Preview PF Fremantle v Hawthorn (Hawks are welcome)

[Clems Knee]

Believing that umpires and the AFL don't deliberately cheat or favour teams is not "mainstream", it's just sensible in the absence of compelling evidence to the contrary.

If you do what I suggested and get someone suitably qualified to take a proper look at the data then I'm sure many people (myself included) would be interested.

Two things: firstly the stats that are needed; numbers of incorrect frees given and number of frees missed by particular umpires in a game are not available in the public sphere. They are available to the Umpiring department. They should have the competence to look into it, but haven't.

Secondly, umpires should be beyond reproach - there should be no suggestion of favouritism or otherwise. Playing an umpire with an axe to grind in a game involving the coach who sacked him is unforgivable. That is the umpires department's fault. Perhaps they are naive, more likely too bone headed to accept that there could be that perception.We know soccer has similar problems in Australia; the referee whose girlfriend worked for Brisbane officiated in their final. It didn't matter how well he officiated, there was a stink, and he shouldn't have been there.

A lot of the fault lies with how the AFL makes appointments. Ex players have agendas, yet they have taken up umpiring, umpiring department positions, the match review panel and the tribunal. If they still have strong affinities with a club, they should not be appointed.

 

[lusheslewis]

And your thoughts on a delisted former player umpiring against the man who ended his career?

They go through every decision of every match. If he seriously had a grudge they would know.

 

[Wundo]

Not always, but people who are quick to throw the "conspiracy" label out there tend not to question mainstream. Again, you are not the target audience and there is little use trying to tell you, a West Coast supporter something about umpiring when your team currently has a Free Kick differential (Frees For - Frees Against) for 2015 of (424-324) positive 80, while Freo have (394-446) negative 52, that is a 132 Free Kick difference. Who can blame you for arguing a case for the current umpiring status quo.

Wow, just.. wow.
The best thing that can be said about you is that you've obviously put in a bit of effort wrt recording free kicks in games. Your analysis and conclusions, however, are ridiculous at best. Tin foil hats for everyone...

 

[Nothing]

They go through every decision of every match. If he seriously had a grudge they would know.

Fisher hasn't umpired Freo since a debacle of a game either the end of last year or earlier this year. They know now. It should have been apparent beforehand though.

 

[Pavs_Risotto]

Far too much of this thread has been devoted to the umpires, I reckon. I won't be blaming the umpires if we lose tomorrow.

 

[AAACockburn]

Que sera sera.
The good thing is if we win tomorrow. It will feel so bloody good that we will be able to ride the high through to the following week!
Everyone has written us off and people are losing confidence.

There is nothing we can do about it but see what happens.
Oh and.

Unleash the otter.
He Has done well in the past.

 

[Freo88]

I just hope we grind it out in a low scoring contest, that's when we're at our best.
Start is so important and we've got to set the tone and not blast it inside 50 without looking.
It's a mind-set thing. If we're lowering our eyes early and picking off targets, it gives their backs something else to think about and they won't all just swarm back for the long bomb in.

Crowd will be crazy and sounds like its going to be a bit of a cauldron.

 

[Pavs_Risotto]

I just hope we grind it out in a low scoring contest, that's when we're at our best.
Start is so important and we've got to set the tone and not blast it inside 50 without looking.
It's a mind-set thing. If we're lowering our eyes early and picking off targets, it gives their backs something else to think about and they won't all just swarm back for the long bomb in.

Crowd will be crazy and sounds like its going to be a bit of a cauldron.

I double agree with this post.

 

[Borderline]

Que Sera, Sera
Whatever will be, will be
We're off to the MCG
Que Sera, Sera

 

[itsduffy]

The umpires decisions wouldn't matter if we'd stopped screwing around

 

[freo_leo29]

uhhhh i can't sleep, can't imagine what some of the players would be going through.(hope they are sleeping by now!)
The worst thing is i have the whole day off tomorrow, it is going to drag on for an eternity

 

[PurpleEyes]

Fisher hasn't umpired Freo since a debacle of a game either the end of last year or earlier this year. They know now. It should have been apparent beforehand though.

After Fisher's somewhat questionable umpiring in 2014 R18 SK vs FR, he was appointed to umpire Fremantle in the very next game, round 19, then again in 2015 in round 7 and round 11. In none of those matches did Fremantle end up on the positive side of the Free Kicks.
In Round 7 WB vs FR, the Bulldogs received 14 Free Kicks in a row. Free Kicks were 15 For WB vs 2 For FR at one stage of the game.

 

[PurpleEyes]

Wow, just.. wow.
The best thing that can be said about you is that you've obviously put in a bit of effort wrt recording free kicks in games. Your analysis and conclusions, however, are ridiculous at best. Tin foil hats for everyone...

My "analysis and conclusions" that I have posted have consisted of statistical samples/evidence that supports a scenario of umpiring bias. Where did I make any conclusions? I think you maybe the one who has made inferences/conclusions from my data and because they do not adhere to what you believe, you possibly find comfort in making tin foil references. I could easily find labels for you, but that contributes nothing to any discussion regarding startling free kick statistics now does it?

 

[PurpleEyes]

Yes its very easy to be dismissive - but all your stats are still subjective.

To your point on Pav and Sandi, often as players age they get slower and thus have to resort to other tactics to stay in the contest. I would've thought this is a perfectly reasonable explanation as to why they may have given away a few more free kicks this year. Every year is different anyway - why should statistical trends in free kicks awarded hold true every year. This is not the class room, its a real game of sport with infinite variables.

What exactly are you expecting with the umpiring - that we win the free kick count every week? Just because we lose the free kick count does not mean the kick didn't deserve to be awarded. You talk about going over hours of footage in slow motion, but you are biased in your views- of course you're going to say we were hard done by. Free kick tally's do not tell the whole story of the way the game was played and they do not serve as objective factual statistics as you claim.

I'm not saying umpires don't make mistakes but what you are claiming by the umpires is essentially cheating.

So by your reasoning, you claim I am bias when watching a video replay in slow motion, and any claims I have of certain umpires being bias is ridiculous (you used the word cheating, I never have).
You seem to make an argument that using Free Kick statistics is not good evidence when discussing umpiring bias.
Your counter arguments (eg. Pav & Sandi older therefore more frees against) are even less convincing than your original off the cuff dismissive arguments blaming the players.
You question my expectations and appear to infer that to win the free kick count every week would be unrealistic. That is true. Yet the fact that Fremantle have lost the Free Kick count in 7 of their 8 Finals appearances under RTB, or their last 11 games lost, or the 14 Frees in a row vs WB R7 2015 with Fisher (Dalgleish & Stevic) umpiring, or in the last 17 games where we have won the Free Kick count only twice (R14 Brisbane Lions and R18 GWS), ... should all just be dismissed or accepted as normal.

My stats are not for you, I think I've got that.

 

[Jafa]

Game day. Sitting in the airport flying to the city that has no finals this weekend.

Good luck for tonite. Hopefully it's a cracker.

 

[sij1981]

Fremantle's last 11 losses now have all been in games where Freo ended on the wrong side of the Free Kick tally. ... That's a little more than just a team not getting a good break.

Again, it's very easy to take comfort in dismissing the evidence and to just paint the publisher of such evidence as a ridiculous crying conspiracy theorist, but that doesn't bother me, you are not my target audience. My information is intended towards the supporters who currently have a belief that Freo are hard done by, but they don't have any data supporting such beliefs. They're not going to get that data via the media. An internet forum is the perfect place to find such data.
Hopefully, a few more fans, armed with knowledge of supporting data of umpiring bias, may be yelling and supporting the loudest tomorrow night when Rosebury decides to make another shocking decision against Freo. One thing I do know, those fans being extra vocal will help more than you will, by simply dismissing it as sooking, irrelevant of whether I'm right or wrong about umpiring bias.

I was at the Novotel today morning and guess who I saw there 3 people wearing afl umpire logos, then I asked them are you the umps for tonight and it was silent. Mind you I was wearing Fremantle clothing.

 

[Moo]

Don't forget the conspiracy within the AFL to select these known cheaters for Fremantle games. Or does the AFL tell them to pay frees against Freo? I'm not sure which is more insane to be honest.

Use the code words please - these forums are monitored.

 

[sproketman]

Believing that umpires and the AFL don't deliberately cheat or favour teams is not "mainstream", it's just sensible in the absence of compelling evidence to the contrary.

If you do what I suggested and get someone suitably qualified to take a proper look at the data then I'm sure many people (myself included) would be interested.

Why? Sport is so often corrupt, and always has been. The AFL go out of their way to overtly manipulate the game in ways that serve their interests as individuals. That's what we know publicly. There's bound to be more going on underneath.

Look at the Buddy saga. The Swans use their obscene salary cap allowance to poach the best forward in the game on a massive contract. However the AFL intended for him to go to GWS. So they strip the Swans of their allowance and slap a punitive penalty on them. Now Buddy is on leave for depression (I'll take that at face value, but given everything that went on regarding Essendon, it's difficult to trust what any club says).

I would not be at all surprised if the AFL decided they wanted an all-WA GF and manipulated tonight's umpiring to allow for it. They would have done the numbers on a novelty interstate GF between two arch rivals and found it would rate best of all the four combinations.

I'm sure you thought there was no evidence FIFA were corrupt. Until, of course, there was.

 

[Tonga Bob]

Que Sera, Sera
Whatever will be, will be
We're off to the MCG
Que Sera, Sera

Was going to save this one for around 11:30pm...

 

[FreoGirl]

Well I did join a month after we won the spoon so give me some credit.

isn't the soggy biscuit circle occupying you enough on your page?

 

[estibador]

I would not be at all surprised if the AFL decided they wanted an all-WA GF and manipulated tonight's umpiring to allow for it. They would have done the numbers on a novelty interstate GF between two arch rivals and found it would rate best of all the four combinations.

That's all I ask for - to be on the right side of the corruption for a change.

 

[sproketman]

That's all I ask for - to be on the right side of the corruption for a change.

Ask Saints fans and we always have.

 

[Freo]

My "analysis and conclusions" that I have posted have consisted of statistical samples/evidence that supports a scenario of umpiring bias. Where did I make any conclusions? I think you maybe the one who has made inferences/conclusions from my data and because they do not adhere to what you believe, you possibly find comfort in making tin foil references. I could easily find labels for you, but that contributes nothing to any discussion regarding startling free kick statistics now does it?

Pow!

 

[sij1981]

Que sera sera.
The good thing is if we win tomorrow. It will feel so bloody good that we will be able to ride the high through to the following week!
Everyone has written us off and people are losing confidence.

There is nothing we can do about it but see what happens.
Oh and.
View attachment 177157
Unleash the otter.
He Has done well in the past.

Even the

Why? Sport is so often corrupt, and always has been. The AFL go out of their way to overtly manipulate the game in ways that serve their interests as individuals. That's what we know publicly. There's bound to be more going on underneath.

Look at the Buddy saga. The Swans use their obscene salary cap allowance to poach the best forward in the game on a massive contract. However the AFL intended for him to go to GWS. So they strip the Swans of their allowance and slap a punitive penalty on them. Now Buddy is on leave for depression (I'll take that at face value, but given everything that went on regarding Essendon, it's difficult to trust what any club says).

I would not be at all surprised if the AFL decided they wanted an all-WA GF and manipulated tonight's umpiring to allow for it. They would have done the numbers on a novelty interstate GF between two arch rivals and found it would rate best of all the four combinations.

I'm sure you thought there was no evidence FIFA were corrupt. Until, of course, there was.

That's ok I like this particular manipulation a if it eventuates

 

[sij1981]

p

Was going to save this one for around 11:30pm...

Please let's not jinx.