Pick 4 on the table?

[eth-dog]

Dogs really offering 10, 17 and F1 for 4? That’s such a bad deal for them, 17 and F1 to move 6 spots up.

Pick 4 and Croft.

A better deal for them would be pick 10 and 17 to Geelong (who only have one pick in the top 80) for 7 and F2

Pick 7, Croft, keep F1 and add F2

They also get points to match Croft. And with pick 5 they get a chance at the top echelon rather than middle.

 

[Sphynx]

Dogs really offering 10, 17 and F1 for 4? That’s such a bad deal for them, 17 and F1 to move 6 spots up.

Pick 4 and Croft.

A better deal for them would be pick 10 and 17 to Geelong (who only have one pick in the top 80) for 7 and F2

Pick 7, Croft, keep F1 and add F2

I agree, it seems they are burning capital when they should be auctioning/banking it like GC are doing.

They might have a net loss of 3 R1 picks doing what they are doing imo.

GC might walk away with 4 or 5 x first round picks for Pick 4, once they auction off Pick 10.

Pick 10 & 17 aren't pick 4, but the Dogs could still easily turn those into 3 future R1 picks.

They could take Croft with junk points & have 4 x R1 picks in 2024 (a chance to rejuvenate an aging midfield in a midfield heavy draft)

vs

Watson (if he's even available) & Croft.

 

[perplexed]

They also get points to match Croft. And with pick 5 they get a chance at the top echelon rather than middle.

They've already got points for Croft and their F1 isn't worth the difference between 5 and 7. The deal is nuts for them.

 

[Blackas87]

They also get points to match Croft. And with pick 5 they get a chance at the top echelon rather than middle.

Points from Gold Coast? Don’t the suns need points?

Suns pick and Geelong’s pick are 3 pick difference. Top echelon like Josh Schache at pick 2 meanwhile middle level player like Charlie Curnow at pick 12? The draft does not end up an exact order of how the players careers will turn out. They’re given up an F1 that potentially could be top just to 3 spots better this year?

 

[Foxman98]

Points from Gold Coast? Don’t the suns need points?

Suns pick and Geelong’s pick are 3 pick difference. Top echelon like Josh Schache at pick 2 meanwhile middle level player like Charlie Curnow at pick 12? The draft does not end up an exact order of how the players careers will turn out. They’re given up an F1 that potentially could be top just to 3 spots better this year?

Suns will on trade pick 10 or 17 for more points

 

[eth-dog]

They've already got points for Croft and their F1 isn't worth the difference between 5 and 7. The deal is nuts for them.

5 and 8, and come draft night the difference will be more like 6 and 12, with Croft not guaranteed to not be bid on before Geelong's pick either.

As far as Croft points goes, outside of 10 and 17 they have 37 (read: 41), 64, 67 and 70. Those three probably come in a bit because of Walter and Read probably getting bid on before him but it'll still be around the 700-750 point mark, which is nowhere near enough for a bid on Croft. Pick 29 (32) will cover the Croft bid and perhaps a F2 as well.

Points from Gold Coast? Don’t the suns need points?

Suns pick and Geelong’s pick are 3 pick difference. Top echelon like Josh Schache at pick 2 meanwhile middle level player like Charlie Curnow at pick 12? The draft does not end up an exact order of how the players careers will turn out. They’re given up an F1 that potentially could be top just to 3 spots better this year?

Suns after this trade (5, 32, F2 for 11, 19 and F1) will have 11, 19, 39, 47, 52, 61, 70 and 73. That's approximately 3500 points. If they on trade 11 and 17 (teams like Essendon and Sydney will have quite a few later picks on draft night to move into those first round spots) they'll be able to cover all the bids comfortably.

 

[Blackas87]

5 and 8, and come draft night the difference will be more like 6 and 12, with Croft not guaranteed to not be bid on before Geelong's pick either.

As far as Croft points goes, outside of 10 and 17 they have 37 (read: 41), 64, 67 and 70. Those three probably come in a bit because of Walter and Read probably getting bid on before him but it'll still be around the 700-750 point mark, which is nowhere near enough for a bid on Croft. Pick 29 (32) will cover the Croft bid and perhaps a F2 as well.

Suns after this trade (5, 32, F2 for 11, 19 and F1) will have 11, 19, 39, 47, 52, 61, 70 and 73. That's approximately 3500 points. If they on trade 11 and 17 (teams like Essendon and Sydney will have quite a few later picks on draft night to move into those first round spots) they'll be able to cover all the bids comfortably.

5 and 8, and come draft night the difference will be more like 6 and 12, with Croft not guaranteed to not be bid on before Geelong's pick either.

As far as Croft points goes, outside of 10 and 17 they have 37 (read: 41), 64, 67 and 70. Those three probably come in a bit because of Walter and Read probably getting bid on before him but it'll still be around the 700-750 point mark, which is nowhere near enough for a bid on Croft. Pick 29 (32) will cover the Croft bid and perhaps a F2 as well.

Suns after this trade (5, 32, F2 for 11, 19 and F1) will have 11, 19, 39, 47, 52, 61, 70 and 73. That's approximately 3500 points. If they on trade 11 and 17 (teams like Essendon and Sydney will have quite a few later picks on draft night to move into those first round spots) they'll be able to cover all the bids comfortably.

None of this changes what I originally said, it’s bad deal for the dogs.

Pick 4 and Croft

Or

Pick 7, Croft, keep the F1 and get an F2

Player at 7 could be better the guy at 4

 

[Blackas87]

Suns will on trade pick 10 or 17 for more points

What’s better for you guys?

Pick 4 and Croft

Or

Pick 7, Croft, Keep your F1 and get an F2

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

None of this changes what I originally said, it’s bad deal for the dogs.

Pick 4 and Croft

Or

Pick 7, Croft, keep the F1 and get an F2

Player at 7 could be better the guy at 4

Depends who the Dogs want. If their guy is gone by pick 7 it's a bad deal too.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Suns will on trade pick 10 or 17 for more points

Hopefully getting another F1 in the process.

 

[Foxman98]

Hopefully getting another F1 in the process.

You'll be set easily and it's what we have to do hence it's what is currently the clear favorite deal

 

[eth-dog]

None of this changes what I originally said, it’s bad deal for the dogs.

Pick 4 and Croft

Or

Pick 7, Croft, keep the F1 and get an F2

Player at 7 could be better the guy at 4

Pick 6, F2 and Croft (After McKay and Walter)
Or
Pick 11, Croft and F1 that will definitely be moved back.
Or
Croft and F1

Geelong's pick is no guarantee to be ahead of a Croft bid either. Hence why they probably move up to pick 5/6 instead of Geelong's pick.

Gold Coast's pick guarantees that a bid won't come in for Croft before their first, and the fact is that pick 29 will guarantee that they'll have enough points for Croft.

 

[Blackas87]

Depends who the Dogs want. If their guy is gone by pick 7 it's a bad deal too.

Hopefully their guy next year lasts to the 2nd round

 

[perplexed]

As far as Croft points goes, outside of 10 and 17 they have 37 (read: 41), 64, 67 and 70. Those three probably come in a bit because of Walter and Read probably getting bid on before him but it'll still be around the 700-750 point mark, which is nowhere near enough for a bid on Croft. Pick 29 (32) will cover the Croft bid and perhaps a F2 as well.

Na. Those late picks will all come in enough that with 37 they'll be fine. At worst they'll have to split down 37 or live trade an F3 for more points.

The Dogs should trade just 10 and 17 for future firsts then live trade back in for the next pick or after Croft is bid on. Or just trade 17 and hope for the best with 10 (with a contingency live trade organised).

 

[My_Username]

None of this changes what I originally said, it’s bad deal for the dogs.

Pick 4 and Croft

Or

Pick 7, Croft, keep the F1 and get an F2

Player at 7 could be better the guy at 4

pick 7 and Croft could easily become pick 7 OR Croft if another club bids before that pick (and lets face it, by then it'll probably be pick 9, 10, or maybe 11, so it's likely enough to be a concern).

If that happens, it makes your deal a very bad one. (roughly speaking, it'd be pick 17 for a mid-late F2...Yes there would be more to it, but exactly what that'd be depends on when exactly the bid comes)

Dealing with the Suns is a lot safer in that regard.

 

[eth-dog]

Na. Those late picks will all come in enough that with 37 they'll be fine. At worst they'll have to split down 37 or live trade an F3 for more points.

The Dogs should trade just 10 and 17 for future firsts then live trade back in for the next pick or after Croft is bid on. Or just trade 17 and hope for the best with 10 (with a contingency live trade organised).

Croft will be the third player bid on. They'd need to come in 10 picks to be close to cover it.

 

[perplexed]

Croft will be the third player bid on. They'd need to come in 10 picks to be close to cover it.

Most have Rogers before him, but anyway. I'm assuming Croft will be around 15, where most have him - say 890 points to match.

If third bid on, I guess at picks 39, 59, 62, 66 = 807. Which means moving their F1 back 1 spot if they are mid table.

And anyway if they trade out their F1, why care about going into deficit? If I'm them, I'd much rather have all the future picks and more flexibility than one early pick this year.

 

[My_Username]

Most have Rogers before him, but anyway. I'm assuming Croft will be around 15, where most have him - say 890 points to match.

If third bid on, I guess at picks 39, 59, 62, 66 = 807. Which means moving their F1 back 1 spot if they are mid table.

And anyway if they trade out their F1, why care about going into deficit? If I'm them, I'd much rather have all the future picks and more flexibility than one early pick this year.

So it would basically come down to a choice of pick 5 this year, or a mid (they'd hope late) first rounder next year?

 

[Jibroni]

I think Reid is clearly worth more than Oliver. Oliver is a superstar but is clearly coming with serious baggage at nearly 27. Would you rather 12-15 years of Reid or 5 years of Oliver?

We dont know how good Reid is going to be, were making assumptions on someone who has never played AFL?

 

[perplexed]

So it would basically come down to a choice of pick 5 this year, or a mid (they'd hope late) first rounder next year?

No, a choice of Pick 5 this year or three first rounders next year.

 

[hawkinoz]

They also get points to match Croft. And with pick 5 they get a chance at the top echelon rather than middle.

They have 37, 64, 67, 70 that amounts to about 600-700 points.

After the bid matches for 2 or 3 of Suns picks these picks will gain 50-100 points each. So they should have close to 900 points. They can always trade a F2 for one of the 30's or 40's pick or be in deficit by 100 points which has no effect for top 10 picks.

10+17 for 7+f3 from cats sounds better value. They can pick Caddy/ Sullivan etc easily at 7. Maybe even Watson if he slides.

IMO the Hawks F1 for 4+Chol(steak knives on both sides) is the best value in town, even though I am biased, that is the fact( trumped only by North & Eagles F1).

This will be apparent after trades are done for Suns players and they have enough points and understand it is ok to be be defict by a bit, especially if the deficit is due to bid matching for Graham around pick 30's( deficit will affect only 2nd or 3rd round onwards)

Other clubs fans gaging on dogs to offer 10+17+f1 to Suns is because they then want to pick the 10 & 17 off Suns hands. They don't have dogs interests at heart even a wee bit there.

 

[eth-dog]

They have 37, 64, 67, 70 that amounts to about 600-700 points.

After the bid matches for 2 or 3 of Suns picks these picks will gain 50-100 points each. So they should have close to 900 points. They can always trade a F2 for one of the 30's or 40's pick or be in deficit by 100 points which has no effect for top 10 picks.

10+17 for 7+f3 from cats sounds better value. They can pick Caddy/ Sullivan etc easily at 7. Maybe even Watson if he slides.

IMO the Hawks F1 for 4+Chol(steak knives on both sides) is the best value in town, even though I am biased, that is the fact( trumped only by North & Eagles F1).

This will be apparent after trades are done for Suns players and they have enough points and understand it is ok to be be defict by a bit, especially if the deficit is due to bid matching for Graham around pick 30's( deficit will affect only 2nd or 3rd round onwards)

Other clubs fans gaging on dogs to offer 10+17+f1 to Suns is because they then want to pick the 10 & 17 off Suns hands. They don't have dogs interests at heart even a wee bit there.

You're right, that is biased.

Dogs have the best offer on the table.

 

[sydney_gws]

Most have Rogers before him, but anyway. I'm assuming Croft will be around 15, where most have him - say 890 points to match.

If third bid on, I guess at picks 39, 59, 62, 66 = 807. Which means moving their F1 back 1 spot if they are mid table.

And anyway if they trade out their F1, why care about going into deficit? If I'm them, I'd much rather have all the future picks and more flexibility than one early pick this year.

Gws should better it.
Trade 6,2024r3 for 10,2024r1.
Let dogs trade 17,2024r3 for Norths 2024pick19,2024r2.

 

[perplexed]

Gws should better it.
Trade 6,2024r3 for 10,2024r1.
Let dogs trade 17,2024r3 for Norths 2024pick19,2024r2.

It is a little better for the dogs, but not much. I don't see why they would offload their F1 in any of these deals. Surely 10 and 17 get them pick 6, they don't need to do all the other stuff.

 

[Keystone agony]

Ess In: Pick 3, F3 (North)
Ess Out: Pick 9, F1, 27, 47

GC Suns In: Ess F1, 27, 41, 47, 53
GC Suns Out: Pick 5, 62

North In: Pick 5, Pick 9, 62
North Out: Pick 3, 41, F3, 53

Ess Future 1st over dogs

If Suns are less concerned about points

Which may be the case with Rogers likely pushing out, North with 5 and 9 now

Chol
Burgess
Hollands
J.Sharp

All in trade