Welcome Pick 16 (2016) - Todd Marshall

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LaunchpadMcQuack

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Over the last 3 seasons (Marshall's entire career), there has been either 1 or 2 wins between 7th and 12th at the end of the season.

Including 2017 there have been a difference of 2, 3, 3 and 5 games plus considerable percentage between teams positioned 7th and 13th.

Marshall's career has been extremely scattered which always has the potential to seriously skew his record. Look at his career:
2017 Rd 22, 23, Elim Final
2018 Rd 1 to 4, Rd 13 to 15
2019 Rd 1 to 2, Rd 5 to 8, Rd 20 to 23
2020, in a season where we have been winning with or without Marshall, Rd 1 to 8, Rd 14 and 16


Across those games he has had the following stats:
GMDisposalsMarksMarks Outside 50GoalsBehindsTacklesGA
308.93.12.010.72.40.6

These are all below average stats for a KPF except for Goals which is average and tackles which is above average.

All this combined makes the win loss ratio in games difficult to assign significant causation too. If you can't admit that you are in denial. Yes, the most significant causation is improved forward structure and as a decoy for Dixon. But with those stats he is hardly setting the world on fire in either role. But his win loss ratio has as much to do with luck as his contribution to the outcome of games. Anyone looking at all of these factors objectively must agree.
Marshall's career has been extremely scattered.

Also look at these stats that show him being above average to below average in this same scattered period.

JFC.

He gets on base.
 

Powerage

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Lets compare stats then. The below is Dixon's output with and without Todd in the team (remember Mitch was in the Todd role whilst he was out):

With MarshallWithout MarshallDifference
Disposals
10.50​
7.80​
-2.70​
Goals
2.86​
1.75​
-1.11​
Behinds
2.00​
2.50​
0.50​
Tackles
2.60​
1.25​
-1.35​
i50
1.50​
1.75​
0.25​
Marks
4.88​
3.20​
-1.68​
CM
3.63​
2.50​
-1.13​
Mi50
3.00​
2.50​
-0.50​
GA
1.00​
1.50​
0.50​

Basically, Dixon has on average 20-25% more output with Todd in the side than when he doesn't. It isn't all about Todd's numbers, its how the team operates as a whole and when your number one target can increase their output that significantly by the addition of one player, you do it.
I don't dispute that having Marshall in the team helps Dixon. There are other things to consider though. Did you check the strength of the opposition when Marshall and Dixon played compared to when only Dixon played? Did Marshall play many games when Dixon was playing underdone and recovering from his broken leg and not performing well?

I am not going after Marshall with vitriol. It is OBJECTIVE to take into account all the factors that contribute to the Marshall win loss ratio and the Marshall Dixon win loss ratio. Do you want our players performances to be assessed accurately or not?

I'm arguing against flawed win loss ratios that overestimate Marshall's importance in Ports wins. I have said before play Marshall. I'm not arguing against that. Right now he is the best second forward option. Next season though we will have Georgiades and Laddhams playing AFL games and SANFL games. If Marshall doesn't improve his own performances and the other two are playing well then they either replace Marshall in the forward line and Marshall plays in the reserves or he plays in a different position to see if that works better for him. No gifted games because of flawed win loss ratios.
 

Tibbs

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Bullcrap to what? Did you read my post?
Yep, all of them. I love the guy, but he has to get harder at contests. Dont tell me its only for bull-mids! I just dont accept that.

Allow him time to develop - sure! But the coaches need to keep pushing him on his weak points!
 

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El_Scorcho

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Todd Marshall vs the Key Forwards selected in the 22under22 squad yesterday.

20200908_140855.jpg


These guys have just been voted the best developing key forwards in the league. All are roughly Marshall's age and level of experience. All were taken higher than Marshall in their respective drafts.

If you're expecting Marshall to be head and shoulders above these guys, you don't understand AFL level key forward development.
 

Incarnate

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Yep, all of them. I love the guy, but he has to get harder at contests. Dont tell me its only for bull-mids! I just dont accept that.

Allow him time to develop - sure! But the coaches need to keep pushing him on his weak points!
Pretty sure I stated that hunger and intensity is all inclusive. I did suggest patience in regards to Todd.
 

Doctor Feel

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Todd Marshall vs the Key Forwards selected in the 22under22 squad yesterday.

View attachment 956074

These guys have just been voted the best developing key forwards in the league. All are roughly Marshall's age and level of experience. All were taken higher than Marshall in their respective drafts.

If you're expecting Marshall to be head and shoulders above these guys, you don't understand AFL level key forward development.
The I50s is an interesting one. Playing more up that ground than the others more likely. Supports the "creating space for Dixon" theory.
 

Tibbs

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Pretty sure I stated that hunger and intensity is all inclusive. I did suggest patience in regards to Todd.
No problems, we are on the same page then. I reckon his development is vital for our side. I just dont like it that some are glossing over his shortcomings. Hopefully the coaches are doing the opposite ... highlighting them, and helping him address them.

Just remember though, that sometimes getting dropped is an organic and necessary part of that development. ATM though, I think we need to be patient and allow him these last few games of the season to get confidence in his hand after the injury, and to find more touch. Hopefully back to his best come finals.
 

Powerage

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Todd Marshall vs the Key Forwards selected in the 22under22 squad yesterday.

View attachment 956074

These guys have just been voted the best developing key forwards in the league. All are roughly Marshall's age and level of experience. All were taken higher than Marshall in their respective drafts.

If you're expecting Marshall to be head and shoulders above these guys, you don't understand AFL level key forward development.
If that is directed at me, I have never compared Marshall to other KPF's. However if I was going to, here is my understanding of AFL level key forward development.

All of thise guys are head and shoulders above Marshall in two or more of the following areas:
  1. Contested Marks
  2. Marks inside Fifty
  3. Shots on goal.
Yeah its useful that Marshall takes marks up the ground but if I were his defender I would let him run up the ground, get somebody else to zone or stand him and get ready to double team Dixon. Maybe that's why all of those guys are in the team and Marshall is not.
 

AFC AFeederClub

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I disagree with 95% of what you’ve said here

10 mins into his first game back from a broken thumb he goes for a smother yet he’s somehow soft? Nobody even knew when he first broke his thumb cause he tried to play through it. He’s pretty rarely spoiled to be honest. If you don’t count the two games back from a broken thumb he was taking marks pretty damn well when he pushed up the ground. Pushed under the ball a bit? In past seasons yes the 20yr old developing kf has been by seasoned defenders.
wow, blinkers
 

philthy05

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If that is directed at me, I have never compared Marshall to other KPF's. However if I was going to, here is my understanding of AFL level key forward development.

All of thise guys are head and shoulders above Marshall in two or more of the following areas:
  1. Contested Marks
  2. Marks inside Fifty
  3. Shots on goal.
Yeah its useful that Marshall takes marks up the ground but if I were his defender I would let him run up the ground, get somebody else to zone or stand him and get ready to double team Dixon. Maybe that's why all of those guys are in the team and Marshall is not.
Your rating of Marshall aside do you want to acknowledge that the 4 kpfs you rate higher than him were all top 10 draft picks and each one of those clubs spent multiple top ten picks on kpp before they found those guys?
 

El_Scorcho

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If that is directed at me, I have never compared Marshall to other KPF's. However if I was going to, here is my understanding of AFL level key forward development.

All of thise guys are head and shoulders above Marshall in two or more of the following areas:
  1. Contested Marks
  2. Marks inside Fifty
  3. Shots on goal.
Yeah its useful that Marshall takes marks up the ground but if I were his defender I would let him run up the ground, get somebody else to zone or stand him and get ready to double team Dixon. Maybe that's why all of those guys are in the team and Marshall is not.
No, they're all in the team and Marshall isn't because he was injured for 6 games.

Marshall plays a lead up role for the team because his mobility and vision suit that role, and we have a stay at home gorilla forward type in Dixon. If you were defending Marshall and allowed him to run free, you'd get dropped after Port smashed you by 10 goals because allowing us to take uncontested marks through the press would open up huge amounts of space in our forward 50.

I'm comparing Marshall to other key forwards despite your unwillingness to do so because you have totally unrealistic expectations regarding what a 30 game, 21yo key forward should be doing week in week out. This is what the best key forwards in Marshall's age and experience bracket are doing. He's comfortably in that bracket.
 

Handyandy

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No, they're all in the team and Marshall isn't because he was injured for 6 games.

Marshall plays a lead up role for the team because his mobility and vision suit that role, and we have a stay at home gorilla forward type in Dixon. If you were defending Marshall and allowed him to run free, you'd get dropped after Port smashed you by 10 goals because allowing us to take uncontested marks through the press would open up huge amounts of space in our forward 50.

I'm comparing Marshall to other key forwards despite your unwillingness to do so because you have totally unrealistic expectations regarding what a 30 game, 21yo key forward should be doing week in week out. This is what the best key forwards in Marshall's age and experience bracket are doing. He's comfortably in that bracket.
I don't need to investigate stats, refer to the current sitting of opposition on the day we played them (that's all arbitrary rubbish), its all in the vibe, when i see marshall is Playing I know we will win, so I put money on knowing our forward line will have some semblance of normal function. if we had a half decent forward line we wouldn't have missed any finals since hinkleys tenure. I like making boxing analogies, and with marshall in we have a ko forward line, that is we can knock someone down and win the contest in a VERY BRIEF flurry, ko our oppo in a 5 minute burst. without him it is hard work, you are relying on mr concrete hands to clutch a few and gray to kick a few freak goals from the random chaos
 
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Chewy316

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Todd Marshall vs the Key Forwards selected in the 22under22 squad yesterday.

View attachment 956074

These guys have just been voted the best developing key forwards in the league. All are roughly Marshall's age and level of experience. All were taken higher than Marshall in their respective drafts.

If you're expecting Marshall to be head and shoulders above these guys, you don't understand AFL level key forward development.
All of those players have the frame to suggest they are going to be beasts physically. Marshall is not that - he is the Westhoff bean pole type.

He is travelling ok, but he needs to be more ferocious when attacking the footy. At times he is far too passive.

He was pretty solid until he broke his thumb. Hopefully he can recapture some of the early form he had this season in the finals.
 

Powerage

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Your rating of Marshall aside do you want to acknowledge that the 4 kpfs you rate higher than him were all top 10 draft picks and each one of those clubs spent multiple top ten picks on kpp before they found those guys?
Its on the record they are all top 10 picks. I have no idea about the prior picks of those clubs.

I rate them higher as true KPF's. Can you acknowledge they would all be better decoys for Dixon than Marshall?

I do get frustrated at his hesitance to hit the contest, or lead up inside 50. Noone can deny that if he had the mindset of Georgiades or Butters he would be twice the KPF he is now. I'm hoping that as his body matures he will learn to impose himself more using his frame and his skills to become a bigger threat up forward.

I don't want to be seen to be deriding Marshall. He has gone through things no young person his age should have to. I recognise his physical attributes and skill. Yes play him for the rest of the year. Play him as form dictates vs Laddhams and Georgiades as true KPF's. If one of them proves to have better form and win their opportunity, try Marshalls abilities somewhere else before dropping him I think. He may yet become a KPF. He has the attributes to be a better swingman than Westhoff once he builds his tank and his frame. He could even become an All Australian Defender in the future. He has got the body, athleticism and skills most players would kill for. As yet he doesn't seem to have the desire or the desperation to win every contest at all costs like our very best players do.

What I get tired of are the people who say and blindly repeat, that
this has been his best year when the stats don't much support that,
that this is why Dixon is having his best year without taking into account Dixon had his firs full season with extra training in America,
that his win loss ratio speaks for itself when he has had a scattered career playing lower ranked teams which has partly contributed to that ratio,
that he is at least as much of a true KPF as the other 22under22s when IMO he is not a true KPF at all.

For mine a true KPF is a threat when the ball is heading inside 50. He will lead or contest and either mark the ball or bring it down front and square more often than not or give their damnedest in the attempt. Who can say Marshall really does that often enough as yet?
 

Powerage

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No, they're all in the team and Marshall isn't because he was injured for 6 games.

Marshall plays a lead up role for the team because his mobility and vision suit that role, and we have a stay at home gorilla forward type in Dixon. If you were defending Marshall and allowed him to run free, you'd get dropped after Port smashed you by 10 goals because allowing us to take uncontested marks through the press would open up huge amounts of space in our forward 50.

I'm comparing Marshall to other key forwards despite your unwillingness to do so because you have totally unrealistic expectations regarding what a 30 game, 21yo key forward should be doing week in week out. This is what the best key forwards in Marshall's age and experience bracket are doing. He's comfortably in that bracket.
Bullshit. McKay played the same number of games as Marshall. 10.
Oh look, I might be wrong about what the defender is doing. I really don't care. Marshall takes enough uncontested marks up the ground now and I don't see huge amounts of space in our forward fifty. Do you?

I just told you why he is not sitting comfortably in their bracket. They are a threat inside fifty when the ball is kicked in there. Marshall is much less so. My expectations are not unrealistic because it is his mindset that is the issue and that has nothing to do with his age or experience.

If you disagree, good for you.
 

philthy05

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Its on the record they are all top 10 picks. I have no idea about the prior picks of those clubs.

I rate them higher as true KPF's. Can you acknowledge they would all be better decoys for Dixon than Marshall?

I do get frustrated at his hesitance to hit the contest, or lead up inside 50. Noone can deny that if he had the mindset of Georgiades or Butters he would be twice the KPF he is now. I'm hoping that as his body matures he will learn to impose himself more using his frame and his skills to become a bigger threat up forward.

I don't want to be seen to be deriding Marshall. He has gone through things no young person his age should have to. I recognise his physical attributes and skill. Yes play him for the rest of the year. Play him as form dictates vs Laddhams and Georgiades as true KPF's. If one of them proves to have better form and win their opportunity, try Marshalls abilities somewhere else before dropping him I think. He may yet become a KPF. He has the attributes to be a better swingman than Westhoff once he builds his tank and his frame. He could even become an All Australian Defender in the future. He has got the body, athleticism and skills most players would kill for. As yet he doesn't seem to have the desire or the desperation to win every contest at all costs like our very best players do.

What I get tired of are the people who say and blindly repeat, that
this has been his best year when the stats don't much support that,
that this is why Dixon is having his best year without taking into account Dixon had his firs full season with extra training in America,
that his win loss ratio speaks for itself when he has had a scattered career playing lower ranked teams which has partly contributed to that ratio,
that he is at least as much of a true KPF as the other 22under22s when IMO he is not a true KPF at all.

For mine a true KPF is a threat when the ball is heading inside 50. He will lead or contest and either mark the ball or bring it down front and square more often than not or give their damnedest in the attempt. Who can say Marshall really does that often enough as yet?
you’ve manage to write a 10,000 word essay and everyone of them is wrong.

they would be better decoys than Marshall? No.

Hesitance to hit up contests? False. He’s fine. fu** he was crashing plenty of packs early in the year when people were critical of him flying for the same ball as Dixon. He’s been crashing packs in the magpies for years. He’s not even near a finished product physically either.

are you claiming ladhams or Georgiades play like kpps? Georgiades plays nothing like a traditional kf. He’s the furthest from it. He’s a freak athlete who flies and has good hands but is invisible for 98% of the time, which is okay cause he’s a baby and he’s going to develop into something special in time.

imagine saying the bloke who smothered a ball in the first minutes back from a broken thumb doesn’t have the desperation. By that measure we should only be fielding like 7 players.

We shouldn’t be playing him anywhere else. Keep pumping games into him up forward.
 

Powerage

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you’ve manage to write a 10,000 word essay and everyone of them is wrong.

they would be better decoys than Marshall? No.

Hesitance to hit up contests? False. He’s fine. fu** he was crashing plenty of packs early in the year when people were critical of him flying for the same ball as Dixon. He’s been crashing packs in the magpies for years. He’s not even near a finished product physically either.

are you claiming ladhams or Georgiades play like kpps? Georgiades plays nothing like a traditional kf. He’s the furthest from it. He’s a freak athlete who flies and has good hands but is invisible for 98% of the time, which is okay cause he’s a baby and he’s going to develop into something special in time.

imagine saying the bloke who smothered a ball in the first minutes back from a broken thumb doesn’t have the desperation. By that measure we should only be fielding like 7 players.

We shouldn’t be playing him anywhere else. Keep pumping games into him up forward.
Ok I'll write a much shorter essay which is absolutely correct.

You are entitled to your opinion and I am entitled to mine.

Taking one example of an attempted smother and trying to tell me that as a result he is always desperate enough in marking contests is ******* ludicrous.
 

Handyandy

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Its on the record they are all top 10 picks. I have no idea about the prior picks of those clubs.

I rate them higher as true KPF's. Can you acknowledge they would all be better decoys for Dixon than Marshall?

I do get frustrated at his hesitance to hit the contest, or lead up inside 50. Noone can deny that if he had the mindset of Georgiades or Butters he would be twice the KPF he is now. I'm hoping that as his body matures he will learn to impose himself more using his frame and his skills to become a bigger threat up forward.

I don't want to be seen to be deriding Marshall. He has gone through things no young person his age should have to. I recognise his physical attributes and skill. Yes play him for the rest of the year. Play him as form dictates vs Laddhams and Georgiades as true KPF's. If one of them proves to have better form and win their opportunity, try Marshalls abilities somewhere else before dropping him I think. He may yet become a KPF. He has the attributes to be a better swingman than Westhoff once he builds his tank and his frame. He could even become an All Australian Defender in the future. He has got the body, athleticism and skills most players would kill for. As yet he doesn't seem to have the desire or the desperation to win every contest at all costs like our very best players do.

What I get tired of are the people who say and blindly repeat, that
this has been his best year when the stats don't much support that,
that this is why Dixon is having his best year without taking into account Dixon had his firs full season with extra training in America,
that his win loss ratio speaks for itself when he has had a scattered career playing lower ranked teams which has partly contributed to that ratio,
that he is at least as much of a true KPF as the other 22under22s when IMO he is not a true KPF at all.

For mine a true KPF is a threat when the ball is heading inside 50. He will lead or contest and either mark the ball or bring it down front and square more often than not or give their damnedest in the attempt. Who can say Marshall really does that often enough as yet?
are you talking about Dixon or marshall. the latter sacrifices his own game to provide space for the former, if the former plays from behind and gets outmarked every instance by a rookie then its not marshalls fault. the only issue is that marshall should get more confidence and take on the job that Dixon cant do consistently. I mean Dixon had 20 one on ones on the weekend and was barely able to grab a single mark. pathetic really. I worry a lot more about mr concrete hands than silky marshall in the long run.
 

philthy05

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Taking one example of an attempted smother and trying to tell me that as a result he is always desperate enough in marking contests is ******* ludicrous.
Desperation in marking contests? do you remember Franklin or Richmonds tom Lynch at Marshalls age?

fu** me the 4 players you listed? Mackay and the king twins do not attack contested marks noticeably more desperately than Marshall. the king twins are athletes with great reach. They're good in the air with decent attack but they're not especially more aggressive in the marking contest than Marshall. Naughton is known for his aggressive attack on the aerial ball and the only one that stands out in that regard. Naughtons one of the most desperate physical attacks on the aerial ball the game has seen in a long time from a kf to be honest. he's a rarity, rather than a common occurrence. I wouldn't even say Hawkins plays with a more desperate attack on aerial contests than Marshall (Hawkins plays smarter rather than harder imo)

the thing you are identifying though is a bunch of players who are their sides number 1 kf target, and not the clear number 2 kf.
 

El_Scorcho

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My expectations are not unrealistic because it is his mindset that is the issue and that has nothing to do with his age or experience.
You don't know what his mindset is, and it's ultimately irrelevant because even if he was terrified of all physical contact like Troy Chaplain, we still win far, far more when he plays and he's still both our best performed option at KPF2 and his continued selection gives us our best chance of winning at the pointy end of this season.

You'd like him to be more physical and impose himself more, fine. But you've tried to flex that personal feeling into playing down his performance and value to the team. I can't abide. He's playing a very important role and his chemistry with his teammates and confidence on return from injury will only improve.
 

philthy05

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20567189-8828-45C8-8638-25F0CD761795.jpeg

So leading disposals, smashing them in tackles and inside 50’s, on the money in score involvements, middle of the pack in marks and behind them in goals by 0.3 - 0.6 of a goal when he’s the only one of the group to be playing with a dominant key forward in the Coleman race...

Lol.
 
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El_Scorcho

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Also lol at these stats powerage posted before as if they were a bad reflection on Todd

View attachment 956462
So leading disposals, smashing them in tackles and inside 50’s, on the money in score involvements, middle of the pack in marks and behind them in goals by 0.3 - 0.6 of a goal when he’s the only one of the group to be playing with a dominant key forward in the Coleman race...

Lol.
In fairness to Powerage, I posted these stats. He then decided other stats were more important like contested marks, marks inside 50 and shots at goal.

Obviously Todd plays a higher role as a lead up player and if we're doing everything right, he shouldn't need to take contested marks because he should be in space or dragging a defender away from another forward in space.
 

Incarnate

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Every player has his kit, his bag, maximise the positives build on the negatives and use them as such. Not all our past champions were well rounded footballers.
 

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