Pick 27

Bard · Nov 21, 2015

I'm predicting lightsabers, death and a lot of flying spaceships shaped like various objects you might find in a kitchen.

mike123 said:
Han Solo is going to be the mentor like Obi-Wan was then die, then Luke Skywalker is going to be the Yoda-like super mentor, anyways that's what I'm predicting.

HFF · Nov 21, 2015

Rioli @ 27.....creamed.

Crazy Tails · Nov 21, 2015

unplugged said:
I'm settling on my final prediction that we will bid on Dunkley and Sydney won't match.

I wish it was possible to put money on the draft.

Interesting. Based on a hunch or mail?

I must admit I hadn't really had a good look at him due to the Sydney link but he could be as good a pick as any at 27. Good height for a modern day mid (189cm) and already has an AFL ready physique having played senior footy in Gippsland. To me he looks and sounds a lot like Luke Parker (who went 40 plus in his draft year) who I am a big fan of. For those that can remember his old man's kicking style it is his nowhere near as awkward but Josh's is definitely not textbook either.

Listening to his draft wrap video he has spent a lot of time at Richmond in preparation for the draft (so they might be keen) but I also found it interesting that he said he trained with Pendles (fellow Sale boy) over the last off season. Just like the close Treloar link I wonder if our illustrious leader might have gotten into our recruitment dept's ear about him.

Probably a moot point though as I would think the Swans would match though wouldn't they? They should still have enough points (after Mills) to still get him with some junk picks.

Apex36 · Nov 21, 2015

Tails1 said:
Interesting. Based on a hunch or mail?

I must admit I hadn't really had a good look at him due to the Sydney link but he could be as good a pick as any at 27. Good height for a modern day mid (189cm) and already has an AFL ready physique having played senior footy in Gippsland. To me he looks and sounds a lot like Luke Parker (who went 40 plus in his draft year) who I am a big fan of. For those that can remember his old man's kicking style it is his nowhere near as awkward but Josh's is definitely not textbook either.

Listening to his draft wrap video he has spent a lot of time at Richmond in preparation for the draft (so they might be keen) but I also found it interesting that he said he trained with Pendles (fellow Sale boy) over the last off season. Just like the close Treloar link I wonder if our illustrious leader might have gotten into our recruitment dept's ear about him.

Probably a moot point though as I would think the Swans would match though wouldn't they? They should still have enough points (after Mills) to still get him with some junk picks.

From what I've heard if Mills goes at 3 then they'll struggle to match anything under pick 30.

Crazy Tails · Nov 21, 2015

Apex36 said:
From what I've heard if Mills goes at 3 then they'll struggle to match anything under pick 30.

MyManLynch · Nov 21, 2015

Apex36 said:
From what I've heard if Mills goes at 3 then they'll struggle to match anything under pick 30.

Correct, if Mills went for pick 3 (2234 points less 20% =1788 points).
Sydney have a total of 2198 points.
So after bidding for pick 3 they only have 410 points remaining.
So they could only match a bid for pick 36 (502 points less discount).

Hardas · Nov 21, 2015

Apex36 said:
From what I've heard if Mills goes at 3 then they'll struggle to match anything under pick 30.

Surely they would've given him some certainty before he nominated them - maybe not a guarantee, but you'd think they will find a way.

Apex36 · Nov 21, 2015

Hardas said:
Surely they would've given him some certainty before he nominated them - maybe not a guarantee, but you'd think they will find a way.

It will either be go in to deficit or pass. There is a rumour going around that Sydney have agreed with him they will pass if a Victorian team bids on him, but if another interstate team bids they will take him and go in to deficit next year. Word is if he has to leave Victoria the only place he wants to go is Sydney. This gives him certainty.

Of course, it could just be a baseless rumour, given the implications of draft tampering etc...

MyManLynch · Nov 21, 2015

Hardas said:
Surely they would've given him some certainty before he nominated them - maybe not a guarantee, but you'd think they will find a way.

It's out of their control.
As Apex36 mentioned, if Melbourne nominate Mills with their pick 3 & Sydney match (which they will), then they won't have enough points to match bids for Dunkley.
So all they can tell Dunkley is "we intend to select you/ match any bid, if we can".
However if Mills slides to pick 5 before being nominated, then they will have enough points, so can most likely match bids for Dunkley & secure him.

MyManLynch · Nov 21, 2015

MyManLynch said:
It's out of their control.
As Apex36 mentioned, if Melbourne nominate Mills with their pick 3 & Sydney match (which they will), then they won't have enough points to match bids for Dunkley.
So all they can tell Dunkley is "we intend to select you/ match any bid, if we can".
However if Mills slides to pick 5 before being nominated, then they will have enough points, so can most likely match bids for Dunkley & secure him.

Further to that, if Essendon are keen on Dunkley then they can land him.
They have picks 4, 5, 24 & 25.
They simply bid pick 4 for Mills...Sydney will match.
Then, when their pick 24 comes up, they bid for Dunkley...Sydney will not have enough points to match, hence Dunkley is a Bomber. Totally out of Sydney's hands.

Matt_352 · Nov 21, 2015

HFF said:
Rioli @ 27.....creamed.

AmellyPies · Nov 21, 2015

Dunkley is very slow. Average. Rather not.

Bay Pie · Nov 21, 2015

Swans will go into deficit for Dunkley if needed. Given he's likely to attract a 2nd round bid, Swans will just get pushed back a few spots in the 2016 ND 2nd round. No big deal really. I'd want us to do it if in the same position.

With the players estimated to be available around our pick, I'd think we are going to get a decent injection of pace.

Baltimore Jack · Nov 21, 2015

MyManLynch said:
It's out of their control.
As Apex36 mentioned, if Melbourne nominate Mills with their pick 3 & Sydney match (which they will), then they won't have enough points to match bids for Dunkley.
So all they can tell Dunkley is "we intend to select you/ match any bid, if we can".
However if Mills slides to pick 5 before being nominated, then they will have enough points, so can most likely match bids for Dunkley & secure him.

Can they go into deficit for 2016?

MyManLynch · Nov 21, 2015

Bay Pie said:
Swans will go into deficit for Dunkley if needed. Given he's likely to attract a 2nd round bid, Swans will just get pushed back a few spots in the 2016 ND 2nd round. No big deal really. I'd want us to do it if in the same position.

With the players estimated to be available around our pick, I'd think we are going to get a decent injection of pace.

Good point. I'm just not 100% sure on how much you can dip into the future points?

Ps don't waste your 10,000 post on me...

MyManLynch · Nov 21, 2015

Baltimore Jack said:
Can they go into deficit for 2016?

Apparently you can...but there are rules governing this.
Not sure how many future points you can commit...there must be a formula (probably a complicated one).

AmellyPies · Nov 21, 2015

Brayden Fiorini is the man Pies want.

TradeDraft · Nov 21, 2015

COLLINGWOOD: The Magpies want booming left-footer Brayden Fiorini to fall to their first pick but are aware the Kangas might pounce a selection earlier. Albany’s Declan Mountford — a popular kid with scouts — is also on the club’s wish list

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...s/news-story/795f0ca07a3d301f5a9c4be27a914073

ksardog · Nov 21, 2015

TradeDraft said:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...s/news-story/795f0ca07a3d301f5a9c4be27a914073

Just going by the video.
Fiorini is a beautiful kick to a leading forward, allowing the forward to run onto the ball instead of getting drilled with it. Clean on both sides of the body too

The Dawes · Nov 21, 2015

AmellyPies said:
Brayden Fiorini is the man Pies want.

Based on the dreaded highlights video - I tend to agree.

Looks classy.

unplugged · Nov 21, 2015

Tails1 said:
Interesting. Based on a hunch or mail?

I must admit I hadn't really had a good look at him due to the Sydney link but he could be as good a pick as any at 27. Good height for a modern day mid (189cm) and already has an AFL ready physique having played senior footy in Gippsland. To me he looks and sounds a lot like Luke Parker (who went 40 plus in his draft year) who I am a big fan of. For those that can remember his old man's kicking style it is his nowhere near as awkward but Josh's is definitely not textbook either.

Listening to his draft wrap video he has spent a lot of time at Richmond in preparation for the draft (so they might be keen) but I also found it interesting that he said he trained with Pendles (fellow Sale boy) over the last off season. Just like the close Treloar link I wonder if our illustrious leader might have gotten into our recruitment dept's ear about him.

Probably a moot point though as I would think the Swans would match though wouldn't they? They should still have enough points (after Mills) to still get him with some junk picks.

Just a hunch but it makes sense for mine. Not that Sydney don't want him, but I get the impression he wants to stay in Melbourne.

Could be a case of Sydney saying look, if a Melbourne team bids on you, we won't match. If anyone else bids, we'll match, stop you from going somewhere you don't want to go, and try and convince you to stay.

The Pendles thing, the draft range, the Dom Milesi following him on Twitter. I dunno. Enough for my prediction...

TradeDraft · Nov 21, 2015

unplugged said:
Just a hunch but it makes sense for mine. Not that Sydney don't want him, but I get the impression he wants to stay in Melbourne.

Could be a case of Sydney saying look, if a Melbourne team bids on you, we won't match. If anyone else bids, we'll match, stop you from going somewhere you don't want to go, and try and convince you to stay.

The Pendles thing, the draft range, the Dom Milesi following him on Twitter. I dunno. Enough for my prediction...

Brett Anderson said samething last night

unplugged · Nov 21, 2015

TradeDraft said:
Brett Anderson said samething last night

Only worry would be a non-Vic team nominating him with a top 20 pick or something.

Then again, if he's available at our pick and we don't even bid on him, I'll trust our team knows what they're doing.

popin · Nov 21, 2015

phantom draft's should be up tomorrow night from the-age and hearaldsun so it should be interesting to see different name's thrown up.

TradeDraft · Nov 22, 2015

popin said:
phantom draft's should be up tomorrow night from the-age and hearaldsun so it should be interesting to see different name's thrown up.

They come out Monday from Cal Twomey about Midday and then Papers will have there's that night

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