Welcome Pick 16 (2016) - Todd Marshall

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Forzaport

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May 27, 2004
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23-1-6 is just absolutely disgusting.

79.3% winrate - if he keeps that rate up for 50 games it would be the highest winrate of any player who has played after 1985 (ie AFL era).

The only modern era guys who come close are Mark Blake who played at the Cats during a five year period of two flags and one grand final loss, and Nathan Broad who plays at the Tiges during a 4 year period of two flags and one prelim.

I almost want us to win the flag this year, the minor prem next year, then have him retire just for the record.
Yeah, at this point anyone calling for Marshall to be dropped needs to be slapped really hard.

Marshall does so much on the ground and is so important to our structure that so long as his work-rate is there, he's an automatic inclusion into the team.
 

Schulzenfest

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23-1-6 is just absolutely disgusting.

79.3% winrate - if he keeps that rate up for 50 games it would be the highest winrate of any player who has played after 1985 (ie AFL era).

The only modern era guys who come close are Mark Blake who played at the Cats during a five year period of two flags and one grand final loss, and Nathan Broad who plays at the Tiges during a 4 year period of two flags and one prelim.

I almost want us to win the flag this year, the minor prem next year, then have him retire just for the record.
Marshall's record is more impressive than those guys IMO. They just happened to land at good clubs. Their clubs had similar winning percentages with or without Blake and Broad in the side. But without Marshall, our win rate drops down to something like 50/50.
 

edgie

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Ever since "that day" against GC I've trusted the Hoff more on the run than from a set shot.

If we were thinking tall for tall probably Ladhams for now.
4 Straight in the final game of 2011 at Adelaide Oval, which honestly was a more important game to win for us, as bad as the stain of losing first to Gold Coast is.
 

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AFC AFeederClub

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lol carn

says he goes by results, ignores actual results, and calls Marshall lazy with no evidence (he was getting up and down the ground as good as anyone pre-injury wasn’t he)

Marshall’s a young second forward in a team that crowds its forward half and is notoriously dixon-centric.

since you’re so ‘results’ based I would love a list of second key forwards clearly having a better year than our 21yr old kid... remember there’s 17 other teams. Good luck.
larkey, mckay, hipwood, noughton
 

Powerage

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Hes still only 21. I think he's overall had a very good year even if his last few games have been underwhelming statistically (but have also conincided with big Dixon games).

Marshall's season stats are down or exactly the same in the following areas
  1. Disposals
  2. Disposal Efficiency
  3. Goals
  4. Contested Possessions
  5. Metres Gained
  6. Goal Assists
  7. Score Involvements
  8. Goal Accuracy
  9. Marks insode 50
  10. Tackles
  11. Pressure Acts
  12. Contested marks (=)
They are up in clangers and turnovers

The only positive stats which are up are
  1. Total Marks 3.2 vs 3.1
  2. Spoils 1.8 vs 1.2
  3. Tackles 2.7 vs 2.4
I assume he is just as effective as being a decoy this year as any other. He is not drawing more defenders to him based on those stats.

Someone please explain to me how this is a very good year, a good year, a better year, or even a season that is the natural evolvement of a KPF? It is arguably, a step backward, or kindly, another bog average Marshall year.
 

dirty2

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Marshall's season stats are down or exactly the same in the following areas
  1. Disposals
  2. Disposal Efficiency
  3. Goals
  4. Contested Possessions
  5. Metres Gained
  6. Goal Assists
  7. Score Involvements
  8. Goal Accuracy
  9. Marks insode 50
  10. Tackles
  11. Pressure Acts
  12. Contested marks (=)
They are up in clangers and turnovers

The only positive stats which are up are
  1. Total Marks 3.2 vs 3.1
  2. Spoils 1.8 vs 1.2
  3. Tackles 2.7 vs 2.4
I assume he is just as effective as being a decoy this year as any other. He is not drawing more defenders to him based on those stats.

Someone please explain to me how this is a very good year, a good year, a better year, or even a season that is the natural evolvement of a KPF? It is arguably, a step backward, or kindly, another bog average Marshall year.
Shorter quarters?
 

Harlott

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One thing I reckon I’ve noticed about Marshall is he’s got a real core strength to him especially when he goes for a mark. I think it’s only a matter of time before he starts clunking a few. We’ve seen what he’s capable of this year in general field play and his IQ. I’m sure the coaches and he himself want more involvement in games but he’s too good to be in and out of the side. He’s 21 and I think if he manages to string a few good games together without injury then it could be the corner we’re wanting him to turn.
 

philthy05

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larkey, mckay, hipwood, noughton
I wouldn’t say naughton is a clear 2nd key forward nor would I say hipwood is a clear 2nd key forward.

marshall has far outperformed larkey this season. Mackay has had a good year, I like him. I don’t think he’s been better than Marshall though I could see others disagreeing but it’s certainly not clear cut.
 

El_Scorcho

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FFS can you people go 5 seconds without campaigning to drop a developing tall?

The reason we don't have a reliable 2nd KPF option for this premiership tilt is because we've flatly refused to back a developing KPF in for the last 20 years.

We're also a casual 23-7 when Marshall plays and he's an undeniably skilled and intelligent footballer. Let him build some form and chemistry FFS. He's 2 games back from a 6 week injury.
 

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Powerage

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Shorter quarters?
Its difficult to adjust for that without knowing where the ball spends most of its time on average for the past few seasons.

Lets just say I adjust all stats this year upwards. Its still an average year statistically. He has only made real ground in non contested marks outside of fifty, tackles and spoils. And clangers and turnovers.

I'm not suggesting we drop him. He is young and has the attributes we need. I would see how he goes early on next season and if there is still no improvement try playing him defensively or letting him run around while resting forward or back Westhoff style.
 

El_Scorcho

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Marshall's season stats are down or exactly the same in the following areas
  1. Disposals
  2. Disposal Efficiency
  3. Goals
  4. Contested Possessions
  5. Metres Gained
  6. Goal Assists
  7. Score Involvements
  8. Goal Accuracy
  9. Marks insode 50
  10. Tackles
  11. Pressure Acts
  12. Contested marks (=)
They are up in clangers and turnovers

The only positive stats which are up are
  1. Total Marks 3.2 vs 3.1
  2. Spoils 1.8 vs 1.2
  3. Tackles 2.7 vs 2.4
I assume he is just as effective as being a decoy this year as any other. He is not drawing more defenders to him based on those stats.

Someone please explain to me how this is a very good year, a good year, a better year, or even a season that is the natural evolvement of a KPF? It is arguably, a step backward, or kindly, another bog average Marshall year.
Quarters are shorter.

"Another bog average Marshall year" I'm sorry are we talking about a different Todd Marshall who is a 28 year old journeyman and not a 21 year old who has had injury and family tragedy issues in this and his previous seasons but has otherwise showed plenty?

When Marshall got injured in round 8, Dixon was leading the Coleman and the consensus All Australian full forward. It's not just about Marshall's numbers. We've finally got some attacking rhythm this year after years of a disastrous forward setup.
 

El_Scorcho

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Its difficult to adjust for that without knowing where the ball spends most of its time on average for the past few seasons.
If you can't adjust for shorter quarters because it's hard to compare, then why are you trying to sink him based on previous season's stats?

Give him 50 games. Surely we can give a developing KPF 50 games for once when they've showed Marshall's potential.
 

El_Scorcho

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Someone please explain to me how this is a very good year, a good year, a better year, or even a season that is the natural evolvement of a KPF? It is arguably, a step backward, or kindly, another bog average Marshall year.
Marshall had played 20 games before this season. How many gun key forwards apart from Jeremy Cameron were significantly better than Marshall between games 20 and 30?
 

Powerage

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FFS can you people go 5 seconds without campaigning to drop a developing tall?

The reason we don't have a reliable 2nd KPF option for this premiership tilt is because we've flatly refused to back a developing KPF in for the last 20 years.

We're also a casual 23-7 when Marshall plays and he's an undeniably skilled and intelligent footballer. Let him build some form and chemistry FFS. He's 2 games back from a 6 week injury.
I haven't once suggested we drop him.


This year when we have won with Marshall the opposition has been ranked 12th. When we have lost with Marshall or he hasn't played the opposition has been ranked 7th. Its like the golden ratio for Marshall. Over his career our wins with Marshall have been against teams 13th on the ladder on average. When we lose we are playing teams on average 8th.Do you think that has anything to do with Marshall's win-loss record

Quarters are shorter.

"Another bog average Marshall year" I'm sorry are we talking about a different Todd Marshall who is a 28 year old journeyman and not a 21 year old who has had injury and family tragedy issues in this and his previous seasons but has otherwise showed plenty?

When Marshall got injured in round 8, Dixon was leading the Coleman and the consensus All Australian full forward. It's not just about Marshall's numbers. We've finally got some attacking rhythm this year after years of a disastrous forward setup.
I addressed the quarters. Even taking them into account, it is a bog average season for Marshall. Not bog because he is a 28 year old journeyman but bog because contrary to popular belief his stats this year have barely moved taking shorter quarters into account. I'll say almost exactly average if you prefer.

I'm not trying to sink him, I'm addressing those who are suggesting he can fly, especially this season. The truth is somewhere in the middle.

"Marshall has an amazing win loss record". Yes and a good part of that may well be that when he is in the team we are playing someone on average 5 spots down the ladder.
"Dixon is brilliant this year because Marshall has had a better year". Marshall is lucky if he has had a marginally better year, and Dixon just had his first full preseason AND did specialised training with Boak in America.

I'm not disputing much else. Yes he is a good decoy for Dixon. We have a better forward structure with two full time KPF's. I'd like to see Mitch playing as well so we have three KPF's or let Marshall play in defence not this season but possibly next season and especially if he doesn't start to evolve as a KPF. Whilst I fully acknowledge the horrific issues Marshall has had to deal with in his young life, if we could fuse his attributes with Mitch's attitude he would be more than just a decoy for Dixon.
 

TeeKray

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FFS can you people go 5 seconds without campaigning to drop a developing tall?

The reason we don't have a reliable 2nd KPF option for this premiership tilt is because we've flatly refused to back a developing KPF in for the last 20 years.

We're also a casual 23-7 when Marshall plays and he's an undeniably skilled and intelligent footballer. Let him build some form and chemistry FFS. He's 2 games back from a 6 week injury.
I think it's a little different this year. We've got Dixon on fire and Ladhams set to come back to play that second ruck/third tall role. This puts Marshall in direct competition with Georgiades, who is also a talented first round draft choice and has shown just as much as Marshall this year.

We're top of the ladder, it's not as simple as backing a guy in for development at this stage. If Georgiades or even Westhoff are seen as in better form or just better for whatever reason, we're absolutely obligated to pick them ahead of Marshall.
 

El_Scorcho

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I haven't once suggested we drop him.


This year when we have won with Marshall the opposition has been ranked 12th. When we have lost with Marshall or he hasn't played the opposition has been ranked 7th. Its like the golden ratio for Marshall. Over his career our wins with Marshall have been against teams 13th on the ladder on average. When we lose we are playing teams on average 8th.Do you think that has anything to do with Marshall's win-loss record
Teams are more likely to lose when playing opponents higher on the ladder. That isn't a revelation. You could do this for basically every player in the league. It doesn't make Marshall's 23-7 record any less impressive, sorry. Not when he's played for a team that has been about a 55/45 proposition for his entire career.

Over the last 3 seasons (Marshall's entire career), there has been either 1 or 2 wins between 7th and 12th at the end of the season.

I addressed the quarters. Even taking them into account, it is a bog average season for Marshall. Not bog because he is a 28 year old journeyman but bog because contrary to popular belief his stats this year have barely moved taking shorter quarters into account. I'll say almost exactly average if you prefer.

I'm not trying to sink him, I'm addressing those who are suggesting he can fly, especially this season. The truth is somewhere in the middle.

"Marshall has an amazing win loss record". Yes and a good part of that may well be that when he is in the team we are playing someone on average 5 spots down the ladder.
"Dixon is brilliant this year because Marshall has had a better year". Marshall is lucky if he has had a marginally better year, and Dixon just had his first full preseason AND did specialised training with Boak in America.

I'm not disputing much else. Yes he is a good decoy for Dixon. We have a better forward structure with two full time KPF's. I'd like to see Mitch playing as well so we have three KPF's or let Marshall play in defence not this season but possibly next season and especially if he doesn't start to evolve as a KPF. Whilst I fully acknowledge the horrific issues Marshall has had to deal with in his young life, if we could fuse his attributes with Mitch's attitude he would be more than just a decoy for Dixon.
Again, Marshall started this season as a 20 game KPF. He's now at 30 games. I'm not sure what you think 20-30 game KPFs are usually doing, but Jeremy Cameron aside, this is about it, even the ones who are now stars of the competition.

The alternatives here are Georgiades and Westhoff. Georgiades is a 7 gamer who isn't playing any better than Marshall is. Would you rather take the 7 gamer or the 30 gamer into the finals? Westhoff has proven over time he can't hack it playing as a KPF in big matches against good opponents.
 

El_Scorcho

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I think it's a little different this year. We've got Dixon on fire and Ladhams set to come back to play that second ruck/third tall role. This puts Marshall in direct competition with Georgiades, who is also a talented first round draft choice and has shown just as much as Marshall this year.

We're top of the ladder, it's not as simple as backing a guy in for development at this stage. If Georgiades or even Westhoff are seen as in better form or just better for whatever reason, we're absolutely obligated to pick them ahead of Marshall.
I absolutely agree, but I don't see that Westhoff or Georgiades have been any better than Marshall this year. Marshall was playing well until he got injured and as I posted above, i'd much rather take a 30 gamer KPF into a finals series over a 7 gamer or a tall flanker who doesn't deal well with heat.

If Georgiades had been setting the world on fire it'd be a different story, but he was just pretty good for a rookie, showed some excellent signs, drifted in and out of games as you'd expect a 7 gamer to do.

I think we're almost certainly going with Ladhams as the 3rd Forward/Ruck, so our best chance of having a performing 2nd KPF alongside Dixon for a premiership tilt is going back in time and getting a teenage Ken Hinkley really into cricket. Without time travel, it's by playing Marshall.
 

Econopower

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Marshall's season stats are down or exactly the same in the following areas
  1. Disposals
  2. Disposal Efficiency
  3. Goals
  4. Contested Possessions
  5. Metres Gained
  6. Goal Assists
  7. Score Involvements
  8. Goal Accuracy
  9. Marks insode 50
  10. Tackles
  11. Pressure Acts
  12. Contested marks (=)
They are up in clangers and turnovers

The only positive stats which are up are
  1. Total Marks 3.2 vs 3.1
  2. Spoils 1.8 vs 1.2
  3. Tackles 2.7 vs 2.4
I assume he is just as effective as being a decoy this year as any other. He is not drawing more defenders to him based on those stats.

Someone please explain to me how this is a very good year, a good year, a better year, or even a season that is the natural evolvement of a KPF? It is arguably, a step backward, or kindly, another bog average Marshall year.
It’s the warm glow from our having more success this season. No amount of more sophisticated statistical analysis will convince those that would rather cite the team’s win-loss ratio over the course of his very short career in a sport where there are 21 other people in the team on any given day.

Correlation does not equal causation people!
 

Mutha F

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Oct 4, 2019
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As much as inconsistency has plagued Hoff's career, he was capable of bobbing up and kicking 4. This is not something Marshall has shown in 2020.

Maybe we under rate Hoff as a secondary goal kicking target?

Sent from my Nokia 7.2 using Tapatalk
Dude youre on drugs
We definitely do not under rate SpudHoff as a goal kicking target.
 

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