Pick Swap Completed

[Scholz Supremacy]

Reminds me of when Brisbane were death-riding us in 2017, except this time they could be looking at a Top 6 draft pick in return!

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

I keep looking at this deal and thinking there's an extra second rounder coming to us that I've missed or something. I just can't get my head around it.

So if we win the flag next year, we've traded 18 next year + 29 this year for 16 + two picks in the 50's this year. That's barely a breakeven. And that's best case scenario.

If we finish in roughly the same spot this year as next year, we've traded 10 for 16 and 29 for a couple of picks in the 50's. That's an insanely bad deal. And that's assuming we don't get any worse. Which we may very well do.

Just think of 29/picks in the 50s as Mead.

Therefore, we traded Mead for Mead.

Then it's just a first round pick for a first round pick. We like players in this draft more than next year's draft, plus must see something in Schofield and Jones that make us not view our first rounder next year as valuable as one this year for us.

We're also obviously banking we don't go to absolute shit next year, cos then it's a horrific deal.

 

[JimmyBeerCans]

I'll wait and see how it pans out losing all emotion for the club probably gives me a more pragmatic view these days.

 

[Jonts]

I keep looking at this deal and thinking there's an extra second rounder coming to us that I've missed

The club obviously sees the picks in the 50s as mead
I break it down on a previous page the scenarios then if a mead bid is at 30

 

[Rendaw]

Bigfooty melts are the best

 

[Powerade 08]

Congrats to Brisbane for getting a top 5 pick for pick 16. fu** this club

Almost as good as Saints getting Howard and pick 10 for pick 6.

 

[afl2004]

Nothing matters while the people in charge of our club are there, won't be finishing top 4 for 5 years , so let's settle it's all pointless anyway

 

[Schulzenfest]

Just think of 29/picks in the 50s as Mead.

Therefore, we traded Mead for Mead.

Then it's just a first round pick for a first round pick. We like players in this draft more than next year's draft, plus must see something in Schofield and Jones that make us not view our first rounder next year as valuable as one this year for us.

We're also obviously banking we don't go to absolute shit next year, cos then it's a horrific deal.

OK, that's fine. But Brisbane don't see it as trading Mead for Mead, Brisbane see it as trading two picks in the 50's as pick 29. So why aren't we clearly winning the other side of the deal, rather than relying on finishing 3rd or above next year (a feat we haven't achieved since 2007) just to breakeven? To me it seems that we've just handed Brisbane one definite win and one probable win for no discernible gain for ourselves.

Nobody at this club has the slightest idea of how to negotiate. If Scully or Patton had wanted to come here rather than Hawthorn we probably would've given up a first rounder for them.

 

[Port85]

1. There's nothing to suggest we won't finish in middling mediocrity again, so the pick wont be that bad.

2. We'll trade someone to get into the first round in 2020 if we have to. Club is not afraid to pull the trigger (rightly or wrongly).

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

OK, that's fine. But Brisbane don't see it as trading Mead for Mead, Brisbane see it as trading two picks in the 50's as pick 29. So why aren't we clearly winning the other side of the deal, rather than relying on finishing 3rd or above next year (a feat we haven't achieved since 2007) just to breakeven? To me it seems that we've just handed Brisbane one definite win and one probable win for no discernible gain for ourselves.

Nobody at this club has the slightest idea of how to negotiate. If Scully or Patton had wanted to come here rather than Hawthorn we probably would've given up a first rounder for them.

I'd say because Brisbane weren't going to just swap first-rounders for no other reason. Why give up a known for an unknown? It MIGHT end up us winning the flag and then they've given up Pick 16 for Pick 18 in a far more compromised draft. No reason to even risk that if they're already happy with pick 16 - it just so happened that Pick 29 was worthless to us and not worthless to them. So we used that to get the deal over the line.

 

[briztoon]

1. We could do other things with 29 than use it on Mead. The AFL even confirmed that a bid could come in and even then we could have traded it out to match with cheaper points. Deciding ’Mead=29’ as the only possible, and making all comparisons on that basis, is not using the truth as a basis.

2. What if we finish well out of the eight, which seems likely given our list balance.

There are still rules and constraints with trading live picks when a bid comes in.

Say Adelaide bid at pick 28.

Ok so you trade out pick 29. That’s one draft pick you have traded out, which means you’re only allowed to trade back in one draft pick. You need a pick equivalent or better than pick 38 to match a bid at 29.

So say Geelong trades pick 36 and a future 4th round pick for your pick 29.

You can trade out pick 29 and 66 to get two picks traded back in. Might find a buyer in Richmond who might trade 39 and 41 for 29 and 66. You’ll lose a few points off of pick 41, but you’re basically moving pick 66 up 20 spots in this trade.

Draft rules are you are only allowed to have as many picks as you have available list spots.

Currently you have four available list spots according to the AFL.com article.

You can delist a couple of your contracted players towards the end of your list, and you commit to redrafting them in the rookie draft, to open up extra draft picks.

Or you don’t match a bid on Mead and pick another kid.

 

[bomberclifford]

I'm cool with this.
No risk, no reward.
Put it all on black.

 

[NEGAN]

I'd say because Brisbane weren't going to just swap first-rounders for no other reason. Why give up a known for an unknown? It MIGHT end up us winning the flag and then they've given up Pick 16 for Pick 18 in a far more compromised draft. No reason to even risk that if they're already happy with pick 16 - it just so happened that Pick 29 was worthless to us and not worthless to them. So we used that to get the deal over the line.

Club also rates this years draft higher and have someone in mind they want this year.

Probably also content with Taj next year.

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

I keep looking at this deal and thinking there's an extra second rounder coming to us that I've missed or something. I just can't get my head around it.

So if we win the flag next year, we've traded 18 next year + 29 this year for 16 + two picks in the 50's this year. That's barely a breakeven. And that's best case scenario.

If we finish in roughly the same spot this year as next year, we've traded 10 for 16 and 29 for a couple of picks in the 50's. That's an insanely bad deal. And that's assuming we don't get any worse. Which we may very well do.

I mean yeah, this exactly

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Club also rates this years draft higher and have someone in mind they want this year.

Probably also content with Taj next year.

And Lachlan Jones.

 

[Rendaw]

I'm cool with this.
No risk, no reward.
Put it all on black.

 

[Andre]

If we were likely to make top 8 it wouldn't be too bad in a compromised draft with Schofield and/or Jones potentially attracting early bids.

Given though we're likely to have traded out a top 10 and quite possibly a top 6 pick, there's more chance we've unnecessarily missed out on a top 6 - 12 player (even after bids) for pick 16.

 

[raptalia]

Of course we do not know what is likely to happen in next year's trade period. Who in 2017 would have predicted that we would trade Wingard at the end of 2018? On another thread most posters are warming to the idea of trading Ollie Wines so if that happens we could, or rather should, pick up a first and possibly second round pick. That is no certainty to happen but you never know.

 

[Jimmy Unchained]

The reasons why I like this trade overlap with the reasons why I think it's acceptable to overpay on points.

1. Draft picks are not a liquid commodity, it seems most clubs are happy to just run with their picks unless they have academy selections/trades to make. We are not happy to just use what we are given.
2. NPV of draft picks (is a pick 16 in 2019 with a year of development worth more than a pick 13 in 2020).
3. 2020 picks may be worth less than 2019 picks (Points wise), if the AFL discard the discount on draft picks ahead of probably the largest bidding draft since bidding has been implemented. I think that we would be either using our first pick to bid on Taj, or trading our pick backwards with other clubs who are also trying to cobble together as many points as possible (especially if they weren't prepared for a removal of the discount).
4. 2020 picks may be worth less than 2019 picks (availability/talent of players selected). We have stated that we will choose to opt of out drafts where we do not perceive the talent as strong as other years. I would not be surprised if next year we only matched bids on F/S or NGA selections.
5. I believe that currently our club has a competitive advantage on some other clubs (not everyone) in talent identification. If we have to pay extra in order to chase the players we think are the best for us in the draft, then do it.

Adjusting for the above, I believe the overpaying is somewhere in the realm of Pick 40-50 (This is probably just Port supporter mental gymnastics).

As far as the overall look of it

1. We downgrade a mid-first rounder in a weak and compromised draft, to a late first rounder in this draft.
2. We take advantage of the bidding system and discounting system by getting additional value out of pick 29 (Every single club we deal with would know we want to get rid of it, I don't buy that an alternative would have had sufficiently better value for me to dismiss the whole trade).
3. We may have a look at a higher end pick this draft. Given we have turned over half the list in the past few years I am all for Quality>Quantity.

Assumptions:
1. We will be just as mediocre next year as this year (I have full faith in the club to this extent).
2. Next years draft is the dumpster fire that it has been described as (in terms of talent available for Port to draft).

 

[TeeKray]

I'm cool with this.
No risk, no reward.
Put it all on black.

What we stand to lose (a top 3 pick) is a lot more than what we stand to gain (some minor pick upgrades if all goes to plan). It's not a smart gamble.

 

[Kiss from a Rozee]

Unfortunately all the other clubs know how desperate we are to move 29 on so we were always going to be losing on that trade.

I’m still firmly against trading out first rounders under a bad administration though. Even if Cripps etc are making their own decisions, it’s way too hard to know that for sure and it looks like an unnecessary hail mary.

 

[Brian McGee]

The only thing that I can think of to justify this pick trade is the club wants to build the future team around these 2 drafts, without spreading the picks around over so many years. This will be 6 first round picks in a 2 year period, and if the club is going to target any of rankine, Lukosius and hately over the next few trade periods, it could be up to 7 or 8 first rounders out of these 2 drafts. A very strong basis for a team all coming through together in a few years.

 

[NEGAN]

Pick 3???

 

[Willsy10]

Hinkley era minor round wins and finishes:

14 wins x 2
12 wins x 3
11 wins x 1
10 wins x 1

5th x 2
7th x 1
9th x 1
10th x 3

I would suggest that we are going to finish somewhere in this range yet again. It's now a fairly big sample size with very consistent results. We haven't given away a top 3 pick, nor are we finishing top 4.

 

[afl2004]

We won't finish bottom 4 were average not terrible