Prediction Pick 24

[Pure_Ownage]

They are also very hit and miss - even at the top of the draft (Gumbleton and Thorpe as an example). It just makes sense to pay a premium price for a KPP, that is more of a known quantity, through a trade once a critical need arises. Picking a KPP with our pick 24 is a waste IMO because at that point in the draft they become much more speculative (almost as much chance of having success with a KPP in the 3rd/4th rounds). For that reason I think we'll go best available mid/hbf with our first 2 picks.

The problem with this idea is as kpf are so valuable clubs contract them long term and when they are available for trade you are competing with a heap of other clubs. You watch how many bid for 2MP if he leaves GC next year. So its not as simple as saying trade one in-you often dont have the currency. I wonder how many people who just want to trade in a top end kpf are happy to trade guthrie and duncan as thats realistically the sort of cost you are looking at. It is easier to try and draft one.

 

[nananana catman]

Agreed that he's one of the exceptions to the rule, but since your statement was absolute I thought it was valid to mention him.

I said they'd 'most likely be a waste of time'....

I stand by that. It allows for exceptions to the rule, which there are a couple of.

 

[Catsnlakers]

I would be looking to find the fastest run down and pressure player left in the draft ( not quite sure on the names ) Varcoe was by no means a star but some of his work in that area helped us alot. If that type of player is basically unavailable then we should pick up the best remaining key backman, as domsy and harry will both be gone within 3 years you would think.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

We have addressed the running HB with 2E , that leaves a KPF and an outside mid as the obvious gaps
I like the sound of Battle if he's still there , if not , hopefully Witherden lasts till then and we pick up a pacy outside mid

 

[BigCat1]

Please dont pick a KF or back with a Pick over 20.

Key Fwds picked below 20. Tom Lynch, Roughhead, Franklin, Kennedy, Dixon, Pavlich, Reiwoldt X2, Hawkins & Daniher (would have been), Hogan, Cameron, Patton, Moore.

Tex Walker is about the only decent fwd I can think of. Maybe Ben Brown and Tippett

Same with the Backs: Rance, Taylor, Davis, Talia, Trengrove, Frawley, Henderson etc

 

[The Unforgiven]

I said they'd 'most likely be a waste of time'....

I stand by that. It allows for exceptions to the rule, which there are a couple of.

Yeah, fair enough. Let's just hope that if we do go for a KPF, he's one of the exceptions.

 

[Lager]

Wouldn't that be your job to do?

Too much work - which pretty much proves my point

 

[Lager]

The problem with this idea is as kpf are so valuable clubs contract them long term and when they are available for trade you are competing with a heap of other clubs. You watch how many bid for 2MP if he leaves GC next year. So its not as simple as saying trade one in-you often dont have the currency. I wonder how many people who just want to trade in a top end kpf are happy to trade guthrie and duncan as thats realistically the sort of cost you are looking at. It is easier to try and draft one.

True, but you need to be at the pointy end of the draft to get one. You either finish down the ladder, or you pay the price.
From my perspective, hypothetically, if we had say pick 3 in a draft. I would prefer to trade that pick 3, plus a higher end midfield talent, for a known quantity KPF rather than draft in an unknown. That is my opinion.
But it also depends on whether you want instant impact, or you are rebuilding via the draft. Both different beasts as we know.

 

[ChookNorris]

More I read the more certain I am it will be Witherden. injury history, slight gamble. Versatile, perfect wells pick.

 

[David the Cat]

More I read the more certain I am it will be Witherden. injury history, slight gamble. Versatile, perfect wells pick.

Changing your choice Chook?

 

[ChookNorris]

Changing your choice Chook?

Yeah I think so. Jumped the gun. Also the more I read about the KPF depth in next years draft the more I think our boys won't feel obligated to grab on this with 24.

 

[Lager]

The 35% is an approximate for all types of players. I give an approximate since it changes depending on where you put the cut off, what drafts you include and what criteria you use for success. (I generally start from 1997 the year with the first rookie draft, at the moment I go until 2004 since most of the players drafted then who will go on to play 200 games have played that much). In those 8 years of guys drafted between 21 and 30, 33.8% played 100 games, 25% played 150 games and 15% player 200 games.

I haven't done the leg work for matching picks with position, something I'll do in the summer (it's going to be fun to track down what position of guys who was drafted back in 1997 with a pick in 70s who played no games at AFL level).

I'm hoping that someone who making the claim that drafting a KPF with a pick in the mid 20s is low percentage effort will do the actual leg work to prove their claim. If they find the pass rate to be significantly less than 35% then they might be on to something.

Nice work - It'll be interesting to see the results.

 

[Boxhead_31]

Yeah I think so. Jumped the gun. Also the more I read about the KPF depth in next years draft the more I think our boys won't feel obligated to grab on this with 24.

will be interesting to see who's first round pick we end up with next year and what we have to give up to get it

 

[GHS33]

The problem with this idea is as kpf are so valuable clubs contract them long term and when they are available for trade you are competing with a heap of other clubs.

Freo got a couple of KPFs this year relatively cheaply.

 

[Turbocat]

True, but you need to be at the pointy end of the draft to get one. You either finish down the ladder, or you pay the price.
From my perspective, hypothetically, if we had say pick 3 in a draft. I would prefer to trade that pick 3, plus a higher end midfield talent, for a known quantity KPF rather than draft in an unknown. That is my opinion.
But it also depends on whether you want instant impact, or you are rebuilding via the draft. Both different beasts as we know.

I think FA changes it a bit and just going for a player in system is not always risk free either. How much would you pay for Hawkins at his time and place? A FA KPP will almost certainly be a little bruised and battered.

P3 will almost certain gather a quality tall next year.. no way id trade it ... but I can relate to your mindset. Would you trade an R1 and a future R1 for Tom Lynch GC? Yes and most probably would. So competing for an out of contract gun forward like him .. id say you best set yourself for a cross between a Danger and Boyd contract. Mean while P3 starts out at rate works up.

Kerr or Sproule would not exclude us from getting a gun player sometime in the future.. the trading of our R1 might...

 

[GHS33]

I've been reading a little about Jordan Ridley (192cm Utility) - sounds as much like the 'Wells Special' as anyone.

http://footyprophet.com/2016-draft-profile-jordan-ridley/

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/...s/news-story/6cc14e3d47bd75b69405c2a5194c1df0

Jordan Ridley had been identified as a player of interest by the Chargers after growing 20cm from age 14 to 16... the Box Hill High School student made an immediate impact forward by kicking 14 goals in his first five games, including a six-goal haul against Queensland.

... it wasn’t until the Elimination Final against Calder that he produced his breakout moment. In a roaming role behind the ball, Ridley gathered 28 possessions, 12 marks and disposed of the ball at 93% efficiency.

He also came first in the kicking test at the combine:

Kicking test (score out of a possible 30)
Jordan Ridley (27)
Isaac Cumming (26)
Jarrod Berry (25)
Ben Long (25)
Sam Walker (25)
Josh Williams (25)
Ben Jarman (24)
Tom Williamson (24)
Dylan Clarke (24)
Kym LeBois (23)
Willem Drew (23)
Josh Battle (23)
Jake Waterman (23)

 

[Turbocat]

I've been reading a little about Jordan Ridley (192cm Utility) - sounds as much like the 'Wells Special' as anyone.

http://footyprophet.com/2016-draft-profile-jordan-ridley/

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/...s/news-story/6cc14e3d47bd75b69405c2a5194c1df0





He also came first in the kicking test at the combine:

Kicking test (score out of a possible 30)
Jordan Ridley (27)
Isaac Cumming (26)
Jarrod Berry (25)
Ben Long (25)
Sam Walker (25)
Josh Williams (25)
Ben Jarman (24)
Tom Williamson (24)
Dylan Clarke (24)
Kym LeBois (23)
Willem Drew (23)
Josh Battle (23)
Jake Waterman (23)

Have liked Ridley for a while.. be gone by 40 Id say

 

[GHS33]

Have liked Ridley for a while.. be gone by 40 Id say

Wells usually reaches with his first pick - and after academy bids I think our first will fall 26-27. I can see him using that pick on Ridley.

 

[Hoooops]

He also came first in the kicking test at the combine:

Kicking test (score out of a possible 30)
Jordan Ridley (27)
Isaac Cumming (26)
Jarrod Berry (25)
Ben Long (25)
Sam Walker (25)
Josh Williams (25)
Ben Jarman (24)
Tom Williamson (24)
Dylan Clarke (24)
Kym LeBois (23)
Willem Drew (23)
Josh Battle (23)
Jake Waterman (23)

Cockatoo got 29/30, has a DE of 64% at AFL level.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Freo got a couple of KPFs this year relatively cheaply.

Lets be realistic they got mccarthy cheap because of his 'issues'-they had 2 first rounders on the table for him last year and kersten is a third tall. Genuuine full size kpfs are very very expensive in terms of trade price.

 

[GHS33]

Cockatoo got 29/30, has a DE of 64% at AFL level.

I believe the testing has transformed since then.

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

I would be looking to find the fastest run down and pressure player left in the draft ( not quite sure on the names ) Varcoe was by no means a star but some of his work in that area helped us alot. If that type of player is basically unavailable then we should pick up the best remaining key backman, as domsy and harry will both be gone within 3 years you would think.

Agree that having some players with more tackling intent and aggression is needed. Surely that can be trained into existing players. One player we could draft late or rookie is Atkins from Cats VFL team. He is a great tackler and could develop into a good player.
Tuohy will help with this in there backline

 

[strauchnyy]

Not expecting much with this pick to be honest, it's in a spot where the top talent will no longer be there and in a even range where it doesn't matter if it's 24 or 34, you've probably got a less than 50% chance of getting a player.

Great we traded one of our better players for this pick *rolls eyes

Anyway my hope is that someone unexpected falls like a witherden, Hayward or logue. But that's unlikely.

I'd go scharenberg because he's the least risky and there's not much else that excites me in this range.

Kerr and battle don't look anything decent and look like busts to me... and are overrated by the fact there aren't many good tall players.

 

[Two Planks]

Great we traded one of our better players for this pick *rolls eyes

Surely your not talking about the one paced midfielder we sent to to the tigers. He would be lucky to be in our best 12 players.

 

[bloodygoose]

Surely your not talking about the one paced midfielder we sent to to the tigers. He would be lucky to be in our best 12 players.

Even by your mean spirited assessment Caddy was better than pick 24. He has the same pace as when Wells recruited him with a first round pick and he has improved as a player.