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List Mgmt. Pick 9

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The 3 players I'm keen on so far that have a realistic shot at being available at 9 are Ash, Stephens and Kemp.

Ash seems to be an absolute perfect successor to Simmo. I don't think he'll ever be as good by foot as Simmo, but he still looks good in that area, and oh boy does he love a run. He'll break lines more than Simmo ever did. Reminds me a bit of Yaz when we moved him to half back. My only issue with him is that some of his decision making of when to go on a run and when not to needs some work still, he quite often just runs like a headless chook and then either tries to do too much with the ball, or gets himself in a worse spot than if he just did a regular disposal. The other knock I've seen on him from draft watchers is that apparently he had a run through the midfield at the end of the year and didn't wow anyone, but we would not be needing him in a midfield role if we did pick him up, so this is mostly irrelevant. All in all, Ash would be my no. 1 pick of realistic options since he fills such a need.

Stephens looks like an absolute gem that could unfortunately for us be a bolter due to his unreal disposal, running and cool-headedness. If we picked him the O'Brien - Stephens combo on either wing would be deadly for a decade plus. His workrate and endurance impressed me the most from the footage I saw, he just runs and runs and runs, I saw a play where he was the link up man from defence three or four times before delivering the ball inside 50, he just doesn't stop. He also also shown some chops for an inside game too, definitely not in the Cripps bash and crash mould, but he's so calm in traffic and his timing on his handball releases look really, really solid. My only concern is that, like LOB, he is quite small, so it might take him a while to bulk up and reach his full potential at AFL level.

Kemp could definitely end up being the best player in this draft when it's all said and done, but his knee is a real concern. If all goes to plan and his knee is fine, I see shades of Bont in this kid (and yes, I am aware that comparison has been made 1,000 times). He's a freak of nature with the ball in his hands, his acceleration from a stoppage is unreal for a player his size, add that to his power and huge frame and the Cripps - Kemp duo will make opposing stoppage teams wee themselves every time there's a ball up. He is also super versatile, he can play almost every position really well bar ruck, especially as a tall forward from the footage I saw, due to his size, athleticism, and strong hands. He also stands up in crunch time, kicking multiple goals in the U/18 champs to either win the game, or put Vic Country up late. My only concern from the footage I saw is that most of his highlights seem to happen across a few quarters each game, not evenly spread across all 4, which could mean he's not very consistent across the whole game, but someone more knowledgeable than me could probably say if that's true or not. Oh and the ACL is a huge problem too, but well worth the risk IMO.

Either way, I'd be happy with literally any of these guys, I'm keen to hear what your thoughts are.
 
Is there a realistic chance that Kemp slides to 9? It doesn’t sound like it

There absolutely is, I don't think it's guaranteed, but that ACL is a real concern, so lots of teams will pass. I personally think he'll go before our pick, but it's not set in stone.
 
For those wanting to trade #9 out for a future first, forget it. We would have just taken Gold Coast's offer of 2020 #11 if we wanted to do that. We may trade down slightly, but I cannot see us trading out of the first round.
Good pickup Stamos. I hadn’t realised they’d offered that. It does send a strong signal about our intent. I’d say it seems more likely we’d trade down this year for 2 picks. Perhaps (God help us) with Gold Coast or Geelong.
 

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I've got Adelaide taking Kemp in my Phantom. They like bigger bodied players generally and they got a couple of small players they needed last year. They also develop players well. And because they are now sort of rebuilding, they don't desperately need immediate impact.
Surely they need pace TW?
 
There absolutely is, I don't think it's guaranteed, but that ACL is a real concern, so lots of teams will pass. I personally think he'll go before our pick, but it's not set in stone.
1 & 2 out for GCFC / Rowell & Anderson
3 - MFC (swap with GWS, shouldn’t need with Green?)
4 - Adelaide (are they hoping to downgrade?)
5 - Green/GWS
6 - Sydney
7 - Fremantle (WA?)
8 - MFC
9 - CFC

Rowell, Anderson, Young, Flanders, Green, Serong, Ash, Stephens, Robertson (if FRE go WA).
 
Is there a realistic chance that Kemp slides to 9? It doesn’t sound like it

Reading the opinions on Kemp if he’s there at 9 then he’s the one for me. Don’t care about the ACL, we are in a position now where the likelihood of him getting a game in the seniors is low anyway.

Use 2020 as a year of rehab, and getting games and miles in the legs in the twos with absolutely no pressure on him. Actually develop a draftee for 18 months and then unleash him

Where would he go in the draft without the ACL?
 
Reading the opinions on Kemp if he’s there at 9 then he’s the one for me. Don’t care about the ACL, we are in a position now where the likelihood of him getting a game in the seniors is low anyway.

Use 2020 as a year of rehab, and getting games and miles in the legs in the twos with absolutely no pressure on him. Actually develop a draftee for 18 months and then unleash him

Where would he go in the draft without the ACL?

It depends because we didn't see a full year of him, but before the ACL a lot of people had him 3rd behind Rowell and Anderson, most had him top 5 at least.
 
  1. I'd be surprised if SOS used Pick 9.

Our greatest needs are MATURE PLAYERS & SMALL FORWARD & SMALL DEFENDER

We don't need to use pick 9 for any of these.

2019
  1. split Pick 9 for other high end picks (possible that one of these is 2020 pick)
  2. draft a small forward with pick 15'ish (to be determined when draft order becomes more obvious)
  3. draft small defender with late pick or rookie pick
OR
  1. trade Pick 9 for 2020 picks to be used for mature players
2020
  1. chase FA's and
  2. trade picks for mature players.
 
We're not getting Green whichever way you cut it, so whether our pick is #9 or #10 makes absolutely no difference.
If GWS are forced to use their first on Green, there will be 7 players plus Green selected before our pick. If they select someone else and then match a bid on Green then there will be 8 players plus Green selected before our pick.

Hopefully they don’t manage to trade up.
 
If GWS are forced to use their first on Green, there will be 7 players plus Green selected before our pick. If they select someone else and then match a bid on Green then there will be 8 players plus Green selected before our pick.

Hopefully they don’t manage to trade up.
And it's not as certain as it seems either. Not only do Melbourne drop from getting the third best player to the seventh, their pick 8 drops value from 8th to 9th. That's a 672 draft value drop. Assuming GWS play finals again that first rounder is only adding 300 to 600 points of value or a late second/early third round pick.

And as we know, in the real world there can be a huge difference between pick 3 and pick 7.

I wouldn't do that trade. No way.
 
Yeah, it’s been reported that they are looking at trading pick 6 and future first for pick 3 from Melbourne to avoid this scenario.

Theoretically Dees could say to GWS "give us a sweetheart deal to swap pick 6 for pick 3 - or we will bid on Green at 3".

GWS would have to either let Green go or burn pick 3 on him and get stuck with lots of lower picks they really don't want to use.

Dees would be nuts not to go down this path.
 
Theoretically Dees could say to GWS "give us a sweetheart deal to swap pick 6 for pick 3 - or we will bid on Green at 3".

GWS would have to either let Green go or burn pick 3 on him and get stuck with lots of lower picks they really don't want to use.

Dees would be nuts not to go down this path.
They'd be nuts to do it. GWS have nothing of value.
 

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Really?

If I was Dees I'd offer GWS:

Melb 2019 Pick 3

FOR

GWS 2019 Pick 6
plus GWS 2020 R1 pick.
And it's not as certain as it seems either. Not only do Melbourne drop from getting the third best player to the seventh, their pick 8 drops value from 8th to 9th. That's a 672 draft value drop. Assuming GWS play finals again that first rounder is only adding 300 to 600 points of value or a late second/early third round pick.

And as we know, in the real world there can be a huge difference between pick 3 and pick 7.

I wouldn't do that trade. No way.
 
And it's not as certain as it seems either. Not only do Melbourne drop from getting the third best player to the seventh, their pick 8 drops value from 8th to 9th. That's a 672 draft value drop. Assuming GWS play finals again that first rounder is only adding 300 to 600 points of value or a late second/early third round pick.

And as we know, in the real world there can be a huge difference between pick 3 and pick 7.

I wouldn't do that trade. No way.
Melbourne pretty much have the first “live” pick. If they really rate someone they don’t think will be there at GWS’s pick then I can’t see them doing the trade. GWS have very little to offer now.

If they can’t trade up they may well retreat and trade down for points (which would be bad for us because there would be 8 players plus Green selected before our pick in that case). Trading down would be a terrible outcome for them since gave up quite a lot to get pick 6 in the first place.
 
Melbourne pretty much have the first “live” pick. If they really rate someone they don’t think will be there at GWS’s pick then I can’t see them doing the trade. GWS have very little to offer now.

If they can’t trade up they may well retreat and trade down for points (which would be bad for us because there would be 8 players plus Green selected before our pick in that case). Trading down would be a terrible outcome for them since gave up quite a lot to get pick 6 in the first place.
Yes. Everyone focused on us but the real loser from trade week was GWS. Failed to get a top 4 pick. Failed to get anything for a former 1 pick, pick 11 from two years ago, and a best 22 player. Terrible.
 
Surely they need pace TW?


Kemp has nice pace windows. He's no Tom Green.

The only query for Adelaide imo is of course the knee reco. That is a legitimate reason to be wary of using Pick 4. But i do reckon that they would love to have Kemp, and their current situation lends itself a bit to maybe going for it imo.
 

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Kemp has nice pace windows. He's no Tom Green.

The only query for Adelaide imo is of course the knee reco. That is a legitimate reason to be wary of using Pick 4. But i do reckon that they would love to have Kemp, and their current situation lends itself a bit to maybe going for it imo.
INteresting. Can he kick the thing?
 
If he recovers well from his knee, Kemp will be the best player from this draft.

To me he’s a slightly more outside leaning Cripps. Less production, but more versatile and proficient up forward.

Elite hands, and because of his combination of size and acceleration, very difficult to stop in congestion.
 
  1. I'd be surprised if SOS used Pick 9.

Our greatest needs are MATURE PLAYERS & SMALL FORWARD & SMALL DEFENDER

We don't need to use pick 9 for any of these.

2019
  1. split Pick 9 for other high end picks (possible that one of these is 2020 pick)
  2. draft a small forward with pick 15'ish (to be determined when draft order becomes more obvious)
  3. draft small defender with late pick or rookie pick
OR
  1. trade Pick 9 for 2020 picks to be used for mature players
2020
  1. chase FA's and
  2. trade picks for mature players.

How about this:

Retain pick 9 and use it on the best available prospect.

Trade our 2020 second for a 2019 second and our 2019 + 2020 3rd round selections for another late 2019 second rounder.

Retain our 2020 first for a trade target :)
 
Good pickup Stamos. I hadn’t realised they’d offered that. It does send a strong signal about our intent. I’d say it seems more likely we’d trade down this year for 2 picks. Perhaps (God help us) with Gold Coast or Geelong.
It`s also possible that Port or the Lions may have a player in mind at pick 9 as well...........
 
I'd like to take the pick to the draft. Reckon it is better to work the draft and plug holes with trades.

On another point, something that seems to be missed when draftees are considered is the quality of their marking (and I am not just talking pack marking by big blokes). If you can mark the ball it is a tremendous asset. As long as you have some of the other traits to complement the marking. Think how far Simmo would have gone without his exceptional marking ability.

Unless you start trading out Carlton players you’ll need to use picks to “plug holes with trades”.

They are not mutually exclusive.
 

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