Analysis Permutations

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I have no doubts they could win it from 4th but what hurts Freo the most is the travel.

Really, they should just stay in Melb for the month.
 
13then7 said:
This would be a blockbuster and I would love to see the AFL try to move the game to Geelong. The interest in this game would be huge.

As a Freo supporter there is nothing that really worries me about playing Geelong. We have been in pretty poor form and still only went down by one point, and should have won it.
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I would rather play at Kardinia anyway. The narrow ground suits our gameplan much better than playing them at the G (not that it mattered in 2012). Although, if played in Melbourne, it would most probably be at Eddies Hat. Ahhh what am I talking about? We'll beat them wherever we play. Anyone, anywhere, anytime.
 

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Freo Dr said:
Yep Sydney will finish top and we should finish 4th or 3rd depending on us and Geelong vs the Dawks. Fair chance that the Port game will be a dead rubber in which case we rest players knowing we have to travel week one of the finals. That would be the plan - try to win the next two and then rest Vs Port. AFL will whinge again no doubt!
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Rest players at home the week before a final? Loco.
 
Boppo said:
Rest players at home the week before a final? Loco.
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Absolutely. Any players with niggles as it will save them another 6 day break with travel. We rested a whole bunch last year - didn't affect our form the following week. Situation (if we get to that point) is no different just because we are at home.
 
13then7 said:
This would be a blockbuster and I would love to see the AFL try to move the game to Geelong. The interest in this game would be huge.

As a Freo supporter there is nothing that really worries me about playing Geelong. We have been in pretty poor form and still only went down by one point, and should have won it.
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They've already stated that there are no games played at Geelong in the finals this year.
 
I love stats. Since the introduction of the 18 team competition no team has ever won a flag from outside 2nd place. We're no chance.
 

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MrSynthesist said:
True but it's just a statistical anomaly. Teams have won from 3rd and there is essentially no difference between 3rd and 4th
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Well, there is, in that the third placed team is, presumably, better over the course of the season and gets to play a lesser team.

Even if fourth is better than third, chances are first is still better the second.

It's not really that anomalous - I'd say it's to be expected.
 
hoss said:
I love stats. Since the introduction of the 18 team competition no team has ever won a flag from outside 2nd place. We're no chance.
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But GWS's first season was 2012 and Sydney won the flag from 3rd?

Since the introduction of the 18 team competition no team other than Hawthorn has ever finished the season as minor premiers.


But I'm just not convinced that two seasons is a large enough sample group for the rest of us to start playing for 2nd-spoon.
 
Can we win all 3 and still finish 4th?
I think we can beat the Swans, it will be like last year, no one will back us, hopefully Sydney will eat it up and we jump them. Ideally they go out in straight sets, it'd be poetic.
 
I think we can beat Sydney and Geelong in finals. but perhaps not hawks due to stigma and way we match up.

What scenario sees us miss the hawks completely????

Make it happen statical fiends.
 
Docker Alyssa said:
I think we can beat Sydney and Geelong in finals. but perhaps not hawks due to stigma and way we match up.

What scenario sees us miss the hawks completely????

Make it happen statical fiends.
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Unlikely but.....

1. Syd
2. Hawks
3. Gee
4. Freo

Qualifying Finals
Syd v Freo ---> Freo win
Hawks v Gee ---> Hawks win.

Freo and Hawks both get a week off and go through to host a Preliminary Finals against the winners of the Semi Finals:

Freo win and go through to the Grand Final. Hawks lose and are eliminated. Freo play someone else in the GF.
 
Edit: beat me to it AB but yeah similar senarios, though in yours Hawks could lose out to Sydney in the Prelim which is probably more likely

The most likely I think would Sydney minor premiers but we beat them from 4th, Geelong beat Hawks and then Hawks go out in straight sets leaving us to make our second GF by beating 6th or 7th.

My dream run would be beat Sydney in Sydney week one, play Hawthorn at home in our prelim where I think we're a much better chance and then catch up with our friends Geelong in the last day in September.

Highly unlikely I know but it'd be a fairly popular match up I would have thought, though both teams could be fielding all new recruits and rookies for a few weeks next year :)
 
Quokka said:
My dream run would be beat Sydney in Sydney week one, play Hawthorn at home in our prelim where I think we're a much better chance and then catch up with our friends Geelong in the last day in September.
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I think this is the only way you'll win the flag this year, knocking off Sydney from 4th and hoping Geelong can get over Hawthorn in the other QF, leading to a Geelong vs. Fremantle GF. At least you'd be able to wear all purple this time around.

I guess there is still a remote chance for 2nd though. You would need Hawthorn to lose all three games, Geelong to beat Hawks then lose their other two games, and obviously you would need to win all remaining games thereafter.
 
Quokka said:
Edit: beat me to it AB but yeah similar senarios, though in yours Hawks could lose out to Sydney in the Prelim which is probably more likely

The most likely I think would Sydney minor premiers but we beat them from 4th, Geelong beat Hawks and then Hawks go out in straight sets leaving us to make our second GF by beating 6th or 7th.

My dream run would be beat Sydney in Sydney week one, play Hawthorn at home in our prelim where I think we're a much better chance and then catch up with our friends Geelong in the last day in September.

Highly unlikely I know but it'd be a fairly popular match up I would have thought, though both teams could be fielding all new recruits and rookies for a few weeks next year :)
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That's how I see it as well. Beat Sydney in the first week, Geelong beats Hawks in the QF, we defeat Hawks in the PF at home and then meet Geelong in the GF... how fiery will that be!
 
Mr Dribble Kick said:
Can we win all 3 and still finish 4th?
I think we can beat the Swans, it will be like last year, no one will back us, hopefully Sydney will eat it up and we jump them. Ideally they go out in straight sets, it'd be poetic.
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Even if we win all 3, finishing 4th is probably the most likely outcome.

Sydney needs to win 2 or 3 of the games they are hot favourites for. (my numbers say 97% probability of that)
Geelong needs to win 2 or 3 of its games - about 79% probability of that.
Hawthorn needs to win 2 or 3, or even 1 and maintain its healthy percentage lead over Freo. They are basically 50/50 to beat Geelong, and should beat Collingwood. The chance of finishing ahead of us is also 60+%.
 
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