Analysis Pick 1: Jason Horne-Francis vs rest of the field

[Themanbun]

Why is the draft at the end of November? Seems unnecessary. Make trade week smaller, do all the testing/camps etc and it’s all wrapped up in October. Gives the young players longer to get their sh*t together and say goodbyes before training starts as well. Most don’t know where they’re going.

Year 12 exams?

 

[Shermanator]

Why is the draft at the end of November? Seems unnecessary. Make trade week smaller, do all the testing/camps etc and it’s all wrapped up in October. Gives the young players longer to get their sh*t together and say goodbyes before training starts as well. Most don’t know where they’re going.

I agree, however it always seems like forever for us NM fans because we’re not playing finals..

 

[apollo_creed]

Year 12 exams?

Yeah maybe. Been 17 years since I was in year 12 so can’t remember when exactly they are but it’s basically November right?

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Yeah maybe. Been 17 years since I was in year 12 so can’t remember when exactly they are but it’s basically November right?

My son's English exam is on Wednesday.

 

[koshari]

Why is the draft at the end of November? Seems unnecessary. Make trade week smaller, do all the testing/camps etc and it’s all wrapped up in October. Gives the young players longer to get their sh*t together and say goodbyes before training starts as well. Most don’t know where they’re going.

it used to be a lot earlier, i recall a few years back new recruits going to preseason camps when they were all the rage.

 

[blackshadow]

Tier 1
1 - Jason Horne = the ??? (I cannot think of a single possible devifishism)

The Voorhees

 

[kool kangas]

I agree, however it always seems like forever for us NM fans because we’re not playing finals..

Not for long...

 

[Liam Boy]

Year 12 exams?

Surely knowing that you've got the draft coming up just adds to the anxiety, wouldn't you be less anxious and have an easier time focusing on exams if you know what your footy fate is?

 

[The Filth Wizard]

Surely knowing that you've got the draft coming up just adds to the anxiety, wouldn't you be less anxious and have an easier time focusing on exams if you know what your footy fate is?

Conversely, shouldn't they be able to focus on their education without having to worry about a draft in the lead up? Including the disappointment of missing out before the most stressful culmination of years of education?

I'm all for the draft being much earlier, but in hand that means lifting the draft age by a year. 99% of the kids that get drafted are gonna need to nail their exams because this is not a lifetime gig.

 

[The Nostradamus]

29 days now

 

[Eggs11]

Just wondering…..did the Dees have a thread like this the year they drafted Jack Watts?

 

[Hearts to hearts]

Just wondering…..did the Dees have a thread like this the year they drafted Jack Watts?

I’d be surprised, from memory he wasn’t a runaway favourite for #1. Kreuzer maybe yes for their board?

 

[Groucho]

I’d be surprised, from memory he wasn’t a runaway favourite for #1. Kreuzer maybe yes for their board?

Kreuzer was another year. It was either Watts or Natanui

 

[hilly]

Just wondering…..did the Dees have a thread like this the year they drafted Jack Watts?

Probably. Melbourne's talent ID was shithouse.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Hearts to hearts]

Kreuzer was another year. It was either Watts or Natanui

I just meant he was a player tagged as a clear #1 ahead of the draft, so someone fans might have got excited about in advance. The Watts year, like most years, it wasn’t clear who would be picked first.

 

[koshari]

I just meant he was a player tagged as a clear #1 ahead of the draft, so someone fans might have got excited about in advance. The Watts year, like most years, it wasn’t clear who would be picked first.

was he really that clearly rated number 1?

 

[King Corey]

Jack Watts was a reasonably consensus based #1 iirc. Natanui had a bit of hype in his bottom and top age years but there were some question marks over him. Might've been to the effect that he lacked a complete game or a tank and was a collection of highlights at that point.

Watts was this well spoken, private school boy, athletic KPF and his coach commented that he should charge people to watch him train, he's that smooth. He was seen as a very good fit for Melbourne and there wasn't a huge amount of objection in the media at the time.

The lone voice of dissent I recall was a Melbourne supporter mate's dad at the time who would put a hand on my shoulder each time I saw him and (butchering the name each time) bemoan not picking Natanui instead. He seemed to spot it as a **** up from the get-go.

 

[Psicosis]

was he really that clearly rated number 1?

Having grown up playing against him, he was definitely the clear number 1. I don't think any of the 18 clubs would have passed on him for another player.

 

[Hearts to hearts]

was he really that clearly rated number 1?

The Kruezer Cup?

 

[King Corey]

The Kruezer Cup?

#1 picks that had much fanfare imo:

Josh Fraser. Was getting written up for 2-3 years prior as this new age of amazing player. That was before he was even attached to a Collingwood selection.

Luke Ball. Was getting lots of writeups, his family connections to Hawthorn were spruiked as was his intellect. Only trouble was hawks didn't take him.

Adam Cooney. Got a bit of press, Sheedy was hanging around watching him testing like some lolly carrying trenchcoat wearer. Pretty sure * did their obligatory s**t trade attempt (probably offered the dogs a 51yo Paul Van Der Haar) to try and get the pick off them.

Bryce Gibbs. Another one getting written up for 2 years leading in the draft and a BFNAAK as a bonus.

Matthew Kreuzer. Kreuzer Cup as above.

Christian Petracca. Unanimous #1 pick leading into the draft. I remember a saints mate wondering if he seemed a bit too arrogant and it was a fair question. In the end, not a problem they had to deal with.

Cameron Rayner. Lower level of fapping but definitely caught the tailwind of the 2017 Dusty train which lifted his rating a bit.

 

[joegreen]

Did a quick side by side comparison of Twomey and our own Souup, I put the tiers in brackets next to the player.

As you'd expect some rated similarly and others very differently. Love to understand more on each of those as to what they see/don't see etc.

I'm preparing to play draft bingo on Nov 24. I think I'll probably play Souup's card!

	Twomey	Souup
1	Nick Daicos	1 - Jason Horne
2	Jason Horne	2 - Finn Callaghan (T2)
3	Sam Darcy	3 - Josh Goater
4	Finn Callaghan	4 - Nick Daicos
5	Ben Hobbs	5 - Josh Sinn
6	Josh Ward	6 - Neil Erasmus
7	Josh Gibcus	7 - Josh Gibcus
8	Josh Rachele	8 - Mac Andrew
9	Mac Andrew	9 - Sam Darcy
10	Neil Erasmus	10 - Darcy Wilmot (T3)
11	Jye Amiss	11 - Josh Rachele
12	Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera	12 - Matthew Johnson
13	Josh Sinn	13 - Jacob Van Rooyen
14	Matthew Johnson	14 - Ben Hobbs
15	Arlo Draper	15 - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
16	Tyler Sonsie	16 - Tom Brown
17	Josh Goater	17 - Jye Amiss
18	Sam Butler	18 - Josh Ward (T4)
19	Darcy Wilmot	19 - Paul Curtis
20	Jesse Motlop	20 - Matt Roberts
21	Jacob Van Rooyen	21 - Tyler Sonsie
22	Campbell Chesser	22 - Jack Williams
23	Tom Brown	23 - Zac Taylor
24	Toby Conway	24 - Arlo Draper
25	Zac Taylor	25 - Leek Aleer
26	Josh Fahey	26 - Campbell Chesser (T5)
27	Matthew Roberts	27 - Rhett Bazzo
28	Blake Howes	28 - Judson Clarke
29	Marcus Windhager	29 - Lewis Rayson
30	Michito Owens	30 - Ned Long
31	Connor MacDonald	31 - Mitch Knevitt
32	Mitch Knevett	32 - Jai Serong (T6)
33	Rhett Bazzo	33 - Hugh Jackson
34	Jack Williams	34 - Blake Howes
35	Judson Clarke	35 - Sam Butler Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]
		36 - Arthur Brown
		37 - Cooper Murley (T7)
		38 - Brady Hough
		39 - Lachlan Rankin
		40 - Noah Gribble
		41 - Jesse Motlop
		42 - Oscar Morrison
		43 - Toby Conway
		44 - Josh Browne
		45 - Joel Fitzgerald
		46 - Angus Sheldrick (T8)
		47 - Conor McDonald
		48 - Noah Gadsby
		49 - Josh Fahey
		50 - Jase Burgoyne
		51 - Isaiah Dudley

 

[Colbys Boots]

Looking at that comparison, Souup appears to be a man with an opinion based upon his own observations whereas Twomey is reading the weather forecast from a teleprompter.

 

[Psicosis]

Looking at that comparison, Souup appears to be a man with an opinion based upon his own observations whereas Twomey is reading the weather forecast from a teleprompter.

I’ve got no issue with Twomey having Daicos ahead of JHF, it’s a dead heat and if both were available it would be toss of the coin.

What is very obvious throughout the last few years, is that his opinions have gone from his personal views to what he’s fed by recruiters.

The interesting thing about this article though, is that McGowan recently said that 10 out of 12 club recruiters he spoke to, had JHF at 1, so it does seem to go against that narrative. My assumption is click bait which generates discussion, which appears to be successful

 

[Colbys Boots]

I’ve got no issue with Twomey having Daicos ahead of JHF, it’s a dead heat and if both were available it would be toss of the coin.

What is very obvious throughout the last few years, is that his opinions have gone from his personal views to what he’s fed by recruiters.

The interesting thing about this article though, is that McGowan recently said that 10 out of 12 club recruiters he spoke to, had JHF at 1, so it does seem to go against that narrative. My assumption is click bait which generates discussion, which appears to be successful

I accept that Daicos vs JHF is a matter of opinion but the rest of Twomey's list compared with Souup's looks very much like a safe bookie's odds for the Melbourne Cup. It's very vanilla.

 

[Dan]

We're making a mistake on this one......we should be getting Callaghan.