Opinion Pick 1... is Cam Rayner

[SizeMatters]

can't afford to have another Schache that can't fit into the playing group = massive go home factor.
We need someone with a confidence in themselves and from all reports Rayner has fit in well with his playing groups across all levels of competition.

 

[briztoon]

And just because everyone likes videos and this years kids aren't exciting, except Rayner.

 

[briztoon]

And Rayner's team mate, Lachlan Fogarty.



https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=lachlan+fogarty

 

[briztoon]

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=james+worpel

 

[marooned]

Thanks for all the clips briztoon.outstanding ☺

 

[BuntonRules]

I hope Hodge helps with keeping whoever we pick..

I hope Hodge has a say in who we pick.

 

[charles202]

I'm still in the Dow camp as his skill set isn't one that we have in the young group, inside mid with pace.

His skills compliment a centre square combination that may include Berry, Matho and Keays.

I also have concerns with Rayners endurance but also that his skill set may cross over with other inside mids we already have. Plus I just can't get onboard spending pick 1 on someone who might end up playing the majority of time as a HFF.

 

[TheZork]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-10-19/trade-period-analysis-how-did-your-club-fare

Interestingly North tried to trade up their pick 4 to pick 2. They must see a bit of a gap between Dow/LDU/Rayner and Cerra/Stephenson/Brayshaw.

 

[Comeback Lions]

It was my impression that Paddy Dow had the best state champs against quality opposition and that puts him ahead for me. I like his speed and ability to break out of stoppages which reminded me of Dangerfield.

Rayner seems to be not exactly what we need, doesn’t have the midfield runs on the board of LDU and Dow, but it certainly seems possible that he could develop tank. It’s not easy to predict how players will turn out in 5 years time, but l’d go with Paddy or Luke given where we’re we currently at.

It’s a team game and l’m not completely convinced by the idea of one player as matchwinner that seems to be associated more with Rayner than the other two. He might turn out to be that, but he also sounds like has more deficiencies than the other two.

 

[POBT]

Our long term forward line plans would have included Hipwood, Schache and Ballenden. With Schache gone, we'll need to reassess at some point whether we've got enough firepower up forward.

I personally was worried about trying to fit three ruck sized players into the same forward line. I'd much rather two talls (one who can ruck) and then a group of small or medium forwards. Rayner provides really good balance in that he seems capable of playing as a primary target but is also mobile enough to contribute as a small. Midfield capability would then be a bonus.

Of course, midfield is our greatest need and the fact that our second selection is down at 15 starts to call into question whether the right midfield option would be available there. There's a really strong argument for taking the best mid at pick 1, even if Rayner is the best player.

I tend to think that if we believe Rayner is the standout best player and we believe he's a good fit culturally for us, then we should take him, even if he's not exactly what we need. The old "you draft for talent, you trade for need" saying is relevant.

However, if you could throw a blanket over the first few players and a more midfield proven option is available, then that's where we should look. In other words, midfield capability becomes a tie breaker, rather than a non-negotiable.

 

[briztoon]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-10-19/trade-period-analysis-how-did-your-club-fare

Interestingly North tried to trade up their pick 4 to pick 2. They must see a bit of a gap between Dow/LDU/Rayner and Cerra/Stephenson/Brayshaw.

I genuinely believe there is a gap between Rayner & LDU and the next of 4 or 5 kids.

Both Rayner & LDU will be able to play from round 1.

Dow I believe won't be ready until midway through the season.

 

[Chezz]

From the outset I haven't been overly impressed with LDU and Dow. No doubt both will be good players in the future, but I don't see anything elite with either.

If it's down to three then I'm definitely in the Raynor camp. He looks to be far more skilled than the other two and has a good sense of confidence, which I think alot of our previous first rounders have lacked

 

[TheZork]

I genuinely believe there is a gap between Rayner & LDU and the next of 4 or 5 kids.

Both Rayner & LDU will be able to play from round 1.

Dow I believe won't be ready until midway through the season.

I don't think that would impact our decision though, surely we pick who we think will eventually be the best.

 

[SizeMatters]

Pick 1 we will get a very good player who ever we select but I'm more interested in who we ill take with pick 15 TBH. Hopefully Clark somehow slides that far although I can't see it personally but I would definitely have a look at the high risk Bonar if he is there... but I can't shake the Morabito vibe from him.

Also interesting to see we have had multiple chats with Oscar Allen... does he have potential to play midfield minutes? I wouldn't have thought an undersized KPF is a huge need but Noble has come from the Crows who boast Lynch that can push up the ground. I wonder if they have the same role in mind for Allen?

 

[Chezz]

Pick 1 we will get a very good player who ever we select but I'm more interested in who we ill take with pick 15 TBH. Hopefully Clark somehow slides that far although I can't see it personally but I would definitely have a look at the high risk Bonar if he is there... but I can't shake the Morabito vibe from him.

Bonar will be gone by 15 for sure. I suspect we may be looking at Worpel at 15, as we're really lacking in inside mids

 

[SizeMatters]

Bonar will be gone by 15 for sure. I suspect we may be looking at Worpel at 15, as we're really lacking in inside mids

I'm not as high on Worpel as others. The way the modern game is played he will struggle with high pressure IMO... loves to just throw the ball onto his boot a lot. That's a habit that will take years if ever to fully fix.

 

[chopperduck]

Would go Bonar if there at 15, Worpel probably still there at 18. I still like Worpel, but i fear him and Matho are too similar. At this point im not too worried if guys throw it on the boot as we dont have a very good mid structure, it is still developing. If we can lift our defensive pressure and effort across our midfield to lock the ball in and slow it down more, it will be even less of an issue.

I do like the pace and kicking skill we are starting to accumulate though. If we can break a line or 2 or hit up a nice kick going back inside we can cut teams to ribbons.

 

[Dom PC]

Dow for me. From what ive watched on utube he just seems like the cleanest and most creative by disposal out of the three.

Add to that his inside grunt and speed. I am really hopeful we take him.

Rayner seems like a good finisher - but he is a forward, he should be. From what I've watched Dow has the better disposal by foot and hand around the ground.

LDU is comfortably 3rd IMO.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Our long term forward line plans would have included Hipwood, Schache and Ballenden. With Schache gone, we'll need to reassess at some point whether we've got enough firepower up forward.

I personally was worried about trying to fit three ruck sized players into the same forward line. I'd much rather two talls (one who can ruck) and then a group of small or medium forwards. Rayner provides really good balance in that he seems capable of playing as a primary target but is also mobile enough to contribute as a small. Midfield capability would then be a bonus.

Of course, midfield is our greatest need and the fact that our second selection is down at 15 starts to call into question whether the right midfield option would be available there. There's a really strong argument for taking the best mid at pick 1, even if Rayner is the best player.

I tend to think that if we believe Rayner is the standout best player and we believe he's a good fit culturally for us, then we should take him, even if he's not exactly what we need. The old "you draft for talent, you trade for need" saying is relevant.

However, if you could throw a blanket over the first few players and a more midfield proven option is available, then that's where we should look. In other words, midfield capability becomes a tie breaker, rather than a non-negotiable.

I think AFL teams will go away from 2 tall forwards...we can build our forward line around hipwood with med & smalls imo

 

[Balony_pony16]

Dow for me, he is clean like Oliver imo

 

[Mr Ripper]

Don't know anything about any of them. However, rooting for Worpel and/or Bonar for the sake of the 'most important part of draft day' thread.

 

[theteamtobeat]

I think AFL teams will go away from 2 tall forwards...we can build our forward line around hipwood with med & smalls imo

Not sure about that. It really depends if you have the talent there or not. I'm sure if we had Browny, Bradshaw and Lynch playing in these modern age that they would all be playing in the same forward line together. Those teams who are moving away from the 2 forward set-up is because they lack the personal to execute that game style structure.

 

[jackess]

I think AFL teams will go away from 2 tall forwards...we can build our forward line around hipwood with med & smalls imo

I don't think teams will completely change their game plan based on one grand final win.

 

[luthor]

I don't think teams will completely change their game plan based on one grand final win.

Agreed.

The game is ever changing and evolving.

For all we know, multiple talls could easily come back into fashion.

All it takes, is for a side to win a GF with (say) that set up and it'll be all the rage again.

 

[SizeMatters]

We will only know if we have done well when the "Who won the draft?" thread that pops up a minute after the draft is finished. I will hold judgement until then.