Pick Swap 2019 - How Crow Can You Go?

Where will Adelaide finish?


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Stats? What stats? You just guess, or go on a feel
How about these stats?

1557791400255.png


Additionally;

No pick 1 to 5 has ever failed to play a game and only 4 of 80 has ever played less than 10 games
3 picks between 6 - 10 have failed to ever play a game whilst 67 of these 80 have played 10+ games
Between 11-30, about 1 in every 12 never plays a game whilst 1 in 5 never makes it to 10 games
As you can imagine the numbers fall off significantly after this.......

There reality is the drop off after 5 is where the cliff seems be - and this is to say that who's right or wrong, theres still a long way to go not only in this season but in the careers of the guys involved. Stocker may become a gun, Crows could easily sh*t the bed from here or a few close Blues results could land the other way. But all that being said, dont pretend there isnt stats to back up his point
 
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70lethal

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Don't kid yourself mate i don't think we will ever agree, if you told me it was Monday i would tell you it's Sunday somewhere. I stated 2015 because that's when we started the rebuild, but i'm sure you knew that.
No I just thought you picked 2015 because before that you consistently stank it up apart from Cripps.
Fortunately we can disagree but the ladder is clearly determining whose been wrong all along.
Imagine if we didn't help you with all those trades SOS flogged Reid in how bad you would be.

It's a pity we only get to play you in Adelaide every 3rd year. Oh Vic teams don,t get look after.
 

Blutopia

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I think that pretty much backs up what I have been saying. If you get pick 1 or 2 then it’s hard to miss. But between pick 3 and 20, the difference is not significant on average.
I don’t think you will end up with 1 or 2 this year. I think we are playing good enough footy to win a few games and leap frog Suns, Saints, Swans and North.
But if we finish bottom two, then you probably win the deal - but wait til then to start your crowing...
 

RobR

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No I just thought you picked 2015 because before that you consistently stank it up apart from Cripps.
Fortunately we can disagree but the ladder is clearly determining whose been wrong all along.
Imagine if we didn't help you with all those trades SOS flogged Reid in how bad you would be.

It's a pity we only get to play you in Adelaide every 3rd year. Oh Vic teams don,t get look after.
Do what you do and look up the stats, sorry can't debate with you for now beautiful weather coming so i'm heading to the Murray to try and catch a big fish. If i do i'll call it Coniglio.PS Just caught one from Adelaide.
 

70lethal

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Do what you do and look up the stats, sorry can't debate with you for now beautiful weather coming so i'm heading to the Murray to try and catch a big fish. If i do i'll call it Coniglio.PS Just caught one from Adelaide.
When you beat GC please feel free to let us know.
 

Blutopia

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Do what you do and look up the stats, sorry can't debate with you for now beautiful weather coming so i'm heading to the Murray to try and catch a big fish. If i do i'll call it Coniglio.PS Just caught one from Adelaide.
Make sure you do a P*** in the water. Just adds to that flavour of the S.A. water....
 

Blutopia

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Yep sorry i posted early - before finishing my post....completely agree but i think its top 5 and then 6-20 are about talent identification more than a lock
Yeah partially agree. 3-5 significantly drops off from 1-2, and then the gap between 3-5 to 6-20 is noticeable but not really significant.
1-2 seems the only sure thing still.
 

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Feeling like you've got more to say about Adelaide?

Need to get something crow-like off your chest?

This thread isn't enough for you?

Round 19 preview thread has a vacancy. You could write it together baggers, using lines from this thread.:)
What a fabulous idea BG.

Any takers?
 

Arr0w

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How about these stats?

View attachment 673508

Additionally;

No pick 1 to 5 has ever failed to play a game and only 4 of 80 has ever played less than 10 games
3 picks between 6 - 10 have failed to ever play a game whilst 67 of these 80 have played 10+ games
Between 11-30, about 1 in every 12 never plays a game whilst 1 in 5 never makes it to 10 games
As you can imagine the numbers fall off significantly after this.......

There reality is the drop off after 5 is where the cliff seems be - and this is to say that who's right or wrong, theres still a long way to go not only in this season but in the careers of the guys involved. Stocker may become a gun, Crows could easily sh*t the bed from here or a few close Blues results could land the other way. But all that being said, dont pretend there isnt stats to back up his point

I have already addressed a similar post, again there is no clear, overwhelming evidence. You may need to have another crack

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...row-can-you-go.1209706/page-160#post-60774025

I agree that picks at the pointy end of the draft gives you a greater chance to get the best talent/player, it certainly gives a larger pool to select from, but I think it should be dissected further. Below is a summary of the first 18 picks from 2008-2016. The reason why I have selected these years, is we all know recruiting has improved dramatically since 1986 and I have not included the last two years as we know players develop differently during the first couple of years, so it is an unfair assessment.(Walsh pick 1, Duursma pick 18, both with 6 games while others in the middle are yet to debut) Stats are from the end of round 6

While the first 9 picks have performed better than the next 9 picks, you need to drill down further, either in groups of 3 and or each pick versus another. If history continues, pick 2 (also pick 4) has a lower output compared to pick 5,6,7,9,11,14. While this is not a measure of talent, another consideration is most of the early picks are generally to sides that will debut players earlier, as we have done with the likes of Weitering, SPS, Dow, Walsh etc, as have many other lower clubs. Clubs finishing mid table or better, generally allow young draftees to develop more slowly through the lower levels.

It's why I have always believed pointy end picks are overrated and would always look to break picks down for multiple first round picks, depending where the talent level drops off.

As good as McGrath will be, a combination of SPS & Florent/Berry/SPP would be better value


1557800965247.png


As for including, some players have never played a game, that is already incorporated into the stats above. If you want to go down that road, more than happy to re-rate players taken 1-9, as well as re-rating players 10-18, the facts might surprise you
 

Eiffel 65

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You have your Blues coloured glasses on here mate.

Dow, Setterfield, Stocker, Cripps v Kelly, Taranto, Coniglio, Whitfield, Greene, Hooper...

There are plenty of tough inside players in that GWS list.
I don't see Kelly, Coniglio and Whitfield as inside bulls. More receiving players.

Hopper yes and Taranto to an extent. Ward was their main main and he's now out for the season.

Greene is more of a small forward so not really in and around the midfield contests.

GWS are probably still too outside to win a flag. I view them as a more polished version of Essendon.
 

Blutopia

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I don't see Kelly, Coniglio and Whitfield as inside bulls. More receiving players.

Hopper yes and Taranto to an extent. Ward was their main main and he's now out for the season.

Greene is more of a small forward so not really in and around the midfield contests.

GWS are probably still too outside to win a flag. I view them as a more polished version of Essendon.
I still think they’re a flag chance, they do have every line covered with talent but I feel it may be the coach that is the problem. Never seems to have a plan B when another team is able to shut down their running game.
Worst week to get them though after their last performance as they will be keen to bounce back.. we always seem to get good teams rebounding off a poor performance.
 

Eiffel 65

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I still think they’re a flag chance, they do have every line covered with talent but I feel it may be the coach that is the problem. Never seems to have a plan B when another team is able to shut down their running game.
Worst week to get them though after their last performance as they will be keen to bounce back.. we always seem to get good teams rebounding off a poor performance.
Same could be said about us.

We suffered a heart breaking loss against the Pies. Hopefully we come out full of energy and take it up to the Giants.

No one expects us to win, which is a dangerous situation for the Giants.
 

Ald Gardiner

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Same could be said about us.

We suffered a heart breaking loss against the Pies. Hopefully we come out full of energy and take it up to the Giants.

No one expects us to win, which is a dangerous situation for the Giants.
Agree, it really is a defeatist and “surrender monkey” argument to so fear another team after they lose unexpectedly, it’s almost giving the lads a convenient “out” to lose.

We’ve won 1 from 8 thus far, do you think GWS will use that as an excuse for losing to the “vengeful” Blues??

Let’s just get out there and repeat Pies/Hawks efforts of past few weeks and hopefully beat them!
 

SurreyBlue

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I feel we need to ignore this thread and subsequent Adelaide trolls for now. There is still plenty of time left in the season.
I still expect us to move quickly up the ladder this year. I also don't believe Adelaide to finish in the top 4. I also have a big belief in Stocker.
 

LemmingMaster

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I don't see Kelly, Coniglio and Whitfield as inside bulls. More receiving players.

Hopper yes and Taranto to an extent. Ward was their main main and he's now out for the season.

Greene is more of a small forward so not really in and around the midfield contests.

GWS are probably still too outside to win a flag. I view them as a more polished version of Essendon.
You're attempting to tell me Setterfield, Stocker and Dow are inside bulls, then I am sure you can say Kelly and Coniglio are certainly on the same level of inside ability. (Way more in my eyes)
 

thylacine60

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I feel we need to ignore this thread and subsequent Adelaide trolls for now. There is still plenty of time left in the season.
I still expect us to move quickly up the ladder this year. I also don't believe Adelaide to finish in the top 4. I also have a big belief in Stocker.
where do you have the tooth-fairy placed, sb?
 
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