List Mgmt. Pick 9

[KnaveyBlue]

Would Freo consider 9 + 43 for 10 + 22? Effectively paying 393 'points' to stop our inevitable bid on Henry. It's costly, and it still leaves Melbourne in the equation. I think Freo will go very hard for Melbourne's Pick 8 instead.

 

[murphster]

Ok watched it Murphster. He was a lot more impressive than I’d seen in other games. More involved. If that’s ‘typical’ or becomes typical then yes would love to have him.

He just makes smart decisions and his hands are elite just so clean, we would be crazy not to take him as he is exactly what we need to add some bums on seats excitement.

 

[murphster]

Would Freo consider 9 + 43 for 10 + 22? Effectively paying 393 'points' to stop our inevitable bid on Henry. It's costly, and it still leaves Melbourne in the equation. I think Freo will go very hard for Melbourne's Pick 8 instead.

Would be the best result for us out of all the scenarios involving trading pick 9 for 2 picks, could eventuate if we play our hand right and would be the ideal result for us.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Would Freo consider 9 + 43 for 10 + 22? Effectively paying 393 'points' to stop our inevitable bid on Henry. It's costly, and it still leaves Melbourne in the equation. I think Freo will go very hard for Melbourne's Pick 8 instead.

Yes and this is why Bell is a mug. He put his club in a position where they can easily be blackmailed. Freo would be mad not to make that deal if we are going to bid. It could backfire on us though and maybe a situation arises where it’s not worth it to us.

 

[Jimmae]

FWIW - I think MEL bid on Green at 3. He’s the consensus 3rd best player in this draft. That forces GWS hand and they pick him. MEL then go Young. ADE surprise and go local with Stephens. SYD go best player in Flanders. FRE take chance on Jackson. MEL go Ash. We bid on Henry but FRE match. We select Serong. Inside mid who can go forward. Perfect.

Why would Melbourne get both Young and Ash? It's been well known that they are looking for a small forward with one of their picks, so unless they REALLY rate Weightman, I can't see Serong getting past them at 8.

I can't think of a worse scenario for us and about 3 other clubs. I'm well behind others in minutes watched, but I don't even rate Serong and Flanders as top 10 material at the moment. Young is another who is patchy for me in terms of true positional play, but his kicking is exceptional.

How many picks will we use, given Martin taking a spot via PSD + Newens?
Might not need 43+ if we split & trade

Up to 4 national draft picks, with 1 rookie pick. It's also possible we want to leave a rookie list spot open for the mid-season draft or a pre-season signing, but I'd hope we learnt our lesson after last time, and sidestep that entirely. If we get a season-ending injury before round 10, so be it, but otherwise just get some talent in the door and develop them.

With some shrewd pick trading, there's more than enough talent on offer to entice us into taking 4 selections.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Yes and this is why Bell is a mug. He put his club in a position where they can easily be blackmailed. Freo would be mad not to make that deal if we are going to bid. It could backfire on us though and maybe a situation arises where it’s not worth it to us.

How did he "put his club" in that position?

 

[ferrisb]

I know this is not the strongest draft, but I can see Kemp sliding to our pick 9 or beyond.

Jake Lever captained Vic in his underage year, was touted as a future top 3 pick. Missed his entire draft year with an ACL and went pick 14. In fact, Adelaide were so sure Lever would last that they traded down from pick 10 to pick 14 before the draft.

Ryan Burton was touted as a future #1 pick. Kicked 5 goals in his first champs match as an underager. Got glandular fever and badly broke his leg. Lasted til pick 19.

Each of these players had a full year of recovery behind them by the time they were drafted. Although on the flip side, they had no draft year performance to assess.

TL,DR: Not sure that Kemp goes top 10...

 

[DangerousD]

I know this is not the strongest draft, but I can see Kemp sliding to our pick 9 or beyond.

Jake Lever captained Vic in his underage year, was touted as a future top 3 pick. Missed his entire draft year with an ACL and went pick 14. In fact, Adelaide were so sure Level would last that they traded down from pick 10 to pick 14 before the draft.

Ryan Burton was touted as a future #1 pick. Kicked 5 goals in his first champs match as an underager. Got glandular fever and badly broke his leg. Lasted til pick 19.

Each of these players had a full year of recovery behind them by the time they were drafted. Although on the flip side, they had no draft year performance to assess.

TL,DR: Not sure that Kemp goes top 10...

Side note. Lever re-injured his ACL in 2018 and effectively lost 2 seasons of footy, we will see what type of player he comes back as.
I’m way too sceptical about recruiting a big bodied kid who has done an ACL, especially considering what we have gone through with Kruz and Doc in the past.

 

[windows1]

I know this is not the strongest draft, but I can see Kemp sliding to our pick 9 or beyond.

Jake Lever captained Vic in his underage year, was touted as a future top 3 pick. Missed his entire draft year with an ACL and went pick 14. In fact, Adelaide were so sure Level would last that they traded down from pick 10 to pick 14 before the draft.

Ryan Burton was touted as a future #1 pick. Kicked 5 goals in his first champs match as an underager. Got glandular fever and badly broke his leg. Lasted til pick 19.

Each of these players had a full year of recovery behind them by the time they were drafted. Although on the flip side, they had no draft year performance to assess.

TL,DR: Not sure that Kemp goes top 10...

Just in terms of expectation Mgt:

Can you please start your posts indicating whether it is a serious post or not?

I find myself not giving you full credit for your excellent analysis because I spend the whole post waiting to laugh....then become disappointed not because of the post itself, but because it didn’t meet my expectations of you.

 

[ferrisb]

Just in terms of expectation Mgt:

Can you please start your posts indicating whether it is a serious post or not?

I find myself not giving you full credit for your excellent analysis because I spend the whole post waiting to laugh....then become disappointed not because of the post itself, but because it didn’t meet my expectations of you.

Nope, I like to leave people guessing.

That way if I try a joke and it falls flat, I can pretend it was a serious post.....

 

[windows1]

Nope, I like to leave people guessing.

That way if I try a joke and it falls flat, I can pretend it was a serious post.....

Which is like the opposite of my strategy....”Dylan Stephens is a weak outside flake”......”just kidding.. hahaha. He’s a two way running mid with neat skills, good decision making and ball use in tight.”

(Looks around. No one comments. Don’t think they noticed. Phew.)

 

[DirkDiggler]

I know this is not the strongest draft, but I can see Kemp sliding to our pick 9 or beyond.

Jake Lever captained Vic in his underage year, was touted as a future top 3 pick. Missed his entire draft year with an ACL and went pick 14. In fact, Adelaide were so sure Level would last that they traded down from pick 10 to pick 14 before the draft.

Ryan Burton was touted as a future #1 pick. Kicked 5 goals in his first champs match as an underager. Got glandular fever and badly broke his leg. Lasted til pick 19.

Each of these players had a full year of recovery behind them by the time they were drafted. Although on the flip side, they had no draft year performance to assess.

TL,DR: Not sure that Kemp goes top 10...

You make a valid point. You only read of Kemp being linked to Carlton. Not sure other clubs will be as keen to invest their first pick for Kemp unless its a club blessed with two first round picks. If SOS thinks he may drop to pick 15 he may gladly trade with GC.

 

[windows1]

Just listened to the Road to the Draft podcast with the Melb Recruiter. My takes:
- they are clearly going to bid on Green if they don’t trade the pick
- he likes 3-4 players at pick 3, which makes me think he will be comfortable that one will be there if they drop to 6
- I’m confident they will trade 3 for 6 and something else
- he said Luke Jackson is def in that group of three to four which means he won’t get past their second pick (8)
- he said Kemp was tracking positively and was in the mix for 8. Was asked about Ash and Serong in same flow and kind of ignored them.

 

[murphster]

Just listened to the Road to the Draft podcast with the Melb Recruiter. My takes:
- they are clearly going to bid on Green if they don’t trade the pick
- he likes 3-4 players at pick 3, which makes me think he will be comfortable that one will be there if they drop to 6
- I’m confident they will trade 3 for 6 and something else
- he said Luke Jackson is def in that group of three to four which means he won’t get past their second pick (8)
- he said Kemp was tracking positively and was in the mix for 8. Was asked about Ash and Serong in same flow and kind of ignored them.

Really!! Cold shouldered Serong and Ash that surprises me, especially with Serong, thought he might be in there sites due to his playing forward as well as mid. Jackson would be a good get for them at 8 can ease him in while Gawn is still going around, did he say anything regarding Young which is who I thought they’d take if they kept 3.

 

[windows1]

He just didn’t leap into them like he did the others. Young yes he said was in consideration for 3.

 

[windows1]

For FB, re Robertson.

Courage personified when it’s his turn. Real workhorse and Mr Perpetual Motion. Always providing an option. Tackles hard. Works hard both ways. Hands ok without being amazing.

My main issues with him are encapsulated in these statistics:

- only 38 percent of his disposals are contested. So he should have time, especially considering he’s ‘nippy enough’ to create space
- yet despite the surprisingly uncontested nature of his game, he only kicks it 41 percent of the time. And when he does it’s slow and short.

He seems to have no faith in his kicking game at all. It really reduces the damage he can create. I can’t work out how he generates score involvements at the next level. Like he gets uncontested ball and doesn’t move it on very fast. He doesn’t really ‘release’ players into space. Like say Cripps does by hand. It’s all safe and slow disposal use for mine. He could be stat conscious (ie: aware of disposal efficiency being important) and therefore has become too safe. Maybe it can be improved a lot at the next level. Worpel certainly fixed his kicking a lot. But I’d rather see it. Ya know? Than ‘hope’ for it. He’s a no for mine at 9/10.

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

Re: D Stephens

Given the prospect that he’s a real chance for us at 9/10 I’ve watched a few of his games now, including an SANFL one.

Firstly the bad: he is a bit weak in the body as I’ve said previously. Isn’t just skinny, is also a bit weak. It no doubt affects his game. A bit. Not that much though.

The rest is good. He’s a super runner. Don’t call him an athlete, call him a runner. The sanfl game I watched showed him in his best light. Just never stopped working from contest to contest. Genuine Oxygen Brother if he joins us. 6 min for 2km. But has pace too. I felt by the end of the year in the sanfl he was using it better than he did at the champs. He was more on the move at stoppages and hit the ball with all his pace.

He’s obviously a good kick. Don’t overstate it. Just good. Not amazing. I’d call it ‘neat’. His right foot is also effective. Hands are clean and solid without being amazing.

He’s a two way player. Runs hard both ways. Tackles reasonably well despite his physical deficiencies. Tackles can be broken maybe more than average. Smothers a lot I noticed. Stays really involved in the game.

The part of his game I hadn’t noticed and made me think differently about him was his decision making and handballing in close. They are excellent. That side of his game coupled with his running and speed make him an excellent first receiver option playing on ball. Loose ball get player also. Not hard ball get.

People call him a ‘winger’ because they stereotype him due to his slight build and strong running. I think playing him there under utilises his pace off the mark and his hands and decision making in close. I think he’s an on baller. The better games I saw of him were in that role too.

I’d be more than happy with him at our pick. I’d now be surprised if he’s actually still there. Has a lot of upside too if he can strengthen up.

Genuine footballer. Knows where it’s going. Knows how to get it. Knows what to do with it.

Sounds like you've changed your tune

 

[windows1]

Sounds like you've changed your tune

Yes I actually decided to watch games instead of taking a view based on highlights. Although to be fair I think I’d seen two of his games. He wasn’t getting a lot of it and I stupidly wrote him off.

Then I remembered. Laverde. I loved his highlights too. But the bloke can’t play. So you’ve got to watch games.

Then I thought I needed to properly look at Stephens, thinking he will be there at ten.

But he won’t be. That’s my call now, based on watching his actual games.

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

Yes I actually decided to watch games instead of taking a view based on highlights. Although to be fair I think I’d seen two of his games. He wasn’t getting a lot of it and I stupidly wrote him off.

Then I remembered. Laverde. I loved his highlights too. But the bloke can’t play. So you’ve got to watch games.

Then I thought I needed to properly look at Stephens, thinking he will be there at ten.

But he won’t be. That’s my call now, based on watching his actual games.

I was also one that got sucked in by Laverde's highlights. We still managed to pick someone worse... But let's not play the 'blaine' game tonight.

Well, darn, who do we pick at 9 then ?

 

[windows1]

I was also one that got sucked in by Laverde's highlights. We still managed to pick someone worse... But let's not play the 'blaine' game tonight.

Well, darn, who do we pick at 9 then ?

Not Robertson. No way. Recruiters have invented a new type if he’s a top 10. Simple example: he just marked the ball in this game I’m re-watching for Ferrisb at about 40 out. He spent 15 seconds looking around at anything but the goals for someone to hand it off to. He’s got NO faith in his kicking at all. He’s too risky for mine. Way too risky.

In regards who we pick:

- optimistically Stephens or Ash have an outside chance of falling to us. Either would be great. Both add run and class.
- realistically Serong or Kemp fall to us. I’d be happy with either.

 

[Pablito]

Yep I'm on the Stephens train. Seems like all he needs to do is pack on a few kgs and he'll play round 1.

 

[GT619]

I was also one that got sucked in by Laverde's highlights. We still managed to pick someone worse... But let's not play the 'blaine' game tonight.

Well, darn, who do we pick at 9 then ?

I know we’re pretty big on kemp. I’m happy with either ash Stephens kemp serong

 

[ABigOlDoofus]

Yep I'm on the Stephens train. Seems like all he needs to do is pack on a few kgs and he'll play round 1.

Dunno about playing round one, but since we actually have an ok side, he can, gasp, develop in the VFL while he puts on some weight. If only we had that luxury with LOB and Dow.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Looks like we’ll get a decent kid at pick 9. Hopefully we keep it.

 

[Pablito]

Dunno about playing round one, but since we actually have an ok side, he can, gasp, develop in the VFL while he puts on some weight. If only we had that luxury with LOB and Dow.

Plays a different role to Dow.

But yeh, would be going up against the likes of lob for a spot.

Also played half the year in the sanfl already.