Pick Swap 2019 - How Crow Can You Go?

Where will Adelaide finish?


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jezzajay

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Welp. Really needed Melbourne to win last week & GWS tonight. First round pick not looking too flash.. Can’t get elite talent with a late first round pick.
Why when we will trade it...what does it matter whether it’s pick 18 or pick 8?
 

jezzajay

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They desperately need pick one lets be honest. Poor things.
They wont get it but if they did they would stuff it up and get a dud.
They just want it as they have nothing else to hang their collective minds hats on...they now know their team isn’t premiership material so the only thing they have to look forward to is pick one. And it’s only now they’re realising that that may not happen as the Suns continue to sink to the level we all anticipated, whilst we build.
 

Blues_1864

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Why when we will trade it...what does it matter whether it’s pick 18 or pick 8?
Well, because of the trade value. Pick 8 will get you a walk-up best-22 midfielder from just about any club in the league, if we can persuade the player to come. Pick 18 doesn't get that done without other sweeteners, unless you're lucky enough to pry out a disgruntled player from somewhere.
 

jezzajay

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Well, because of the trade value. Pick 8 will get you a walk-up best-22 midfielder from just about any club in the league, if we can persuade the player to come. Pick 18 doesn't get that done without other sweeteners, unless you're lucky enough to pry out a disgruntled player from somewhere.
If a player wants to come to us, we will get him...whether with pick 8...18...with other picks, whatever. The value whether it’s combined picks/players or with one pick - will still get the trade done.
 
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Thought you guys played really well yesterday, especially after getting down so far early on it would have been easy to capitulate. I think you'll escape bottom spot though hard to say if you can get out of bottom 2 realistically in my opinion. Missing those early wins may condemn you to that additionally because Sydney, Kangaroos and Melbourne seem to be improving maybe just enough to keep you there. Regardless there's a bit to take out of the last 11 rounds for Carlton to set up next year. Not to mention some good performances could help attract some players to fill those list gaps even if they aren't stars.

I actually think you guys did us a favour by winning as Brisbane are around our mark and a side we'll be fighting with probably to be in the lower part of the 8. Of course it's my supporters hope that even though we seem a fair way off that things can click and hot streak at the right time. Very unlikely but as supporters we generally want to hope for the best all be it with managed expectations.
 

RobR

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They just want it as they have nothing else to hang their collective minds hats on...they now know their team isn’t premiership material so the only thing they have to look forward to is pick one. And it’s only now they’re realising that that may not happen as the Suns continue to sink to the level we all anticipated, whilst we build.
They will have a few more pick 1's in the next 5 years.
 

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Eiffel 65

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Can someone tell me with the points, what would Stocker and Adelaides pick as it sits now be worth?

Mathematically, is it terrible or ok on current ladder positions.

How far apart on the ladder would we need to finish on the ladder to break even?
Don't worry about points champ.

The top end of last years draft was a lot stronger than this years.

The other thing is that we rated Stocker higher than pick 19. That pick had more value to us than its face value because we had the opportunity to take someone higher on our board.
 
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My bad. I meant in 2 more matches (3 weeks). All the more time to enjoy watching it happen. Cannot wait for the Crows to travel to Geelong.
Ah right, that makes more sense. Had a look at the remaining fixtures for the Crows and all things going well (playing like we did against the Giants, not how we played against the Kangaroos) this is how I see it playing out...

Richmond (home) - WIN - Richmond looked poor the last two weeks, they have many injuries, so now a good time to play them. If it was later in the season then I would say loss.
Geelong (away) - LOSS - plain and simple
Port (home) - WIN - anything can happen in a showdown, but generally we've had the better of them recently (won for the last 5)
Gold Coast (away) - WIN - Can't see the Suns winning a game for a long time...
Essendon (home) - WIN - home advantage gives us the win against an up and down Bombers. Will they have a new coach by then?
Carlton (away) - WIN - I'm flying down from Sydney to watch the match so will be a disappointing trip if we lose.
St Kilda (home) - WIN - Another team I can't see winning a game for a while either.
West Coast (away) - LOSS - won't stand a chance over in Perth.
Collingwood (home) - LOSS - Pies will be too good you would imagine.
Bulldogs (away) - WIN - Surely wouldn't drop the game against the Dogs?

Anyway that would give us 14 wins for the season. Maybe good enough for 6th on the ladder and a home final?
 

officialjc

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have analysed the remaining fixtures for both clubs. sos knows what he's doing.
carlton
vs brisbane @ marvel 50/50
vs western bulldogs @ marvel WIN
vs fremantle @ optus 50/50
vs melbourne @ mcg WIN
vs sydney @ scg 50/50
vs gold coast @ marvel WIN
vs adelaide @ mcg WIN
vs west coast @ marvel 50/50
vs richmond @ mcg 50/50
vs st kilda @ mcg WIN
vs geelong @ gmhba LOSS
counting half the 50/50s as WINS gives a projected 8.5 WINS for the season.

adelaide
vs gws @ ao
LOSS
vs richmond @ ao LOSS
vs geelong @ gmhba LOSS
vs port adelaide @ ao LOSS
vs gold coast @ metricon WIN
vs essendon @ ao 50/50
vs carlton @ mcg LOSS
vs st kilda @ ao 50/50
vs west coast @ optus LOSS
vs collingwood @ ao LOSS
vs western bulldogs @ mars 50/50
gives a projected 8.5 WINS for the season.
congratulations on the WIN against the lions. :D
updated WIN/LOSS projection
carlton
vs western bulldogs @ marvel WIN
vs fremantle @ optus 50/50
vs melbourne @ mcg WIN
vs sydney @ scg 50/50
vs gold coast @ marvel WIN
vs adelaide @ mcg WIN
vs west coast @ marvel 50/50
vs richmond @ mcg 50/50
vs st kilda @ mcg WIN
vs geelong @ gmhba LOSS
projected 9 WINS for the season

adelaide
vs richmond @ ao
LOSS
vs geelong @ gmhba LOSS
vs port adelaide @ ao LOSS
vs gold coast @ metricon WIN
vs essendon @ ao 50/50
vs carlton @ mcg LOSS
vs st kilda @ ao 50/50
vs west coast @ optus LOSS
vs collingwood @ ao LOSS
vs western bulldogs @ mars 50/50
projected 9.5 WINS for the season
 

JoeyPBLUES

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congratulations on the WIN against the lions. :D
updated WIN/LOSS projection
carlton
vs western bulldogs @ marvel WIN
vs fremantle @ optus 50/50
vs melbourne @ mcg WIN
vs sydney @ scg 50/50
vs gold coast @ marvel WIN
vs adelaide @ mcg WIN
vs west coast @ marvel 50/50
vs richmond @ mcg 50/50
vs st kilda @ mcg WIN
vs geelong @ gmhba LOSS
projected 9 WINS for the season

adelaide
vs richmond @ ao
LOSS
vs geelong @ gmhba LOSS
vs port adelaide @ ao LOSS
vs gold coast @ metricon WIN
vs essendon @ ao 50/50
vs carlton @ mcg LOSS
vs st kilda @ ao 50/50
vs west coast @ optus LOSS
vs collingwood @ ao LOSS
vs western bulldogs @ mars 50/50
projected 9.5 WINS for the season
Lol.
 

Eiffel 65

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Ah right, that makes more sense. Had a look at the remaining fixtures for the Crows and all things going well (playing like we did against the Giants, not how we played against the Kangaroos) this is how I see it playing out...

Richmond (home) - WIN - Richmond looked poor the last two weeks, they have many injuries, so now a good time to play them. If it was later in the season then I would say loss.
Geelong (away) - LOSS - plain and simple
Port (home) - WIN - anything can happen in a showdown, but generally we've had the better of them recently (won for the last 5)
Gold Coast (away) - WIN - Can't see the Suns winning a game for a long time...
Essendon (home) - WIN - home advantage gives us the win against an up and down Bombers. Will they have a new coach by then?
Carlton (away) - WIN - I'm flying down from Sydney to watch the match so will be a disappointing trip if we lose.
St Kilda (home) - WIN - Another team I can't see winning a game for a while either.
West Coast (away) - LOSS - won't stand a chance over in Perth.
Collingwood (home) - LOSS - Pies will be too good you would imagine.
Bulldogs (away) - WIN - Surely wouldn't drop the game against the Dogs?

Anyway that would give us 14 wins for the season. Maybe good enough for 6th on the ladder and a home final?
14 wins probably gets you into the top 4 this season.

Will be interesting to see which teams emerge as genuine contenders.

The team that finds form between rounds 16-23 will probably pose as the biggest threat to Collingwood and Geelong.
 

F_therest

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Ah right, that makes more sense. Had a look at the remaining fixtures for the Crows and all things going well (playing like we did against the Giants, not how we played against the Kangaroos) this is how I see it playing out...

Richmond (home) - WIN - Richmond looked poor the last two weeks, they have many injuries, so now a good time to play them. If it was later in the season then I would say loss.
Geelong (away) - LOSS - plain and simple
Port (home) - WIN - anything can happen in a showdown, but generally we've had the better of them recently (won for the last 5)
Gold Coast (away) - WIN - Can't see the Suns winning a game for a long time...
Essendon (home) - WIN - home advantage gives us the win against an up and down Bombers. Will they have a new coach by then?
Carlton (away) - WIN - I'm flying down from Sydney to watch the match so will be a disappointing trip if we lose.
St Kilda (home) - WIN - Another team I can't see winning a game for a while either.
West Coast (away) - LOSS - won't stand a chance over in Perth.
Collingwood (home) - LOSS - Pies will be too good you would imagine.
Bulldogs (away) - WIN - Surely wouldn't drop the game against the Dogs?

Anyway that would give us 14 wins for the season. Maybe good enough for 6th on the ladder and a home final?
congratulations on the WIN against the lions. :D
updated WIN/LOSS projection
carlton
vs western bulldogs @ marvel WIN
vs fremantle @ optus 50/50
vs melbourne @ mcg WIN
vs sydney @ scg 50/50
vs gold coast @ marvel WIN
vs adelaide @ mcg WIN
vs west coast @ marvel 50/50
vs richmond @ mcg 50/50
vs st kilda @ mcg WIN
vs geelong @ gmhba LOSS
projected 9 WINS for the season

adelaide
vs richmond @ ao
LOSS
vs geelong @ gmhba LOSS
vs port adelaide @ ao LOSS
vs gold coast @ metricon WIN
vs essendon @ ao 50/50
vs carlton @ mcg LOSS
vs st kilda @ ao 50/50
vs west coast @ optus LOSS
vs collingwood @ ao LOSS
vs western bulldogs @ mars 50/50
projected 9.5 WINS for the season
Honestly you Adelaide supporters are way too into this trade about who wins and loses...your death riding Carlton thread is off the charts!

Trying to predict Carlton and Adelaide's wins and losses for the rest of the year is pointless really.
We just beat the 5th placed Lions and you beat GWS, which i'm sure you wouldn't have had much confidence in a few weeks ago.

From our point of view, if we manage to trade your 1st pick for someone like Papley, and end up something like Stocker & Papley for pick 2/3, i'll be happy.
 

F_therest

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Thought you guys played really well yesterday, especially after getting down so far early on it would have been easy to capitulate. I think you'll escape bottom spot though hard to say if you can get out of bottom 2 realistically in my opinion. Missing those early wins may condemn you to that additionally because Sydney, Kangaroos and Melbourne seem to be improving maybe just enough to keep you there. Regardless there's a bit to take out of the last 11 rounds for Carlton to set up next year. Not to mention some good performances could help attract some players to fill those list gaps even if they aren't stars.

I actually think you guys did us a favour by winning as Brisbane are around our mark and a side we'll be fighting with probably to be in the lower part of the 8. Of course it's my supporters hope that even though we seem a fair way off that things can click and hot streak at the right time. Very unlikely but as supporters we generally want to hope for the best all be it with managed expectations.
IMO no way we finish below GC...they are only 1 game ahead of us now and look like a mess. They got their 3 wins early and they were all close wins, one against us with that goal with 15 seconds to go.

So max we are giving you is pick 2, which is still an awesome pick for you obviously.

I was hoping we'd overtake Sydney as well, but that just got a lot harder with their big win against West Coast.

But who knows, with a new coach and motivation we might go on a hot streak and leapfrog a few clubs. Not impossible for us to catch up to Melbourne and the Dogs...beat the dogs next week and we'll only be 1 game behind them as well.
 
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