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#1
I think that, when discussing potential trades, supporters really exaggerate the value of first-round picks.
For a top 5 pick, fair enough. But picks 7-19 could be anything. You could be drafting the next Danny Roach.
Take a look back through recent drafts. There are some pretty ordinary names in the top 10, but people act like trading away an early pick is akin to overlooking the next Pavlich/Judd. It doesn't work like that.
Take a look at the guys that went first round in 2001, which is supposedly the strongest draft in recent times.
1. Luke Hodge - Hawthorn
2. Luke Ball - St Kilda
3. Chris Judd - WC Eagles
4. Graham Polak Fremantle
5. Xavier Clarke - St Kilda
6. Ashley Sampi - WC Eagles
7. David Hale - Kangaroos
8. James Bartel - Geelong
9. Luke Molan - Melbourne
10. Sam Power - W Bulldogs
11. Richard Cole - Collingwood
12. Brent Reilly - Adelaide
13. Nick Dal Santo - St Kilda
14. Ashley Watson - Kangaroos
15. Barry Brooks - Port Adelaide
16. Rick Ladson - Hawthorn
17. James Kelly - Geelong
18. Shane Harvey - Essendon
19. Jason Gram - Brisbane
Sure, there is the cream of the crop in the first 3 picks, but it's pretty lean after that. Bartel, Dal Santo and Kelly will be long-term players, but how many top-liners are there really in that group of 19? Maybe 9 at most?
I bet Melbourne are happy they didn't part with their #9 pick!
In 2001, Matt Maguire went at #21, Steve Johnson at #24, Sam Mitchell at #36, Ash Hansen at #38, Jarrad Waite at #46 and Brad Miller at #55. I'd prefer all of those guys to more than half of the first round selections.
I reckon a 19-21 y.o. kid who is developed and has shown himself to be AFL-ready is worth more than a low first-rounder.
Pick 8 is more valuable than pick 16. But in reality, it's like having two lottery tickets instead of one. You're still not guaranteed of winning anything.
For a top 5 pick, fair enough. But picks 7-19 could be anything. You could be drafting the next Danny Roach.
Take a look back through recent drafts. There are some pretty ordinary names in the top 10, but people act like trading away an early pick is akin to overlooking the next Pavlich/Judd. It doesn't work like that.
Take a look at the guys that went first round in 2001, which is supposedly the strongest draft in recent times.
1. Luke Hodge - Hawthorn
2. Luke Ball - St Kilda
3. Chris Judd - WC Eagles
4. Graham Polak Fremantle
5. Xavier Clarke - St Kilda
6. Ashley Sampi - WC Eagles
7. David Hale - Kangaroos
8. James Bartel - Geelong
9. Luke Molan - Melbourne
10. Sam Power - W Bulldogs
11. Richard Cole - Collingwood
12. Brent Reilly - Adelaide
13. Nick Dal Santo - St Kilda
14. Ashley Watson - Kangaroos
15. Barry Brooks - Port Adelaide
16. Rick Ladson - Hawthorn
17. James Kelly - Geelong
18. Shane Harvey - Essendon
19. Jason Gram - Brisbane
Sure, there is the cream of the crop in the first 3 picks, but it's pretty lean after that. Bartel, Dal Santo and Kelly will be long-term players, but how many top-liners are there really in that group of 19? Maybe 9 at most?
I bet Melbourne are happy they didn't part with their #9 pick!
In 2001, Matt Maguire went at #21, Steve Johnson at #24, Sam Mitchell at #36, Ash Hansen at #38, Jarrad Waite at #46 and Brad Miller at #55. I'd prefer all of those guys to more than half of the first round selections.
I reckon a 19-21 y.o. kid who is developed and has shown himself to be AFL-ready is worth more than a low first-rounder.
Pick 8 is more valuable than pick 16. But in reality, it's like having two lottery tickets instead of one. You're still not guaranteed of winning anything.

