Traded Pick swap: Gold Coast trade #27 to Geelong for a 2021 R3 pick (Melb)

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You seem unable to understand that teams aren't simply collections of individual talent. Culture, leadership and social bonds all matter to team chemistry. Also, players and player managers follow trends when it comes to staying or leaving clubs. Teams often have ongoing periods of attracting prized recruits or enduring mass exodus. Gold Coast had to get away from the culture of lazy cocaine addicts that they'd previously built up, and trading in Weller helped them do that. Go ask Gold Coast fans how many of them regret the club making that trade.
It's so high-concept. Tell me more about "the narrative".
 
May 5, 2006
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Pick 27 for a pick that will be 37+ before any shenanigans is... interesting. With all due respect to Gold Coast it's likely that they just traded pick 27 for pick 40-50 given Melbourne are iffy to make the finals and the order is always being pushed back.

It's the sort of trade where you'd normally expect Geelong to throw in a garbage pick so you can sell it as a 2 for 1 deal or 'look the points almost match'. But then last year they traded 27 for a future mid first round pick and another pick.

As usual, the AFL don't have a clear position on things. In 2017 we traded pick 50 with a future 1st for 21, 26, 37 and a future second. We won that deal massively, but in theory we could've been swapping pick 1 in the 2018 draft for pick 36 rather than 22 for 25 as it ended up being after bids and compo picks. Hawthorn's trade with St Kilda of picks 10 and 68 for 23, 26 and a future first another one which raised eyebrows.

How much can you take the piss with pure pick trades before the AFL step in? It's not like the NBA where you can just attach players you don't want to clear cap space. We have basically 0 of value this year but all our picks next year plus an extra second (Port) and third (Sydney). Personally I think Port will be a top 8 side again and that second round pick will be in the 30s, but that's not set in stone. It's 18-36 at this point. If we wanted to do a straight pick swap back into 2020 then I would expect we might get 25-30 for that pick from another club, maybe. I wouldn't expect GWS to say 'this draft sucks, here have pick 15 for it' but if they did would the AFL rubber stamp it? What about pick 13? Pick 10? Essendon's pick 8? There has to be a line in the sand where the AFL say no.
 

Mt Isa Mustang

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there were better deals to be had earlier in the trade weeks.

We needed to trade out of this year into next. Everyone new this by now. Can’t have had much leverage. Guess this is the result.


maybe we should have moved earlier. Maybe the AFL late decision that requires Davies and Jeffrey to join main list rather than rookie stuffed our plans. Maybe we just have no idea what we’re doing.

All 3 of these things prob correct to some degree.
 
Well, now that you put it in question form, I guess not.

"The talent runs out."

As if it's a tap that gets turned off.

If the Suns won't use that pick, they should trade it. The downgrade is still generous.
The Suns would not have traded it without knowing what they could get elsewhere. It's just that no one wants a pick in this draft after 30.

I mean we gave away pick 30 for a 32 year old, was it generosity or is there just a fair chance that the player you'd be thinking about will still be available next draft?
 

Peel67skin

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The Suns would not have traded it without knowing what they could get elsewhere. It's just that no one wants a pick in this draft after 30.

I mean we gave away pick 30 for a 32 year old, was it generosity or is there just a fair chance that the player you'd be thinking about will still be available next draft?
I still think they need to check on Craig Cameron , in all spots bribery happen .
 
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After looking at this trade closer, it actually seems pretty close. We obviously get the higher pick, but they get a pick in a less speculative draft.

If Melbourne finish mid tier, as most expect, then it'll be Pick 45 at best. With NGA and academy kids this year, our pick 27 will drift out to around Pick 36 or higher - depending on if other academy kids get bid on earlier than expected. That's a maximum 9 pick difference, where the future pick is in a stronger draft.

Not as bad as a lot are making out here

If Melbourne finish mid table, there is no way it is only a 9 pick difference. Melbourne finished mid table this year and their 3rd rounder is pick 50. All the free agency compo, etc still needs to be added to next year's draft. Pick 27 this year is unlikely to end up any later than pick 32. I would be shocked if it ends up less than a 15 pick difference - most likely more.
 
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If Melbourne finish mid table, there is no way it is only a 9 pick difference. Melbourne finished mid table this year and their 3rd rounder is pick 50. All the free agency compo, etc still needs to be added to next year's draft. Pick 27 this year is unlikely to end up any later than pick 32. I would be shocked if it ends up less than a 15 pick difference - most likely more.
Im confident it will be within 15 when taking into account access to the best kids of the given pool

A heap more academy kids this year than next i believe
 
I still think they need to check on Craig Cameron , in all spots bribery happen .
I'm not sure this one is such a bribery red flag. Just another measure of how little we know about any kids in this draft outside rd 1. I trust Wells but if it was me I'm not even sure I'd have made this trade
 
Im confident it will be within 15 when taking into account access to the best kids of the given pool

A heap more academy kids this year than next i believe
Plus there's the depth. There's going to be kids who should have gone 2nd round this year showing up in the 3rd round next year because they just didn't get the opportunity to show their ability
 

Peel67skin

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I'm not sure this one is such a bribery red flag. Just another measure of how little we know about any kids in this draft outside rd 1. I trust Wells but if it was me I'm not even sure I'd have made this trade
No harm checking , if a person or club done nothing wrong they have nothing to be afraid of . Eg former Geelong and Essendon coach Thompson , nobody know did criag Cameron receive any give from player managers or from clubs .
 
Aug 13, 2006
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Pick 33+ in a terrible draft for a pick that most likely is 40-50 in a stronger draft isn't the worst deal of all time. It just doesn't seem like it's the best possible deal they could've done right now.

I just can't believe when it gets to draft night and pick 33 or whatever this pick is on the clock as someone wouldn't have offered a future 2nd rounder or a future 3rd packaged with a future 4th or some other upgrade.

There's always someone who slips down the order and a team willing to trade up.

It's certainly worth asking why the Cats have been the beneficiaries of the Suns willingness to throw away draft capital two years in a row. If I'm going in on conspiracy theories I'd think something like the league making sure the Jeremy Cameron deal got done to appease a big name free agent and GWS then sees the Cats owed a favour and the Suns are told to fulfil it.

Because the bigger problem is this is highlighting just how ridiculous the Suns concessions were. They've been keen to just burn through picks because they've had such a huge haul of talent come in. They are building super team level talent and it's infuriating.
 
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Pick 33+ in a terrible draft for a pick that most likely is 40-50 in a stronger draft isn't the worst deal of all time. It just doesn't seem like it's the best possible deal they could've done right now.

I just can't believe when it gets to draft night and pick 33 or whatever this pick is on the clock as someone wouldn't have offered a future 2nd rounder or a future 3rd packaged with a future 4th or some other upgrade.

There's always someone who slips down the order and a team willing to trade up.

It's certainly worth asking why the Cats have been the beneficiaries of the Suns willingness to throw away draft capital two years in a row. If I'm going in on conspiracy theories I'd think something like the league making sure the Jeremy Cameron deal got done to appease a big name free agent and GWS then sees the Cats owed a favour and the Suns are told to fulfil it.

Because the bigger problem is this is highlighting just how ridiculous the Suns concessions were. They've been keen to just burn through picks because they've had such a huge haul of talent come in. They are building super team level talent and it's infuriating.
The issue with waiting for draft night is teams know we can't use it so they lowball us with future 4th's etc. Or even worse, no one offers us anything and we get nothing for it and have to skip our pick. It would be a huge risk to take in to draft night knowing we can't use it.
 

Peel67skin

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Pick 33+ in a terrible draft for a pick that most likely is 40-50 in a stronger draft isn't the worst deal of all time. It just doesn't seem like it's the best possible deal they could've done right now.

I just can't believe when it gets to draft night and pick 33 or whatever this pick is on the clock as someone wouldn't have offered a future 2nd rounder or a future 3rd packaged with a future 4th or some other upgrade.

There's always someone who slips down the order and a team willing to trade up.

It's certainly worth asking why the Cats have been the beneficiaries of the Suns willingness to throw away draft capital two years in a row. If I'm going in on conspiracy theories I'd think something like the league making sure the Jeremy Cameron deal got done to appease a big name free agent and GWS then sees the Cats owed a favour and the Suns are told to fulfil it.

Because the bigger problem is this is highlighting just how ridiculous the Suns concessions were. They've been keen to just burn through picks because they've had such a huge haul of talent come in. They are building super team level talent and it's infuriating.
Is terrible trade , some GCS supporters said if you wait until draft night it could be 4th round pick or nothing , the flexibility of mind just not there , how hard to allocate a senior list spot and pick a player at 27.
 
Pick 33+ in a terrible draft for a pick that most likely is 40-50 in a stronger draft isn't the worst deal of all time. It just doesn't seem like it's the best possible deal they could've done right now.

I just can't believe when it gets to draft night and pick 33 or whatever this pick is on the clock as someone wouldn't have offered a future 2nd rounder or a future 3rd packaged with a future 4th or some other upgrade.

There's always someone who slips down the order and a team willing to trade up.

It's certainly worth asking why the Cats have been the beneficiaries of the Suns willingness to throw away draft capital two years in a row. If I'm going in on conspiracy theories I'd think something like the league making sure the Jeremy Cameron deal got done to appease a big name free agent and GWS then sees the Cats owed a favour and the Suns are told to fulfil it.

Because the bigger problem is this is highlighting just how ridiculous the Suns concessions were. They've been keen to just burn through picks because they've had such a huge haul of talent come in. They are building super team level talent and it's infuriating.
In not sure plthe pick swap for Jeremy Sharp was throwing away draft capital either when you consider that pick will be around p15 in a worse draft. Best case they get maybe Archie Perkins after waiting a year to start developing the player? Not sure which I'd take
 

Peel67skin

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In not sure plthe pick swap for Jeremy Sharp was throwing away draft capital either when you consider that pick will be around p15 in a worse draft. Best case they get maybe Archie Perkins after waiting a year to start developing the player? Not sure which I'd take
I don't mind Nick Cox or chapman . I rather use pick 27 on Shannon Neale , Brodie lake and developing them one year earlier than future 3rd round.
GCS list management team is the most lazy in AFL , Fremantle get rid of their list manager start of the year - former GCS Recruitment assistant.
Every year just pick first round players and academy players . No talent identification after first round .
 
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Pick 33+ in a terrible draft for a pick that most likely is 40-50 in a stronger draft isn't the worst deal of all time. It just doesn't seem like it's the best possible deal they could've done right now.

I just can't believe when it gets to draft night and pick 33 or whatever this pick is on the clock as someone wouldn't have offered a future 2nd rounder or a future 3rd packaged with a future 4th or some other upgrade.

There's always someone who slips down the order and a team willing to trade up.

It's certainly worth asking why the Cats have been the beneficiaries of the Suns willingness to throw away draft capital two years in a row. If I'm going in on conspiracy theories I'd think something like the league making sure the Jeremy Cameron deal got done to appease a big name free agent and GWS then sees the Cats owed a favour and the Suns are told to fulfil it.

Because the bigger problem is this is highlighting just how ridiculous the Suns concessions were. They've been keen to just burn through picks because they've had such a huge haul of talent come in. They are building super team level talent and it's infuriating.
Also, why would the suns be seeking to fulfil some supposed debt to Geelong accrued by GWS?

The Jeremy Cameron trade wasn't even really unbalanced either. It's just Q anon theory extending Q anon theory.
 
Aug 13, 2006
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In not sure plthe pick swap for Jeremy Sharp was throwing away draft capital either when you consider that pick will be around p15 in a worse draft. Best case they get maybe Archie Perkins after waiting a year to start developing the player? Not sure which I'd take
They could factor in the academies but I don't think they could foresee the pandemic, it was always going to be pick 27 for pick 15 and that's hard to justify. Obviously they really liked Sharp but to me they did that deal so they knew the pick couldn't be stripped from them this year as it really should.

The AFL implemented a trade ban on their last priority pick next year to prevent them doing something similar.
 

Johnny Bananas

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It's so high-concept. Tell me more about "the narrative".
Brisbane lost five of their best young players at the end of 2013. Come 2018 they were attracting high quality players like Lachie Neale, but they needed to make acquisitions like Charlie Cameron first, a player who actually wanted to be there even though they paid slight overs based on his output to that point. Of course, Cameron went on to greatly outperform that valuation so he looks like a steal now. But he was an important part of the cultural change. So was Luke Hodge with his leadership and experience. Neale wouldn't have come without other solid veterans having chosen the Lions first. After 2017, draftees didn't piss off after two years at the Lions, either. That's what I mean by narrative change. Since 2018 Gold Coast also have gone from every good young player leaving to almost everyone staying.
 
They could factor in the academies but I don't think they could foresee the pandemic, it was always going to be pick 27 for pick 15 and that's hard to justify. Obviously they really liked Sharp but to me they did that deal so they knew the pick couldn't be stripped from them this year as it really should.

The AFL implemented a trade ban on their last priority pick next year to prevent them doing something similar.
I don't think the pandemic has really affected the first round, it's picks after 30 that aren't being valued.

Probably their inability to trade it hurt them in that one sure, but I don't think they're going to end up with a materially worse player
 
Aug 13, 2006
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Also, why would the suns be seeking to fulfil some supposed debt to Geelong accrued by GWS?

The Jeremy Cameron trade wasn't even really unbalanced either. It's just Q anon theory extending Q anon theory.
The rational part of me thinks the Giants stuffed up the Cameron trade giving 2 picks that might be no worse than 2 of the ones they got in.

The Q Anon part of me thinks S Hocking still works for the Cats. When Tom Hawkins plays a full season shoving guys in the back every ruck contest you wonder where the direction of that is coming from. Gold Coast got way too many list concessions, in order for the AFL to save face they've quietly asked the suns to redirect some of that spare draft capital to appease two of their favourite clubs - the Cats and Giants.

The Cats need all the help they can get because the Government keep kicking in for their new stadium, which equals more revenue, which equals happy league bosses.

I'm getting real Q Anon here but the whole league is designed so the executives at the top keep making their big pay cheques. You can question how blatant they are to achieve that but it's pretty clear this year that the aim of the game is to make sure gravy train never stops rolling along. Trimming list sizes and lowering draft pick pay, cutting down the footy departments caps, it's all designed so no one at the top suffers.
 
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