Performance of teams new to finals

[Hobbes]

Specifically, I'm looking at performance of teams in the finals that weren't in the finals the previous year. I'm starting my analysis from 1994, when the eight team final system was introduced. I don't think the change in finals structure later is a big deal, but it does make the finals more orderly.

I don't have a point to make - I'm just looking at facts, and before compiling the data I don't know what it will imply.

I will grade teams on finals performance based on HOA placing. Essentially, I'll give them a plus for every week by which they exceed expectations, and a minus for ever week by which they fall short. Under the current finals system, that would entail:

1st/2nd: Par=Losing GF.
3rd/4th: Par=Losing Prelim.
5th/6th: Par=Losing Semi.
7th/8th: Par=Losing Elim.

1/2 and 5/6 will meet these expectations less often and 7/8 will exceed them because there are no expectations.

There is a (slight) plus trend because I'm allowing another plus for winning the premiership. This would account for a total of +4 (four premiers didn't play finals the year before) but the overall total is +7 - teams which didn't play finals last year actually slightly overperform expectations.



Sorting by team:

Adelaide: 5 instances, total +1
Brisbane: 3 instances, total -1
Carlton: 4 instances, total +4
Collingwood: 5 instances, total +1
Essendon: 8 instances, total -1
Fremantle: 5 instances, total 0
Geelong: 6 instances, total 0
GWS: 3 instances, total +3
Hawthorn: 6 instances, total +1
Melbourne: 7 instances: total +4
North Melbourne: 5 instances, total 0
Port Adelaide: 7 instances, total -3
Richmond 5 instances, total +1
St Kilda: 5 instances, total -1
Sydney: 5 instances, total +1
West Coast: 3 instances, total 0
Western Bulldogs: 7 instances, total -1

Adelaide conforms to expectations least (they match only once, fall short twice and exceed twice). Carlton, GWS and Melbourne have good records, and Port have a fairly poor record. But the variation is not great, and teams notorious as finals hard nuts (like Geelong or Collingwood) are nothing special here.

Sorting by previous year's place on the premiership table.
(Note: I'm treating 1993 placings as two places below where they really are, so Geelong were 7th but they didn't play finals so I'm treating it as 9th).

9th: 15 instances, total +6.
10th: 17 instances, total -1
11th: 14 instances, total +1
12th: 13 instances, total +1
13th: 7 instances, total +2
14th: 12 instances, total -2
15th: 4 instances, total -2
16th: 5 instances, total +2
17th: 1 instance, total 0
18th: 1 instance, total 0

Not a lot of big conclusions to draw here, but teams which finished one place out of the finals last year do quite well. Being a long way out of the finals doesn't matter much.

Sorted by win/loss differential the previous year.

+6: 1 instance (when Essendon got caught), 0
+4: 1 instance (Geelong missed the finals in 1993 with 12-8), +1
+2: 7 instances, +1
+1: 3 instances, 0
0: 13 instances, +3
-1: 5 instances, +1
-2: 13 instances, -3
-3: 5 instances, +1
-4: 11 instances, +2
-6: 8 instances, +3 (two premiers - Adelaide 97 and Richmond 17 - were -6 the previous year)
-7: 3 instances, -2
-8: 5 instances, -2
-9: 1 instance, +1
-10: 4 instances, +3
-11: 2 instances, +1
-12: 4 instances, -3
-14: 1 instance, -1
-16: 2 instances, 0
-18: 1 instance, 0

Sorted by number of years since the team played finals. This was of particular interest, because some people say that statistically teams without finals experience don't win in finals. I think the results make it clear that isn't true.

2 years: 39 instances, +4
3 years: 18 instances, -3
4 years: 7 instances, +3
5 years: 5 instances, 0
6 years: 6 instances, +3
7 years: 1 instance, 0
8 years: 2 instances, +1
9 years: 2 instances, 0
10+ years: 5 instances, 0
First time in finals: 4 instances, -1

Sorting by ladder position when they make finals. This will be a little skewed - higher expectations on 1st/2nd and 5th/6th suggest the averages should be negative, whereas 7/8 will always exceed expectations on average because there aren't any.

1st: 6 instances, 0 (two won the premiership, two missed the GF)
2nd: 5 instances, -3 (2/5 teams made the grand final, neither won it).
3rd: 11 instances, +2
4th: 14 instances, +2
5th: 13 instances, -5. This position is cursed - two teams have made prelims, but seven have been eliminated immediately.
6th: 10 instances, -1. Less cursed than 5th, for no obvious reason.
7th: 16 instances, +9. Two teams have made prelims from here.
8th: 14 instances, +3. Only 3/14 have won a game, and none more than one.




The raw data is below.

(previous year's placing, previous season's W-L, year last played finals)

1994: (Finals expanded to 8 teams)

Geelong (7th, 12-8, 1992) 4th, 13-9, lost GF. Rating: +
Footscray (9th, 11-9, 1992) 5th, 13-9. Lost semi. Rating: =
Melbourne (10th, 10-10, 1991) 7th, 12-10. Lost prelim. Rating: ++
Collingwood (8th, 11-9, 1992) 8th, 12-10. Lost elim. Rating: =

1995:

Richmond (9th, 12-10, 1982) 3rd, 15-6-1, Lost prelim. Rating: =
Essendon (10th, 11-11, 1993) 4th, 14-6-2, Lost semi. Rating: -
Brisbane Bears (12th, 9-13, first) 8th, 10-12, Lost elim. Rating: =

1996:

Sydney (12th, 8-14, 1987) 1st, 16-5-1, Lost GF. Rating: =
Hawthorn (15th, 7-15, 1994) 8th, 11-10-1, Lost elim. Rating: =
1997:
St Kilda (10th, 10-12, 1992) 1st, 15-7, Lost GF. Rating: =
Western Bulldogs (15th, 5-16-1, 1995) 3rd, 14-8, Lost Prelim. Rating: =
Adelaide (12th, 8-14, 1993) 4th, 13-9, PREMIER. Rating: ++

1998:

Melbourne (16th, 4-18, 1994) 4th, 14-8, lost Prelim. Rating: =
Essendon (14th, 9-13, 1996) 8th, 12-10, lost Elim. Rating: =

1999:

Carlton (11th, 9-13, 1996) 6th, 12-10, lost GF. Rating: ++
Port Adelaide (10th, 9-12-1, first), 7th, 12-10, lost Elim. Rating: =

2000:

Melbourne (14th, 6-16, 1998) 3rd, 14-8, lost GF. Rating: +
Geelong (11th, 10-12, 1997) 5th, 12-9-1, lost Elim. Rating: -
Hawthorn (9th, 9-10-1, 1996) 8th, 12-10-0, lost Semi. Rating: +

2001

Port Adelaide (14th, 7-14-1, 1999) 3rd, 16-6, lost Semi. Rating: -
Richmond (9th, 11-11, 1995) 4th, 15-7, lost Prelim. Rating: =
Sydney (10th, 10-12, 1999) 7th, 12-10, lost Elim. Rating: =
Adelaide (11th, 9-13, 1998) 8th, 12-10, lost Elim. Rating: =

2002

Collingwood (9th, 11-11, 1994) 4th, 13-9, lost GF. Rating: +
Melbourne (11th, 10-12, 2000) 6th, 12-10, lost Semi. Rating: =
Kangaroos (13th, 9-13, 2000) 7th, 12-10, lost Elim. Rating: =
West Coast (14th, 5-17, 1999) 8th, 11-11, lost Elim. Rating: =

2003

Sydney (11th, 9-12-1, 2001) 4th, 14-8. lost Prelim. Rating: =
Fremantle (13th, 9-13, first) 5th, 14-8. lost Elim. Rating: -

2004

St Kilda (11th, 11-11, 1998) 3rd, 16-6, lost Prelim. Rating: =
Geelong (12th, 7-14-1, 2000) 4th, 15-7, lost Prelim. Rating: =
Melbourne (14th, 5-17, 2002) 5th, 14-8, lost Elim. Rating: -

2005

Adelaide (12th, 8-14, 2003) 1st, 17-5, lost Prelim. Rating: -
Kangaroos (10th, 10-12, 2002) 5th, 13-9, lost Elim. Rating: -

2006

Fremantle (10th, 11-11, 2003) 3rd, 15-7, lost Prelim. Rating: =
Collingwood (15th, 5-17, 2003) 5th, 14-8, lost Elim. Rating: -
Western Bulldogs (9th, 11-11, 2000) 8th, 13-9. Lost Semi. Rating: +

2007

Geelong (10th, 10-11-1, 2005) 1st, 18-4, PREMIER. Rating: +
Port Adelaide (12th, 8-14, 2005) 2nd, 15-7, lost GF. Rating: =
Kangaroos (14th, 7-15, 2005) 4th, 14-8, lost Prelim. Rating: =
Hawthorn (11th, 9-13, 2001) 5th, 13-9, lost Semi. Rating: =

2008

Western Bulldogs (13th, 9-12-1, 2006) 3rd, 15-6-1, lost Prelim. Rating: =
St Kilda (9th, 11-10-1, 2006) 4th, 13-9, lost Prelim. Rating: =

2009

Brisbane (10th, 10-12, 2004) 6th, 13-8-1, lost Semi. Rating: =
Carlton (11th, 10-12, 2001) 7th, 13-9, lost Elim. Rating: =
Essendon (12th, 8-14, 2004) 8th, 10-11-1, lost Elim. Rating: =

2010

Sydney (12th, 8-14, 2008) 5th, 13-9, lost Semi. Rating: =
Fremantle (14th, 6-16, 2006) 6th, 13-9, lost Semi. Rating: =
Hawthorn (9th, 9-13, 2008) 7th, 12-9-1, lost Elim. Rating: =

2011

West Coast (16th, 4-18, 2007) 4th, 17-5-0, lost Prelim. Rating: =
Essendon (14th, 7-15, 2009) 8th, 11-10-1, lost Elim. Rating: =

2012

Adelaide (14th, 7-15, 2009) 2nd, 17-5-1, lost Prelim. Rating: -
Fremantle (11th, 9-13, 2010) 7th, 14-8, lost Semi. Rating: +
North Melbourne (9th, 10-12, 2008) 8th, 14-8 lost Elim. Rating: =

2013

Richmond (12th, 10-11-1, 2001) 5th, 15-7, lost Elim. Rating: -
Port Adelaide (14th, 5-16-1, 2007) 7th, 12-10, lost Semi. Rating: +
Carlton (10th, 11-11, 2011) 8th*, 11-11, lost Semi. Rating: +

2014

North Melbourne (10th, 10-12, 2012) 6th, 14-8, lost Prelim. Rating: +
Essendon* (9th, 14-8, 2011) 7th, 12-9-1, lost Elim. Rating: =

2015

West Coast (9th, 11-11, 2012) 2nd, 16-5-1, lost GF, Rating: =
Western Bulldogs (14th, 7-15, 2010) 6th, 14-8, lost Elim, Rating: -
Adelaide (10th, 11-11, 2012) 7th, 13-8*, lost Semi. Rating: +

2016

Geelong (10th, 11-9-1, 2014) 2nd, 17-5, lost Prelim. Rating: -
GWS (11th, 11-11, first) 4th, 16-6, lost Prelim. Rating: =

2017

Richmond (13th, 8-14, 2015) 3rd, 15-7, PREMIER, Rating: ++
Port Adelaide (10th, 10-12, 2014) 5th, 14-8, lost Elim. Rating: -
Essendon (18th, 3-19, 2014) 7th, 12-10, lost Elim. Rating: =

2018

Collingwood (13th, 9-12-1, 2013) 3rd, 15-7, lost GF. Rating: +
Hawthorn (12th, 10-11-1, 2016) 4th, 15-7, lost Semi. Rating: -
Melbourne (9th, 12-10, 2006) 5th, 14-8, lost Prelim. Rating: +

2019

Brisbane Lions (15th, 5-17, 2009) 2nd, 16-6, lost Semi. Rating: -
Western Bulldogs (13th, 8-14, 2016) 7th, 13-9, lost Elim. Rating: =
Essendon (11th, 12-10, 2017) 8th, 12-10, lost Elim. Rating: =

2020

Port Adelaide (10th, 11-11, 2017) 1st, 14-3, lost Prelim. Rating: -
St Kilda (14th, 9-13, 2011) 6th, 10-7, lost Semi. Rating: =

2021

Melbourne (9th, 9-8, 2019) 1st, 17-4-1, PREMIER. Rating: +
Sydney (16th, 5-12, 2018) 6th, 15-7, lost Elim. Rating: -
GWS (10th, 8-9, 2019) 7th, 11-11, lost Semi, Rating: +
Essendon (13th, 6-10-1, 2019) 8th, 11-11, lost Elim. Rating: =

2022

Collingwood (17th, 6-16, 2020) 4th, 16-6, lost Prelim, Rating: =
Fremantle (11th, 10-12, 2015) 5th, 15-6-1, lost Semi, Rating: =
Richmond (12th, 9-12-1, 2020) 7th, 13-8-1, lost Elim, Rating: =

2023

Port Adelaide (11th, 10-12, 2021) 3rd, 17-6, lost Semi, Rating: -
Carlton (9th, 12-10, 2013) 5th, 13-9-1, lost Prelim. Rating: +
St Kilda (10th, 11-11, 2020) 6th, 13-10, lost Elim, Rating: -
GWS (16th, 6-16, 2021) 7th, 13-10, lost Prelim, Rating: ++

2024

Geelong (12th, 10-12-1, 2022) 3rd, 15-8, lost Prelim, Rating: =
Western Bulldogs (9th, 12-11, 2022) 6th, 14-9, lost Elim, Rating: -
Hawthorn (16th, 7-16, 2018) 7th, 14-9, Lost Semi, Rating: +

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

Tl:dr

 

[Mr Meow]

Specifically, I'm looking at performance of teams in the finals that weren't in the finals the previous year. I'm starting my analysis from 1994, when the eight team final system was introduced. I don't think the change in finals structure later is a big deal, but it does make the finals more orderly.

I don't have a point to make - I'm just looking at facts, and before compiling the data I don't know what it will imply.

I will grade teams on finals performance based on HOA placing. Essentially, I'll give them a plus for every week by which they exceed expectations, and a minus for ever week by which they fall short. Under the current finals system, that would entail:

1st/2nd: Par=Losing GF.
3rd/4th: Par=Losing Prelim.
5th/6th: Par=Losing Semi.
7th/8th: Par=Losing Elim.

1/2 and 5/6 will meet these expectations less often and 7/8 will exceed them because there are no expectations.

There is a (slight) plus trend because I'm allowing another plus for winning the premiership. This would account for a total of +4 (four premiers didn't play finals the year before) but the overall total is +7 - teams which didn't play finals last year actually slightly overperform expectations.



Sorting by team:

Adelaide: 5 instances, total +1
Brisbane: 3 instances, total -1
Carlton: 4 instances, total +4
Collingwood: 5 instances, total +1
Essendon: 8 instances, total -1
Fremantle: 5 instances, total 0
Geelong: 6 instances, total 0
GWS: 3 instances, total +3
Hawthorn: 6 instances, total +1
Melbourne: 7 instances: total +4
North Melbourne: 5 instances, total 0
Port Adelaide: 7 instances, total -3
Richmond 5 instances, total +1
St Kilda: 5 instances, total -1
Sydney: 5 instances, total +1
West Coast: 3 instances, total 0
Western Bulldogs: 7 instances, total -1

Adelaide conforms to expectations least (they match only once, fall short twice and exceed twice). Carlton, GWS and Melbourne have good records, and Port have a fairly poor record. But the variation is not great, and teams notorious as finals hard nuts (like Geelong or Collingwood) are nothing special here.

Sorting by previous year's place on the premiership table.
(Note: I'm treating 1993 placings as two places below where they really are, so Geelong were 7th but they didn't play finals so I'm treating it as 9th).

9th: 15 instances, total +6.
10th: 17 instances, total -1
11th: 14 instances, total +1
12th: 13 instances, total +1
13th: 7 instances, total +2
14th: 12 instances, total -2
15th: 4 instances, total -2
16th: 5 instances, total +2
17th: 1 instance, total 0
18th: 1 instance, total 0

Not a lot of big conclusions to draw here, but teams which finished one place out of the finals last year do quite well. Being a long way out of the finals doesn't matter much.

Sorted by win/loss differential the previous year.

+6: 1 instance (when Essendon got caught), 0
+4: 1 instance (Geelong missed the finals in 1993 with 12-8), +1
+2: 7 instances, +1
+1: 3 instances, 0
0: 13 instances, +3
-1: 5 instances, +1
-2: 13 instances, -3
-3: 5 instances, +1
-4: 11 instances, +2
-6: 8 instances, +3 (two premiers - Adelaide 97 and Richmond 17 - were -6 the previous year)
-7: 3 instances, -2
-8: 5 instances, -2
-9: 1 instance, +1
-10: 4 instances, +3
-11: 2 instances, +1
-12: 4 instances, -3
-14: 1 instance, -1
-16: 2 instances, 0
-18: 1 instance, 0

Sorted by number of years since the team played finals. This was of particular interest, because some people say that statistically teams without finals experience don't win in finals. I think the results make it clear that isn't true.

2 years: 39 instances, +4
3 years: 18 instances, -3
4 years: 7 instances, +3
5 years: 5 instances, 0
6 years: 6 instances, +3
7 years: 1 instance, 0
8 years: 2 instances, +1
9 years: 2 instances, 0
10+ years: 5 instances, 0
First time in finals: 4 instances, -1

Sorting by ladder position when they make finals. This will be a little skewed - higher expectations on 1st/2nd and 5th/6th suggest the averages should be negative, whereas 7/8 will always exceed expectations on average because there aren't any.

1st: 6 instances, 0 (two won the premiership, two missed the GF)
2nd: 5 instances, -3 (2/5 teams made the grand final, neither won it).
3rd: 11 instances, +2
4th: 14 instances, +2
5th: 13 instances, -5. This position is cursed - two teams have made prelims, but seven have been eliminated immediately.
6th: 10 instances, -1. Less cursed than 5th, for no obvious reason.
7th: 16 instances, +9. Two teams have made prelims from here.
8th: 14 instances, +3. Only 3/14 have won a game, and none more than one.




The raw data is below.

(previous year's placing, previous season's W-L, year last played finals)

1994: (Finals expanded to 8 teams)

Geelong (7th, 12-8, 1992) 4th, 13-9, lost GF. Rating: +
Footscray (9th, 11-9, 1992) 5th, 13-9. Lost semi. Rating: =
Melbourne (10th, 10-10, 1991) 7th, 12-10. Lost prelim. Rating: ++
Collingwood (8th, 11-9, 1992) 8th, 12-10. Lost elim. Rating: =

1995:

Richmond (9th, 12-10, 1982) 3rd, 15-6-1, Lost prelim. Rating: =
Essendon (10th, 11-11, 1993) 4th, 14-6-2, Lost semi. Rating: -
Brisbane Bears (12th, 9-13, first) 8th, 10-12, Lost elim. Rating: =

1996:

Sydney (12th, 8-14, 1987) 1st, 16-5-1, Lost GF. Rating: =
Hawthorn (15th, 7-15, 1994) 8th, 11-10-1, Lost elim. Rating: =
1997:
St Kilda (10th, 10-12, 1992) 1st, 15-7, Lost GF. Rating: =
Western Bulldogs (15th, 5-16-1, 1995) 3rd, 14-8, Lost Prelim. Rating: =
Adelaide (12th, 8-14, 1993) 4th, 13-9, PREMIER. Rating: ++

1998:

Melbourne (16th, 4-18, 1994) 4th, 14-8, lost Prelim. Rating: =
Essendon (14th, 9-13, 1996) 8th, 12-10, lost Elim. Rating: =

1999:

Carlton (11th, 9-13, 1996) 6th, 12-10, lost GF. Rating: ++
Port Adelaide (10th, 9-12-1, first), 7th, 12-10, lost Elim. Rating: =

2000:

Melbourne (14th, 6-16, 1998) 3rd, 14-8, lost GF. Rating: +
Geelong (11th, 10-12, 1997) 5th, 12-9-1, lost Elim. Rating: -
Hawthorn (9th, 9-10-1, 1996) 8th, 12-10-0, lost Semi. Rating: +

2001

Port Adelaide (14th, 7-14-1, 1999) 3rd, 16-6, lost Semi. Rating: -
Richmond (9th, 11-11, 1995) 4th, 15-7, lost Prelim. Rating: =
Sydney (10th, 10-12, 1999) 7th, 12-10, lost Elim. Rating: =
Adelaide (11th, 9-13, 1998) 8th, 12-10, lost Elim. Rating: =

2002

Collingwood (9th, 11-11, 1994) 4th, 13-9, lost GF. Rating: +
Melbourne (11th, 10-12, 2000) 6th, 12-10, lost Semi. Rating: =
Kangaroos (13th, 9-13, 2000) 7th, 12-10, lost Elim. Rating: =
West Coast (14th, 5-17, 1999) 8th, 11-11, lost Elim. Rating: =

2003

Sydney (11th, 9-12-1, 2001) 4th, 14-8. lost Prelim. Rating: =
Fremantle (13th, 9-13, first) 5th, 14-8. lost Elim. Rating: -

2004

St Kilda (11th, 11-11, 1998) 3rd, 16-6, lost Prelim. Rating: =
Geelong (12th, 7-14-1, 2000) 4th, 15-7, lost Prelim. Rating: =
Melbourne (14th, 5-17, 2002) 5th, 14-8, lost Elim. Rating: -

2005

Adelaide (12th, 8-14, 2003) 1st, 17-5, lost Prelim. Rating: -
Kangaroos (10th, 10-12, 2002) 5th, 13-9, lost Elim. Rating: -

2006

Fremantle (10th, 11-11, 2003) 3rd, 15-7, lost Prelim. Rating: =
Collingwood (15th, 5-17, 2003) 5th, 14-8, lost Elim. Rating: -
Western Bulldogs (9th, 11-11, 2000) 8th, 13-9. Lost Semi. Rating: +

2007

Geelong (10th, 10-11-1, 2005) 1st, 18-4, PREMIER. Rating: +
Port Adelaide (12th, 8-14, 2005) 2nd, 15-7, lost GF. Rating: =
Kangaroos (14th, 7-15, 2005) 4th, 14-8, lost Prelim. Rating: =
Hawthorn (11th, 9-13, 2001) 5th, 13-9, lost Semi. Rating: =

2008

Western Bulldogs (13th, 9-12-1, 2006) 3rd, 15-6-1, lost Prelim. Rating: =
St Kilda (9th, 11-10-1, 2006) 4th, 13-9, lost Prelim. Rating: =

2009

Brisbane (10th, 10-12, 2004) 6th, 13-8-1, lost Semi. Rating: =
Carlton (11th, 10-12, 2001) 7th, 13-9, lost Elim. Rating: =
Essendon (12th, 8-14, 2004) 8th, 10-11-1, lost Elim. Rating: =

2010

Sydney (12th, 8-14, 2008) 5th, 13-9, lost Semi. Rating: =
Fremantle (14th, 6-16, 2006) 6th, 13-9, lost Semi. Rating: =
Hawthorn (9th, 9-13, 2008) 7th, 12-9-1, lost Elim. Rating: =

2011

West Coast (16th, 4-18, 2007) 4th, 17-5-0, lost Prelim. Rating: =
Essendon (14th, 7-15, 2009) 8th, 11-10-1, lost Elim. Rating: =

2012

Adelaide (14th, 7-15, 2009) 2nd, 17-5-1, lost Prelim. Rating: -
Fremantle (11th, 9-13, 2010) 7th, 14-8, lost Semi. Rating: +
North Melbourne (9th, 10-12, 2008) 8th, 14-8 lost Elim. Rating: =

2013

Richmond (12th, 10-11-1, 2001) 5th, 15-7, lost Elim. Rating: -
Port Adelaide (14th, 5-16-1, 2007) 7th, 12-10, lost Semi. Rating: +
Carlton (10th, 11-11, 2011) 8th*, 11-11, lost Semi. Rating: +

2014

North Melbourne (10th, 10-12, 2012) 6th, 14-8, lost Prelim. Rating: +
Essendon* (9th, 14-8, 2011) 7th, 12-9-1, lost Elim. Rating: =

2015

West Coast (9th, 11-11, 2012) 2nd, 16-5-1, lost GF, Rating: =
Western Bulldogs (14th, 7-15, 2010) 6th, 14-8, lost Elim, Rating: -
Adelaide (10th, 11-11, 2012) 7th, 13-8*, lost Semi. Rating: +

2016

Geelong (10th, 11-9-1, 2014) 2nd, 17-5, lost Prelim. Rating: -
GWS (11th, 11-11, first) 4th, 16-6, lost Prelim. Rating: =

2017

Richmond (13th, 8-14, 2015) 3rd, 15-7, PREMIER, Rating: ++
Port Adelaide (10th, 10-12, 2014) 5th, 14-8, lost Elim. Rating: -
Essendon (18th, 3-19, 2014) 7th, 12-10, lost Elim. Rating: =

2018

Collingwood (13th, 9-12-1, 2013) 3rd, 15-7, lost GF. Rating: +
Hawthorn (12th, 10-11-1, 2016) 4th, 15-7, lost Semi. Rating: -
Melbourne (9th, 12-10, 2006) 5th, 14-8, lost Prelim. Rating: +

2019

Brisbane Lions (15th, 5-17, 2009) 2nd, 16-6, lost Semi. Rating: -
Western Bulldogs (13th, 8-14, 2016) 7th, 13-9, lost Elim. Rating: =
Essendon (11th, 12-10, 2017) 8th, 12-10, lost Elim. Rating: =

2020

Port Adelaide (10th, 11-11, 2017) 1st, 14-3, lost Prelim. Rating: -
St Kilda (14th, 9-13, 2011) 6th, 10-7, lost Semi. Rating: =

2021

Melbourne (9th, 9-8, 2019) 1st, 17-4-1, PREMIER. Rating: +
Sydney (16th, 5-12, 2018) 6th, 15-7, lost Elim. Rating: -
GWS (10th, 8-9, 2019) 7th, 11-11, lost Semi, Rating: +
Essendon (13th, 6-10-1, 2019) 8th, 11-11, lost Elim. Rating: =

2022

Collingwood (17th, 6-16, 2020) 4th, 16-6, lost Prelim, Rating: =
Fremantle (11th, 10-12, 2015) 5th, 15-6-1, lost Semi, Rating: =
Richmond (12th, 9-12-1, 2020) 7th, 13-8-1, lost Elim, Rating: =

2023

Port Adelaide (11th, 10-12, 2021) 3rd, 17-6, lost Semi, Rating: -
Carlton (9th, 12-10, 2013) 5th, 13-9-1, lost Prelim. Rating: +
St Kilda (10th, 11-11, 2020) 6th, 13-10, lost Elim, Rating: -
GWS (16th, 6-16, 2021) 7th, 13-10, lost Prelim, Rating: ++

2024

Geelong (12th, 10-12-1, 2022) 3rd, 15-8, lost Prelim, Rating: =
Western Bulldogs (9th, 12-11, 2022) 6th, 14-9, lost Elim, Rating: -
Hawthorn (16th, 7-16, 2018) 7th, 14-9, Lost Semi, Rating: +

I'd actually be interested in seeing you complete this for top 4 sides of the AFL era to measure which clubs have over or under performed in finals relative to H&A.

You could do all 8 finalists but the 5th-8th positions are less interesting - they would just highlight a few outlier cases of teams going deep from outside the top 4.

 

[Hobbes]

I'd actually be interested in seeing you complete this for top 4 sides of the AFL era to measure which clubs have over or under performed in finals relative to H&A.

You could do all 8 finalists but the 5th-8th positions are less interesting - they would just highlight a few outlier cases of teams going deep from outside the top 4.

Not that hard to do - it would just take me a couple of hours for the spreadsheet.

 

[Mr Meow]

Not that hard to do - it would just take me a couple of hours for the spreadsheet.

I'd owe you one if you did it! For your own selfish reasons, it might be fun to see where Adelaide sit. I guess '97-98 would cancel out perceived underperformance in some other finals series.

 

[Hobbes]

I'd owe you one if you did it! For your own selfish reasons, it might be fun to see where Adelaide sit. I guess '97-98 would cancel out perceived underperformance in some other finals series.

Except that in 1998, Adelaide weren't top 4. (Yes, it was different then - 4th and 5th were mathematically almost identical, but I'm not taking that into account).

 

[Headless]

Interesting stats - nice work.

 

[NetworkNerd]

No side has won the flag without making finals in the previous 4 years... doesnt bode well for Adelaide/Gold Coast chances

 

[kranky al]

No side has won the flag without making finals in the previous 4 years... doesnt bode well for Adelaide/Gold Coast chances

Adelaide quite average on the road this year too …. Be alright if they face a non tenant but you wouldnt back them against pies, cats or even the hawks on the big day

 

[My Tilly]

No side has won the flag without making finals in the previous 4 years... doesnt bode well for Adelaide/Gold Coast chances

Unsurprising really.

Not the case in other sports around the globe but for our sport, you have to be battled tested for finals in order to make the eventual breakthrough. It's a completely different beast.

 

[Hobbes]

Adelaide quite average on the road this year too …. Be alright if they face a non tenant but you wouldnt back them against pies, cats or even the hawks on the big day

"Quite average on the road"

61 point win at the MCG
1 point loss away to Gold Coast (after a late umpiring howler that probably cost them the game)
18 point loss away to Fremantle (tbf, the final margin flattered them)
10 point loss to Collingwood at the MCG
90 point win against Sydney at the SCG
3 point loss to Hawthorn in a frozen hellscape in Tasmania
68 win at the MCG
11 point win against the Bulldogs, who were apparently unbeatable at Marvel
I'm not bothering to evaluate the match against Power, although the crowd composition is very different for an away showdown.

That's eight away games so far, five of them against teams from the top 9, for a 50% record. The largest loss is 18 points, and an average result of more than +4 goals.

 

[kranky al]

"Quite average on the road"

61 point win at the MCG
1 point loss away to Gold Coast (after a late umpiring howler that probably cost them the game)
18 point loss away to Fremantle (tbf, the final margin flattered them)
10 point loss to Collingwood at the MCG
90 point win against Sydney at the SCG
3 point loss to Hawthorn in a frozen hellscape in Tasmania
68 win at the MCG
11 point win against the Bulldogs, who were apparently unbeatable at Marvel
I'm not bothering to evaluate the match against Power, although the crowd composition is very different for an away showdown.

That's eight away games so far, five of them against teams from the top 9, for a 50% record. The largest loss is 18 points, and an average result of more than +4 goals.

Yeah and how many of those on the roadwins were against the top 8?

Western bulldogs although not currently in the 8 are thereabouts. Still ill give you them.

Sydney ? Percentage and 3 games behind the ninth placed dogs.

Lost to top 8

collingwood
Hawthorn
Gold coast
Freo

Won against dogs who aren’t currently in the 8

Beat
Essendon 13th
Sydney 10th
Richmond 17th




Like I said a pretty average away from home record, you aren’t scaring mcg teams, you stand a much better chance against an interstate team on gf day…. Except Brisbane, they would be too hard of a nut to crack imho.