Analysis Pick 1: Jason Horne-Francis vs rest of the field

[Swallow_Wood]

The relevant question in all of this JHF debate is.... "does he come from a basketball background?"

No but he works as a milkman, so that'll be enough to keep BT going for a decade or more.

 

[DocSholl]

He was a fairly mature mid, don’t seem to recall the other teams really needing a player like him
Still think Hill was a bit underrated (even by me first up)
May be a tad controversial but still don’t believe Bris ended up that great with Rich

When you took at the 2008 draft as a whole you could argue none of the top ten got full value. It's a ridiculous draft in terms of depth and guns going later.

 

[krakouers]

When you took at the 2008 draft as a whole you could argue none of the top ten got full value. It's a ridiculous draft in terms of depth and guns going later.

For a super draft it’s lacking in top players in the comp at the pointy end

 

[ferball]

Same school, same local club I’m pretty sure and same SANFL club. One year apart you’d think they’d definitely run in same circles.

Powell was at Sturt wasn't he?

Spicy was at South.

 

[ferball]

Not sure how he tested at the combine but he is ****ing quick. He does it sparingly but when he goes he goes.

I don't get the people who say he runs like Ablett sr. I think he runs like a proper sprinter when he goes. Have a look at that run in the SF that set up Nobes with a goal. Once he gets up on his toes he looks like lightning.

I reckon the Ablett comparisons will come for Naughton in a few years when he puts on a bit more size.

 

[Sphynx]

He was a fairly mature mid, don’t seem to recall the other teams really needing a player like him
Still think Hill was a bit underrated (even by me first up)
May be a tad controversial but still don’t believe Bris ended up that great with Rich

Rich had huge question marks on his size and athleticism and how that would transition to AFL level. Was definetely a consistent conversation in both his bottom and top age years, even down to his abnormally short arms vs the cannon of a foot he clearly possessed.

If Rich had Hornes athletic profile, he would have gone #1, by some margin.

 

[Ohhh Errol]

*, there's talk of some irresistible offers coming our way for pick 1. I'm getting quite nervous at the prospect...especially when I see deals like this one moving around some pretty high circles...





"Package up a few of our hb flankers

be bold, take a risk..we Have plenty of players they would be interest in. Particularly if Horne is a flight risk"

 

[krakouers]

****, there's talk of some irresistible offers coming our way for pick 1. I'm getting quite nervous at the prospect...especially when I see deals like this one moving around some pretty high circles...





"Package up a few of our hb flankers

be bold, take a risk..we Have plenty of players they would be interest in. Particularly if Horne is a flight risk"

who was that from?

 

[shinboner magic]

Rich may have been initially but I don’t think with the benefit of hindsight they stuffed that pick too badly
Was at the time controversial but they still got a good 200+ game player

Hill underachieved for his ability- was to easily shut down and probably injuries didn’t help

 

[rippersnipper]

Rich has been a great club servant and fantastic player for a long time, but Stephen Hill

32

Stephen Hill

Age

33

Ht

183cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.5

5star

K

11.7

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.9

4star

MG

223.5

3star

D

13.5

3star

K

8.8

4star

HB

4.8

3star

M

4.8

4star

T

0.8

1star

MG

223.5

3star

D

11.2

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

5.8

4star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

at his peak was unreal. Far and away a better player than Rich imo. If Freo had won in either 13 or 14 no one would be questioning that draft decision at all. Would have killed to have a player like him at north during that period of time. Genuinely one of my favourite players over the past 15 years.

 

[Sphynx]

Rich has been a great club servant and fantastic player for a long time, but Stephen Hill at his peak was unreal. Far and away a better player than Rich imo. If Freo had won in either 13 or 14 no one would be questioning that draft decision at all. Would have killed to have a player like him at north during that period of time. Genuinely one of my favourite players over the past 15 years.

We had a better a better version in Wells.

Hill was the Kmart version of wells.

 

[Ashley B]

I hear Donald M has already made room for Mr HF on his couch. Big couch by the sound of it.

 

[Only Forwards]

there's talk of some irresistible offers coming our way for pick 1.

Define irresistible.

 

[Ashley B]

If they are irresistible you would need to ask yourself why, because he will be a super player. Not that we should be entertaining it but I assume we will have a look and say no thanks. Grow our own I say add some extra spice when we are nearing the pointy end.

 

[Nutjob]

I don't get the people who say he runs like Ablett sr. I think he runs like a proper sprinter when he goes. Have a look at that run in the SF that set up Nobes with a goal. Once he gets up on his toes he looks like lightning.

I reckon the Ablett comparisons will come for Naughton in a few years when he puts on a bit more size.

Did you watch Ablett early days before he was a permanent forward? Early days he would move up to a wing and he had good gears. There is a highlight in particular that is reminiscent of Ablett snr where HF is running and kicks a goal from 50 mtrs out.


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[Star]

Seriously, if the club don't pick him up there isn't a microwave in the world big enough for our memberships, even if they are digital.

For the love of pizza, pls draft Horne... we are desperate for that type of player... tonight's game shows we need him!!

Microwave. Pizza. Just no...

Also, we do have to wait until Draft night to call out his name...

 

[ferball]

Did you watch Ablett early days before he was a permanent forward? Early days he would move up to a wing and he had good gears. There is a highlight in particular that is reminiscent of Ablett snr where HF is running and kicks a goal from 50 mtrs out.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Ablett was fast, I just don't think their gait is similar that's all. HF runs with his trunk more upright than Ablett Sr.

I've only seen him really turn it on a couple of times tho. He seems to only run as fast as he needs to, so he is nearly always balanced and able to deliver the ball well.

 

[Istanbul Roo]

Rich has been a great club servant and fantastic player for a long time, but Stephen Hill at his peak was unreal. Far and away a better player than Rich imo. If Freo had won in either 13 or 14 no one would be questioning that draft decision at all. Would have killed to have a player like him at north during that period of time. Genuinely one of my favourite players over the past 15 years.

Yep, I agree. Vic folk chronically underrate WA clubs' players. Pavlich for example was an absolute gun for nearly all his career. And Hill at his best was unreal.

 

[Smoocher]

I don't get the people who say he runs like Ablett sr. I think he runs like a proper sprinter when he goes. Have a look at that run in the SF that set up Nobes with a goal. Once he gets up on his toes he looks like lightning.

I reckon the Ablett comparisons will come for Naughton in a few years when he puts on a bit more size.

Same shoulder hunch as a young Ablett when running. Explosive power off the mark.

You need to look at Abletts early years when he was running off a wing balking players and kicking bags of goals.


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[ferball]

Same shoulder hunch as a young Ablett when running. Explosive power off the mark.

You need to look at Abletts early years when he was running off a wing balking players and kicking bags of goals.


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I reckon he specifically doesn't have that but anyway....

 

[Souup]

eDPS PMBangers Souup - love your work and appreciate your insights.

How has lasts nights JHF performance changed your views (as in better)? Particularly around the concept of tiers. Still a group of 4 with Daicos, Darcy, Callaghan?

My novice view is a game like that in a final is as good a game from a draftee as you'll see. Thoughts? How does that performance compare to previous draftees? Given it was a preliminary etc etc?

Cheers

Hey mate - I've personally had Horne in a tier of his own for a while now, no one really got close to him at any stage. I don't rate Daicos or Darcy as highly as everyone else either as you'll see below.

RE: Horne - There was a period a couple of months ago where I was worried about there not being an obvious improvement in his game at SANFL level. The runs he'd put on the board over a 3 year stretch were enough for him to still be above others, but there was a sense in which the chasm between him and others was closing. Safe to say he's well and truly shown improvement in the last 4-5 games and has elevated his game.

Here's a top 30 I threw together in July. I don't have a running power rankings so I'd have to draw up another one to see how things have changed since this one. Main things I'd change is that Gibcus would be to the back end of the 2nd tier/start of 3rd tier. Hugh Jackson would drop into mid-late 20's, Rachele sneaks into the top 10 with Van Rooyen and Josh Ward just outside it, both getting ahead of Sonsie, Amiss and Draper.

Here's my top 30 minus F/S prospects. If you want F/S prospects then Daicos would be at #4 and Darcy at #7

Tier 1
1 - Jason Horne
___________________
Tier 2
2 - Josh Gibcus
3 - Finn Callaghan
4 - Josh Goater
5 - Josh Sinn
6 - Neil Erasmus
___________________
Tier 3
7 - Mac Andrew
8 - Darcy Wilmot
9 - Matthew Johnson
10 - Arlo Draper
11 - Jye Amiss
12 - Tyler Sonsie
13 - Ben Hobbs
14 - Josh Rachele
___________________
Tier 4
15 - Paul Curtis
16 - Jack Williams
17 - Zac Taylor
18 - Hugh Jackson
19 - Ned Long
20 - Josh Ward
21 - Matt Roberts
22 - Jacob Van Rooyen
23 - Toby Conway
___________________
Tier 5
24 - Jai Serong
25 - Campbell Chesser
26 - Josh Browne
27 - Judson Clarke
28 - Lewis Rayson
29 - Oscar Morrison
30 - Rhett Bazzo

Banks, Howes, Butler, Murley, Fahey, Gadsby, MacDonald and Molan are some names who are just outside.

 

[rippersnipper]

Yep, I agree. Vic folk chronically underrate WA clubs' players. Pavlich for example was an absolute gun for nearly all his career. And Hill at his best was unreal.

I watch this goal pretty frequently. He was lovely to watch at his best.

 

[ferball]

I played footy and cricket with Grenville in Leeton after his SANFL career was over.

Could have been as good as Plugger if he could have kept his drinking in check. Sad to see such talent wasted.

Very handy cricketer too. Apparently was a state level wicket keeper as a junior.

I've got a mate round who was telling right now me he was captaining a cricket game against the team Grenville was captaining and the needed a couple of runs with four wickets left and me mate's team got the last four wickets for nothing. LOL. Now he's singing North Adelaide's song. He played there for four or five years in the early 90s.

(Good North man tho. We went to Boomer's 400th game in Brissie...)

 

[Frank Thring]

Ablett was fast, I just don't think their gait is similar that's all. HF runs with his trunk more upright than Ablett Sr.

I've only seen him really turn it on a couple of times tho. He seems to only run as fast as he needs to, so he is nearly always balanced and able to deliver the ball well.

Sorry but their gaits are very similar.

 

[ferball]

Sorry but their gaits are very similar.

You don't have to apologise...