People act like every kid that goes Top 10 in the draft will be a superstar.

Gunnar Longshanks

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Thread starter #1
I think that, when discussing potential trades, supporters really exaggerate the value of first-round picks.

For a top 5 pick, fair enough. But picks 7-19 could be anything. You could be drafting the next Danny Roach.

Take a look back through recent drafts. There are some pretty ordinary names in the top 10, but people act like trading away an early pick is akin to overlooking the next Pavlich/Judd. It doesn't work like that.

Take a look at the guys that went first round in 2001, which is supposedly the strongest draft in recent times.

1. Luke Hodge - Hawthorn
2. Luke Ball - St Kilda
3. Chris Judd - WC Eagles
4. Graham Polak Fremantle
5. Xavier Clarke - St Kilda
6. Ashley Sampi - WC Eagles
7. David Hale - Kangaroos
8. James Bartel - Geelong
9. Luke Molan - Melbourne
10. Sam Power - W Bulldogs
11. Richard Cole - Collingwood
12. Brent Reilly - Adelaide
13. Nick Dal Santo - St Kilda
14. Ashley Watson - Kangaroos
15. Barry Brooks - Port Adelaide
16. Rick Ladson - Hawthorn
17. James Kelly - Geelong
18. Shane Harvey - Essendon
19. Jason Gram - Brisbane

Sure, there is the cream of the crop in the first 3 picks, but it's pretty lean after that. Bartel, Dal Santo and Kelly will be long-term players, but how many top-liners are there really in that group of 19? Maybe 9 at most?

I bet Melbourne are happy they didn't part with their #9 pick!

In 2001, Matt Maguire went at #21, Steve Johnson at #24, Sam Mitchell at #36, Ash Hansen at #38, Jarrad Waite at #46 and Brad Miller at #55. I'd prefer all of those guys to more than half of the first round selections.

I reckon a 19-21 y.o. kid who is developed and has shown himself to be AFL-ready is worth more than a low first-rounder.

Pick 8 is more valuable than pick 16. But in reality, it's like having two lottery tickets instead of one. You're still not guaranteed of winning anything.
 

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Nightwolf

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#3
Gunnar Longshanks said:
I think that, when discussing potential trades, supporters really exaggerate the value of first-round picks.

For a top 5 pick, fair enough. But picks 7-19 could be anything. You could be drafting the next Danny Roach.

Take a look back through recent drafts. There are some pretty ordinary names in the top 10, but people act like trading away an early pick is akin to overlooking the next Pavlich/Judd. It doesn't work like that.

Take a look at the guys that went first round in 2001, which is supposedly the strongest draft in recent times.

1. Luke Hodge - Hawthorn
2. Luke Ball - St Kilda
3. Chris Judd - WC Eagles
4. Graham Polak Fremantle
5. Xavier Clarke - St Kilda
6. Ashley Sampi - WC Eagles
7. David Hale - Kangaroos
8. James Bartel - Geelong
9. Luke Molan - Melbourne
10. Sam Power - W Bulldogs
11. Richard Cole - Collingwood
12. Brent Reilly - Adelaide
13. Nick Dal Santo - St Kilda
14. Ashley Watson - Kangaroos
15. Barry Brooks - Port Adelaide
16. Rick Ladson - Hawthorn
17. James Kelly - Geelong
18. Shane Harvey - Essendon
19. Jason Gram - Brisbane
There are 3 top 10 duds and one utter hack (Sampi)....

Hale, i believe, goes alright....
 

Gunnar Longshanks

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Thread starter #4
Murray said:
Its a bit like when Wet Toast supporters say everyone playing for them is a champion
Yeah, we all believe that every WC player is a superstar.

You've got us there.

If only we had a champion like Leon Davis.

Dullard.
 

worthy

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#6
Gunnar Longshanks said:
I think that, when discussing potential trades, supporters really exaggerate the value of first-round picks.

For a top 5 pick, fair enough. But picks 7-19 could be anything. You could be drafting the next Danny Roach.

Take a look back through recent drafts. There are some pretty ordinary names in the top 10, but people act like trading away an early pick is akin to overlooking the next Pavlich/Judd. It doesn't work like that.

Take a look at the guys that went first round in 2001, which is supposedly the strongest draft in recent times.

1. Luke Hodge - Hawthorn
2. Luke Ball - St Kilda
3. Chris Judd - WC Eagles
4. Graham Polak Fremantle
5. Xavier Clarke - St Kilda
6. Ashley Sampi - WC Eagles
7. David Hale - Kangaroos
8. James Bartel - Geelong
9. Luke Molan - Melbourne
10. Sam Power - W Bulldogs
11. Richard Cole - Collingwood
12. Brent Reilly - Adelaide
13. Nick Dal Santo - St Kilda
14. Ashley Watson - Kangaroos
15. Barry Brooks - Port Adelaide
16. Rick Ladson - Hawthorn
17. James Kelly - Geelong
18. Shane Harvey - Essendon
19. Jason Gram - Brisbane

Sure, there is the cream of the crop in the first 3 picks, but it's pretty lean after that. Bartel, Dal Santo and Kelly will be long-term players, but how many top-liners are there really in that group of 19? Maybe 9 at most?

I bet Melbourne are happy they didn't part with their #9 pick!

In 2001, Matt Maguire went at #21, Steve Johnson at #24, Sam Mitchell at #36, Ash Hansen at #38, Jarrad Waite at #46 and Brad Miller at #55. I'd prefer all of those guys to more than half of the first round selections.

I reckon a 19-21 y.o. kid who is developed and has shown himself to be AFL-ready is worth more than a low first-rounder.

Pick 8 is more valuable than pick 16. But in reality, it's like having two lottery tickets instead of one. You're still not guaranteed of winning anything.
Why then do you keep floating the idea of WC "upgrading" their pick in a deal with DMac?
 

Pafloyul

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#7
Oh great, does this mean I'll have to post everything I write in this thread twice? Well here goes -

It all sounds like people know they have very little brains and are too gutless to use what they have got. Footballers have got to come from somewhere. There is only so much 'shuffling' that can be done before you realize that it might be all futile. A brave recruiter is a good recruiter and if you lump everything in the 'too hard' basket, then you are in the wrong job.



P.S It helps when you can paste. ;) :rolleyes:
 

Gunnar Longshanks

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Thread starter #8
worthy said:
Why then do you keep floating the idea of WC "upgrading" their pick in a deal with DMac?
Because, all else being equal, I'd rather have pick 8 than pick 18.

Of course, if a team offered a straight swap for a decent player, I'd probably prefer that to an upgrade. But WC have some pretty specific needs, and that swap would have to service those needs.
 

mojo31

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#10
footyman said:
Post the Top 10 from 2002 and 2003, there are a lot who have not done anything in that list.

2002 AFL National Draft

Round 1
1. St Kilda - Brendon Goddard (Gippsland Power)
2. Kangaroos - Daniel Wells (Peel Thunder)
3. Brisbane - Jared Brennan (Southern Districts)
4. Western Bulldogs - Timothy Walsh (Northern Knights)
5. Sydney - Jarrad McVeigh (NSW/ACT Rams)
6. Port Adelaide - Steven Salopek (Dandenong Stingrays)
7. Geelong - Andrew Mackie (Glenelg)
8. Hawthorn - Luke Brennan (North Ballarat Rebels)
9. Kangaroos - Hamish McIntosh (Murray Bushrangers)
10. Essendon - Jason Laycock (Tassie Mariners)



2003

1. Western Bulldogs - Adam Cooney (West Adelaide)
2. Carlton - Andrew Walker (Bendigo Pioneers)
3. Melbourne - Colin Sylvia (Bendigo Pioneers)
4. Western Bulldogs - Farren Ray (Peel Thunder)
5. Melbourne - Brock McLean (Calder Cannons)
6. Essendon - Kepler Bradley (West Perth)
7. Geelong - Kane Tenace (Murray Bushrangers)
8. St Kilda - Raphael Clarke (St Mary’s)
9. Kangaroos - David Trotter (Calder Cannons)
10. Fremantle - Ryley Dunn (Murray Bushrangers)
 

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footyman

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#12
mojo31 said:
2002 AFL National Draft

Round 1
1. St Kilda - Brendon Goddard (Gippsland Power)
2. Kangaroos - Daniel Wells (Peel Thunder)
3. Brisbane - Jared Brennan (Southern Districts)
4. Western Bulldogs - Timothy Walsh (Northern Knights)
5. Sydney - Jarrad McVeigh (NSW/ACT Rams)
6. Port Adelaide - Steven Salopek (Dandenong Stingrays)
7. Geelong - Andrew Mackie (Glenelg)
8. Hawthorn - Luke Brennan (North Ballarat Rebels)
9. Kangaroos - Hamish McIntosh (Murray Bushrangers)
10. Essendon - Jason Laycock (Tassie Mariners)
Not a great list I dont think.
 

oooze

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#13
Colin Sylvia will be a superstar though. hehe. I think he may succeed cooney too.lol. Am i biased? Yep!...but one thing that cooney lacks is a bit of mongrel that Colin Sylvia has.
 

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#14
looking at it, it's about a 50% chance of getting a good player in your best 22 every week, 25% fringe player you hope will come good, 25% hack who gets delisted/traded.
 

worthy

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#15
Gunnar Longshanks said:
Because, all else being equal, I'd rather have pick 8 than pick 18.

Of course, if a team offered a straight swap for a decent player, I'd probably prefer that to an upgrade. But WC have some pretty specific needs, and that swap would have to service those needs.
Serious Q, has DMac done anything to suggest he's not a Bo Nixon MKll, ie: Good size and athleticism but just can't cut it?
 

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#16
worthy said:
Serious Q, has DMac done anything to suggest he's not a Bo Nixon MKll, ie: Good size and athleticism but just can't cut it?
he's played 2 games and did fine, and he is a very good player for east perth. There's a raft of young blokes we gave 2-3 games to this year (morton, rosa, le cras, edwards, McConnell) and there was nothing to say that any of them wouldn't/couldn't cut it, so it's not like he was cut because they thought he was a dud. Anyhow, it's a little hard to gauge after 2 games wouldn't you agree?
You can guarantee if he stays with the eagles he'll get a lot more than 2 games next season (unless he gets injured obviously), put it that way.
 

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#18
With the info posted here about potential obvious duds in the top 10... what is the value of a top 10 pick this year considering the shallowness of this years draft? OK with th earlier picks you get first shot at everyone

I have a funny feeling clubs this year are gonna take kids who might not have even got screenings or were not superstars in there general age group just for the sake that they could potentially develop them into. DRAFT 2005, the draft for athletes, not footballers
 

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#21
Nightwolf_69 said:
LOL, i wouldnt offer a 25th round pick for that dud...

(im assuming DMac is McDougall)

No it is Daniel McConnell as in DMac not AMac. The only dud here is you.
 

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#23
Gunnar Longshanks said:
So what is pick 10 really worth?

Give me an example of a player who would be a fair swap for pick 10.

Moloney was swapped for pick 12 I think it was. He is worth a lot more than that.

pick 10

= Chad Fletcher , small midfielder who is 26.
= D Motlop
= Goddard


pick 5

= Luke Power
= Bartel

pick 15

= Fergus Watts
 

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Thread starter #24
mojo31 said:
Moloney was swapped for pick 12 I think it was. He is worth a lot more than that.

pick 10

= Chad Fletcher , small midfielder who is 26.
= D Motlop
= Goddard


pick 5

= Luke Power
= Bartel

pick 15

= Fergus Watts
Motlop? Not sure about that.
 

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#25
In all likelyhood, I think Power is worth more than pick 5 considering, half the picks in the top 5 will be half as good as him in the future. I dont remember one draft where every player in the top 5, let alone the top 10 has been an out and out star. Thus, considering this years draft isnt considered the strongest...
 
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