Pies narrowing window, last chance saloon.

Carringbush2010

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 6, 2016
7,218
4,081
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Pines Football Club
There's been other threads on the main board around WC flag prospects, stopping the tigers, the only 3 that can win it etc.

So in before that, good enough for the goose good enough for the gander.

My take on why the Pies can and can't win it.

Can:

  • There's no doubting the Pies system when it's on, it's not personnel reliant like other teams. They literally suffocate the opposition into submission to turnover, hence their high possession rate. It has proven when it's on as almost impossible to defeat.
  • Their core group is in the optimum age bracket. There's a misnomer that Collingwood is an old team, on face value yes they are. But they have a number of players of 50 to 100 gamers in the 24 - 28 yo bracket. Take out old hats like Varcoe, Reid, Pendles and the 'age' drops dramatically.
  • Unfinished business. There's a lot of talk about the Pies will be mentally broken after the pf and gf losses - yeah I don't buy that. Might as well write off GWS, no one's doin that. If anything logically thinking it will steel their resolve.
Can't:

  • The ageing stars, Pendles is pretty much irreplaceable, there has never been another player that has literal ability to bend time to his will - he pre empts things before they happen and usually correctly. At the moment he looks like it's carry on nothing to see here, but I seriously doubt he can carry his current form past this year. Father time gets everyone. Varcoe probably less important from a profile point of view but his pressure epitomises the Pies game plan, can he get enough game time? If so can he still have that necessary impact?
  • Executing the game plan, 2019 was an experimental year for the Pies from a system point of view. They experimented with 'controlling transition' with disastrous results, see the North game, yet they still made a prelim as hot favourites. The mind boggles. If they continue to tweak on the path of controlling transition rather than swarm and spread that served them so well then simply they won't win it. Bookmark that.
  • The injury curse, even though when they play the way they should equals not personnel reliant you still have to have enough players to make a starting 22. For memory they were down to 27 available to pick from at least once in the last two seasons. That is far from ideal. One would argue that not having Moore in the gf was the deciding factor, even though I don't buy that it's not ideal. The Pies are arguably the worst league wide for injuries, I'd argue management hasn't been ideal in this area either.
  • Other teams windows are wider. This is key, it's not that Pies windows has lessened but other teams have widened namely WC, Richmond and GWS. I'd argue that everything has to fall into place to give the Pies an opportunity, that might be under rating, I certainly hope so. It fell into place this year with Hawthorn handing us top 4 at the expense of the Eagles and then suffocated a wily Geelong outfit in the QF - still blew their chance.
I maybe wrong but I'm more pessimistic than optimistic about the Pies, sure if they get their mojo there are few if any that can defeat the system. That's the $64 thousand dollar question though, it's not if they can they certainly can but will they?

Is it last chance saloon or is it not given already established stars beginning their careers like De Goey, Moore, Stephenson and another at least 5 productive years from Grundy?

Are they a contender or not? Very curious position the Pies find themselves in.

Discuss.
 
Last edited:

Kwality

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 14, 2011
21,925
7,664
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Renault F1
There's been other threads on the main board around WC flag prospects, stopping the tigers, the only 3 that can win it etc.

So in before that, good enough for the goose good enough for the gander.

My take on why the Pies can and can't win it.

Can:

  • There's no doubting the Pies system when it's on, it's not personnel reliant like other teams. They literally suffocate the opposition into submission to turnover, hence their high possession rate. It has proven when it's on as almost impossible to defeat.
  • Their core group is in the optimum age bracket. There's a misnomer that Collingwood is an old team, on face value yes they are. But they have a number of players of 50 to 100 gamers in the 24 - 28 yo bracket. Take out old hats like Varcoe, Reid, Pendles and the 'age' drops dramatically.
  • Unfinished business. There's a lot of talk about the Pies will be mentally broken after the pf and gf losses - yeah I don't buy that. Might as well write off GWS, no one's doin that. If anything logically thinking it will steel their resolve.
Can't:

  • The ageing stars, Pendles is pretty much irreplaceable, there has never been another player that has literal ability to bend time to his will - he pre empts things before they happen and usually correctly. At the moment he looks like it's carry on nothing to see here, but I seriously doubt he can carry his current form past this year. Father time gets everyone. Varcoe probably less important from a profile point of view but his pressure epitomises the Pies game plan, can he get enough game time? If so can he still have that necessary impact?
  • Executing the game plan, 2019 was an experimental year for the Pies from a system point of view. They experimented with 'controlling transition' with disastrous results, see the North game, yet they still made a prelim as hot favourites. The mind boggles. If they continue to tweak on the path of controlling transition rather than swarm and spread that served them so well then simply they won't win it. Bookmark that.
  • The injury curse, even though when they play the way they should equals not personnel reliant you still have to have enough players to make a starting 22. For memory they were down to 27 available to pick from at least once in the last two seasons. That is far from ideal. One would argue that not having Moore in the gf was the deciding factor, even though I don't buy that it's not ideal. The Pies are arguably the worst league wide for injuries, I'd argue management hasn't been ideal in this area either.
  • Other teams windows are wider. This is key, it's not that Pies windows has lessened but other teams have widened namely WC, Richmond and GWS. I'd argue that everything has to fall into place to give the Pies an opportunity, that might be under rating, I certainly hope so. It fell into place this year with Hawthorn handing us top 4 at the expense of the Eagles and then suffocated a wily Geelong outfit in the QF - still blew their chance.
I maybe wrong but I'm more pessimistic than optimistic about the Pies, sure if they get their mojo there are few if any that can defeat the system. That's the $64 thousand dollar question though, it's not if they can they certainly can but will they?

Is it last chance saloon or is it not given already established stars beginning their careers like De Goey, Moore, Stephenson and another at least 5 productive years from Grundy?

Are they a contender or not? Very curious position the Pies find themselves in.

Discuss.
Grundys best is in front of him - they are contenders.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Lsta062

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 15, 2014
12,074
24,182
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Chelsea
Collingwood are a little tough to place as the optimism around them has disappeared a little this off-season for me.

However, had a bit of an injury crisis in 2019 and they still managed to go a kick away from making back-to-back Grand Finals. For as long as Grundy is fit, I think they are still contenders in 2020. I don’t think their window will remain open for long though
 

Yojimbo

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 14, 2012
8,917
7,721
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Like the Western Bulldogs the Collingwood side chose to record it's lowest volume for the year at the most
important time 337 Disposals in the Preliminary Final against the GWS Giants, before that the lowest they
had recorded for the whole year was 373 Disposals against Sydney at the SCG.

Collingwood went 400+ Disposals 11 x times for the year for 11 x times Wins and Adam Treloar was the
top man in the accumulation stakes going 30+ Disposals an amazing 18 x times for the year one ahead
of Jackson Macrae on 17 with Andrew Gaff rounding out the top three on 16.

More bang for their buck should be high on the wish list of both Collingwood and the Bulldogs because
there is no point being the man in the part of the ground without the goal posts. "Tired" was the word
I used for Collingwood on my sliding ladder, but their accumulation rating of 4,590 2nd in the AFL
behind West Coast 4,646 keeps them in contention even if their impact does not match their accumulation.
 

10571z

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 23, 2006
9,307
9,340
AFL Club
Collingwood
We’ve been up for a while, it’s hard to sustain it. I hope we can but I wouldn’t be surprised for us to be in the lower part of the 8.

Other teams are always improving and it’s only a matter of time until we have new contenders
 

Cdog71

Premium Platinum
Sep 21, 2017
2,444
6,340
AFL Club
Richmond
The idea it’s not personnel reliant is a bit misleading, it is about roles and systems and who is best in that role.
I think what theyre missing is someone who is really good at winning the ball in the air fwd of centre and can be a threat from that.
I think Grundy is a great player and one of the best in the comp but his strengths are being a follower in the stoppage not so much the traditional Ruck who can drift Fwd or back for a mark.
I was expecting the pies to throw everything at J Cameron to get him.
 

docks

Premium Platinum
Aug 16, 2009
1,007
615
AFL Club
Collingwood
Like the Western Bulldogs the Collingwood side chose to record it's lowest volume for the year at the most
important time 337 Disposals in the Preliminary Final against the GWS Giants, before that the lowest they
had recorded for the whole year was 373 Disposals against Sydney at the SCG.

Collingwood went 400+ Disposals 11 x times for the year for 11 x times Wins and Adam Treloar was the
top man in the accumulation stakes going 30+ Disposals an amazing 18 x times for the year one ahead
of Jackson Macrae on 17 with Andrew Gaff rounding out the top three on 16.

More bang for their buck should be high on the wish list of both Collingwood and the Bulldogs because
there is no point being the man in the part of the ground without the goal posts. "Tired" was the word
I used for Collingwood on my sliding ladder, but their accumulation rating of 4,590 2nd in the AFL
behind West Coast 4,646 keeps them in contention even if their impact does not match their accumulation.
I think you will find the disposal count for both teams PF day were impacted by heavy rain for most of the game. After all, GWS only had 338.
 

Gavin Excell

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 22, 2007
29,184
31,625
AFL Club
Geelong
Stephenson has become a critical player for them in that last link system. Fast and has goal nous. Cant believe that long break did him any good.

Agree on Pendlebury being irreplaceable. Was he showing signs of slowing last season?
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Turnover

Club Legend
May 30, 2015
1,346
1,754
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Liverpool
Pendles has always been slow.

If he was any slower it'd be like watching Gary Abblett chasing after a defensive tackle.
Pendlebury doesn’t need to have quick leg speed, he has three good years still. He is freakish getting out of traffic and sucks defenders to him.
 

Captain_Bender

Premiership Player
May 21, 2015
3,075
4,226
AFL Club
Richmond
Never had a premiership window, overrated due to a easy fixture in 2018 and mediocre players such as De Goey having one off half good years
 

Yojimbo

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 14, 2012
8,917
7,721
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
I think you will find the disposal count for both teams PF day were impacted by heavy rain for most of the game. After all, GWS only had 338.
True it was wet but GWS kept sides to 265, 288, 305, 307, 308, 310, 313, 315, and 319 during the year often
in the dry, you could say they were good at it. Maybe you are hinting that high possession sides like the Pies
cannot play in the wet when their handball count drops to 128 also their lowest tally for the year. :eek:
 

Tenny

🏆🏆
Suspended
Jan 7, 2020
806
1,570
AFL Club
Richmond
Showed no respect to GWS with all their outs, and by the time they pulled their finger out it was too late
“Showed no respect” is a cop out. You were beaten by the better team. You kicked some late goals because Davis could barely walk and GWS were tiring, not because you all of a sudden started trying lmao.
 

Carringbush2010

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 6, 2016
7,218
4,081
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Pines Football Club
Stephenson has become a critical player for them in that last link system. Fast and has goal nous. Cant believe that long break did him any good.

Agree on Pendlebury being irreplaceable. Was he showing signs of slowing last season?
He's never been a quick player, he just makes time slow down to his will somehow. I gather what you mean by 'slowing' is he losing 'impact'. Not at all, an AA Guernsey and a 300 gamer in 2019. But father time is father time has to catch him sooner or later.
 

Carringbush2010

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 6, 2016
7,218
4,081
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Pines Football Club
We’ve been up for a while, it’s hard to sustain it. I hope we can but I wouldn’t be surprised for us to be in the lower part of the 8.

Other teams are always improving and it’s only a matter of time until we have new contenders
We've been up for two seasons, other teams have been up for longer.
 

Top Bottom