Autopsy Pies 2015 likely ladder place

[Cousin of Daicos]

We are going to lose games we shouldn't, as every team does every year. I'm aware of our history against West Coast and Sydney and actually think we'll win those games but we do not look like a team that is capable of winning 16+ matches, so I just chose our losses against our toughest opponents.

Yeah fair enough. If you had asked me after the Geelong game, I would have had us on like 8 wins. That's the problem with ladder predictors.

 

[shizzle]

I have us finishing 8th.

 

[SuperSub17]

Problem is there are still 117 games to go. Even if you could tip a game with 90% accuracy (which is extremely good), the chance of tipping every game correctly is less than 1 in 200 thousand.

There is an excellent thread on the main board which has an algorithm that tips games very accurately and builds a probabilistic ladder from it - it has us finishing 6th I think, behind Freo, WC, Sydney, Hawthorn and GWS.

 

[ThexderX]

Tried to be unbiased, but if this comes true and Essendrug and Carltank end up where they are, life will be good.

 

[Wooljay]

I went in very conservatively and a touch pessimistically - still had us in the 8 somehow. Gave us a terrible run through the middle of the season, with only 1 win in like 7 weeks as well haha.

 

[Heir_Apparent]

I thought I was being pretty optimistic and had us 9th, crazy how so many people here are saying 4th - 8th range when only two weeks ago we looked slow and vulnerable and people were worried, even after the first half vs North the gameday board here was in hysterics, suddenly we find a rare 9 goal quarter and everyone forgot about it.

I think everyone is assuming we will win the next 2 games into the bye and go 8 - 3 again, I'm not saying we won't but history shows these games are danger and eventually this young team are going to slip again *coughRichmondandfirstquartervscats

 

[unplugged]

One thing this thread has taught me is that you'll likely need 13 wins to make the 8, pending some luck and percentage.

So we need to go at least 7-6 from here on to finish 13-9 at worst. Seems very possible to me.

 

[Yidaki]

This is what I got. Was an unbiased approach too.



Richmond in 9th

My Grand Final prediction is what I actually think will eventuate.

 

[jmac70]

This is what I got. Was an unbiased approach too.

View attachment 140586

Richmond in 9th

My Grand Final prediction is what I actually think will eventuate.

You have Port winning 16 games in a row to make the GF.

 

[Yidaki]

You have Port winning 16 games in a row to make the GF.

Yep.

 

[jmac70]

Yep.

Put it this way. If we assume very conservative odds of $1.70 for each Port win in that run, if you place a bet of $20 on Port and let it ride you would win over $165,000.

 

[Yidaki]

Put it this way. If we assume very conservative odds of $1.70 for each Port win in that run, if you place a bet of $20 on Port and let it ride you would win over $165,000.

There's no doubting they'll lose more games. However, I think they might get back onto something in the next few weeks.

 

[jmac70]

There's no doubting they'll lose more games. However, I think they might get back onto something in the next few weeks.

Hopefully we can set them on their arse again.

 

[Bard]

I thought I was being pretty optimistic and had us 9th, crazy how so many people here are saying 4th - 8th range when only two weeks ago we looked slow and vulnerable and people were worried, even after the first half vs North the gameday board here was in hysterics, suddenly we find a rare 9 goal quarter and everyone forgot about it.

I think everyone is assuming we will win the next 2 games into the bye and go 8 - 3 again, I'm not saying we won't but history shows these games are danger and eventually this young team are going to slip again *coughRichmondandfirstquartervscats

I agree completely, but when you're approaching these things you pretty much can only go on the form you're given. I could sit here and say how I think NM/Port will be big improvers in the second half, X might fall off a little, but when given the choice of going with 2014 form or 2015 form, you have to take the latter which means letting your decisions be driven by the romance of the season so far regardless of how unlikely the results may seem.

 

[PepperFace]

I still have us 8-12. We will run out of juice at some stage and the 3 big games in a row will not be healthy for my growing bald spot

 

[Go Pies!!!!!]

We can finish anywhere from 4th to 12th. hard run after the bye IF we win our next 2 games we will be 8-3.
Freo, Hawks, Port, Eagles, Dogs ..................... we need to win 2 of these games. 10-6
Melb, Car, Syd, Rich, Geel, Ess........ then split the last 6 will give us 13 which is finals.
The win last weekend has opened our season up obviously it never goes as easy as suggested above but finals are well within reach if injuries go our way and we win the games we should win.

I am predicting 14-8 which will have us between 4th to 6th

 

[PieNSauce]

Just for giggles, it would be amusing to look back at the pre-season prediction thread. I doubt too many would have had us inside the 8 let alone with a possibility of finishing as high as 4th. I personally think that there are some very optimistic predictions in this thread but the fact that people are happy to make them says much.

 

[Maggie5]

I had us finishing 8th in a previous thread, haven't changed my mind yet.

 

[tehnoodnub]

My ladder predictor attempt has us finishing 8th with 13 wins and a percentage of 115.5.

 

[5_Flockhart]

In summary I have us losing to
Hawks - 14
Power - 15
Swans - 20
Essendon- 23

And us beating -- Demons, Giants, Dockers, Eagles, Dogs, Demons, Blues, Tigers, Cats

I have tipped us to beat Fremantle, I think we match up well against them, and they are due for a loss (clutching straws I know). I have likened this season to 2008 when we managed to take points from Geelong. I think we could do it to the dockers this year.

I think Hawks have the mental advantage over us still and the Bombers usually go 1 for 1 with us now, and Power in Adelaide will have our measure I think.

I also have Fremantle going down to Hawks at Aurora and Kangaroos at Etihad

 

[Baltimore Jack]

I had us finishing 8th in a previous thread, haven't changed my mind yet.

Me too

 

[Old Spice]

How do you capture the ladder image?

 

[Wooljay]

How do you capture the ladder image?

I used the Windows Snipping Tool and just uploaded it to imgur.

I'm sure there's an easier way though...

 

[GoalSneak07]

1 Dockers
2 Eagles
3 Hawks
4 Swans
5 Crows
6 Cats
7 Power
8 Kangaroos
9 Pies
10 Tigers
11 Giants
12 Dogs
13 Dons
And the rest

Damn mate, I'd rate the Cats a far worse side then the Bulldogs and the Giants as well as us you must have given them the choccies in a few big games. Having said that your top 4 looks pretty solid to what I'd go with, maybe the Swannies snagging 2nd just ahead of the Hawks and Coasters. But I think the rest is a raffle at the minute I still wouldn't rule out the Giants for a possible run at the top 4.

1 Dockers
2 Eagles
3 Hawks
4 Swans

5. Giants
6. Richmond
7. Power
8. Doggies

That would be my ladder.

 

[Maggie5]

How do you capture the ladder image?

I downloaded a free program called Fastone Image Viewer that I use for editing photos and it has a facility under, File, called screen capture which takes a snapshot of your screen then you go into Edit and crop the section you want to keep. It is a great little program.

If the file is too big (MB), I then use Photorazor (also free) to reduce the size of the file without reducing quality.