Pick 1

[Trav 20]

Yeah 193cm is not an issue. He's taller than Darling, Lloyd, Lucas and Fev, the same height as N Riewoldt, Neitz, Roughead and Schulz, and two cm shorter than Franklin, J Riewoldt and Gehrig (and Hogan). Doubt anyone would call those blokes undersized.

It seems Lockett and Carey wouldn't make it as key forwards today.

But I have a more pressing question – who are these Goliath full-backs that render 193cm forwards redundant ?

 

[swoop42]

If I was St Kilda I'd be going for McCartin at 1 no matter how good Petracca appears to be.

Good midfielders can be found in the 10 to 30 range year after year while elite key forward prospects tend to go top 5 or under always.

While someone like Deledio is a good footballer I'm sure most tiger fans would still prefer Roughead if they had the choice.

Food for thought.

 

[swoop42]

I doubt I've read a comment from a Saints fan that doesn't consider Petracca a lock. Is there any chance they'll take the tall they'd like and the player 9 months ago they would've probably earmarked - McCartin ? Petracca looks likely to be a generational type star, but McCartin could also be a fabulous 10 year key forward. I'm just wondering why no Saints fan thinks there's even the remotest chance they'll go down the path of taking McCartin. Are there leaks within the Saints, or is the thought of passing up Petracca so ludicrous it renders the prospect null and void ?

As a Dees fan I feel we're in a no lose situation. We either get Petracca and Brayshaw, or McCartin to partner Hogan for 10 years and Brayshaw. I salivate at either prospect.

NB: unlike some others I doubt we'll take Lever.

To bad if you take Wright.

Could still happen.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

If I was St Kilda I'd be going for McCartin at 1 no matter how good Petracca appears to be.

Good midfielders can be found in the 10 to 30 range year after year while elite key forward prospects tend to go top 5 or under always.

While someone like Deledio is a good footballer I'm sure most tiger fans would still prefer Roughead if they had the choice.

Food for thought.

If McCartin or Wright were on Roughead's level many would agree. He isn't. There is a bit of a gap between lets say Boyd and Patton who went 1 and McCartin. St Kilda should pick the best player, that is Petracca.

 

[manny100]

I will be hard to pass up on Petracca. How strong will he be when his body matures!!!! He will monster mids and backs alike!! Can't see the Saints passing. Wallace on Future stars did a study on early picks that make it in the AFL. Turns out the probability is > 80% for young star inside mids. The bonus is that he kicks goals as does Billings. The probabilities drop a fair bit with KPP's.
On third thoughts he is an absolute lock for number one.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Yeah 193cm is not an issue. He's taller than Darling, Lloyd, Lucas and Fev, the same height as N Riewoldt, Neitz, Roughead and Schulz, and two cm shorter than Franklin, J Riewoldt and Gehrig (and Hogan). Doubt anyone would call those blokes undersized.

I would say with about 99% certainty having seen him up close numerous times in the past couple of years (next to others listed around his height) that N Riewoldt is more like 196cm (and plenty of others on our board agree) and I hear similar things about Roughead and I see that Franklin is now listed at 198cm at Sydney. Clubs very rarely update heights after someone's first year at their club, so I wouldn't go too much by what they are listed at. Many of them will have still been growing when they joined their club.

There is also no point anyone talking about how tall Fev, Lloyd, Lucas or Lockett were, either, as they played in a different era. Hell, Darryl Baldoch played CHF at 177cm and you could play ruck at 185cm, but that has no relevance to how footy is played today.

The fact is that in the mid 80's-mid 90's you had many playing FF or CHF who were between 185cm and 191cm (eg. Ablett, Dunstall, Hird, Lockett, Brereton, Modra) and they were playing against others who were a similar height and about the tallest anyone who played midfield was was around 186cm (probably D Jarman), but now, 20 years later, you have them as tall as 194cm playing in the midfield and about the shortest anyone that plays key forward is is about Jack Darling, at 191cm, while you have many who are around 200cm+. So in 20 years it's gone up by about 6cm, with 191cm being the "new 185cm" (the very bare minimum, the rare exception) and 201cm (Tippett, Boyd, Dixon, Peter Wright coming through this year) being the "new 195cm" (Kernahan, Loewe) and backlines are getting taller and taller by the year.

5 or so years ago 193cm was considered the sort of height you'd ideally want to be to play key position, but now it may be more like 195cm (I've heard that those who recruit for clubs don't consider you to be "key position height" at 193cm any more) and in 5 years time, when McCartin is likely starting to really hit his straps, it may be more like 196cm and that would just be pretty much the starting point. By the time McCartin is in the 2nd half of his career, in the 2020's, I fully expect that most who are playing key position in the AFL will be in that 196cm-203cm range, especially if we start to get more and more recruited from places like the USA. By that stage Paddy may, unless he has a bit of a growth spurt, be coming up against those who are taller than him on almost a weekly basis.

The other thing is that the sort of role he plays at the moment is also a role that more belongs in the 1990's. He seems to play FF in a very traditional way, but it's not the 1990's any more, where you can just play FF from the goalsquare and never have to leave the forward 50. It remains to be seen how well he will be able to play when required to run up and down the ground for much of the game and whether he'll have the tank for that. He's going to have to get his body fat levels down a LOT.

There's no doubt at all that we would prefer to draft someone with pick 1 that would play key forward for us and be that "Riewoldt replacement", so if we do in fact select Petracca it either suggests that he is just something out of the box, or that we have some reasonable question marks over Paddy.

 

[SugarCoat]

St. Kilda made a huge mistake not trading Pick 1.
There is a group of 6 players.
Petracca.
Wright.
Brayshaw.
Heeney (Academy)
McCartin
Moore (Father Son)
That at one point have had claims to being the No. 1 player in the draft.
They could have had 2.
Petracca is a good player but he isn't a stand out No. 1 and he doesn't address St. Kilda's biggest weakness.
He is even the most talented player in the draft according to most AFL recruitiers.

 

[Hellgood]

St. Kilda made a huge mistake not trading Pick 1.
There is a group of 6 players.
Petracca.
Wright.
Brayshaw.
Heeney (Academy)
McCartin
Moore (Father Son)
That at one point have had claims to being the No. 1 player in the draft.
They could have had 2.
Petracca is a good player but he isn't a stand out No. 1 and he doesn't address St. Kilda's biggest weakness.
He is even the most talented player in the draft according to most AFL recruitiers.

You do realise it was pick 6 and 7 which were the only picks they were a chance of getting for one? Which funnily enough is outside the six you sepcified which includes Heeney and Moore who are essentially irrelevant in this discussion. BTW nice work in being able to sneak in another Darcy Moore mention

 

[Big_Birdy]

Sorry if this has been mentioned at length before but Im curious as to whether any recruiters have voiced concern that Petracca is being overrated due to his age?

He turns 19 on Jan 4th while some other players (e.g. Duggan) dont turn 18 until December.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Sorry if this has been mentioned at length before but Im curious as to whether any recruiters have voiced concern that Petracca is being overrated due to his age?

He turns 19 on Jan 4th while some other players (e.g. Duggan) dont turn 18 until December.

Apparently a big % of everyone who gets drafted is born in the first 4 months of the year, so if you are concerned about that with him you'd also be concerned about Brayshaw, Weller, Moore, Smith and others.

Then there's the fact that if he had been born a week earlier he likely would have been drafted high last year, especially coming off a super-dominant, 5 goal 5, nine contested mark, 200+ champion data point preliminary final of the TAC Cup that year and a 41 goal season (despite playing 2nd or 3rd fiddle to Boyd and/or Apeness for chunks of it). He could have easily been drafted relatively highly just off all that and the only thing that would have prevented him being drafted even higher would have been the doubts on what role he would be suited to at AFL level and whether he'd be able to trim down and get fit enough (neither of which exist now).

Had he been on an AFL list this year and trimmed down and gotten fitter over the preseason, like he did on his own anyway last preseason, I expect he would have made a significant impact in the AFL this year and none of this age thing would be a concern, as everyone would then be talking about him being a "late year birthday" and how much upside he would have as a result. He probably would have been more physically ready for senior AFL footy this year than say a Jack Billings was and Jack was more than handy for us this year.

One of the reasons I and others believe Petracca has a lot of upside is that he was so heavily focused on basketball until just a couple of years ago. In the article on him on the AFL website today (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-10-...acca-said-yes-to-footy-and-no-to-an-nba-dream) he speaks about one area where he has a lot of room for improvement and that is fitness/endurance: "But he knows he must improve, and running is a focus. "Basketball requires a different type of running, more short sprints, and I felt in my (football) pre-season last year I wasn't as good as the other boys at it," Petracca says. "I need to do it."

So if he was as dominant in the midfield this year as he was (in possibly his first season playing there), imagine how much more he could become there once he's got more experience and coaching in that role and has more of a football/midfield-appropriate tank/fitness level and has turned more of his extensive bulk into ripped muscle!

He is a dominant force and his traits (rare mix of power, speed, agility, leap, goalkicking, ball-winning, marking, tackling, etc) are very highly desirable at AFL level and that is why he is looking like going at no.1 in his draft.

 

[bergholt]

Lots of bad things about your post but let me address one of them.

Petracca is a good player but he isn't a stand out No. 1 and he doesn't address St. Kilda's biggest weakness.

Every AFL team needs a strong midfield. We don't have anything like that coming through. So pretty obviously our biggest weakness is midfield. Happy to pick up a forward - maybe Moore - with a massive contract in four years or so once our midfield is humming. Until then it's mids, mids and more mids.

 

[Trav 20]

I would say with about 99% certainty having seen him up close numerous times in the past couple of years (next to others listed around his height) that N Riewoldt is more like 196cm (and plenty of others on our board agree) and I hear similar things about Roughead and I see that Franklin is now listed at 198cm at Sydney. Clubs very rarely update heights after someone's first year at their club, so I wouldn't go too much by what they are listed at. Many of them will have still been growing when they joined their club.

There is also no point anyone talking about how tall Fev, Lloyd, Lucas or Lockett were, either, as they played in a different era. Hell, Darryl Baldoch played CHF at 177cm and you could play ruck at 185cm, but that has no relevance to how footy is played today.

The fact is that in the mid 80's-mid 90's you had many playing FF or CHF who were between 185cm and 191cm (eg. Ablett, Dunstall, Hird, Lockett, Brereton, Modra) and they were playing against others who were a similar height and about the tallest anyone who played midfield was was around 186cm (probably D Jarman), but now, 20 years later, you have them as tall as 194cm playing in the midfield and about the shortest anyone that plays key forward is is about Jack Darling, at 191cm, while you have many who are around 200cm+. So in 20 years it's gone up by about 6cm, with 191cm being the "new 185cm" (the very bare minimum, the rare exception) and 201cm (Tippett, Boyd, Dixon, Peter Wright coming through this year) being the "new 195cm" (Kernahan, Loewe) and backlines are getting taller and taller by the year.

5 or so years ago 193cm was considered the sort of height you'd ideally want to be to play key position, but now it may be more like 195cm (I've heard that those who recruit for clubs don't consider you to be "key position height" at 193cm any more) and in 5 years time, when McCartin is likely starting to really hit his straps, it may be more like 196cm and that would just be pretty much the starting point. By the time McCartin is in the 2nd half of his career, in the 2020's, I fully expect that most who are playing key position in the AFL will be in that 196cm-203cm range, especially if we start to get more and more recruited from places like the USA. By that stage Paddy may, unless he has a bit of a growth spurt, be coming up against those who are taller than him on almost a weekly basis.

The other thing is that the sort of role he plays at the moment is also a role that more belongs in the 1990's. He seems to play FF in a very traditional way, but it's not the 1990's any more, where you can just play FF from the goalsquare and never have to leave the forward 50. It remains to be seen how well he will be able to play when required to run up and down the ground for much of the game and whether he'll have the tank for that. He's going to have to get his body fat levels down a LOT.

There's no doubt at all that we would prefer to draft someone with pick 1 that would play key forward for us and be that "Riewoldt replacement", so if we do in fact select Petracca it either suggests that he is just something out of the box, or that we have some reasonable question marks over Paddy.

There are players like Jack Watts, who's 196 cm and plays like a small, and there are shorter players, who are adept at playing tall. 193 cm is plenty tall enough to play as a key forward, now and the next 10 years, if you're good enough. If you're not good enough it won't matter how tall you are.

Perhaps you can name for me these back-line Goliaths that render 193 cm forwards obsolete ? Also, if a key forward at 193 cm has bulk and speed on a lead they will be a handful for any defender. McCartin has bulk, smarts, aggression and speed. All attributes that will hold him in good stead. Even as a supposed midget.

 

[The GOAT]

St. Kilda made a huge mistake not trading Pick 1.
There is a group of 6 players.
Petracca.
Wright.
Brayshaw.
Heeney (Academy)
McCartin
Moore (Father Son)
That at one point have had claims to being the No. 1 player in the draft.
They could have had 2.
Petracca is a good player but he isn't a stand out No. 1 and he doesn't address St. Kilda's biggest weakness.
He is even the most talented player in the draft according to most AFL recruitiers.

How on earth were they getting two? Only four of those players are available to be picked in the draft. No-one was offering them 2 picks inside the top 4.

 

[master bate]

There are players like Jack Watts, who's 196 cm and plays like a small, and there are shorter players, who are adept at playing tall. 193 cm is plenty tall enough to play as a key forward, now and the next 10 years, if you're good enough. If you're not good enough it won't matter how tall you are.

Perhaps you can name for me these back-line Goliaths that render 193 cm forwards obsolete ? Also, if a key forward at 193 cm has bulk and speed on a lead they will be a handful for any defender. McCartin has bulk, smarts, aggression and speed. All attributes that will hold him in good stead. Even as a supposed midget.

Name the 'key' forwards shorter than 193cm in the competition?
Gunston, Darling. Also note that Roughead and Josh Kennedy play in the same team as these two guys. That's not a coincidence.

Name the key forwards at or taller than that: Every other one. Besides maybe Pav, who played half his career in the middle and is probably underrated in terms of natural footballing ability.

Jake Stringer from the dogs - 192cm, excellent bulk, smarts, aggression, yet the dogs just paid a fortune for Boyd. 15-20 years ago Stringer would've been the key forward they built their forward line around. Heck him and Bontempelli would've been Lloyd and Lucas and the dogs would be looking out for 175-180cm mids to get the ball to them.

Best key defenders in the league:
Eric McKenzie (196), Daniel Talia (196), Alex Rance (194), Cale Hooker (196), Brian Lake (195), even though he's a forward now Jake Carlisle (198), Tom Lonergan (197). Teddy Richards is a lean 193cm but is made to look small by Roughead. Gibson is a great player at 189cm but Hawthorn got Lake and just recruited Frawley (even if that is a bit succession planning).

But you are missing AussieRules point. He's not saying he'll be a bad player. He probably agree he's be a handfull on the lead and a very very good player. Just his height and game make him Gunston not Roughy. And as good as Gunston is are you taking him over Luke Hodge? Are you building your forward line around him?

Maybe McCartin is a little taller than that and bulkier. So take Jack Riewoldt. Undeniable gun player. But are you building your forward line around him and taking him at pick 1 when there's a gun midfielder? Great way to have a dangerous key forward who will kick goals, but there's a reason people always talk about Richmond finding another big forward and putting Jack in the goal square.

 

[master bate]

How on earth were they getting two? Only four of those players are available to be picked in the draft. No-one was offering them 2 picks inside the top 4.

I think his point was they would get 1 of the top 4 and so if they are all equal there's no loss. Then they would get a free pick 7.

Now no matter who you rate or not I'd say there's no way in 10 years time that the top 4 all turn out to be equally special. And there's more chance pick 1 turns out to be the special player than pick 4. At the same time 4 and 7 historically does represent more value than pick 1 I'd say but you can only go on who your recruiters rate and at this stage it sounds like Petracca.

Of course all of that is based on GWS offering 4 and 7 for 1 when they might have only offered 6 and 7.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

I reckon Gary Ablett would still get a gig in the modern game at full forward and go alright.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Indeed, as someone said earlier, if you're good enough, you're tall enough, so I guess that is what remains to be seen. If heights weren't any issue whatsoever though then Tim Membrey would have been drafted top 3 or 5 a couple of years ago, as he was basically a 188cm version of Paddy- kicking big bags of goals and dominating at FF- yet he slipped all the way to pick 47, because he was considered too short to play FF at AFL level, so it does come into it at some point. It will also depend on which way the game goes and whether he has to run up and back all game long, which I don't think is his bag. Will also need to significantly increase his confidence levels when shooting for goal, if the widespread reports of him being very lacking in confidence in that area are correct.

It's probably not going to help him that there are so many playing key forward these days who are 198cm and above though, because I imagine most clubs will be on the lookout for taller options for FB and CHB, to be able to handle them. I know we for instance are scouring New Zealand for young (around 17yo) strong, powerful and super-athletic tall types to potentially develop to play down back and as I said earlier, I expect clubs will look more and more into America for similar types. And if whoever is playing key defence for the various AFL clubs can handle the likes of 198cm Jake Carlisle, 199cm Tom Lynch, 201cm Tom Boyd, 202cm Kurt Tipett and maybe 203cm Peter Wright, I would think they'd be pretty confident of handling someone who was just 193cm (if that's where he stays) and similarly attributed. If they're not able to handle McCartin, how the hell are they going to handle Boyd!?

Not suggesting that he isn't worth drafting or anything like that (I'd probably still take him with pick 2, if Petracca was gone), but the days of playing key positions at 193cm are well and truly numbered, so if I did draft him I'd be hoping he had a bit of a growth spurt after he arrived at my club, just to make things that bit easier for him going forward. Especially in the latter half of his career, when there are likely to be more and more playing key defence at 197cm+.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Height measurements would be more useful if everyone was able to jump and mark the ball at the same height. Chris Dawes plays about as tall as your average rover for example. Plus there's the whole thing about nobody actually marking the ball with their heads. I'm sure at some point standing reach will be the important measurement like it is for the people paying attention in the NBA. For example:
Tyler Zeller 214cm tall 266cm standing reach
Al Jefferson 208cm tall 280cm standing reach

 

[louismaxwell]

Height measurements would be more useful if everyone was able to jump and mark the ball at the same height. Chris Dawes plays about as tall as your average rover for example. Plus there's the whole thing about nobody actually marking the ball with their heads. I'm sure at some point standing reach will be the important measurement like it is for the people paying attention in the NBA. For example:
Tyler Zeller 214cm tall 266cm standing reach
Al Jefferson 208cm tall 280cm standing reach

Here is an example of a poster who has never played football.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Here is an example of a poster who has never played football.

 

[aussierulesrules]

They do measure reach at the combine these days, as well as hand span and so-on.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

They do measure reach at the combine these days, as well as hand span and so-on.

Cool, got a link?

 

[Trav 20]

Name the 'key' forwards shorter than 193cm in the competition?
Gunston, Darling. Also note that Roughead and Josh Kennedy play in the same team as these two guys. That's not a coincidence.

Name the key forwards at or taller than that: Every other one. Besides maybe Pav, who played half his career in the middle and is probably underrated in terms of natural footballing ability.

Jake Stringer from the dogs - 192cm, excellent bulk, smarts, aggression, yet the dogs just paid a fortune for Boyd. 15-20 years ago Stringer would've been the key forward they built their forward line around. Heck him and Bontempelli would've been Lloyd and Lucas and the dogs would be looking out for 175-180cm mids to get the ball to them.

Best key defenders in the league:
Eric McKenzie (196), Daniel Talia (196), Alex Rance (194), Cale Hooker (196), Brian Lake (195), even though he's a forward now Jake Carlisle (198), Tom Lonergan (197). Teddy Richards is a lean 193cm but is made to look small by Roughead. Gibson is a great player at 189cm but Hawthorn got Lake and just recruited Frawley (even if that is a bit succession planning).

But you are missing AussieRules point. He's not saying he'll be a bad player. He probably agree he's be a handfull on the lead and a very very good player. Just his height and game make him Gunston not Roughy. And as good as Gunston is are you taking him over Luke Hodge? Are you building your forward line around him?

Maybe McCartin is a little taller than that and bulkier. So take Jack Riewoldt. Undeniable gun player. But are you building your forward line around him and taking him at pick 1 when there's a gun midfielder? Great way to have a dangerous key forward who will kick goals, but there's a reason people always talk about Richmond finding another big forward and putting Jack in the goal square.

FFS, he plays nothing like Gunston. Look at him play. Or Jack Riewoldt. He can play up the ground, but he also loves physical contact and throws his weight around. Yes, it will take a while at senior level to have a presence, but his attributes scream AFL key forward.

Read Callum Twomey's sinopsis:

"McCartin is the best key forward in the draft. He's a pack-splitting contested marker who runs through anyone in the way. Big, strong and physical, he amasses plenty of shots at goal and has good speed off the mark. Right in the frame as the first pick."

It's hard to name any good key forwards today, let alone ones less than 193, but my point was more aimed at year's gone by, i.e. Lloyd at 192 cm etc.

None of the fullbacks you mention are Goliaths. None rag doll forwards. And if you think 1-3 cm renders a smart, quick on the lead, aggressive and bulky key forward impotent then you're daft.

With the way McCartin plays, if he's good enough, he's well and truly tall enough.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

You can bat for whomever you like, but 193cm isn't undersized if you know how to play as a key forward.

Well said.

 

[Tommy Wigs]

St. Kilda made a huge mistake not trading Pick 1.
There is a group of 6 players.
Petracca.
Wright.
Brayshaw.
Heeney (Academy)
McCartin
Moore (Father Son)
That at one point have had claims to being the No. 1 player in the draft.
They could have had 2.
Petracca is a good player but he isn't a stand out No. 1 and he doesn't address St. Kilda's biggest weakness.
He is even the most talented player in the draft according to most AFL recruitiers.

Wow, what a spud. So which of those will be taken at 7?