Pick 1

[Prudster]

If you want to build a team that contends for finals, 2 good players would suffice.
If you want to build a genuine Premiership contender, you need elite level match winners. The opportunity to get the best 18 y/o in the country is doesn't come around that often. That's why you keep Pick 1.

But pick 1 doesn't guarantee an elite player, and lower picks don't stop you from getting elite talent. Just from Hawthorn, guys like Franklin (5), Lewis (7), Birchall (14), Rioli (12) are the kind of elite core players that Saint Kilda could pick up if they trade pick 1. I don't know enough about the talent in this draft, but from i've read, it's not like Petracca is head and shoulders above the rest, and a sure thing to be an elite player.

Saint Kilda could potentially pick up 2 or 3 elite players if they get 4/6/7. Add that to the other early picks they will use while rebuilding, and they will have a great core to go forward with. By keeping pick 1, they likely get Petracca, and still have a huge hole to fill in the KPP department, which this draft is particularly strong in. They have some young, potentially elite, midfield talent on their list, but i don't think they have much in terms of pure KPP's who could be elite.

 

[cdcanman]

But pick 1 doesn't guarantee an elite player, and lower picks don't stop you from getting elite talent. Just from Hawthorn, guys like Franklin (5), Lewis (7), Birchall (14), Rioli (12) are the kind of elite core players that Saint Kilda could pick up if they trade pick 1. I don't know enough about the talent in this draft, but from i've read, it's not like Petracca is head and shoulders above the rest, and a sure thing to be an elite player.

Saint Kilda could potentially pick up 2 or 3 elite players if they get 4/6/7. Add that to the other early picks they will use while rebuilding, and they will have a great core to go forward with. By keeping pick 1, they likely get Petracca, and still have a huge hole to fill in the KPP department, which this draft is particularly strong in. They have some young, potentially elite, midfield talent on their list, but i don't think they have much in terms of pure KPP's who could be elite.

I understand everything that you are saying, and you certainly aren't wrong with any of it. But if you were to get a maths wiz to do an analysis of all sports with drafts, the probability of finding an elite player would increase the higher draft pick you possess. It's not a guarantee, but your chances increase. St Kilda need the next gen of match winners. Most astute judges are suggesting Petracca is the man most likely, and that there is a fair gap between the top 4 talents in the draft, and the rest. I don't know anything about them, but that's what I'm reading. If I'm St Kilda, I'm backing my scouts to get it right, so I'm holding Pick 1. They may agree with you and rather 3 picks. The inexact science of drafting. Different philosophies make it interesting. I love this time of year.

 

[94_Eagles]

1 hour people!

Edit: whoops, didn't realise daylight savings was in.

 

[Richo83]

I understand everything that you are saying, and you certainly aren't wrong with any of it. But if you were to get a maths wiz to do an analysis of all sports with drafts, the probability of finding an elite player would increase the higher draft pick you possess. It's not a guarantee, but your chances increase. St Kilda need the next gen of match winners. Most astute judges are suggesting Petracca is the man most likely, and that there is a fair gap between the top 4 talents in the draft, and the rest. I don't know anything about them, but that's what I'm reading. If I'm St Kilda, I'm backing my scouts to get it right, so I'm holding Pick 1. They may agree with you and rather 3 picks. The inexact science of drafting. Different philosophies make it interesting. I love this time of year.

That's debatable. And the guy who everyone thinks is the best player in the draft often turns out to not be. Deledio was said to be the clear number one pick in 2004, is he now?

 

[dlanod]

No deal!

 

[Prudster]

I understand everything that you are saying, and you certainly aren't wrong with any of it. But if you were to get a maths wiz to do an analysis of all sports with drafts, the probability of finding an elite player would increase the higher draft pick you possess. It's not a guarantee, but your chances increase. St Kilda need the next gen of match winners. Most astute judges are suggesting Petracca is the man most likely, and that there is a fair gap between the top 4 talents in the draft, and the rest. I don't know anything about them, but that's what I'm reading. If I'm St Kilda, I'm backing my scouts to get it right, so I'm holding Pick 1. They may agree with you and rather 3 picks. The inexact science of drafting. Different philosophies make it interesting. I love this time of year.

I guess it's irrelevant now, but i doubt pick 1 has a greater chance than 4/6/7 combined of picking up the best player in the draft, or picking up at least one elite talent, and 4/6/7 also gives you the opportunity to pick up multiple elite talents.

 

[Murraj1966]

Still happy with Petracca

 

[cdcanman]

I guess it's irrelevant now, but i doubt pick 1 has a greater chance than 4/6/7 combined of picking up the best player in the draft, or picking up at least one elite talent, and 4/6/7 also gives you the opportunity to pick up multiple elite talents.

I get what you are saying, and there would probably be some clubs that would make a deal like that if it was offered, but I bet there would be others that wouldn't. I support the latter.

 

[aussierulesrules]

It's pretty clear that we rate the top couple considerably higher than those likely to be taken from 4 onwards, hence no deal. It doesn't matter what has happened in past years, we had to make a judgement call on who was likely to be available at the various picks this year and how we rated them and whether we felt what we were offered was better value than keeping pick 1. I take it we didn't.

With Boyd (who we were planning on having a very big go at next year) now off the market and Stanley traded, I think Patty McCartin now comes right into the frame for pick 1 again.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

hmmmm so about that trading frenzy!!!

 

[94_Eagles]

hmmmm so about that trading frenzy!!!

29 players moving clubs too pedestrian for you?

 

[The Falcon Strike]

29 players moving clubs too pedestrian for you?

trading frenzy for pick 1....

Not a single offer today for it

 

[94_Eagles]

trading frenzy for pick 1....

Not a single offer today for it

That you were privvy to.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

That you were privvy to.

I'm taking the st kilda recruitment staff at their word

Ameet Bains @stkildafc says no new offers today for pick 1, so they'll keep it
#NABTradeRadio

 

[Purple Suit]

You'd take Swallow over Caddy and Gaff?

I think he's a better player than both of them but it probably evens up if you look at the combined value of 1 vs 2 players.

 

[94_Eagles]

I'm taking the st kilda recruitment staff at their word

Ameet Bains @stkildafc says no new offers today for pick 1, so they'll keep it
#NABTradeRadio

ok

 

[aussierulesrules]

hmmmm so about that trading frenzy!!!

It's called playing the game. Just like when Vozzo said you guys wouldn't even discuss trading Mitch Brown a couple of years ago (when we were after him), only to then agree to a deal a few days later (involving Hooker and Cripps going to WC, Brown to us and picks 24 and 25 going to Essendon), but then after it fell through at the last minute tell everyone that Brown was never on the table!

 

[Mateyman]

Would do 1 for 4+7 in a heartbeat as St Kilda. Especially with a "clear top 4". Amazed at the overrating of pick 1.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

It's called playing the game. Just like when Vozzo said you guys wouldn't even discuss trading Mitch Brown a couple of years ago (when we were after him), only to then agree to a deal a few days later (involving Hooker and Cripps going to WC, Brown to us and picks 24 and 25 going to Essendon), but then after it fell through at the last minute tell everyone that Brown was never on the table!

Vozzo seems to be an imbecile though...

 

[aussierulesrules]

Would do 1 for 4+7 in a heartbeat as St Kilda. Especially with a "clear top 4". Amazed at the overrating of pick 1.

I think it's very safe to say that we think there is a substantial drop-off after the first 2 or 3, especially after Wright's very poor end to the season. He's apparently on the nose in a pretty big way, otherwise I dare say we would have gladly done a deal.

After those first 3, none of the rest that are available (ie. the rest, minus Heeney and Moore) really "demanded" to be taken really high this year. They were either patchy at best with their form, have far from complete games, or big injury queries, etc. I doubt very much that there will be a Wines or Aish slide to 7 this year like there have been the last two years, for instance.

Will probably come down to who Melbourne take at 2 and 3 though. If they go and grab a Wright or Lever at 3 and one of McCartin or Petracca end up still available at 4 then we might really regret it. If Petracca, McCartin and Brayshaw are all gone by pick 4 though I expect we'll be comfortable with our choice.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

The Giants only & final offer was 4 & 7 for 1 & 21. We were trying to squeeze 6 as well but obviously it didn't come & obviously we didn't take their final offer.

 

[DAWESOME!!]

Would have done 4+7 in the end given no better offers came along , but I'm sure they won't mind keeping pick 1.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Would have done 4+7 in the end given no better offers came along , but I'm sure they won't mind keeping pick 1.

That wasn't the offer. It was 4 & 7 for 1 & 21.

 

[DAWESOME!!]

That wasn't the offer. It was 4 & 7 for 1 & 21.

Was it? I thought I'd heard 1 for 4+7. Would still have done 1+21 for 4+7 probably.

 

[dewah07]

Was it? I thought I'd heard 1 for 4+7. Would still have done 1+21 for 4+7 probably.

Our super insider on our board said that GWS yesterday offered 4,7 for 1,21. He said saints wanted 6 in it, and that GWS didn't approach us today over a new deal.