People act like every kid that goes Top 10 in the draft will be a superstar.

Gunnar Longshanks

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Thread starter #1
I think that, when discussing potential trades, supporters really exaggerate the value of first-round picks.

For a top 5 pick, fair enough. But picks 7-19 could be anything. You could be drafting the next Danny Roach.

Take a look back through recent drafts. There are some pretty ordinary names in the top 10, but people act like trading away an early pick is akin to overlooking the next Pavlich/Judd. It doesn't work like that.

Take a look at the guys that went first round in 2001, which is supposedly the strongest draft in recent times.

1. Luke Hodge - Hawthorn
2. Luke Ball - St Kilda
3. Chris Judd - WC Eagles
4. Graham Polak Fremantle
5. Xavier Clarke - St Kilda
6. Ashley Sampi - WC Eagles
7. David Hale - Kangaroos
8. James Bartel - Geelong
9. Luke Molan - Melbourne
10. Sam Power - W Bulldogs
11. Richard Cole - Collingwood
12. Brent Reilly - Adelaide
13. Nick Dal Santo - St Kilda
14. Ashley Watson - Kangaroos
15. Barry Brooks - Port Adelaide
16. Rick Ladson - Hawthorn
17. James Kelly - Geelong
18. Shane Harvey - Essendon
19. Jason Gram - Brisbane

Sure, there is the cream of the crop in the first 3 picks, but it's pretty lean after that. Bartel, Dal Santo and Kelly will be long-term players, but how many top-liners are there really in that group of 19? Maybe 9 at most?

I bet Melbourne are happy they didn't part with their #9 pick!

In 2001, Matt Maguire went at #21, Steve Johnson at #24, Sam Mitchell at #36, Ash Hansen at #38, Jarrad Waite at #46 and Brad Miller at #55. I'd prefer all of those guys to more than half of the first round selections.

I reckon a 19-21 y.o. kid who is developed and has shown himself to be AFL-ready is worth more than a low first-rounder.

Pick 8 is more valuable than pick 16. But in reality, it's like having two lottery tickets instead of one. You're still not guaranteed of winning anything.
 

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mojo31

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#5
Gunnar Longshanks said:
I think that, when discussing potential trades, supporters really exaggerate the value of first-round picks.

For a top 5 pick, fair enough. But picks 7-19 could be anything. You could be drafting the next Danny Roach.

Take a look back through recent drafts. There are some pretty ordinary names in the top 10, but people act like trading away an early pick is akin to overlooking the next Pavlich/Judd. It doesn't work like that.

You're just as likely to draft a 200-game player in the 2nd or 3rd round as you are in the first round.

I agree and went through 1999 to 2003 and out of 50 top 10 picks 23 had not made it through form, injuries or perhaps needed more time. I realise the draft is getting a more exact science but still about a 50% strike rate is pretty poor. I think people see Cooney, Judd, Griffen etc and feel everyone is going to be like that straight away.
 

Vinnie Vegas

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#7
Gunnar Longshanks said:
Pick 8 is more valuable than pick 16. But in reality, it's like having two lottery tickets instead of one. You're still not guaranteed of winning sh*t.
Don't worry, nobody on these boards has anything to do with what West Coast is going to get for Daniel McConnell.

However, I don't think you have to be a mathematical genius to understand that two lottery tickets is better than one.
 

Pafloyul

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#8
It all sounds like people know they have very little brains and are too gutless to use what they have got. Footballers have got to come from somewhere. There is only so much 'shuffling' that can be done before you realize that it might be all futile. A brave recruiter is a good recruiter and if you lump everything in the 'too hard' basket, then you are in the wrong job.
 
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