Welcome Pick 16 (2016) - Todd Marshall

Remove this Banner Ad

Byron!!!

Club Legend
Mar 18, 2012
1,225
1,833
Gold Coast
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Yeah, if only our win record with Todd was significantly better then it is without. Wait! It is! 23-7 with him playing for a 77% win-loss, is significantly better than what our record minus Todd across the years he's been on the list. I want a flag and it's clear playing him with Dixon is an important part of it, so yeah, I'll ignore hyperbole that he hasn't dominated every game as a KPF with less than 50 games (and those with breaks for injuries and multiple family tragedies) to just look at the important results.
This season we have won 80% of games Marshall has played, but 100% of games that Sutcliffe has played. So it’s obvious that we must always play Sutcliffe.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

Byron!!!

Club Legend
Mar 18, 2012
1,225
1,833
Gold Coast
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
As we saw with Gray and his early season broken toe, it can take a while to find form again after returning. I would go with a three tall forward line of Dixon, Marshall, and Ladhams this week but if Hoff or Georgiades are kicking goals in the scratch matches and Marshall doesn’t find form, I think we need to go with who is in form.... especially if that is Hoff who is very experienced and versatile. Hoff likely retired at the end of the season and then Marshall, Georgiades, and Ladhams compete for two spots next year.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

AFC AFeederClub

All Australian
Nov 23, 2018
943
1,599
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I wouldn’t say naughton is a clear 2nd key forward nor would I say hipwood is a clear 2nd key forward.

marshall has far outperformed larkey this season. Mackay has had a good year, I like him. I don’t think he’s been better than Marshall though I could see others disagreeing but it’s certainly not clear cut.
Marshall is soft, that might be because he's young or because he's naturally soft but either way i see him drop to many marks, i see him to lazy to burn off his oppo thats why he's always getting spoiled and i see him getting pushed under the ball too much, either through lack of strength or lack of judging the ball in the air correctly.

Port get a lot of forward half entries so i wouldnt be judging him on his goal total, thats by-and-by, judge him on what all tall forwards should be judged on owning the air and owning the position
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

AFC AFeederClub

All Australian
Nov 23, 2018
943
1,599
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
This season we have won 80% of games Marshall has played, but 100% of games that Sutcliffe has played. So it’s obvious that we must always play Sutcliffe.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
on this i think sutcliffe does play the role very good, its doesnt give him much accolades but it allows others to play well, structurally he may be important, so if the choice is sutcliffe or motlop then im leaning towards sutcliffe
 

philthy05

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 9, 2008
22,334
29,158
adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
adelaide 36ers
Marshall is soft, that might be because he's young or because he's naturally soft but either way i see him drop to many marks, i see him to lazy to burn off his oppo thats why he's always getting spoiled and i see him getting pushed under the ball too much, either through lack of strength or lack of judging the ball in the air correctly.

Port get a lot of forward half entries so i wouldnt be judging him on his goal total, thats by-and-by, judge him on what all tall forwards should be judged on owning the air and owning the position
I disagree with 95% of what you’ve said here

10 mins into his first game back from a broken thumb he goes for a smother yet he’s somehow soft? Nobody even knew when he first broke his thumb cause he tried to play through it. He’s pretty rarely spoiled to be honest. If you don’t count the two games back from a broken thumb he was taking marks pretty damn well when he pushed up the ground. Pushed under the ball a bit? In past seasons yes the 20yr old developing kf has been by seasoned defenders.
 

Ah12

Senior List
Jan 24, 2019
246
283
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I disagree with 95% of what you’ve said here

10 mins into his first game back from a broken thumb he goes for a smother yet he’s somehow soft? Nobody even knew when he first broke his thumb cause he tried to play through it. He’s pretty rarely spoiled to be honest. If you don’t count the two games back from a broken thumb he was taking marks pretty damn well when he pushed up the ground. Pushed under the ball a bit? In past seasons yes the 20yr old developing kf has been by seasoned defenders.
I think soft is the wrong word to use. A lack of physicality in his game is what i would say. Now hes still quite young and obviously hasnt filled out so time is on his side to improve that over the next few years.
 

El_Scorcho

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 21, 2007
26,755
67,049
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Aston Villa, San Antonio Spurs
Marshall is soft, that might be because he's young or because he's naturally soft but either way i see him drop to many marks, i see him to lazy to burn off his oppo thats why he's always getting spoiled and i see him getting pushed under the ball too much, either through lack of strength or lack of judging the ball in the air correctly.

Port get a lot of forward half entries so i wouldnt be judging him on his goal total, thats by-and-by, judge him on what all tall forwards should be judged on owning the air and owning the position
He's played 30 games. Judge him by what 30 game key forwards are doing. He's also just come back from a 6 week injury layoff.

Our high level of forward half entries also mean the defence is pinned on our forward half with us, so he's not getting the space in transition or cheapies over the top that other key forwards of his experience level might get.

He either gets backed in to find form, or a decade from now we're all still furrowing our brows and wondering why none of the obviously talented KPFs we draft seem to come on.
 

Enviable Tradition

Professional Procrastinator
Oct 12, 2007
19,334
23,234
The Hills
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
No one is immune to criticism, and maybe i am biased but i love what Marshall brings. Perhaps its not always reflected on the scoreboard or stats sheet, but he is an important part of the side. There is no co-incidence Charlie plays better when he is in the side.
100%.

Out entire forward half system looks better when he is there. Talls and smalls.

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

Powerage

Club Legend
Aug 14, 2014
1,414
1,699
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Teams are more likely to lose when playing opponents higher on the ladder. That isn't a revelation. You could do this for basically every player in the league. It doesn't make Marshall's 23-7 record any less impressive, sorry. Not when he's played for a team that has been about a 55/45 proposition for his entire career.

Again, Marshall started this season as a 20 game KPF. He's now at 30 games. I'm not sure what you think 20-30 game KPFs are usually doing, but Jeremy Cameron aside, this is about it, even the ones who are now stars of the competition.

The alternatives here are Georgiades and Westhoff. Georgiades is a 7 gamer who isn't playing any better than Marshall is. Would you rather take the 7 gamer or the 30 gamer into the finals? Westhoff has proven over time he can't hack it playing as a KPF in big matches against good opponents.
Over the last 3 seasons (Marshall's entire career), there has been either 1 or 2 wins between 7th and 12th at the end of the season.

Including 2017 there have been a difference of 2, 3, 3 and 5 games plus considerable percentage between teams positioned 7th and 13th.

Marshall's career has been extremely scattered which always has the potential to seriously skew his record. Look at his career:
2017 Rd 22, 23, Elim Final
2018 Rd 1 to 4, Rd 13 to 15
2019 Rd 1 to 2, Rd 5 to 8, Rd 20 to 23
2020, in a season where we have been winning with or without Marshall, Rd 1 to 8, Rd 14 and 16


Across those games he has had the following stats:
GMDisposalsMarksMarks Outside 50GoalsBehindsTacklesGA
308.93.12.010.72.40.6

These are all below average stats for a KPF except for Goals which is average and tackles which is above average.

All this combined makes the win loss ratio in games difficult to assign significant causation too. If you can't admit that you are in denial. Yes, the most significant causation is improved forward structure and as a decoy for Dixon. But with those stats he is hardly setting the world on fire in either role. But his win loss ratio has as much to do with luck as his contribution to the outcome of games. Anyone looking at all of these factors objectively must agree.
 

Tibbs

Premiership Player
Sep 9, 2013
4,622
10,562
Brisbane
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I think everyone agrees on his strengths and his value to our side & the forward structure. But I was watching him carefully on Saturday, & IMO he doesnt go for the contested ball nearly hard enough. We cant deny it, and we shouldnt ignore it. I hope the coaches have identified this, and are helping address it. I liked the piece in on AFL.com regarding Diesel Williams' take on Paddy Dow of Carlton ... The same is true of Todd - Good player, but needs to lift a level.


CARLTON legend Greg Williams has taken aim at former No.3 draft pick Paddy Dow – a player he was invited back to the Blues to coach last season. "He got back last week. I thought just watching him, he's just not desperate enough, not going hard enough and I'm pretty blunt, but I think you get what you deserve." Williams told SEN.

"You've got to toughen up.

Williams has previously transformed Hawthorn's Tom Mitchell into a Brownlow medallist and before that worked with Essendon captain Jobe Watson and the Bombers' midfield group. "I remember telling Jobe Watson this when he was about 19, I said 'You've got to play like a man or don't play'," Williams said. "Jobe was thinking he was going hard, he was going half-hard. Then he starts going hard and he turns into a man and same with (Sydney co-captain) Josh Kennedy.

 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

El_Scorcho

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 21, 2007
26,755
67,049
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Aston Villa, San Antonio Spurs
Over the last 3 seasons (Marshall's entire career), there has been either 1 or 2 wins between 7th and 12th at the end of the season.

Including 2017 there have been a difference of 2, 3, 3 and 5 games plus considerable percentage between teams positioned 7th and 13th.

Marshall's career has been extremely scattered which always has the potential to seriously skew his record. Look at his career:
2017 Rd 22, 23, Elim Final
2018 Rd 1 to 4, Rd 13 to 15
2019 Rd 1 to 2, Rd 5 to 8, Rd 20 to 23
2020, in a season where we have been winning with or without Marshall, Rd 1 to 8, Rd 14 and 16


Across those games he has had the following stats:
GMDisposalsMarksMarks Outside 50GoalsBehindsTacklesGA
308.93.12.010.72.40.6

These are all below average stats for a KPF except for Goals which is average and tackles which is above average.

All this combined makes the win loss ratio in games difficult to assign significant causation too. If you can't admit that you are in denial. Yes, the most significant causation is improved forward structure and as a decoy for Dixon. But with those stats he is hardly setting the world on fire in either role. But his win loss ratio has as much to do with luck as his contribution to the outcome of games. Anyone looking at all of these factors objectively must agree.
"Objectively", Jesus Christ. His contribution isn't just kicks and handballs, it's about how he works with the other forwards to give us one of the most effective forward lines we've had under Hinkley.

His stats might be below average compared to established KPFs, but again, what are they like compared to other KPFs who came into the season with 20 games under their belts? Your expectations aren't in line with reality.

Have a look at the stats of the key forwards in the 22under22 side that was just announced. I guarantee Todd Marshall makes that side if he hadn't missed 6 weeks with injury.
 

Incarnate

Club Legend
Jan 11, 2017
1,297
1,281
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I really don’t agree with the majority of criticism nor understand the vitriol angled at Marshall. He’s a young KPP who historically take longer to develop and he is 2 games back from injury.

I had seen improvements in his game and thought he was developing nicely until his injury. He clearly has a unique set of talents so using a cookie cutter approach is pointless when comparing him to other developing players let alone trying to ascertain if he is any good thru stats.
Let him develop. Let him find continuity, confidence and learn his craft.
I don’t know if it’s agenda driven or a clear lack of understanding of the cycle of a player’s development that leads to such hasty condemnation but a little patience wouldn’t go astray and this can be applied to a lot of other players in our squad.
 

Incarnate

Club Legend
Jan 11, 2017
1,297
1,281
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I think everyone agrees on his strengths and his value to our side & the forward structure. But I was watching him carefully on Saturday, & IMO he doesnt go for the contested ball nearly hard enough. We cant deny it, and we shouldnt ignore it. I hope the coaches have identified this, and are helping address it. I liked the piece in on AFL.com regarding Diesel Williams' take on Paddy Dow of Carlton ... The same is true of Todd - Good player, but needs to lift a level.


CARLTON legend Greg Williams has taken aim at former
Diesel is right, intensity and hunger for the ball is paramount to being a very successful footballer and is especially crucial to the type of players mentioned. They are all inside midfielders or extractors not 200cm 21yo KPP.
 

JUSTWORK

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 25, 2013
12,221
15,453
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Diesel is right, intensity and hunger for the ball is paramount to being a very successful footballer and is especially crucial to the type of players mentioned. They are all inside midfielders or extractors not 200cm 21yo KPP.
But it’s not important for Key Forwards who need to crash packs and effectively get tagged every week ?
 

Tibbs

Premiership Player
Sep 9, 2013
4,622
10,562
Brisbane
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Diesel is right, intensity and hunger for the ball is paramount to being a very successful footballer and is especially crucial to the type of players mentioned. They are all inside midfielders or extractors not 200cm 21yo KPP.
Bullcrap! Just look at charlie's attack on every ball - Be it in the air, on the ground, in the hands of an oppo player!

It doenst matter what position you play, intensity at each contest is an absolute! I love the guy, and I certainly never have, nor ever seen, VITRIOL directed at him. As part of his development, he needs to address this as a weakness in his game. If and when he does, he will go from being a role player, to a potentially great KPF
 

Incarnate

Club Legend
Jan 11, 2017
1,297
1,281
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Bullcrap! Just look at charlie's attack on every ball - Be it in the air, on the ground, in the hands of an oppo player!

It doenst matter what position you play, intensity at each contest is an absolute! I love the guy, and I certainly never have, nor ever seen, VITRIOL directed at him. As part of his development, he needs to address this as a weakness in his game. If and when he does, he will go from being a role player, to a potentially great KPF
Bullcrap to what? Did you read my post?
 

malcheski

#BringBackTheBars
Feb 20, 2013
1,051
4,503
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Chicago Bulls
Over the last 3 seasons (Marshall's entire career), there has been either 1 or 2 wins between 7th and 12th at the end of the season.

Including 2017 there have been a difference of 2, 3, 3 and 5 games plus considerable percentage between teams positioned 7th and 13th.

Marshall's career has been extremely scattered which always has the potential to seriously skew his record. Look at his career:
2017 Rd 22, 23, Elim Final
2018 Rd 1 to 4, Rd 13 to 15
2019 Rd 1 to 2, Rd 5 to 8, Rd 20 to 23
2020, in a season where we have been winning with or without Marshall, Rd 1 to 8, Rd 14 and 16


Across those games he has had the following stats:
GMDisposalsMarksMarks Outside 50GoalsBehindsTacklesGA
308.93.12.010.72.40.6

These are all below average stats for a KPF except for Goals which is average and tackles which is above average.

All this combined makes the win loss ratio in games difficult to assign significant causation too. If you can't admit that you are in denial. Yes, the most significant causation is improved forward structure and as a decoy for Dixon. But with those stats he is hardly setting the world on fire in either role. But his win loss ratio has as much to do with luck as his contribution to the outcome of games. Anyone looking at all of these factors objectively must agree.

Lets compare stats then. The below is Dixon's output with and without Todd in the team (remember Mitch was in the Todd role whilst he was out):

With MarshallWithout MarshallDifference
Disposals
10.50​
7.80​
-2.70​
Goals
2.86​
1.75​
-1.11​
Behinds
2.00​
2.50​
0.50​
Tackles
2.60​
1.25​
-1.35​
i50
1.50​
1.75​
0.25​
Marks
4.88​
3.20​
-1.68​
CM
3.63​
2.50​
-1.13​
Mi50
3.00​
2.50​
-0.50​
GA
1.00​
1.50​
0.50​

Basically, Dixon has on average 20-25% more output with Todd in the side than when he doesn't. It isn't all about Todd's numbers, its how the team operates as a whole and when your number one target can increase their output that significantly by the addition of one player, you do it.
 

Chizza12

Team Captain
Jul 29, 2016
301
485
Wynn Vale
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I thought Marshall had turned the corner in terms of his physicality this year but he's been tentative since coming back. He's never going to be a Dixon power forward, he's a skilled, athletic, versatile mobile tall, dare I say Westhoff like. I was actually impressed with some of his ruck work against Goldstein, can't see that being developed though as we'll go back to 2 rucks. It wouldn't shock me if they think about him being turned into defender next year. Collingwood wouldn't have an AA defender in Moore if they hadn't trialled him in defence. We might also be better balanced only having Dixon, Ladhams & Georgiades as the talls in the forward line.
 

JUSTWORK

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 25, 2013
12,221
15,453
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
It absolutely is, but 200cm players play a harder position and take longer to come on physically. Which is why basically no KPFs are dominating at 21
Of course they do, no one is disputing that.

Reality is, Marshall is now in his 4 year and needs to start doing better. His attack in the contest isn’t nearly good enough and for a guy who is 198cm in his marking isn’t at the level it should be.

We have seen far batter attack on the footy and Marking contests from Mitch Georgiades this year and he missed 18 month through injury before this year.

With Ladhams likely to come back in as 3rd tall forward / 2nd ruck that probably leaves one stop for MG or Marshall.

Marshall now needs to prove he is the better option than MG for that spot in the side and from what we have seen from the two this year, I’m not sure he it.
 

Doctor Feel

Shitposter In Chief
Mar 30, 2009
61,703
169,369
#BringBackTheBars
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
If he can add a few goals to his game, it will further decrease the pressure on Dixon because they'll be a little more concerned with stopping Marshall if he can crop up when they clamp Dixon.

Just needs more time. He and Dixon and the small forwards still have improvement in them and their connection/ability to read the actions of each other and preempt good positioning.

I guess it's good that we still have room for improvement and sit at the top of the ladder. Just need to beat some genuinely good sides that are in good form at the time.
 

Top Bottom