Pick 2

[newcastlefalcon]

The Pies would happily wave good bye to Swan or Sidebottom for pick 2. As would Crows with Douglas, as would Essendon and Zaharakis, as would Cats with Bartel (though doesn't fit Dees reqs anyway)

I can't see Geelong considering offloading Bartel.
I would be really careful about considering anyone from Essendon but if the Dees could get Swan or Sidebottom it would certainly improve their tattoo gallery and they should grab it.

 

[F_therest]

The demons need to realise pick 2 will not get a core A grade midfield player from another club for 2 reasons.

He would be worth more than that pick to his current club.

The player would want to go to a rebuilding club.

Example: Pick 2 won't cut it with any of these
Swan/pendle/Beams/steelbum
Cotchin/Dids
Danger/sloane/Douglas
Watson/Heppell/Zaha
Selwood/bartel
Fyfe/barlow/Mundy

Like with the Rockcliff rumour, if he wants to go to Melbourne the lions would talk to you first but if you approach them about Rockcliff for pick 2 they would laugh you off.

I agree Melbourne will probably have to settle for a good player and decent draft pick or 2 good players instead of absolute A graders.

But seriously...you wouldnt trade Zaharakis for pick 2?? He aint that good. No where near as good as the other names on that list

 

[HirdyLannister]

I agree Melbourne will probably have to settle for a good player and decent draft pick or 2 good players instead of absolute A graders.

But seriously...you wouldnt trade Zaharakis for pick 2?? He aint that good. No where near as good as the other names on that list

If I look at it purely pick vs player then yes I would trade Zaha for pick2 but it isn't that simple because not every pick will be better. The output of zaha at the age of only 23-24 the club might deem that good enough but he should be starting to hit his straps at that age. Watson is a perfect example, he was a late developer he didn't show what he could do till 3 years ago at the age of 25 roughly.

But right now with Zaha, no I wouldn't because you need to look at the list as a whole not one player in it.
Like
Before round 18 we were 2nd on later an about to vs the hawks the AFLPA talk to the whole essendon group and told them don't expect to play finals its highly likely but unconfirmed by anyone from the club. Since that Essendon feel apart, the players didn't bother as what were they playing for? nothing?
Essendon should be challenging for top 4 next year so what would they hurt the midfield by getting rid of zaha where it isn't our strongest due to being so young and pick up a 18 year old? The club didn't draft goddard for no reason if we aren't pushing for the 8 and deep September it was a stupid trade to get goddard then.

 

[theflea]

Disagree. Max Gawn is still 21, doesn't even turn 22 until December and has had to come back from 2 knee reco's (which is a concern but also highlights his development) and a serious hamstring injury. When in the VFL he dominates with goals and hit outs. He held his own against the 2 from Sydney and in most other games. Only really played badly in a last quarter when Minson started to really belt him around on a wet night but again was right in it for 3/4s. Gawn has great potential and if he gets through his first preseason I think you'll start to see it.

Jamar is practically finished but can be reasonable depth if his body holds up through preseason and Spencer is very meh but is also only 23 and 204cm and can ruck just offers nothing around the ground, he's not the worst depth in the world.

I think Clark will be the resting ruck but might get eased back into that role until his body shows he can do it. Then he might be like Hale from the hawks. Max Gawn shares more than just a first name with Max Bailey, they have quite a few similarities.

I think we'd be keen on a project player to replace Jamar and be better than Spencer in the draft but wouldn't be keen on a trade.

The problem is you cant fit all of Hogan, Dawes, Clark and Howe in the fwd 50 so something has to give. In fact the first 3 will find it hard all being in the same area. So with this in mind I cant see a spot for Spencer, Gawn or Fitzpatrick in your best team at the same time. Sure good for depth but having 1 of these will leave the team too tall imo. I'd have Clark as ruck no1 with either Dawes or Howes as a relief. Remember the dees need as many mids in the team as they can find. With these 4 plus Frawley, Mcdonald and Garland that's your 7 talls plus Watts as another supposed tall mid you wont have any run if you another tall to this lineup.

 

[Schulzycrow]

Melbourne need some good mids who have 50 - 75 games experience 22-26 age bracket. They have some up and comers that will be good in a couple of years, but Jones needs some help. The Dees need inside and outside mids, a running HBF and maybe a third tall defender. If they can get all their forward back on the park they don't need forwards. Watts is staying so they have a swingman. Two or maybe three of the above sorts of players realistically should get pick 2 done.

Clubs won't give up their stars to get pick 1 or 2 or any top 5 pick because they know what they have and there are no guarantees that any draftee is going to be that 200 game player.

I would like to see Adelaide go for pick 2 so that we could snare SA, Norwood and Crows lover Aish.
Would Henderson + Mackay or Mackay + Lyons + McKernan or something around that sort of combo?

 

[master bate]

The problem is you cant fit all of Hogan, Dawes, Clark and Howe in the fwd 50 so something has to give. In fact the first 3 will find it hard all being in the same area. So with this in mind I cant see a spot for Spencer, Gawn or Fitzpatrick in your best team at the same time. Sure good for depth but having 1 of these will leave the team too tall imo. I'd have Clark as ruck no1 with either Dawes or Howes as a relief. Remember the dees need as many mids in the team as they can find. With these 4 plus Frawley, Mcdonald and Garland that's your 7 talls plus Watts as another supposed tall mid you wont have any run if you another tall to this lineup.

Trust me I want as many mids in the team as possible as well but I have considered it. To put it simply it works like this

Gawn = Bailey - rucks 75% of the game and only does brief goal square cameos.
Clark = Hale
Dawes and Hogan = Franklin and Roughy
Howe = Gunston
Frawley, McDonald and Garland = Lake, Gibson and Stratton
Watts = Isaac Smith

Now I'd argue Gawn and Clark move every bit if not better than Bailey and Hale. We lose out the next two that's for sure but Dawes moves better when the ball hits the deck than people realise. His forward pressure is very good. Hogan has youth on his side and can play high up the ground as well and he's one of those natural footballers that doesn't move like a big man because he has great footy smarts.

Howe is a more natural midfielder than Gunston in fact I'd play Howe on a wing as much as forward if not more and if he isn't performing I'd put him in the 2's. The defenders are very mobile no concern there.

The biggest question mark is what Watts can do as a full time tall outside midfielder. Personally I still think his best position is half back flank in a Birchall or Ibbotsan type role but if his work rate and endurance improve and he finds 20 touches and does some defensive work it doesn't really matter how tall he is on a wing. His speed is certainly good enough.

Remember we have Paul Roos coaching. There will be a focus on stoppages and that mandates ruckman. A half fit Clark and a guy who hates rucking backing him up in Dawes, that wont happen. A proper ruckman will play and I just hope it's Gawn and not Jamar or Spencer. If Dawes, Clark and Hogan are all fully fit and it's not quite working we will either stick with it knowing there's upside riding it out or we'll rest Hogan at times and develop him patiently.

 

[master bate]

Melbourne need some good mids who have 50 - 75 games experience 22-26 age bracket. They have some up and comers that will be good in a couple of years, but Jones needs some help. The Dees need inside and outside mids, a running HBF and maybe a third tall defender. If they can get all their forward back on the park they don't need forwards. Watts is staying so they have a swingman. Two or maybe three of the above sorts of players realistically should get pick 2 done.

Clubs won't give up their stars to get pick 1 or 2 or any top 5 pick because they know what they have and there are no guarantees that any draftee is going to be that 200 game player.

I would like to see Adelaide go for pick 2 so that we could snare SA, Norwood and Crows lover Aish.
Would Henderson + Mackay or Mackay + Lyons + McKernan or something around that sort of combo?

Maybe read the start of this thread where people have rubbish a proposal that was much stronger than that from a crows fan who included Douglas and Kerridge.

Your proposals are laughable. Henderson is a nice player but he isn't a need and Mackay hasn't improved in 3 years and is now starting to get to the age and games level that makes you concerned he never will. Lyons is a nice prospect but again isn't a bread and butter mid and doesn't suit the age and games range for immediate impact you have quoted yourself. McKernan isn't a need as you have acknowledged.

Our need for running flankers and third tall defenders isn't that high either. Grimes will go back to half back and we have Terlich and Garland who finished top in the b+f.

We need midfielders who win the ball. Inside or out doesn't really matter but preference for inside I'd say. If you are going to trade B graders make sure they are legitimate B graders, fit the right profile age wise and are midfielders. Pick 2 isn't a certainty but its a very good shot at a quality player. Offering up 2 or 3 guys who might not even be in the AFL in a few years time wont cut it.

 

[Schulzycrow]

Maybe read the start of this thread where people have rubbish a proposal that was much stronger than that from a crows fan who included Douglas and Kerridge.

Your proposals are laughable. Henderson is a nice player but he isn't a need and Mackay hasn't improved in 3 years and is now starting to get to the age and games level that makes you concerned he never will. Lyons is a nice prospect but again isn't a bread and butter mid and doesn't suit the age and games range for immediate impact you have quoted yourself. McKernan isn't a need as you have acknowledged.

Our need for running flankers and third tall defenders isn't that high either. Grimes will go back to half back and we have Terlich and Garland who finished top in the b+f.

We need midfielders who win the ball. Inside or out doesn't really matter but preference for inside I'd say. If you are going to trade B graders make sure they are legitimate B graders, fit the right profile age wise and are midfielders. Pick 2 isn't a certainty but its a very good shot at a quality player. Offering up 2 or 3 guys who might not even be in the AFL in a few years time wont cut it.

Yep no worries. Think you will be going to the draft with pick two. Hope Roos can turn your club around.

 

[the distributer]

Sidebottom for pick 2, top 5 B n F for previous 2 or 3 years, 24 years old, premiership player, and a very decent midfielder

He isn't the type you build a midfield around, he's a good player but he isn't Worthy of pick 2.

 

[TheKITC]

GWS: Adams + Miles/Bruce/Jaksch for #2 (maybe pick upgrades required for GWS if Jaksch involved)

Brisbane: Docherty + Karnezis + #25 for #2 and #36 (perhaps doesn't directly solve midfield woes)

..... I dunno

 

[The Bomb]

GWS: Adams + Miles/Bruce/Jaksch for #2 (maybe pick upgrades required for GWS if Jaksch involved)

Brisbane: Docherty + Karnezis + #25 for #2 and #36 (perhaps doesn't directly solve midfield woes)

..... I dunno

Adams is heading Geelongs way.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Ahhh the old big football trade special of "our two B graders equal your A grader, or our three C graders equal your A grader" is really coming to town in here! Must be loving it Melbourne supporters

 

[Portmanteau]

The tables have actually turned.

People thinking a high draft pick actually buys 2 quality young players (eg Rockliff and Redden) or a quality young player and a fairly high first. (Eg Shuey and 6, Ziebell and 9) have replaced those offering 3 spuds or an average player plus a 2nd rounder.

Draft picks have become massively overvalued. Asking for a player that has shown far more than former pick 2 Jack Trengove, plus an additional top 10 pick is absolutely laughable.

How about, for the purposes of this thread, we pretend that the careers Andrew Walker or Daniel Wells are being traded for. Pretty good, you'd be happy to have them, but not worth selling the farm for. Sidebottom is about right.

 

[Tulip]

Here's a few recent top 1-3 midfielder picks: D Swallow, Scully, Trengrove, O'Rourke, Dom Tyson.

Who would you trade now for these guys? I wouldn't trade Shuey, Sloane or Beams for them that's for sure. Maybe Melbourne's best bet is a top 5-15 player at a club with a top 12 pick this year say. That way they get a solid player and say a Salem, Sheed or Marsh or whoever at the draft plus that above average player. Effectively turn pick 2 into two players, one already good plus Bontempelli or whoever who may be as good as Aish anyway.

12: O'Rourke
11: Coniglio
10: Bennell
09: Trengove
08: Naitanui
07: Cotchin
06: Gumbleton
05: Thomas
04: Roughead
03: Walker
02: Wells
01: Ball
00: Koschitzke

History of pick 2.

 

[Demonheart]

The problem is you cant fit all of Hogan, Dawes, Clark and Howe in the fwd 50 so something has to give. In fact the first 3 will find it hard all being in the same area. So with this in mind I cant see a spot for Spencer, Gawn or Fitzpatrick in your best team at the same time. Sure good for depth but having 1 of these will leave the team too tall imo. I'd have Clark as ruck no1 with either Dawes or Howes as a relief. Remember the dees need as many mids in the team as they can find. With these 4 plus Frawley, Mcdonald and Garland that's your 7 talls plus Watts as another supposed tall mid you wont have any run if you another tall to this lineup.

Good post, I have no idea what Neeld and co were thinking, on top of all this they also picked up Pederson on a 3 year deal!

They'll always be injuries though and we really don't know if Clark will ever come back to his best, right now I'd only want to trade Spencer and Fitzpatrick (but only for a great offer). My preferance is to see them after a season with Roos and then we can trade who we think won't take us forward.

 

[Demonheart]

Yep no worries. Think you will be going to the draft with pick two. Hope Roos can turn your club around.

I don't think we'll get the quality we want with pick 2, I think we'll end up using our 2nd rounders to get some good mids in and then pick up Aish or Kelly with pick 2.

The only way we could get what we want is a talented kid with the go home attitude or we get ourselves involved in a 3-way deal. We need to become a more attractive option though.

 

[Footy Smarts]

12: O'Rourke
11: Coniglio
10: Bennell
09: Trengove
08: Naitanui
07: Cotchin
06: Gumbleton
05: Thomas
04: Roughead
03: Walker
02: Wells
01: Ball
00: Koschitzke

History of pick 2.

That's not really that impressive. Sure you get a good player from pick 2 normally but how many of them are out and out stars who have produced consistent long-term careers? Only Cotchin looks to be that type of player (ignoring the last few years where it's too early to judge) while most of the others have produced some great years but also a fair bit of disappointment.

Looking at that there's no way a club is going to trade a proven 21-24 year old who's a top quality midfielder. No way you get a Fyfe, Dagerfield, Beams type. Either you get a good but not great player or you get a potential star who has some other major issues (off-field or injuries). You're much better either keeping pick 2 or downgrading your pick for a developing player who's yet to really break through (Adams + pick 9 for example).

 

[Demonheart]

That's not really that impressive. Sure you get a good player from pick 2 normally but how many of them are out and out stars who have produced consistent long-term careers? Only Cotchin looks to be that type of player (ignoring the last few years where it's too early to judge) while most of the others have produced some great years but also a fair bit of disappointment.

Looking at that there's no way a club is going to trade a proven 21-24 year old who's a top quality midfielder. No way you get a Fyfe, Dagerfield, Beams type. Either you get a good but not great player or you get a potential star who has some other major issues (off-field or injuries). You're much better either keeping pick 2 or downgrading your pick for a developing player who's yet to really break through (Adams + pick 9 for example).

You don't rate Roughhead? Hell even Thomas was elite prior to his injuries. Ball and Wells have also been good, in fact only 2 have been really disappointing and one of them have been because of bad injuries.

 

[El_Scorcho]

In what universe are Roughead and Naitanui not out and out stars?

 

[Demonheart]

In what universe are Roughead and Naitanui not out and out stars?

He needs to change his name

 

[Footy Smarts]

You don't rate Roughhead? Hell even Thomas was elite prior to his injuries. Ball and Wells have also been good, in fact only 2 have been really disappointing and one of them have been because of bad injuries.

Absolutely I rate those guys. Roughead would be the 2nd best player on the list but until this year was only a very good 2nd fiddle forward. Thomas struggled early then had a few very good years and has been cut down by injury. Ball and Wells have had some quality but a fair bit of disappointment too.

Why would a team give up a proven part of their next 5+ years for an unproven but quality youngster? Even if they're likely to get a slightly better player it's very unlikely any club would be willing to take that short-term step back. Take Mitch Duncan for example. He's a proven good young player but he's certainly no superstar. Would Melbourne be happy with pick 2 for Duncan? Not from the sounds of things. Would Geelong do that? Maybe but it would set us back for next year and possibly hurt the culture of the place by giving up a player who's done nothing wrong and doesn't want to leave.

So if you go for a direct swap, either you've got to go for:

1) A player who wants to leave their current club and is happy to come to Melbourne. Very unlikely.
2) A player who their club isn't desperate to keep. In this case they might be a good player but clearly they've got some massive issues (say Martin for example) which would be a big risk for Melbourne.
3) A player where the other club is happy to do a deal so they're likely to be a significantly worse player than what pick 2 will be.

Apart from situation 1, which is incredibly unlikely, there's simply no value in trading pick 2 for a single player. Much better to get a young, talented but still unproven player along with downgrading your pick somewhat to give yourself 2 bites at the cherry rather than going for the 1 big signing.

 

[Footy Smarts]

In what universe are Roughead and Naitanui not out and out stars?

Would you give up Wingard for either? Boak? Hartlett? Would you give up any of these for a random player from that list? I definitely wouldn't.

I didn't say they weren't stars. I said they weren't "out and out stars who have produced consistent long-term careers". Natanui could be a superstar. He's not there yet and has only produced in patches. Roughead until this year was no star. Good player who had a very good year in 08 (as the #2 forward) but not top 50 in the comp otherwise. He's massively stepped up this year but again it's unknown whether he can become a long-term star.

 

[CWaffles]

That's not really that impressive. Sure you get a good player from pick 2 normally but how many of them are out and out stars who have produced consistent long-term careers? Only Cotchin looks to be that type of player (ignoring the last few years where it's too early to judge) while most of the others have produced some great years but also a fair bit of disappointment.

Looking at that there's no way a club is going to trade a proven 21-24 year old who's a top quality midfielder. No way you get a Fyfe, Dagerfield, Beams type. Either you get a good but not great player or you get a potential star who has some other major issues (off-field or injuries). You're much better either keeping pick 2 or downgrading your pick for a developing player who's yet to really break through (Adams + pick 9 for example).

I just mentioned this on our board, even if not for Adams but another player who still needs to develop who has the potential to be a key player in our midfield and look at someone like Freeman or Sheed with a slightly later pick, gives us 2 younger mids to work with.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

The tables have actually turned.

People thinking a high draft pick actually buys 2 quality young players (eg Rockliff and Redden) or a quality young player and a fairly high first. (Eg Shuey and 6, Ziebell and 9) have replaced those offering 3 spuds or an average player plus a 2nd rounder.

Draft picks have become massively overvalued. Asking for a player that has shown far more than former pick 2 Jack Trengove, plus an additional top 10 pick is absolutely laughable.

How about, for the purposes of this thread, we pretend that the careers Andrew Walker or Daniel Wells are being traded for. Pretty good, you'd be happy to have them, but not worth selling the farm for. Sidebottom is about right.

I completely disagree, these days the draft is ranked and rated even higher then ever before. The competition is more even than it's ever been in the games history, getting your hands around an early pick is huge to any clubs success, I really don't think I need to go through examples of this, just about every team besides Geelong to recently win a premiership has a very good player they picked up very early in the draft who contributed massively. The way I see it with pick 1 and 2 is that baring freakishly bad luck with injuries, your pretty much guaranteed a very good player at minimum.

I think two A grade 23-25 year olds for a very good player at minimum, possibly elite for 10-12 years is very much spot on the money.

 

[iBeng]

Had a weird dream the other night that Brisbane traded Rockliff+7 for 2+Hogan.

Weird.