Analysis Pick 1: Jason Horne-Francis vs Finn Callaghan and rest of the field

Who would you select with #1?

  • Horne-Francis

    Votes: 200 93.5%
  • Callaghan

    Votes: 11 5.1%
  • Other (please specify)

    Votes: 3 1.4%

  • Total voters
    214

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roos_fanatic08

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 21, 2008
22,210
37,164
Vic
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I had Rayner ranked 15th in his draft.

To say JHF is way ahead of Rayner at the same stage is an understatement.

I had Rayner & Dow outside the top 10. Replaced with Naughton & Fogarty. I also had Tim Kelly & Noah Balta in the top 15.

I bombed with Matt Ling & Lochie O'Brien. I though O'Brien had the potential to be one of the best from the 2017 draft because he was such a damaging kick. Still think Carlton's development has completely ruined him.

Rayner, I honestly couldn't believe he went number 1. You could see from a mile off that he wouldn't make the transition into the midfield.

On a side note, I actually had someone who was previously involved with the western jets mention to me that Eddie Ford would end up every bit as good as Rayner
 

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Souup

Norm Smith Medallist
May 8, 2005
6,274
7,903
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Can i ask why?

Not having a go either. Its cos your assessments seem pretty good.
He had no development left in his body from a weight perspective, from memory he was something around 186cm and 88kg as an 18yo. He benefited from being bigger and stronger than his peers. As others have mentioned, he came along in the year Dusty tore apart and drew comparisons to Martin despite not having the same footskills or ability to accumulate when playing in the midfield at the same age. He never showed the ability to play as a full time midfielder and I thought he would be exposed at AFL level playing midfield as he wouldn't be able to bully others. Brisbane basically spent the #1 pick on a glorified half forward flanker.

It's actually similar to my issue with Elijah Hollands last year - he's not a midfielder and hasn't shown the stoppage ability to play there. He could develop it, but midfield is the hardest position to learn. The difference between Hollands and Rayner is Hollands has as good of a skill set as you'll see - elite kick, excellent on either foot, very good one on one mark. At this stage though, he's a mercurial forward at best.

I said at the time that LDU was the best talent in the 2018 draft and that opinion hasn't changed.
 
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Conundrum

Team Captain
Jul 7, 2013
395
893
AFL Club
North Melbourne
He had no development left in his body from a weight perspective, from memory he was something around 186cm and 88kg as an 18yo. He benefited from being bigger and stronger than his peers. As others have mentioned, he came along in the year Dusty tore apart and drew comparisons to Martin despite not having the same footskills or ability to accumulate when playing in the midfield at the same age. He never showed the ability to play as a full time midfielder and I thought he would be exposed at AFL level playing midfield as he wouldn't be able to bully others. Brisbane basically spent the #1 pick on a glorified half forward flanker.

It's actually similar to my issue with Elijah Hollands last year - he's not a midfielder and hasn't shown the stoppage ability to play there. He could develop it, but midfield is the hardest position to learn. The difference between Hollands and Rayner is Hollands has as good of a skill set as you'll see - elite kick, excellent on either foot, very good one on one mark. At this stage though, he's a mercurial forward at best.

I said at the time that LDU was the best talent in the 2018 draft and that opinion hasn't changed.
Great insights, just wanted to point out your typo about the draft year, should be 2017. Otherwise, it'd be looking like a close contest between LDU and TT!
 

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AnEmptyChair

Club Legend
Nov 12, 2020
1,792
6,655
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I have a feeling that Naughton might go close by the end of his career to taking that mantle as well. Not complaining with LDU by any stretch however. He will be a star.
Yeah, Naughton will easily be the best from that draft class. I mean, there's every chance he's the best player in the game within 5 years, let alone the best player from 2017.
 

ferball

Premium Platinum
Jul 24, 2015
26,423
50,311
AFL Club
North Melbourne
He had no development left in his body from a weight perspective, from memory he was something around 186cm and 88kg as an 18yo. He benefited from being bigger and stronger than his peers. As others have mentioned, he came along in the year Dusty tore apart and drew comparisons to Martin despite not having the same footskills or ability to accumulate when playing in the midfield at the same age. He never showed the ability to play as a full time midfielder and I thought he would be exposed at AFL level playing midfield as he wouldn't be able to bully others. Brisbane basically spent the #1 pick on a glorified half forward flanker.

It's actually similar to my issue with Elijah Hollands last year - he's not a midfielder and hasn't shown the stoppage ability to play there. He could develop it, but midfield is the hardest position to learn. The difference between Hollands and Rayner is Hollands has as good of a skill set as you'll see - elite kick, excellent on either foot, very good one on one mark. At this stage though, he's a mercurial forward at best.

I said at the time that LDU was the best talent in the 2018 draft and that opinion hasn't changed.
Cheers.

I remember a bit of talk about Raynor being a man child at the time and the Dusty comparisons. I missed the draft night that year and was a bit confused when a mate said "we got the guy with the hyphen" the next morning. Because I genuinely couldn't think of anyone beside LDU with a hyphen in their name and thought there would be no way on earth he'd get to pick 4. Logged in here at the first opportunity and sure enough... i knew bolta was good. We went to the same school and he really played well, in the Herald Shield (or whatever it is these days) final according to a few people. Someone said he was a match winner. I remember my mum mentioning him on the phone one day before that draft. The only time that ever happened.

I dunno if it was some of you guys last year or just in general following the good draft watchers since I joined this board cos last year I did wonder where Hollands would pull the ability to win his own ball from. Compared to Phillips and Campbell in the Swans academy he just seemed nowhere near that sort of player. Given the time I've spent on here its good to have at least learned something.
 

amaz199

Premiership Player
Apr 5, 2015
3,685
6,906
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Was listening to the radio and already clubs are throwing everything at us lmao.

We genuinely have the midfield mix to trouble a lot of teams in front of us and it's clear just how desperate everyone else is to mitigate that.
 

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