Pick Swap 2019 - How Crow Can You Go?

Where will Adelaide finish?


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Yeh I would say he came across confident that we would start winning games.
As long as we keep turning up like we did last week, we'll win some games for sure.

Im sticking to 6 wins as my figure for this year, and I've seen nothing so far to dissuade me from that number.
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

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As long as we keep turning up like we did last week, we'll win some games for sure.

Im sticking to 6 wins as my figure for this year, and I've seen nothing so far to dissuade me from that number.
Yeh I would say we are playing easily as well as some sides who have won six in the past so there’s no reason we can’t. We could get “unlucky” though and keep losing games like the GC one I guess.
 
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At this stage it's Adelaide Pick 1. Carlton pick 15. Anyone suggesting this is not trending toward a disaster is lying to themselves. Look, I rate Stocker and I don't necessarily hate the trade from SOS. We had no idea Docherty was going to do another ACL amongst other key players getting injured. Slot Kreuzer, Simpson and Docherty into most games this year and we probably have 3-4 wins. However, the injury curse has continued and at this stage things are looking very ugly. We need some luck to go our way or heads may roll as a result of this year's performance.
 
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I have already addressed a similar post, again there is no clear, overwhelming evidence. You may need to have another crack

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...row-can-you-go.1209706/page-160#post-60774025

I agree that picks at the pointy end of the draft gives you a greater chance to get the best talent/player, it certainly gives a larger pool to select from, but I think it should be dissected further. Below is a summary of the first 18 picks from 2008-2016. The reason why I have selected these years, is we all know recruiting has improved dramatically since 1986 and I have not included the last two years as we know players develop differently during the first couple of years, so it is an unfair assessment.(Walsh pick 1, Duursma pick 18, both with 6 games while others in the middle are yet to debut) Stats are from the end of round 6

While the first 9 picks have performed better than the next 9 picks, you need to drill down further, either in groups of 3 and or each pick versus another. If history continues, pick 2 (also pick 4) has a lower output compared to pick 5,6,7,9,11,14. While this is not a measure of talent, another consideration is most of the early picks are generally to sides that will debut players earlier, as we have done with the likes of Weitering, SPS, Dow, Walsh etc, as have many other lower clubs. Clubs finishing mid table or better, generally allow young draftees to develop more slowly through the lower levels.

It's why I have always believed pointy end picks are overrated and would always look to break picks down for multiple first round picks, depending where the talent level drops off.

As good as McGrath will be, a combination of SPS & Florent/Berry/SPP would be better value

View attachment 673600

As for including, some players have never played a game, that is already incorporated into the stats above. If you want to go down that road, more than happy to re-rate players taken 1-9, as well as re-rating players 10-18, the facts might surprise you
So if this is your honest opinion - quantity is better that quality - does this suggest you would have been happy had Carlton done the same deal the year before, which at this stage looks like;

Carlton future 1st (which at this stage is no 1) which became Sam Walsh

for

2017 pick 19 - Wil Powell
Adelaide future 1st (currently 16) which became Ned McHenry
 

Arr0w

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So if this is your honest opinion - quantity is better that quality - does this suggest you would have been happy had Carlton done the same deal the year before, which at this stage looks like;

Carlton future 1st (which at this stage is no 1) which became Sam Walsh

for

2017 pick 19 - Wil Powell
Adelaide future 1st (currently 16) which became Ned McHenry
Just how I see it:

I didn't rate Powell in the top 20

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...ck-3-poll-added.1166483/page-84#post-52219751

I rated McHenry at 11, Stocker at 16

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...cont-in-part-2.1187246/page-389#post-58809464

I would rate both comfortably in the top 8 this year

Last year (every year) I was strong advocate for trading pick 1 (or any other early pick) for multiple 1st rounders. Of course you have to find a suitor, but that is difficult as most recruiters with multiple 1st round picks understand the value of taking them to the draft.
 
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Just how I see it:

I didn't rate Powell in the top 20

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...ck-3-poll-added.1166483/page-84#post-52219751

I rated McHenry at 11, Stocker at 16

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...cont-in-part-2.1187246/page-389#post-58809464

I would rate both comfortably in the top 8 this year

Last year (every year) I was strong advocate for trading pick 1 (or any other early pick) for multiple 1st rounders. Of course you have to find a suitor, but that is difficult as most recruiters with multiple 1st round picks understand the value of taking them to the draft.
Interesting - appreciate that you actually seem a man of your word and that you can have an informed and mature discussion without the general rubbish.

I think it all boils down to Adelaide never having picked towards to pointy end before, so fans are getting a bit over zealous of the thought of, that with our generally pretty reasonable player development, what could be if we finally get an elite talent. But there is also just a heap of knobs too..........

I personally believe it was good deal both ways - as mentioned numerous times, you blokes needs additional quality. We on the other hand have a depth of mid range footballers who cant crack the side, so 2 more would offer nothing but 1 jet, well yeah. Number 1 would have only been in our wildest dream - so if that happens, we will be stoked.....and in reality if Stocker and pick whatever become 200 game players, then i'd probably have you guys winning the deal even if we dont care too much.
 

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Interesting - appreciate that you actually seem a man of your word and that you can have an informed and mature discussion without the general rubbish.

I think it all boils down to Adelaide never having picked towards to pointy end before, so fans are getting a bit over zealous of the thought of, that with our generally pretty reasonable player development, what could be if we finally get an elite talent. But there is also just a heap of knobs too..........

I personally believe it was good deal both ways - as mentioned numerous times, you blokes needs additional quality. We on the other hand have a depth of mid range footballers who cant crack the side, so 2 more would offer nothing but 1 jet, well yeah. Number 1 would have only been in our wildest dream - so if that happens, we will be stoked.....and in reality if Stocker and pick whatever become 200 game players, then i'd probably have you guys winning the deal even if we dont care too much.
Most fans get excited by pointy end picks. Unless you get pick 1 (Anderson being the clear standout)from us (I still believe we won't finish bottom 2) if I was the Crows, I would trade back for a pick in the top 6 or 7 and another in the teens, as i see this year's draft (so far) similar to 2016

Crows have a strong history of talent identification/player development, so you would still back your club in, despite what the picks end up being

Unless we finish bottom 2 and Crows top 2, I agree the trade seems like it could be mutually beneficial, although given all the connotations/intertwined trades, it will be at least 4-5 years before we really know
 
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Blutopia

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Just how I see it:

I didn't rate Powell in the top 20

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...ck-3-poll-added.1166483/page-84#post-52219751

I rated McHenry at 11, Stocker at 16

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...cont-in-part-2.1187246/page-389#post-58809464

I would rate both comfortably in the top 8 this year

Last year (every year) I was strong advocate for trading pick 1 (or any other early pick) for multiple 1st rounders. Of course you have to find a suitor, but that is difficult as most recruiters with multiple 1st round picks understand the value of taking them to the draft.
I’m actually surprised by Wil Powell so far as in his draft year he was relatively unknown.
However, who says SOS would have chosen him?
Also, SOS and co specifically did the trade because they rated Stocker and because he was still available at that pick. So you really can not compare the live trade to any other year.
Who knows, behind the scenes if Jack Martin has stated an interested to get traded to a Melbourne club - anhandshake agreement may have been put in place that we send them a 1st rounder between 10 and 18 in 2019 draft plus some other pick shuffling, we get him. So for SOS, we may already have what we want and our 1st rounder is irrelevant.
 

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F_therest

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At this stage it's Adelaide Pick 1. Carlton pick 15. Anyone suggesting this is not trending toward a disaster is lying to themselves. Look, I rate Stocker and I don't necessarily hate the trade from SOS. We had no idea Docherty was going to do another ACL amongst other key players getting injured. Slot Kreuzer, Simpson and Docherty into most games this year and we probably have 3-4 wins. However, the injury curse has continued and at this stage things are looking very ugly. We need some luck to go our way or heads may roll as a result of this year's performance.
Lol calm your farm, no one's 'head is going to roll'. Not Bolton or SOS anyway.
We've shown we're capable of playing good footy and SOS has done well to rebuild our list so quickly.
 

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I’m actually surprised by Wil Powell so far as in his draft year he was relatively unknown.
However, who says SOS would have chosen him?
Also, SOS and co specifically did the trade because they rated Stocker and because he was still available at that pick. So you really can not compare the live trade to any other year.
Who knows, behind the scenes if Jack Martin has stated an interested to get traded to a Melbourne club - anhandshake agreement may have been put in place that we send them a 1st rounder between 10 and 18 in 2019 draft plus some other pick shuffling, we get him. So for SOS, we may already have what we want and our 1st rounder is irrelevant.
It's feasible, although I dont rate Martin highly, but as you say, we may have a target in mind.

Personally, I would hope for a couple of FA's then take the pick to the draft
 

F_therest

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It's feasible, although I dont rate Martin highly, but as you say, we may have a target in mind.

Personally, I would hope for a couple of FA's then take the pick to the draft
Always seemed like we did the trade with trading Adelaide's first in mind...we spoke about wanting Stocker also to close the age gap.
We don't really need to keep adding kids for the moment, we need mature-aged players to help the ones we've already got.

There's not actually that many FA's on the market that would be suitable for us...needing to trade Adelaide's pick is very likely.
 

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At this stage it's Adelaide Pick 1. Carlton pick 15. Anyone suggesting this is not trending toward a disaster is lying to themselves. Look, I rate Stocker and I don't necessarily hate the trade from SOS. We had no idea Docherty was going to do another ACL amongst other key players getting injured. Slot Kreuzer, Simpson and Docherty into most games this year and we probably have 3-4 wins. However, the injury curse has continued and at this stage things are looking very ugly. We need some luck to go our way or heads may roll as a result of this year's performance.
can I just say how sick and tired I am of the heads may roll threats and scenarios? and the assertion that whatever pick adelaide take will even make it - pick one or otherwise? and that by the time that pick is even playing ok footy stocker well may be entrenched in the strongest team in the game - and that pick 15 might produce another cripps? head may roll? spare me..........
 
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can I just say how sick and tired I am of the heads may roll threats and scenarios? and the assertion that whatever pick adelaide take will even make it - pick one or otherwise? and that by the time that pick is even playing ok footy stocker well may be entrenched in the strongest team in the game - and that pick 15 might produce another cripps? head may roll? spare me..........
It's the reality of the industry Thy... Not saying I agree with it.

The board at this stage would be livid with the way this has played out so far. Not over yet though.
 
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It's the reality of the industry Thy... Not saying I agree with it.

The board at this stage would be livid with the way this has played out so far. Not over yet though.
Why would they be livid? We got our man, who is looking like he is going along very nicely!

We also have a pick in the first rd of the draft this year.

We hit four drafts very hard, and now have an exciting young list who will grow together. Exciting times ahead for the Blues!!
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

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just because we are happy with Stocker doesn’t make it a good decision IF we finish bottom this year. If they knew things were going to end up the way they are now at the end of this season than surely if we love Stocker then we trade pick 1 last year and turn Walsh and 2019 first into something like
Rozee/Rankin, Stocker and Rowell/Anderson rather than
Walsh, Stocker and Pick 16
 

Blue_Fusion

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Why would they be livid? We got our man, who is looking like he is going along very nicely!

We also have a pick in the first rd of the draft this year.

We hit four drafts very hard, and now have an exciting young list who will grow together. Exciting times ahead for the Blues!!
You're entitled to your opinion, but I'd suggest it's not the right time to comment how he's tracking.

He's only played 2 games. The 1st was not impressive (but that was the whole team not just him).

Second game was much improved but to me, he still looks like he's not quite ready for AFL football.

Agree with the rest.
 

Blue_Fusion

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can I just say how sick and tired I am of the heads may roll threats and scenarios? and the assertion that whatever pick adelaide take will even make it - pick one or otherwise? and that by the time that pick is even playing ok footy stocker well may be entrenched in the strongest team in the game - and that pick 15 might produce another cripps? head may roll? spare me..........
Calm down, it's just an opinion of a poster on bigfooty.

I doubt heads will roll, we'll be focused on who we draft and how we can best develop them. Whoever Adelaide ends up getting will be their business. That's how I see us treating the situation.

I also still reckon we downgraded this year's 1st because we intend to trade it for an established player anyway.
 

Blue_Fusion

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just because we are happy with Stocker doesn’t make it a good decision IF we finish bottom this year. If they knew things were going to end up the way they are now at the end of this season than surely if we love Stocker then we trade pick 1 last year and turn Walsh and 2019 first into something like
Rozee/Rankin, Stocker and Rowell/Anderson rather than
Walsh, Stocker and Pick 16
Pick #16?

Doubt it'll be that low. Don't worry about where the Crows are currently on the ladder, the chances are they will drop down the pecking order. They haven't played/beat any teams to suggest they will finish 3rd yet.
 
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just because we are happy with Stocker doesn’t make it a good decision IF we finish bottom this year.
And finishing bottom this year doesn't make it a bad decision.

See, I too can make general statements without considering the trade as a whole.

If they knew things were going to end up the way they are now at the end of this season than surely if we love Stocker then we trade pick 1 last year and turn Walsh and 2019 first into something like
Rozee/Rankin, Stocker and Rowell/Anderson rather than
Walsh, Stocker and Pick 16
How many games of senior footy have these guys played collectively?

Using these hypothetical situations with a million different permutations to be critical of the club is just absurd.

We've got Walsh who is sensational, Stocker who we rate highly and who is developing nicely, and we've still got a presence in the first round of the draft if we want it.

The grass isn't always greener on the other side.
 
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