List Mgmt. Pick 9

[TerryWallet]

Ash is my preferred pick as well but I don't think he will slide as far as pick 9 or 10 to us...k I'm really jealous of Essendon who got in b/f for us with Adam Saad/// and I see Ash as the long-term answer of a like replacement

Have to take notice of a guy named after 2 of my ol mans faves. Jezza and Tiger...bigger the game the better they went.

The field was a stage for Tiger. The bigger the audience the better the performance, was what i was told and saw a bit of it on the telly after the fact.

 

[Pafloyul]

My understanding is that Brisbane have more picks than vacant list spots, which is why they're so keen to consolidate their draft selections.

They currently hold six selections in the first three rounds.

There might be other ways to gain a higher selection than downgrading our first, including:

Trade 1 with Brisbane
Carlton Out: Future 3rd Round (2020)
Carlton In: Pick 52 (2019)

Trade 2 with Hawthorn
Carlton Out: Pick 43 (2019), Pick 52 (2019) & Pick 57 (2019)
Carlton In: Pick 30 (2019)

Assuming bid for Finn Maginness will come before 30.

Benefits for all parties:
1. Brisbane transfer a superfluous pick for future currency.
2. Hawthorn receive draft picks to the value of 806 points for pick 30 valued at 629 points to matching F/S bid.
3. We move up into the second round of the draft.

We lose out big time, we essentially give up next year's third rounder and two other late picks for an upgrade that might land us a player who may still be available at pick 43. We need another pick in the mid rounds, not an upgrade of our second pick.

 

[BluesTragic]

I reckon SOS should call out Blaine Boekhorsts name at #9. Just for one last F.U.

If he was a horse he wouldn’t even be any good for mortadella


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[windows1]

I don't think I care for favourites as much as the players I see to be best for the CFC.
Last year I wanted Walsh but felt we 'needed' Rankine more, so it's not always about one or the other and sometimes it can be one of the same.

The backline is Carltons strong suit and all being well Docherty and Williamson will only add to what we have there.
It could go belly-up as much as it could for Ash sustaining a serious injury and never playing again. You have to be careful for the players that have a history and you never know for those that may yet have a similar or worse history in the future.

In summary I see the backline (all being well) as close to complete.
The forward line though? Eddie Betts' one year isn't going to change everything and as we saw recently; If you think you'll find what you need and when you need it in the trade period.....you may be mistaken.

Well thank **** we drafted Walsh instead of Rankine.

Walsh will be AA in 2020.

I’m regularly reminded that I at one point was keen on 3 and 6 for 1.

DUMB. Not gonna be dumb ever again. I’ve banned myself from it.

Crows would be dumb to trade down wii gwS. Even if they got next year’s first it will be a pick in the 20s. Would be dumb. Don’t do it.

 

[JuddgementDay]

I would certainly bid on Henry but Freo will match.

Kemp I need more convincing on. The ACL worries me.

Yep, throw them all in
Kemp and Webb, together with Charlie... Doc & the condition guys know how to deal with knees issues now - no problemo

 

[HARKER]

Well thank fu** we drafted Walsh instead of Rankine.
Walsh will be AA in 2020.
I’m regularly reminded that I at one point was keen on 3 and 6 for 1.
DUMB. Not gonna be dumb ever again. I’ve banned myself from it.

Crows would be dumb to trade down wii gwS. Even if they got next year’s first it will be a pick in the 20s. Would be dumb. Don’t do it.

Do you actually think that would have been a dumb move?
Rankine & Smith instead of Walsh?

We have Walsh and I wouldn't have it any other way now, but I wouldn't have been unhappy with the other two either.

 

[windows1]

Do you actually think that would have been a dumb move?
Rankine & Smith instead of Walsh?

We have Walsh and I wouldn't have it any other way now, but I wouldn't have been unhappy with the other two either.

Probability of finding players is important. Smith will be ‘very good’. Rankine will be freaky. I hope, for his sake.

Walsh will be one of the great Carlton players of all time. I think a lot about probability of finding ‘x’ quality. We haven’t found it THAT hard to get squad depth to 30. To do it just need to avoid doing stupid things over a number of years. Some teams have done stupid things regularly. We haven’t. For the whole SOS era we haven’t done stupid things with picks of value.

Who on our list would I prefer to Smith? In the 25 and under crew. Let’s see. Cripps. Walsh. Chuckie C. Weiters. McKay. Easily. Let’s see about the others.

Total list? Add Murph, Jones, Doc. Like he’s in the next group. Like very nice player. Nice to have him. But how difficult over a number of years is it in a probability sense to get someone at his level? I don’t think it’s that hard. Walsh? REALLY hard.

Over time I think taking the elite pays off. I also think it attracts other players, again making it easier to replace a Smith. How often do we hear ‘such and such wants to play with Cripps’. That will be walsh soon.

He’s a pillar of the club. He has IT. He has a steely determination I’ve not seen since Nathan Buckley. It’s not just ‘does a lot of work’. It’s more. It’s intangible. He reminds me so much of Buckley in that way.

Once in a generation player. Give me THAT guy any day over two other guys that aren’t as hard to find over a number of years.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Probability of finding players is important. Smith will be ‘very good’. Rankine will be freaky. I hope, for his sake.

Walsh will be one of the great Carlton players of all time. I think a lot about probability of finding ‘x’ quality. We haven’t found it THAT hard to get squad depth to 30. To do it just need to avoid doing stupid things over a number of years. Some teams have done stupid things regularly. We haven’t. For the whole SOS era we haven’t done stupid things with picks of value.

Who on our list would I prefer to Smith? In the 25 and under crew. Let’s see. Cripps. Walsh. Chuckie C. Weiters. McKay. Easily. Let’s see about the others.

Total list? Add Murph, Jones, Doc. Like he’s in the next group. Like very nice player. Nice to have him. But how difficult over a number of years is it in a probability sense to get someone at his level? I don’t think it’s that hard. Walsh? REALLY hard.

Over time I think taking the elite pays off. I also think it attracts other players, again making it easier to replace a Smith. How often do we hear ‘such and such wants to play with Cripps’. That will be walsh soon.

He’s a pillar of the club. He has IT. He has a steely determination I’ve not seen since Nathan Buckley. It’s not just ‘does a lot of work’. It’s more. It’s intangible. He reminds me so much of Buckley in that way.

Once in a generation player. Give me THAT guy any day over two other guys that aren’t as hard to find over a number of years.

That once-in-a-generation type could end up being Rankine, not Smith.

 

[windows1]

That once-in-a-generation type could end up being Rankine, not Smith.

Are we discussing probability? Or just gambling? What’s the probability do you think, at this stage, of each of the three of them being once in a generation players. Based on sample sizes of observed traits.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

I think we should be really active, so I propose the following:

A) trade Pick 9 and 54 to Geelong for 14 and 24

B) trade 14 and 24 to Port for 12 and 29.

C) trade 12 and 29 to GC for 15 and 20

D) trade 15 and 20 to Geelong for 9

... and there we have it - were into the top end of the draft with Pick 9!! .. and all it cost us was pick 54 and some clever wheeling and dealing! Take note SOS.

 

[gandaal]

Are we discussing probability? Or just gambling? What’s the probability do you think, at this stage, of each of the three of them being once in a generation players. Based on sample sizes of observed traits.

Three once in a generation players from the same generation?

Very low I'd imagine.

 

[JuddgementDay]

Three once in a generation players from the same generation?

Very low I'd imagine.

Np, there's an award for everything now

 

[gandaal]

When people compare Ash to Saad at first I think, "Great! We need speed desperately."

And then it occurs to me that there's no way in hell I'd trade a top 10 pick for Saad.

Hmmm...

 

[Eiffel 65]

We lose out big time, we essentially give up next year's third rounder and two other late picks for an upgrade that might land us a player who may still be available at pick 43. We need another pick in the mid rounds, not an upgrade of our second pick.

Depends on how many we take in the ND.

If we're only drafting three players, we're probably looking to upgrade those later picks as opposed to bringing another one in.

Even if it was considered as overs, I'd be keen for the club to pounce on Dylan Williams. A chance to still be on the board at 30, but probably won't last till 43.

 

[smashbox gill]

If we are deadset keen on Liam Henry and he is our preference for pick 9 and still on the board. We could go to Freo and offer 9 & 43 for 10 & 22.

They would rather get a player a 7 & 9 and 43 and later picks to get Henry.

Then 7 & 22 and have to use 10 to get Henry.

With 10 & 22 we could get
10-Kemp/Stephens/Robertson
22-Dylan Williams/Kysiah Pickett

 

[GT619]

If we are deadset keen on Liam Henry and he is our preference for pick 9 and still on the board. We could go to Freo and offer 9 & 43 for 10 & 22.

They would rather get a player a 7 & 9 and 43 and later picks to get Henry.

Then 7 & 22 and have to use 10 to get Henry.

With 10 & 22 we could get
10-Kemp/Stephens/Robertson
22-Dylan Williams/Kysiah Pickett

I’d do that in a heartbeat

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

If we are deadset keen on Liam Henry and he is our preference for pick 9 and still on the board. We could go to Freo and offer 9 & 43 for 10 & 22.

They would rather get a player a 7 & 9 and 43 and later picks to get Henry.

Then 7 & 22 and have to use 10 to get Henry.

With 10 & 22 we could get
10-Kemp/Stephens/Robertson
22-Dylan Williams/Kysiah Pickett

I like it....it's kind of like blackmail - give us 10 and 22, or else we make a bid on Henry and you have to blow pick 10 to match it. The trade ensures you get a pick at 9 and still get Henry with lower picks.

We drop down one spot, but get pick 22.....brilliant!!!

Freo can then pick Jackson at #9 if he's still there, and still get access to Henry - they would jump at that.

 

[murphster]

Docherty - Captain and stays in.
Jones - Mainstay and we didn't give him 3 years for nothing.
Plowman - Third in our B&F and another mainstay of the back-line.

Marchbank - Highly rated and we didn't entertain a trade when questions were asked.
Weitering - Mainstay

******** - This is where we can discuss the last player of our starting back six.

For now it will be Simpson as much as it will be Betts at the other end of the ground.
Newman didn't do much wrong for him not to be considered. Not a bad kick either.
Williamson? Sure, we don't know how he'll come back and should injury follow, it would be unfortunate as it was for Giles a few years back.
Stocker - Yes, he's a mid but started off this year in the back-line and spent most of his time there when playing. Strong, quick, dual-sided..has plenty.
O'Brien - I still see a back-line post for him and with Newnes and Martin coming on board, maybe even more so. Is relatively quick, a very good kick, is courageous even though at times it didn't quite look that way, reasonable mark and wants to play. Also a former top #10 which is the pick we'll like have.

We let Thomas go pretty much because we had future plans here and I can't see how the draft may have come into consideration. It wouldn't have.

Re. Young: I just rate him a lot higher than Ash and see Nick Haynes in him and as posted some weeks ago - Who wouldn't want Nick Haynes?
To me the gap between let's say Ash vs Stephens or Serong, isn't worth reaching for something you have covered.
Young is different and that reach for quality over needs comes into play. It should never just simply be one way.
BTW, I didn't say we should take Young (although I would) but just that I didn't see 'it' in Ash as much as I see 'it' in Young. Just to be clear.

Plus the fact we generally play with a seven man defence anyway.

 

[murphster]

Probability of finding players is important. Smith will be ‘very good’. Rankine will be freaky. I hope, for his sake.

Walsh will be one of the great Carlton players of all time. I think a lot about probability of finding ‘x’ quality. We haven’t found it THAT hard to get squad depth to 30. To do it just need to avoid doing stupid things over a number of years. Some teams have done stupid things regularly. We haven’t. For the whole SOS era we haven’t done stupid things with picks of value.

Who on our list would I prefer to Smith? In the 25 and under crew. Let’s see. Cripps. Walsh. Chuckie C. Weiters. McKay. Easily. Let’s see about the others.

Total list? Add Murph, Jones, Doc. Like he’s in the next group. Like very nice player. Nice to have him. But how difficult over a number of years is it in a probability sense to get someone at his level? I don’t think it’s that hard. Walsh? REALLY hard.

Over time I think taking the elite pays off. I also think it attracts other players, again making it easier to replace a Smith. How often do we hear ‘such and such wants to play with Cripps’. That will be walsh soon.

He’s a pillar of the club. He has IT. He has a steely determination I’ve not seen since Nathan Buckley. It’s not just ‘does a lot of work’. It’s more. It’s intangible. He reminds me so much of Buckley in that way.

Once in a generation player. Give me THAT guy any day over two other guys that aren’t as hard to find over a number of years.

Thank the lord Walsh isn’t a figjam like Buckley was.

 

[murphster]

I’d do that in a heartbeat

The trade with Freo has always been the ideal swap for us but Melbourne might get in before us with 8.

 

[ferrisb]

I’m warming to Serong. Think his mix of forward and mid suits us perfectly

 

[GT619]

The trade with Freo has always been the ideal swap for us but Melbourne might get in before us with 8.

I get that feeling melbourne will do that too

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

The trade with Freo has always been the ideal swap for us but Melbourne might get in before us with 8.

I guess the only risk with that is that Freo may get a free swing at a player either us or Demons may be targeting.

 

[thylacine60]

Three once in a generation players from the same generation?

Very low I'd imagine.

adam gilchrist expected to go 1 in 2021........

 

[windows1]

I guess the only risk with that is that Freo may get a free swing at a player either us or Demons may be targeting.

This. And of course for them at 8 than it is for us at 9. They can’t be assured by Freo they (Melb won’t lose the player of their choice). We are in between and they can’t control us. We can because there is no pick in between.

So I’d say Freo try. But I bet it doesn’t happen. Because the top end starts falling away around the end of the top ten. So there must be a decent probability there’s a gap between the player Melb want at 8 and the one they may get at 10. And they get what for it? 22 that slides to like 25? Nah.