmbpd to the existing over-supply. U.S. production has not declined as much as most experts anticipated, and there is considerable if unknown spare capacity in drilled, uncompleted wells. China’s economic growth has slowed and the global economy is weak. Demand for oil will continue to grow but at a slower rate than in 2015.

What Lies Ahead in 2016

In another week, the world will go back to work after the holidays. The bleeding in the oil patch will get worse and prices will plunge again. Year-end results for oil and gas companies will be the worst so far. The Federal Reserve Bank and Standard & Poor’s have issued warnings about bad debt in the U.S. oil and gas business. The tight oil companies have put the best face they can on a desperate situation.

But investors and their bankers should be out of patience. They should be tired of phony economics and tall tales about giant new reserves when the companies they invested in are losing billions of dollars every quarter.

The lower-for-longer perception will begin to change in 2016 barring a global economic collapse. It is, after all, founded on the simultaneous occurrence of every possible negative outcome. The long-awaited response in the economy to lower oil prices will begin to emerge. Demand for oil will increase. Concern about lower growth in China is largely accepted already. U.S. production will continue to fall 100,000 barrels per day every month as predicted, just later than expected. Drilled uncompleted wells will not deliver as much new oil as many now fear.

None of this will happen overnight. Market balance will likely return more slowly than it unravelled. The oil bubble took 5 years to inflate but the world is impatient and expects a quick return to normal. All of the signs are right–lower rig counts, distress for overly leveraged companies, lower budgets for crucial exploration and development projects–but it all takes time.

Energy is the economy. Lower oil and gas prices will be a huge benefit to the global economy but that takes time also. And the longer prices are low the better, although it doesn’t feel that way in the oil business right now.

Tight oil has bought the U.S. another decade or so of additional oil supply but, as peak oil predicted, at a cost. The technology behind tight oil has also made it the world’s most expensive barrel. As all of this sinks in, perception will start to change. Analysts and investors will begin to see that data points more toward long-term scarcity than toward long-term abundance of oil supply.

The U.S. is far more economically vulnerable and dependent on foreign oil today than when crude oil export was banned 40 years ago. The world has finite oil resources and the production party of the last 5 years has accelerated the timing of peak global production. A shooting war in the world would bring all of this into instantaneous focus if the data presented here has not.

It is a curious paradox that peak oil should manifest in the midst of over-supply and low oil prices. That is certainly not how I thought things would happen. Perceptions will change and oil-market balance will be restored in ways that few of us thought likely. Peak oil will be part of that change.

Art Berman - Petroleum Geologist and Professional Speaker
http://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurb...-oil-export-ban-what-me-worry-about-peak-oil/
 
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RussellEbertHandball said:
How is Peak oil bad? Well if we get a 400% price increase in 6 months like we did in Oct 73 to March 1974 or a 200% increase like in 1979 and we get inflation over 10%, interest rates over 10%, Unemployment over 10% and growth down to bugger all or negative then we are going to have a lot of pissed off people who might actually be pissed off about more than not being able to buy the latest plasma, take a holiday o's every year and not using the credit card. Then if the poor bastards who live on bugger all per day see what little food they can buy because of a doubling and tripling in prices because petrol goes up and is compounded because farmers are switching from growing food to growing more profitable bio fuel crops you might have one angry planet. A bit extreme, I know, but when people get to the point that they can't afford to buy food, well then interesting things start to happen.
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Hi there!!!

Oil Price Forecast: WTI Could Fall to $20:

Global oil prices continue to defy all rationalization, as predictions fall flat on their face and both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent are displaying extreme volatility. Crude oil is now at its lowest price level in 11 years, but oil is likely to go lower before things get better.
So many questions have arisen that it has become difficult to address them with any real confidence. Has the oil price found its bottom and is $35.00 per barrel representing the new normal for WTI? It seems that everyone has their own pet theory about where exactly oil prices are heading these days, as bears and bulls alike are keeping their attention firmly zeroed in on news from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the data coming out of organizations such as the Energy Information Agency and International Energy Agency . OPEC appears to be in the middle of an identity crisis, as the oil cartel can’t seem to figure out, as a real unit, if it’s supposed to act as the global swing producer or sit meekly by and hope its members can survive the ongoing oil price crash.


http://www.profitconfidential.com/tag/opec-oil-prices/
 
philreich said:
In these crazy times, oil in America has hit MINUS $37.00 a barrel. Does that mean service stations will be paying us to buy fuel? :)
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Do you want the short answer ?

Amazing situation oil producers are paying buyers to take surplus oil off their hands. Never been seen before.

I guess the cartels in Australia will argue that they have to charge us $1.19 per litre in order to keep the service stations open. People have not been traveling as much so I imagine demand for petrol has dropped off.

In any case we should both be grateful as getting ripped off at the bowser is one of the few pieces of normality we have left.;)
 
raptalia said:
Do you want the short answer ?

Amazing situation oil producers are paying buyers to take surplus oil off their hands. Never been seen before.

I guess the cartels in Australia will argue that they have to charge us $1.19 per litre in order to keep the service stations open. People have not been traveling as much so I imagine demand for petrol has dropped off.

In any case we should both be grateful as getting ripped off at the bowser is one of the few pieces of normality we have left.;)
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Yep. Comforting to know it still costs 30c a litre to transport petrol 300km down the highway from Sydney. If any of you guys need work, I'd suggest hiring a petrol tanker...

EDIT: on the ABC News last night Alan Kohler said the last time crude prices were this low, we were paying 80c a litre retail. I presume now you're all getting that?
 
Capital Power said:
Yep. Comforting to know it still costs 30c a litre to transport petrol 300km down the highway from Sydney. If any of you guys need work, I'd suggest hiring a petrol tanker...
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As soon as typed that post I thought. We will be hearing from Capital Power on this one. :)
 
raptalia said:
Do you want the short answer ?

Amazing situation oil producers are paying buyers to take surplus oil off their hands. Never been seen before.

I guess the cartels in Australia will argue that they have to charge us $1.19 per litre in order to keep the service stations open. People have not been traveling as much so I imagine demand for petrol has dropped off.

In any case we should both be grateful as getting ripped off at the bowser is one of the few pieces of normality we have left.;)
Click to expand...

I know of one fuel chain who were down 30mil litres a week and that’s about 2 weeks ago so it must be worse for them now.
 
philreich said:
In these crazy times, oil in America has hit MINUS $37.00 a barrel. Does that mean service stations will be paying us to buy fuel? :)
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This isn't what the boffins behind Peak Oil promised us.
 
raptalia said:
Do you want the short answer ?

Amazing situation oil producers are paying buyers to take surplus oil off their hands. Never been seen before.

I guess the cartels in Australia will argue that they have to charge us $1.19 per litre in order to keep the service stations open. People have not been traveling as much so I imagine demand for petrol has dropped off.

In any case we should both be grateful as getting ripped off at the bowser is one of the few pieces of normality we have left.;)
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what does this mean for oil dependent economies like Russia, the US, Singapore, Saudi etc?

the positive is, it is a taste of the future post oil and the nations have no choice but to reform
 
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