Analysis Pick 5 - 2018

[Antares]

Shaping up to be the wildcard pick this year. It's currently held by Brisbane, but with Lachie Neale likely to arrive from Fremantle, along with a large array of other trades being touted, pick 5 could end up going to any one of Fremantle, Melbourne, Gold Coast, Adelaide or Port Adelaide.

Who do you think ends up with pick 5?
Who do you think will be selected with it?
Can Izak Rankine slip past this point to reach Port's newly received pick 6?

I think it'll be interesting to watch this space throughout the trade period.

 

[Joao]

Shaping up to be the wildcard pick this year. It's currently held by Brisbane, but with Lachie Neale likely to arrive from Fremantle, along with a large array of other trades being touted, pick 5 could end up going to any one of Fremantle, Melbourne, Gold Coast, Adelaide or Port Adelaide.

Who do you think ends up with pick 5?
Who do you think will be selected with it?
Can Izak Rankine slip past this point to reach Port's newly received pick 6?

I think it'll be interesting to watch this space throughout the trade period.

Who do you think ends up with pick 5? Adelaide
Who do you think will be selected with it? Rankine
Can Izak Rankine slip past this point to reach Port's newly received pick 6? No

 

[rainwizard39]

Heck, if Suns do take Rozee and Luko, saints take King and Crows get the pick and get Rankine, thats all good. Take Bailey Smith and if we trade Wingard to the Dogs for (and extras) pick 7 to take the other King and still have 10 to take Hately.

 

[Suma Magic]

If I’m Brisbane I’d trade it to the club who values it the most. Adelaide. Get 8 back and then freo will be forced to accept 8.

 

[wizzard400]

I think pick 5 will end up at the Gold Coast.

Brisbane: pick 5, 2019 first rounder
Fremantle: Lachie Neale

Fremantle: pick 5, 2019 Brisbane first rounder
Melbourne: Jesse Hogan

Melbourne: pick 5, 2019 Brisbane first rounder
Gold Coast: Steven May

Brisbane gets Lachie Neale
Fremantle gets Jesse Hogan
Melbourne gets Steven May
Gold Coast gets two first round picks

 

[Lachy96]

I think pick 5 will end up at the Gold Coast.

Brisbane: pick 5, 2019 first rounder
Fremantle: Lachie Neale

Fremantle: pick 5, 2019 Brisbane first rounder
Melbourne: Jesse Hogan

Melbourne: pick 5, 2019 Brisbane first rounder
Gold Coast: Steven May

Brisbane gets Lachie Neale
Fremantle gets Jesse Hogan
Melbourne gets Steven May
Gold Coast gets two first round picks

Id suggest melbourne hold onto that 2019 1st. May for 5 is a fair deal.

 

[blitzer]

I reckon whoever ends up with pick 5 will be willing to do a trade with Adelaide involving upgrading their pick 8. Adelaide will pay a premium for the jump and I don't think most of the non SA clubs will put such a high premium on getting Rankine.

 

[ep2018]

Adelaide you'd think. A possible three way trade scenario:

Freo lose Neale, gains picks 13 and 16
Brisbane lose pick 5, gains Neale
Adelaide lose picks 13 and 16, gains pick 5

 

[Peel67skin]

Who do you think ends up with pick 5?
Adelaide , after the transfer window
GC , Live draft trading

Who do you think will be selected with it? Rozee

Can Izak Rankine slip past this point to reach Port's newly received pick 6? No

 

[Du_key]

Adelaide you'd think. A possible three way trade scenario:

Freo lose Neale, gains picks 13 and 16
Brisbane lose pick 5, gains Neale
Adelaide lose picks 13 and 16, gains pick 5

Beauty of this trade is it actually doesn't need to be a three-way trade. Brisbane 5 for Crows 13, 16 - and then the Lions and Freo can figure out the details later.

 

[GroggSquad]

If I’m Brisbane I’d trade it to the club who values it the most. Adelaide. Get 8 back and then freo will be forced to accept 8.

If Port is smart, they would've made an agreement with Freo during their pick swap to demand Pick 5 be involved in any deal for Neale - otherwise Freo walk away from negotiations and hold Neale to his contract. This keeps Adelaide out of the picture for Port.

Freo can still potentially turn Pick 11 & a future 1st into Hogan without using Pick 5 anyway.
Freo can also turn Picks 23 and/or 30 into Lobb.

Freo will win the trade period if they land Pick 5, Hogan, Lobb and another first rounder in the Neale deal.

 

[Suma Magic]

If Port is smart, they would've made an agreement with Freo during their pick swap to demand Pick 5 be involved in any deal for Neale - otherwise Freo walk away from negotiations and hold Neale to his contract. This keeps Adelaide out of the picture for Port.

Freo can still potentially turn Pick 11 & a future 1st into Hogan without using Pick 5 anyway.
Freo can also turn Picks 23 and/or 30 into Lobb.

Freo will win the trade period if they land Pick 5, Hogan, Lobb and another first rounder in the Neale deal.

Would whoever ends up with 5 select a different player than the crows would though?

 

[GroggSquad]

Would whoever ends up with 5 select a different player than the crows would though?

If Crows got Pick 5 from trading Picks 14 & 15 for example, they could potentially package it with Pick 8 to get Pick 2. Taking Pick 5 out of the equation makes this difficult for them.

Port can then package Pick 6 & 10 to get a Top 3 pick and trump the Crows.

 

[Suma Magic]

If Crows got Pick 5 from trading Picks 14 & 15 for example, they could potentially package it with Pick 7 to get Pick 2. Taking Pick 5 out of the equation makes this difficult for them.

Port can then package Pick 6 & 10 to get a Top 3 pick and trump the Crows.

Potentially.

It feels like a few teams have gone crazy in trying to get into the top 3. Without knowing much about the draft beyond the publicly available articles, it seems like keeping multiple slightly lower picks could lead to a better outcome.

 

[GroggSquad]

Potentially.

It feels like a few teams have gone crazy in trying to get into the top 3. Without knowing much about the draft beyond the publicly available articles, it seems like keeping multiple slightly lower picks could lead to a better outcome.

Lukosius & Rankine have generational superstar potential.

Therefore, it is probably in the best interests of the South Australian clubs to try and secure these guys with a Top 3 pick, build a team around them and not have to deal with the go-home risk that may affect other top selections.

 

[Suma Magic]

Lukosius & Rankine look like potential generational superstars.

Therefore, it is probably in the best interests of the South Australian clubs to try and secure these guys with a Top 3 pick, build a team around them and not have to deal with the go-home risk.

It sounds like a familiar story though. Lots of times the top few picks were going to be huge and then they weren't.

Time will tell.

 

[GroggSquad]

It sounds like a familiar story though. Lots of times the top few picks were going to be huge and then they weren't.

Time will tell.

Hard to disagree with you there.

 

[Jibroni]

I think pick 5 will end up at the Gold Coast.

Brisbane: pick 5, 2019 first rounder
Fremantle: Lachie Neale

Fremantle: pick 5, 2019 Brisbane first rounder
Melbourne: Jesse Hogan

Melbourne: pick 5, 2019 Brisbane first rounder
Gold Coast: Steven May

Brisbane gets Lachie Neale
Fremantle gets Jesse Hogan
Melbourne gets Steven May
Gold Coast gets two first round picks

Brizzy wont give up two 1sts for Neale.

 

[Bearded Clam]

Lukosius & Rankine have generational superstar potential.

Therefore, it is probably in the best interests of the South Australian clubs to try and secure these guys with a Top 3 pick, build a team around them and not have to deal with the go-home risk that may affect other top selections.

Or simply let them go to the Gold Coast and trade for them in two years from now..

Especially knowing Rankine doesn’t want to leave the state and in two years time when JJ and Tex are winding down and their salaries are reduced and a heap of coin can be thrown at Lukosius...

 

[wizzard400]

Brizzy wont give up two 1sts for Neale.

I reckon they will, it's the asking price for elite players nowadays - Lever, Gibbs, O'Meara etc.

 

[Antares]

I reckon they will, it's the asking price for elite players nowadays - Lever, Gibbs, O'Meara etc.

O'Meara was not two first rounders.

Top 6 picks in this draft are premium, and more valuable than any of the draft picks exchanged for those players mentioned. Neale deal will almost certainly involve pick 5.

 

[wizzard400]

O'Meara was not two first rounders.

Top 6 picks in this draft are premium, and more valuable than any of the draft picks exchanged for those players mentioned. Neale deal will almost certainly involve pick 5.

O'Meara was two first round picks, albeit indirectly, one in 2016 (pick 10) and one in 2017 (pick 8).

Neale will involve pick 5 but I don't think draft picks are ever a premium. Proven talent > speculative picks.

 

[Antares]

O'Meara was two first round picks, albeit indirectly, one in 2016 (pick 10) and one in 2017 (pick 8).

Neale will involve pick 5 but I don't think draft picks are ever a premium. Proven talent > speculative picks.

Blatantly wrong. Trading a future first rounder for pick 10 in a separate deal does not equate to two first rounders for O'Meara.

If you actually analyze what Hawthorn gave up for O'Meara, it was their 2017 first rounder, two second rounders and Brad Hill(pick23). As for what Gold Coast received, which is what's actually relevant here, it was pick 10 + Hawthorn's 2017 second rounder.

 

[wizzard400]

Blatantly wrong. Trading a future first rounder for pick 10 in a separate deal does not equate to two first rounders for O'Meara.

If you actually analyze what Hawthorn gave up for O'Meara, it was their 2017 first rounder, two second rounders and Brad Hill(pick23). As for what Gold Coast received, which is what's actually relevant here, it was pick 10 + Hawthorn's 2017 second rounder.

They may not have happened in the same deal, but it's what we gave up to get the trade across, hence why I said 'indirectly'.

 

[theGav56]

Two firsts was still the asking price for Jaeger, and is a typical asking price for a quality, established young player. And Hawthorn certainly tried to meet that. 5 and 18 is a perfectly reasonable trade price for Neale, and there don't seem to be any impediments to Brisbane finding it. Plenty of time still.