Performance by Top-4 teams since 1994

[Hobbes]

In response to a request, a statistical assessment of finals performance by teams that end the minor round in the top four.

I assess the outcomes as:

1-2: Premiership=1, Losing GF=0, Losing Prelim=-1, Out in straight sets -2.
3-4: Premiership=2, Losing GF=1, Losing Prelim=0, Out in straight sets -1.

The net score over the 31 seasons of 8-teams finals (from 1994) is 3, so the average is very close to zero.

This does not take into account teams in the 5-8 range, including one premier and at least one other grand finalist.

Adelaide: 6 appearances, total -1
Brisbane: 10 appearances, total -1
Carlton: 3 appearances, total -2
Collingwood: 10 appearances, total +4. Have never done worse than expectations, but have also never won a premiership from 3rd/4th.
Essendon: 4 appearances, 0.
Fremantle: 4 appearances, -1.
Geelong: 18 appearances, -2. Have never won a premiership from 3rd/4th.
GWS: 3 appearances, -1
Hawthorn: 8 appearances, +3
Melbourne: 5 appearances, -1
North Melbourne: 6 appearances, +2
Port Adelaide: 9 apperances. -6. Rarely even match expectations.
Richmond: 6 appearances, +5. Three premierships from third place.
St Kilda: 6 apperances, +1. Usually exactly conform to expectations, never worse.
Sydney: 12 appearances, +4. Helped by two premierships from third.
West Coast: 8 apperances, +1.
Western Bulldogs: 6 appearances, -2. Never better than expected.

The stars here:

Richmond: +5 (6)
Collingwood: +4 (10)
Sydney: +4 (12)
Hawthorn: +3 (8)

and the flops:

Port Adelaide: -6 (9)
Carlton: -2 (3)
Western Bulldogs: -2 (6)
Geelong: -2 (18)

 

[deck]

Aren't the Crows the only team to win it from 4th?

 

[Mr Meow]

In response to a request, a statistical assessment of finals performance by teams that end the minor round in the top four.

I assess the outcomes as:

1-2: Premiership=1, Losing GF=0, Losing Prelim=-1, Out in straight sets -2.
3-4: Premiership=2, Losing GF=1, Losing Prelim=0, Out in straight sets -1.

The net score over the 31 seasons of 8-teams finals (from 1994) is 3, so the average is very close to zero.

This does not take into account teams in the 5-8 range, including one premier and at least one other grand finalist.

Adelaide: 6 appearances, total -1
Brisbane: 10 appearances, total -1
Carlton: 3 appearances, total -2
Collingwood: 10 appearances, total +4. Have never done worse than expectations, but have also never won a premiership from 3rd/4th.
Essendon: 4 appearances, 0.
Fremantle: 4 appearances, -1.
Geelong: 18 appearances, -2. Have never won a premiership from 3rd/4th.
GWS: 3 appearances, -1
Hawthorn: 8 appearances, +3
Melbourne: 5 appearances, -1
North Melbourne: 6 appearances, +2
Port Adelaide: 9 apperances. -6. Rarely even match expectations.
Richmond: 6 appearances, +5. Three premierships from third place.
St Kilda: 6 apperances, +1. Usually exactly conform to expectations, never worse.
Sydney: 12 appearances, +4. Helped by two premierships from third.
West Coast: 8 apperances, +1.
Western Bulldogs: 6 appearances, -2. Never better than expected.

The stars here:

Richmond: +5 (6)
Collingwood: +4 (10)
Sydney: +4 (12)
Hawthorn: +3 (8)

and the flops:

Port Adelaide: -6 (9)
Carlton: -2 (3)
Western Bulldogs: -2 (6)
Geelong: -2 (18)

This is awesome work, cheers.

Geelong has lost a few prelims from top 2. The only thing I'd balance that out with, is that a few of these seasons have involved QF or PFs against MCG tenants. I don't really consider that underperformance, whereas I do for "home" finals like against Sydney 2016 PF or Brisbane 2024 PF.

You're right that when Geelong finish 3rd-4th we just meet finals expectations - we've never "snatched one".

The stars are expected besides Sydney. Despite those two flags from unfancied positions, getting belted in 3 of 4 consecutive grand finals (and losing the other) from top 2 (usually 1st) feels like it should be marked harsher.

Collingwood defy conventional wisdom a bit. Possibly just from losing a few at home they should have won based on H&A performance (2011 GF, 2018 GF, 2019 PF).

 

[NetworkNerd]

Carlton with 3 top 4 appearances didnt seem right... but forgot they didnt make top 4 in 1999