Autopsy Pies 2015 likely ladder place

[Heir_Apparent]

Hi guys, so we have played half of the competition so far and I know it is a fairly easy run up until the bye, so I thought based on what I've seen so far I would actually be serious and take my time doing the AFL ladder predictor.



1 Dockers
2 Eagles
3 Hawks
4 Swans
5 Crows
6 Cats
7 Power
8 Kangaroos
9 Pies
10 Tigers
11 Giants
12 Dogs
13 Dons
And the rest




I know, why the **** are we 9th, I'm an idiot, I've somehow made a mistake.

Well, try it yourself. I was as unbiased as possible, there was a period where it felt like I clicked "Pies lose" about 4 times in a row, but I sure hope it doesn't happen like that, 9th would be a waste.
Getting at least 1 final will be crucial for fast tracking our developing youth and then we should expect another step up in 2016.


Go try it yourself here: http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor

and share your results!

 

[ThisIsJake]

Well.... i'm not so good at admitting losses, so i've got us top with 200%+.

 

[100volt1]

Without using this i'd put us anywhere between 5th-7th. But would love us at fourth. A season is a marathon, not a sprint as we found our last year...

 

[neilk]

 

[Bard]

I tried to be pretty even with us... But still had us on 14 wins which still seems very unlikely, but we'll drop games we should win, and win some we should lose I guess. Anyway finished with:

1. Fremantle
2. Sydney
3. West Coast
4. Hawthorn
5. Adelaide
6. Collingwood
7. North Melbourne
8. Port Adelaide

Outside of us & North Melbourne (although historically they have better second halves to their seasons) it seems pretty accurate in regards to the best teams by performance so far this year, but 9 weeks isn't a great amount to work with!

FWIW I had Carlton, Brisbane and Gold Coast sharing last on 3 wins, Gold Coast winning the spoon on 1.5% less than Brisbane.

 

[100volt1]

According to my prediction, or as it goes by, it's got us at fourth at seasons end.

The games i reckon we'll lose are;
Round 13 - Fremantle, Interstate trip
Round 14 - Hawthorn
Round 20 - Sydney, SCG

I would've had us to beat $ydney had we played them at ANZ Stadium, but we have not played them at SCG, or SCG altogether for that matter, since whenever it was a decade or so ago. I still reckon we'll lose one more game someone within there and Hawks will pip us to the fourth spot.

Whoever plays Fremantle in the prelim and knocks them off, WILL win the Premiership IMO, and i don't normally rate those purple scum.

 

[JackoSpades]

Penciled in losses Sydney, Fremantle,hawthorn and bulldogs.
WC in Melbourne 50\50
Wins against bottom 4 and if we can win all the games against teams 5-14th we finish 4-5th.
Unfortunately we would need to be more consistent against gws, power and geelong.
Unless we do a last year I cant see us missing finals altogether.

 

[legendstatus]

I went pretty hard on Pies and probably could have gone 50/50 on 2-3 games, this is what I got.

Just realised I got Norf in the top 4, Christ they have an easy draw!

 

[mattys123]

Mine;

Freo - 20 wins
Swans - 19
Hawks - 16
Eagles - 15
Port - 15
Adelaide - 14
Dogs - 14
Collingwood - 13
GWS - 13
North - 12
Tigers - 11
Geelong - 10
Essendon
Dees
Saints
Blues
Lions
Gold Coast

Either way it seems 13 wins will get you 8th spot if you have a decent percentage. So in that 3 week period where we are unlikely to win a game (HAwks, Dockers, Port) we need to maintain our percentage, the build it up again.

As I see it we can finish anywhere from 6th to 12th now, depending on what happens in those 50/50 games that we have left.

 

[Matt_352]

Mine;

Freo - 20 wins
Swans - 19
Hawks - 16
Eagles - 15
Port - 15
Adelaide - 14
Dogs - 14
Collingwood - 13
GWS - 13
North - 12
Tigers - 11
Geelong - 10
Essendon
Dees
Saints
Blues
Lions
Gold Coast

Either way it seems 13 wins will get you 8th spot if you have a decent percentage. So in that 3 week period where we are unlikely to win a game (HAwks, Dockers, Port) we need to maintain our percentage, the build it up again.

As I see it we can finish anywhere from 6th to 12th now, depending on what happens in those 50/50 games that we have left.

We can actually finish as high as 3rd.

 

[upnsmoke]

Losses to
Hawks
Power
Dockers
Swans
Giants
Bulldogs

 

[Baird]

Mine;

Freo - 20 wins
Swans - 19
Hawks - 16
Eagles - 15
Port - 15
Adelaide - 14
Dogs - 14
Collingwood - 13
GWS - 13
North - 12
Tigers - 11
Geelong - 10
Essendon
Dees
Saints
Blues
Lions
Gold Coast

Either way it seems 13 wins will get you 8th spot if you have a decent percentage. So in that 3 week period where we are unlikely to win a game (HAwks, Dockers, Port) we need to maintain our percentage, the build it up again.

As I see it we can finish anywhere from 6th to 12th now, depending on what happens in those 50/50 games that we have left.

Port are going to lose more than 2 games for the season

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

Losses to
Hawks
Power
Dockers
Swans
Giants
Bulldogs

I would expect us to win at least two of those. Power/Giants/Bulldogs well within our grasp.

 

[Jonno94]

1. Fremantle
2. Sydney
3. West Coast (Ahead of Hawks on %)
4. Hawthorn
5. Port Adelaide
6. Collingwood (Ahead of Tigers on %)
7. Richmond
8. North Melbourne

 

[NT.Thunder]

Interesting exercise and happy with where I have us finishing....maybe I had the B&W glasses on

 

[Baird]

Just did it, 14 wins. Losses to Hawthorn, Freo, Sydney, WC and Geelong

1. Fremantle
2. Sydney
3. Hawthorn
4. Adelaide
5. West Coast
6. Collingwood
7. Bulldogs
8. GWS

 

[Countrypie]

INteresting

Freo
Sydney
Hawthorn
West Coast
Collingwood
GWS
Adelaide
Bulldogs
Port
Nth

ANywhere between 4th and 10th is pretty much interchangeable 13 wins might be needed to make it

 

[unplugged]

If we lose to teams we are expected to lose to, and beat teams we are expected to beat on current form (including the likes of Port, Bulldogs, Essendon) etc we could finish 4th. Games like West Coast are huge to our hopes.

But as history suggests, you're bound to lose at least one.

 

[northpie]

I have
Swans 80
Freo 76
Hawks 64
Pies 60
Adel 56
GWS 56
Port 56
NM 56
with WCE 9th on 48

Finals predictor we get rolled by Freo in Prelim in WA and Swans roll Freo to become Premiers

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Who the hell knows.

If we win the next 2, we're 8-3. Exactly what we were last year and in Top 4. Then we collapsed in a heap. So, I"m going to make 2 assumptions right now based on current evidence.

1) We win the next 2 and go 8-3
2) We don't suddenly lose half the list to injury (if anything we seem to be about to filter everyone back through)

Assuming the above, 7th? 6th?

 

[Lockyer24]

I suspect we will just miss out this year. We made a little hay while the sun shined but the losses to Cats and Tiges might hurt us.
The draw seems more our enemy this year than fading away.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

That can't be right, my ladder predictor has us finishing 3rd. I think I only had us losing to Hawthorn and Freo for the rest of the year. Oops, way too carried away there. Problem with ladder predictors is, they're being done too far out and your current mood/most recent form is going to affect the outcome.

 

[CasuallyDressed]

I think we'll finish around 6th and hopefully snag a home final first week.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Just did it, 14 wins. Losses to Hawthorn, Freo, Sydney, WC and Geelong

1. Fremantle
2. Sydney
3. Hawthorn
4. Adelaide
5. West Coast
6. Collingwood
7. Bulldogs
8. GWS

See that's the thing. Sydney we never lose to, West Coast haven't beat us in Melbourne for along time and I doubt we lost to Geelong again. They had their one great game for the year against us, I doubt that happens again.

Hawthorn and Freo no doubt. But honestly, on current form (and only on current form) combined with players who are due to come back, we're going to become pretty hard to beat. Remember, 2 of the key players to come back aren't just quality, but they're experience. Ditto for Macaffer. Guys like Scharenberg and Freeman just add some polish. If we can keep the list relatively healthy, that puts pressure on spots, which generally has the team performing at a high level.

I'm aware I"m speaking from a place of excitement and the high of the North game, but what else do I have to go on? Fact ism, we've only lost 3 games, one of which we were pretty unlucky to.

 

[Baird]

See that's the thing. Sydney we never lose to, West Coast haven't beat us in Melbourne for along time and I doubt we lost to Geelong again. They had their one great game for the year against us, I doubt that happens again.

We are going to lose games we shouldn't, as every team does every year. I'm aware of our history against West Coast and Sydney and actually think we'll win those games but we do not look like a team that is capable of winning 16+ matches, so I just chose our losses against our toughest opponents.