Pick Swap 2019 - How Crow Can You Go?

Where will Adelaide finish?


  • Total voters
    516

Macca43

Club Legend
Mar 10, 2011
2,207
5,301
AFL Club
Carlton
You make a couple of valid points but your argument has a couple of holes.
Andrew Walker- priority pick
Shaun Sampson - priority pick
Whitnal, Blackwell, Buckley, Silvagni x 2 (and 1 coming) plus opportunity to take Manton and Hickmott x 2, Sheldon and Hunter in the past.

It's not the AFL's fault our sons were generally s**tter than Geelong's.
The aren't holes in my argument, they prove it. The draft is and has been incredibly compromised, there is no point playing a "pure" game and eschewing any AFL assistance when AFL assistance infests the entire draft.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Arr0w

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 13, 2015
15,436
35,090
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
Whats the point in formulating a factual response to you when you will simply set up another strawman.

And it isn't "playing the man" to observe that your "Crooked? Sure, the AFL caused us to draft poorly and mismanage our list" statement has nothing to do with my assertion that the draft is compromised.
Still with the strawman? Okay, I will entertaining you and I will address that soon enough. Given enough rope you always seem tie your own noose

Firstly, your response earlier in this interaction, was factually incorrect, Didak was never a PP, perhaps you should work on your research. You then mention a series of other players that were taken with aa PP, Deledio in 2004, I will counter that with Murphy in 2005. Then Rance in 2007, end of the 1st round, Kruezer as a PP in the same draft. So was in the PP or the talent identification that was better? We then made the decision to force out a player that didn't want to leave the club, a future hall of famer in Kennedy and a soild foot soldier in Masten, (both recent flag winners) for 2 players that are no longer in the game. Poor list management?

Now on the "strawman" comment. My post was only based on the discussion of priority picks, you then introduce father sons and academy picks, is that not where the "strawman" deflection started? Ironic isn't. So, while on father sons and academy players, we had/have the same assess/benefits as all other clubs, as the ones you mentioned in the Cats and Pies. Should we get a PP, due to ours being of lesser quality?

Is that noose tightening?
 

footyfan78

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 27, 2014
19,122
19,013
spacetime
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
there are no other teams worthy
Wouldn't it have been amazing if prior to 2015 our inept recruiters did what they were suppose to do, just like the Crows, Pies, Tigers, Cats to name a few that like us never had access to academy players, yet built strong competative sides, rather than begging for a handout

And now that we all have access to NGA, like other sides, perhaps we will focus on developing kids in that zone
You mean like Richmond who got Deledio and Rance as priority picks, or Geelong who got Scarlett, the Ablett brothers, Tim Callan, Mark Blake, Tom Hawkins, Jed Bews & Oscar Brownless as father sons and now have every second player nominate them as a destination club? Or COllingwood who got Didak & Thomas as priorities plus the Shaws, Clokes, Moore, Brown, Daicos & Kelly as father sons plus Quaynor as an academy player?

It is amazing what those clubs did with no AFL assistance!!
Man how do you remember all of that? I would struggle to remember what CFC players delisted from 5 years ago would look like.
Footywire draft history!!
quality work :thumbsu: - now quit disparaging arrow and you'll have access to the executive toilet at bf manor..........
never been there, probably somewhere I need to head to..

Not seen footywire draft history so will not comment on it as unsure how detailed or accurate it is.
But plenty of other sources exist when you want to look stuff up.

IMO, not enough keen footy fans take proper notice of how lists are built or re-built as sustained contention and premiership success group of players.
If you start to take notice of a proper draft era where clubs should take drafting seriously a good place to start is mid's 1990's once under 19's was fazed out and soon after concessions and compromises to a national draft system were mostly removed. Soon after Fremantle and Port came in.
There are websites that do a really good job of helping trace back how clubs became into a position of good lists and also how many stuff it up.
One thing that does stand out in the priority pick system that originated when Sydney was really bad in early 1990's really helped launch clubs from bottom towards top half of ladder over time and also make it hard to stay up near the top.

Every Draft pick and player trade. This site is super in terms of detail of data on draft picks in general and tracing back how trades and draft picks move around.

That link gives the most basic info of players name and year drafted and to which club. Not as good as the previous link but a quick link to just see if you can find a player name via control F on keyboard and year drafted.

This link gives you a list of every player that played as senior game for the club in this league.
What I find interesting with this source is it gives you the players date of birth, his age on debut for club and the order of player appearing as a senior player (example , Stocker our 1206th player in league history to debut)
Better still you can sort this list which means you can see a whole generation of players for any club come along over a number of years and cause a core group that becomes successful.
You can look up any club as I just gave link to Carlton as an example.

Also more recent years if you look up an AFL Draft year in Wikipedia each year tends to have trades and various drafts and de-listings for that off season in one place.
When you cross reference this stuff with draft guru site you can virtually trace back any info you like.

Combine these sources together and you can really get some know how of what draft picks are worth in general depending on pick number and also have a good feel for likelyhood of finding players in draft.
But also you can see how priority picks early this century and late last really gave some clubs a real leg up from winning less than 6 games back then.

Priority picks as we know are not what they used to be as really early ones virtually gone. Hopefully for good.


Although we have to keep in mind that the AFL create the 'policies'....the problem is that they are so loose in their application that supporters have no idea what their club is entitled to. Originally if a club had 4 wins or less in a season, it received a priority pick....it's now just a fuzzy application type scenario that the decision/outcome is based on some criteria that nobody has any idea what these are. Same goes with compensation of free agents. Policy on the run is always going to cause angst among the punters.

Totally agree that the draft system, f/sons, NGA and academies are all great initiatives, and we have to get better at some of these to help sustain our list into the future.
If Carlton or GCS are not eligible for a PP, then NO club will ever get one.

I would love to know under which metric a club could get a PP?

The only thing I could see is a plane crash that wipes out a team. I just cannot see a PP ever be given based on onfield performance, because Carlton has been terrible for 5 years.
Not keen on PP's. The main reason being that it's such a grey area at the AFL's discretion. I suppose if it was black and white where teams had to tick boxes to be entitled to a PP, then the tanking argument comes into play. Surely there is a better way to help teams consistently down the bottom.
The old PP was too much help. I really did not like how Saints through being s**t rewarded to get a very good list via priority picks that lead to multiple grand finals. Obviously they took advantage well too but follow it up with Hawks and Pies soon after and see how it gave them multiple really early picks it is frustrating to see the difference now where to get early picks you got to trade some of your current talent to get more early picks which only makes the initial period of building add more pain before you wait for a bunch of talented youngster mature. But I prefer this way now without the really early priority picks as clubs have to work harder and less rewarded for simply being down the bottom.
 
Last edited:

Macca43

Club Legend
Mar 10, 2011
2,207
5,301
AFL Club
Carlton
Still with the strawman? Okay, I will entertaining you and I will address that soon enough. Given enough rope you always seem tie your own noose

Firstly, your response earlier in this interaction, was factually incorrect, Didak was never a PP, perhaps you should work on your research. You then mention a series of other players that were taken with aa PP, Deledio in 2004, I will counter that with Murphy in 2005. Then Rance in 2007, end of the 1st round, Kruezer as a PP in the same draft. So was in the PP or the talent identification that was better? We then made the decision to force out a player that didn't want to leave the club, a future hall of famer in Kennedy and a soild foot soldier in Masten, (both recent flag winners) for 2 players that are no longer in the game. Poor list management?

Now on the "strawman" comment. My post was only based on the discussion of priority picks, you then introduce father sons and academy picks, is that not where the "strawman" deflection started? Ironic isn't. So, while on father sons and academy players, we had/have the same assess/benefits as all other clubs, as the ones you mentioned in the Cats and Pies. Should we get a PP, due to ours being of lesser quality?

Is that noose tightening?
Sigh - still building that strawman. You only think my noose is tightening because you are arguing a completely different point.

My point is simple, the draft is incredibly compromised with all sorts of assistance PP, FS, Academies - you pointing to all the assistance we got only enhances my argument.

No one is arguing the blues didn't draft poorly.

As for Didak, this is from footywire - the P stands for "Priority" - if that is in correct take it up with them.
707637


As for your original post being about PP this is it, you note it mentions only "handouts" and no access to academy players - you are as loose with the truth as your are with the noose.

"Wouldn't it have been amazing if prior to 2015 our inept recruiters did what they were suppose to do, just like the Crows, Pies, Tigers, Cats to name a few that like us never had access to academy players, yet built strong competative sides, rather than begging for a handout"
 
Last edited:

Arr0w

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 13, 2015
15,436
35,090
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
Sigh - still building that strawman. You only think my noose is tightening because you are arguing a completely different point.

My point is simple, the draft is incredibly compromised with all sorts of assistance PP, FS, Academies - you pointing to all the assistance we got only enhances my argument.

No one is arguing the blues didn't draft poorly.

As for Didak, this is from footywire - the P stands for "Priority" - if that is in correct take it up with them.
View attachment 707637

As for your original post being about PP this is it, you note it mentions only "handouts" and no access to academy players - you are as loose with the truth as your are with the noose.

"Wouldn't it have been amazing if prior to 2015 our inept recruiters did what they were suppose to do, just like the Crows, Pies, Tigers, Cats to name a few that like us never had access to academy players, yet built strong competative sides, rather than begging for a handout"
You really are struggling Macca, perhaps you should go back to my original post

If you are saying the main point of your argument is that the AFL is compromised in these matters, why are you in the pro PP party? It's a real contradiction
 

Macca43

Club Legend
Mar 10, 2011
2,207
5,301
AFL Club
Carlton
You really are struggling Macca, perhaps you should go back to my original post

If you are saying the main point of your argument is that the AFL is compromised in these matters, why are you in the pro PP party? It's a real contradiction
I have knocked down one strawman so you thought you would start on another. The fact you think my position is contradictory shows how pointless trying to have a legitimate discussion with you is. My point is (and I have stated this clearly numerous times) that the draft is completely compromised so us trying to be pure and not look into a PP is pointless. Either everyone is clean or everyone is dirty.

I posted your "original post" that started our interaction.

But anyway I dare say you will cobble together some other strawman to try and reassure yourself you haven't been shown to be completely wrong, knock yourself out, I am done with my remedial class.
 

Aphrodite

Moderator
Aug 26, 2004
67,529
80,771
CHANEL BOUTIQUE!
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
"Goddess"
Gibbs not selected again. Not even named as emergency.

 

Carltontragic

Team Captain
Sep 26, 2018
485
1,157
AFL Club
Carlton
Not seen footywire draft history so will not comment on it as unsure how detailed or accurate it is.
But plenty of other sources exist when you want to look stuff up.

IMO, not enough keen footy fans take proper notice of how lists are built or re-built as sustained contention and premiership success group of players.
If you start to take notice of a proper draft era where clubs should take drafting seriously a good place to start is mid's 1990's once under 19's was fazed out and soon after concessions and compromises to a national draft system were mostly removed. Soon after Fremantle and Port came in.
There are websites that do a really good job of helping trace back how clubs became into a position of good lists and also how many stuff it up.
One thing that does stand out in the priority pick system that originated when Sydney was really bad in early 1990's really helped launch clubs from bottom towards top half of ladder over time and also make it hard to stay up near the top.

Every Draft pick and player trade. This site is super in terms of detail of data on draft picks in general and tracing back how trades and draft picks move around.

That link gives the most basic info of players name and year drafted and to which club. Not as good as the previous link but a quick link to just see if you can find a player name via control F on keyboard and year drafted.

This link gives you a list of every player that played as senior game for the club in this league.
What I find interesting with this source is it gives you the players date of birth, his age on debut for club and the order of player appearing as a senior player (example , Stocker our 1206th player in league history to debut)
Better still you can sort this list which means you can see a whole generation of players for any club come along over a number of years and cause a core group that becomes successful.
You can look up any club as I just gave link to Carlton as an example.

Also more recent years if you look up an AFL Draft year in Wikipedia each year tends to have trades and various drafts and de-listings for that off season in one place.
When you cross reference this stuff with draft guru site you can virtually trace back any info you like.

Combine these sources together and you can really get some know how of what draft picks are worth in general depending on pick number and also have a good feel for likelyhood of finding players in draft.
But also you can see how priority picks early this century and late last really gave some clubs a real leg up from winning less than 6 games back then.

Priority picks as we know are not what they used to be as really early ones virtually gone. Hopefully for good.







The old PP was too much help. I really did not like how Saints through being s**t rewarded to get a very good list via priority picks that lead to multiple grand finals. Obviously they took advantage well too but follow it up with Hawks and Pies soon after and see how it gave them multiple really early picks it is frustrating to see the difference now where to get early picks you got to trade some of your current talent to get more early picks which only makes the initial period of building add more pain before you wait for a bunch of talented youngster mature. But I prefer this way now without the really early priority picks as clubs have to work harder and less rewarded for simply being down the bottom.
Great post mate! 10/10! I’m usually more a voyeur on here, lack the time to do adequate research, but i really do enjoy reading most of the posters opinions here.. cheers
 

Opine

Premium Gold
Aug 30, 2018
2,731
4,769
AFL Club
Carlton
They'll be hating Gold Coast right now...taken pick 1 (potentially) away from them...Luko and Rankine up there enjoying life away from Adelaide...possible priority pick which affects who they may draft.
A curse they brought onto themselves...amongst others (GF floppers, collective minds, pike, power stance, gibbs etc)
Do I feel sorry for them - not one iota!
Furthermore, if SOS ever does decide to take on role as list manager at another club, I hope that club is GC; coinciding with end of contract terms for JL and IR. It would be gold knowing Crows have to once again face SOS in crucial trade scenario/s.
 

Wickzki

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 1, 2010
15,368
18,247
Brisbane
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
PDX Blazers, Angels, Patriots, MCFC
.
As for Didak, this is from footywire - the P stands for "Priority" - if that is in correct take it up with them.
View attachment 707637
707764


Here's from Wikipedia. Only Nick Riewoldt was a priority pick in 2000. This is an accurate draft.

FootyWire is good for statistics but they don't do draft and trade recording very well except for "games since drafted."

If Didak was a PP then the draft would have gone St. Kilda (Riewoldt) -- Collingwood (Didak) -- St. Kilda (Koschitzke) -- Collingwood (?). Instead it was St. Kilda (priority pick), St. Kilda (round one), Collingwood, Carlton (Livingston) and so on. Back in those days priority picks were ahead of the first round.
 

Macca43

Club Legend
Mar 10, 2011
2,207
5,301
AFL Club
Carlton
View attachment 707764

Here's from Wikipedia. Only Nick Riewoldt was a priority pick in 2000. This is an accurate draft.

FootyWire is good for statistics but they don't do draft and trade recording very well except for "games since drafted."

If Didak was a PP then the draft would have gone St. Kilda (Riewoldt) -- Collingwood (Didak) -- St. Kilda (Koschitzke) -- Collingwood (?). Instead it was St. Kilda (priority pick), St. Kilda (round one), Collingwood, Carlton (Livingston) and so on. Back in those days priority picks were ahead of the first round.
Thanks. Doesn't change the point though.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Arr0w

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 13, 2015
15,436
35,090
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
According to a poster over there, we have one of the worst lists/team in the history of football. :think: hmmm, can't see myself wanting to swap lists in a big hurry.
Bizarre comment, but that's generally for people that only see the now.

Many of their supporters have already indicated that they believe their list is a middle of the road side that needs an overhaul
 

Smegger

Club Legend
May 19, 2016
2,538
5,566
place without a postcard
AFL Club
Carlton
Bizarre comment, but that's generally for people that only see the now.

Many of their supporters have already indicated that they believe their list is a middle of the road side that needs an overhaul
Losing Cameron and Betts' getting closer to the end is hurting them (among others). IMO crows are hanging onto their "window" by fingernails.
 

btdg

Premiership Player
Oct 7, 2005
3,721
2,721
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Carlton
Crows have put GC to the sword early - let’s hope we do the same next week.

Playing around with ladder predictor it now seems almost certain that Adelaide finish between 6th-9th. They have swing games vs Essendon and Collingwood (home) and Bulldogs (away) and the rest are either cupcake wins or very tough away games.

They can get above 6th if they play well in the swing games and either pinch a tough one (ie West Coast in Perth) or if Richmond/GWS/Brisbane really blow it. 5th isn’t a long shot, anything top 4 is.

If by some miracle we beat them then things maybe get interesting for us. A lot would depend on Hawthorn going on a mini-streak and grabbing an unexpected win (ie Geelong at the MCG next week) or North winning a couple. In that case there is a pathway to us getting to 14th and the Crows sitting 9-11th depending on their swing matchups and percentage. I’d say there’s a 25% chance of this outcome if we beat them in Melbourne.

So unless the Crows have a massive form slump it’s most likely we hand them pick 2, and get back 10-13 (likely to be 12-15 after academies). Absolute best case right now for us - GC get a priority, and we end up giving the Crows 7 (after the priority and GWS academy) and we get back 10 (factoring in the same extra selections and getting in before the second academy player picked)
 

btdg

Premiership Player
Oct 7, 2005
3,721
2,721
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Carlton
I should add that after starting to look at draft profiles, I think getting pick 10 or better is huge in this draft.

There are 2 standouts (3 if you count Greene from GWS academy) in Rowell and Anderson. Then there’s probably a tier of 6-7 players almost all of whom are either goalkicking mid/forwards or running defenders - exactly what we need. After that it thins out a bit.

Assuming we have pick 10 and that someone reaches for a ruck or KP player ahead, I think we come out of this ok if we get pick 10 or 11 - in that case we get Stocker plus someone who fits us really well in exchange for one of the 2 standouts.

End up below 12 and it starts getting very thin... unless we take a flyer on a ruckman or we want to take Dow’s brother.

In that best case scenario where we beat them and get to, say, 15th, while they slump to 10th or 11th, there is almost nothing separating the picks swapped imo. That makes this a huge win for us.

So in my very amateur, very early analysis:

- if we finish bottom 2 and miss out on a top 10 pick then we lose the trade badly (unless Stocker becomes Luke Hodge)

- if we finish bottom 2 and GC don’t get a priority pick 1 this trade is a win for Adelaide, who will access a player who they would never have got itherwise

- if they miss the finals, this trade is arguably a win for us, because we will get 2 players we like/need

- if we beat them, all bets are off and there is a pathway to this being a massive win for us and disaster for the Crows
 

Arr0w

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 13, 2015
15,436
35,090
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
Crows have put GC to the sword early - let’s hope we do the same next week.

Playing around with ladder predictor it now seems almost certain that Adelaide finish between 6th-9th. They have swing games vs Essendon and Collingwood (home) and Bulldogs (away) and the rest are either cupcake wins or very tough away games.

They can get above 6th if they play well in the swing games and either pinch a tough one (ie West Coast in Perth) or if Richmond/GWS/Brisbane really blow it. 5th isn’t a long shot, anything top 4 is.

If by some miracle we beat them then things maybe get interesting for us. A lot would depend on Hawthorn going on a mini-streak and grabbing an unexpected win (ie Geelong at the MCG next week) or North winning a couple. In that case there is a pathway to us getting to 14th and the Crows sitting 9-11th depending on their swing matchups and percentage. I’d say there’s a 25% chance of this outcome if we beat them in Melbourne.

So unless the Crows have a massive form slump it’s most likely we hand them pick 2, and get back 10-13 (likely to be 12-15 after academies). Absolute best case right now for us - GC get a priority, and we end up giving the Crows 7 (after the priority and GWS academy) and we get back 10 (factoring in the same extra selections and getting in before the second academy player picked)
We won't finish bottom 2
 
Top Bottom