Pies narrowing window, last chance saloon.

Carringbush2010

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collingwood should have a real crack this year....have the team just need to gell.
Yeah they should, no repeat of that prelim - it wasn't reflective of their best footy, way off the boil.

They don't have the team of wc or giants have, they're arguably more system reliant than any other current list. So yeah gelling or for want of a better team executing their system is not negotiable. Sure that's more reliable than having a plethora of stars at your disposal because relying on executing fundamental football is not personnel reliant like surgical transition based teams.

That's the glimmer of hope they have.
 

Carringbush2010

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I think we've seen the best Collingwood have to offer and while they could still win it, circumstances would have to go their way big time.
I have to agree, their best beats anyone IMO. They're gonna have to be 'on' at the end of the year to pull it off, sure same for every other contender - still pies are more reliant on being 'on' than the others.
 

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Mofra

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I think we've seen the best Collingwood have to offer and while they could still win it, circumstances would have to go their way big time.
They were a kick away from a flag in 18 and have lost foot soldiers but nobody they rely on.

If Pendles and Sidebottom can stay on the paddock as th 'older' brigade, and Grundy is available at finals time, they are in with a hunt.
I actually think their midfield works better without Beams as every starting combo needs a 'stopper' who will block/tackle/cover the defensive side for their team and Collingwood have excellent examples of that type of player (Wills/Sier/Greenwood).
 

Carringbush2010

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They were a kick away from a flag in 18 and have lost foot soldiers but nobody they rely on.

If Pendles and Sidebottom can stay on the paddock as th 'older' brigade, and Grundy is available at finals time, they are in with a hunt.
I actually think their midfield works better without Beams as every starting combo needs a 'stopper' who will block/tackle/cover the defensive side for their team and Collingwood have excellent examples of that type of player (Wills/Sier/Greenwood).
Fair argument, I've stated at times I think the Pies are going forward not backwards but not as forward as other contenders. You could speculate that the window shut in 2019, not many would but it is a viable argument.

On the flipside if they put it together at the right time (finals) then their ideal system is the most difficult to stop - that's fair speculation.

So the argument for the flipside is that it's likely Pendles, Sides and Grundy will be fronting up week in week out, still need to execute their game though.

I don't think there's any middle ground, they're either going to top 2 or 4 and have form going in or end up mid table struggling to make the 8 IMO.
 

master bate

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Jordan De Goey and Moore are now relevant in this discussion. Simply, Pies don't win a flag without them.

So, on that fact are they going to go gangbusters to up their value? Ah yeah, that's a given. Is that the one silver lining of them possibly leaving the club, play balls out to up their value and a flag comes along with that effort. I'd like to think so and very possible.

My question is what is their priority Flag or money? And does that really matter considering the circumstances outlined?

If we get a flag out them prioritising their value then happy days, if they stay after that flag then bonus! and that would mean they're team focused and would forgo the extra $$ for another flag tilt -kudos.

If they left for more money after upping their value by winning a flag through illustrious seasons then also happy days!

Win win!
I can't see Moore leaving on the back of another successful year. I know he's the type of player Sydney love to throw a stack of cash at but I think he's pretty tight with Buckley and probably feels like he owes the club given how many games he's missed with injuries. Might be a tough negotiation but I think he'll stay if things are working out for him.

On the other hand De Goey could be the next Martin or he could be the next Stringer (but even more talented). There could be a number where the Pies walk away. I can't imagine Collingwood really want to pay him more than Grundy and Moore if the 2 big guys are putting up All Australian type seasons whilst De Goey is serving up elite talent but unreliability.

Completely different sports and money isn't openly talked about as much here but the New England Patriots have a policy that no one earns more than Tom Brady. I can imagine the Pies would feel the same with Grundy setting the high water mark.
 

Carringbush2010

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I can't see Moore leaving on the back of another successful year. I know he's the type of player Sydney love to throw a stack of cash at but I think he's pretty tight with Buckley and probably feels like he owes the club given how many games he's missed with injuries. Might be a tough negotiation but I think he'll stay if things are working out for him.

On the other hand De Goey could be the next Martin or he could be the next Stringer (but even more talented). There could be a number where the Pies walk away. I can't imagine Collingwood really want to pay him more than Grundy and Moore if the 2 big guys are putting up All Australian type seasons whilst De Goey is serving up elite talent but unreliability.

Completely different sports and money isn't openly talked about as much here but the New England Patriots have a policy that no one earns more than Tom Brady. I can imagine the Pies would feel the same with Grundy setting the high water mark.
Great post!

I think the whole club is pretty tight all round, post 2017 there's been a culture and attitude improvement club wide.

As for JDG - one could argue reliability will come, his attitude adjustment after the d&d incident has come on leaps and bounds and knocking back the North offer also speaks volumes.

It's clear these two are likely seeking a flag and see it in this group, the question is that their end game or is it they view it as a pathway to increase their value or both?

As for your Patriots example, that was used by the Pies in their four peat - everyone on an even keel as far as payments were concerned and that drove the success. Yes I know it was a non professional comp then but was the highest standard and monetary payments and rewards were used.
 

NonPhixion

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Aside from having a reliable KPF its a pretty well balanced team. Although the midfield is probably the most over-rated in the league. I actually think its the weak link in our side. Forward line composes dangerous mid-sized threats who are nightmare match-ups. Backline is imo one of the best in the league and is very solid. But if Grundy goes down we are pretty much f’ed and you can put a line through the season...
 

Carringbush2010

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Aside from having a reliable KPF its a pretty well balanced team. Although the midfield is probably the most over-rated in the league. I actually think its the weak link in our side. Forward line composes dangerous mid-sized threats who are nightmare match-ups. Backline is imo one of the best in the league and is very solid. But if Grundy goes down we are pretty much f’ed and you can put a line through the season...
There is one true upside, the well balanced side IS a result of culture improvement after 2017. The list as good as it is, had almost zero change after that year and is not as good as a wc or giants, and the ideal system they have is not KPF reliant as those two and many other teams.

True if Grundy and / or even Pendles goes down it's game over given their exceptional week in week out performances, on the other side of that coin they're super durable athletes. I have every confidence they'll play most if not all games this year.
 

Spacedog

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The window will shut once Pendlebury and Sidebottom retire unless they find some other gun mids somehow. Their midfield looks pretty weak without those two in it
 

juss

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There's been other threads on the main board around WC flag prospects, stopping the tigers, the only 3 that can win it etc.

So in before that, good enough for the goose good enough for the gander.

My take on why the Pies can and can't win it.

Can:

  • There's no doubting the Pies system when it's on, it's not personnel reliant like other teams. They literally suffocate the opposition into submission to turnover, hence their high possession rate. It has proven when it's on as almost impossible to defeat.
  • Their core group is in the optimum age bracket. There's a misnomer that Collingwood is an old team, on face value yes they are. But they have a number of players of 50 to 100 gamers in the 24 - 28 yo bracket. Take out old hats like Varcoe, Reid, Pendles and the 'age' drops dramatically.
  • Unfinished business. There's a lot of talk about the Pies will be mentally broken after the pf and gf losses - yeah I don't buy that. Might as well write off GWS, no one's doin that. If anything logically thinking it will steel their resolve.
Can't:

  • The ageing stars, Pendles is pretty much irreplaceable, there has never been another player that has literal ability to bend time to his will - he pre empts things before they happen and usually correctly. At the moment he looks like it's carry on nothing to see here, but I seriously doubt he can carry his current form past this year. Father time gets everyone. Varcoe probably less important from a profile point of view but his pressure epitomises the Pies game plan, can he get enough game time? If so can he still have that necessary impact?
  • Executing the game plan, 2019 was an experimental year for the Pies from a system point of view. They experimented with 'controlling transition' with disastrous results, see the North game, yet they still made a prelim as hot favourites. The mind boggles. If they continue to tweak on the path of controlling transition rather than swarm and spread that served them so well then simply they won't win it. Bookmark that.
  • The injury curse, even though when they play the way they should equals not personnel reliant you still have to have enough players to make a starting 22. For memory they were down to 27 available to pick from at least once in the last two seasons. That is far from ideal. One would argue that not having Moore in the gf was the deciding factor, even though I don't buy that it's not ideal. The Pies are arguably the worst league wide for injuries, I'd argue management hasn't been ideal in this area either.
  • Other teams windows are wider. This is key, it's not that Pies windows has lessened but other teams have widened namely WC, Richmond and GWS. I'd argue that everything has to fall into place to give the Pies an opportunity, that might be under rating, I certainly hope so. It fell into place this year with Hawthorn handing us top 4 at the expense of the Eagles and then suffocated a wily Geelong outfit in the QF - still blew their chance.
I maybe wrong but I'm more pessimistic than optimistic about the Pies, sure if they get their mojo there are few if any that can defeat the system. That's the $64 thousand dollar question though, it's not if they can they certainly can but will they?

Is it last chance saloon or is it not given already established stars beginning their careers like De Goey, Moore, Stephenson and another at least 5 productive years from Grundy?

Are they a contender or not? Very curious position the Pies find themselves in.

Discuss.
Fairly balanced post
Contender - Yes, I have them as one of the 6 teams that can win it.

Where they sit in that is probably 4th/5th favouritism for mine.

My biggest criticism is their KPF spearhead and KPD depth. De Goey is a star but hes a 1 on 1 player, not a pack crashing down the line target man. Its why I reckon they were keen on Lynch, he was the type need. I like Howe and Moore, but I dont think thats top shelf good enough compared to others and Moore also seems to be one of those that misses games.

They also seem to always cop injuries and that has to be management/fitness staff related, luck evens out over time, but Collingwood seem to be injured every year.

What I do like is their midfield rotation and ruck division, which are top 3 in the league.
 

Carringbush2010

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Fairly balanced post
Contender - Yes, I have them as one of the 6 teams that can win it.

Where they sit in that is probably 4th/5th favouritism for mine.

My biggest criticism is their KPF spearhead and KPD depth. De Goey is a star but hes a 1 on 1 player, not a pack crashing down the line target man. Its why I reckon they were keen on Lynch, he was the type need. I like Howe and Moore, but I dont think thats top shelf good enough compared to others and Moore also seems to be one of those that misses games.

They also seem to always cop injuries and that has to be management/fitness staff related, luck evens out over time, but Collingwood seem to be injured every year.

What I do like is their midfield rotation and ruck division, which are top 3 in the league.
If you analyze it more you'll find we come to the same position using different theories. How I see it differently:
  • Their ideal game relies less on KP than other teams
  • That's why their KPD's are considered top 4
  • Whilst a KPF would be a bonus, it's not absolutely necessary with their ideal game (there's not really a lot of evidence the Pies pursued Lynch as intently as others btw - lack of cap space may have a bearing)
If they're off that little tiny bit they'll struggle to make the 8, if they're on like for the most part of 18 they'll go into top 4 with form at finals time. No in between for mine.
 

Buckleys_Chance

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Yeah they should, no repeat of that prelim - it wasn't reflective of their best footy, way off the boil.

They don't have the team of wc or giants have, they're arguably more system reliant than any other current list. So yeah gelling or for want of a better team executing their system is not negotiable. Sure that's more reliable than having a plethora of stars at your disposal because relying on executing fundamental football is not personnel reliant like surgical transition based teams.

That's the glimmer of hope they have.
They didn't turn up to that prelim, and IMO were already thinking about next week until they realised they were 7 goals down with a quarter to play (and only lost by 5 points!!). My hope is that this experience, as well as 2018, instill in the team, that they can't take anything for granted and are set for a big 2020. There are also a lot of senior players that might see 2020 as their last shot at a flag and really lead the group. That opinion is more optimism than anything, but I hope it comes to fruition.

I also think there will be a bit of slump after this year but they won't be long out of GF contention given some of the younger talent coming through.

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4tone

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This is highly optimistic, not impossible but it probably highlights the 'everything must go right' mantra. That's my opinion anyway, not because the Pies are going backwards, they're going forward but not as much as the tigs, wc and giants IMO.
If I'm high optimistic, what would you call Hinkleys big call for port? or the demons being back from hell, or is it any different to what Kennett spruiks every year about the hawks. Go ask Eddie what he's expecting as president for the pies this year, go ask him with his pies hat off, his expectations as footy expert would no lower for the pies. Bucks has had the boys 1min away 2 years ago and 4 quarters away last year from the ultimate, I see no reason why the pies can't go all the way this year.
 

Vassp

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Yeah they should, no repeat of that prelim - it wasn't reflective of their best footy, way off the boil.

They don't have the team of wc or giants have, they're arguably more system reliant than any other current list. So yeah gelling or for want of a better team executing their system is not negotiable. Sure that's more reliable than having a plethora of stars at your disposal because relying on executing fundamental football is not personnel reliant like surgical transition based teams.

That's the glimmer of hope they have.
Your team is good enough to win a GF, no doubt.....don’t be fooled by the system talk, personnel makes a big difference too, you need both.
 

Carringbush2010

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If I'm high optimistic, what would you call Hinkleys big call for port? or the demons being back from hell, or is it any different to what Kennett spruiks every year about the hawks. Go ask Eddie what he's expecting as president for the pies this year, go ask him with his pies hat off, his expectations as footy expert would no lower for the pies. Bucks has had the boys 1min away 2 years ago and 4 quarters away last year from the ultimate, I see no reason why the pies can't go all the way this year.
Fair call, I'm glad you have that optimism not like the pessimism in the op. I do wonder if I'm being overly pessimistic at times.

In any case it's hard to argue that teams like rich, wc and giants - on face value at least - it seems their windows are wider.

Or am I reading this all entirely wrong? I hope so.
 

Carringbush2010

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Your team is good enough to win a GF, no doubt.....don’t be fooled by the system talk, personnel makes a big difference too, you need both.
Of course personnel matters, IMO it's less so for teams like Rich & Pies because they drill down on football fundamentals like pressure and two way running etc. and build their plan around them.

Transition teams require more skilled players, I'm not saying the Pies or tiges for that matter don't possess such players but they're less reliant on them because of the way they play and more so those ball movement teams are susceptible to pressure teams - include Dees 2018.
 

Vassp

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Of course personnel matters, IMO it's less so for teams like Rich & Pies because they drill down on football fundamentals like pressure and two way running etc. and build their plan around them.

Transition teams require more skilled players, I'm not saying the Pies or tiges for that matter don't possess such players but they're less reliant on them because of the way they play and more so those ball movement teams are susceptible to pressure teams - include Dees 2018.
I like your post....

about five years ago we tried keepings off in the early years with dimma but did not have the players to implement that style, I used to think this was the way to play.

the game has long moved on from strictly 1v1 and players are guarding space and have been for ages.
our teams have plenty of skill and compared to the 90s teams we are much more skilful Overall.
we just choose to play a more effective type of football that holds up well in all conditions, wet weather, dry weather, pressure games and finals.
 

adammania9

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Nobody knows the real impacts but I wonder if there was a collective sigh of relief across the playing group on Beams finishing up
Beams not returning was the inevitable so it’s probably a good thing for the club that the monkey is off the back early and they have one less off-field thing to pay attention to.
 

Jen2310

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Nobody knows the real impacts but I wonder if there was a collective sigh of relief across the playing group on Beams finishing up
Probably. From what I have seen at training, Probably knowing he wouldn't be coming back, they were having fun and you can easily forget there was no Beams there tbh.
 

Visions

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Nobody knows the real impacts but I wonder if there was a collective sigh of relief across the playing group on Beams finishing up
I’m amazed that the club actually does so well in being contenders considering how our recruiting department keep on making monumental blunders.

Beams was one of them, never ever should have taken him back at the expense that was paid for him, most people knew that despite the notions of some of the diehard precious petals on the Collingwood board.

As for this year, will be in the mix again, but like usual will fail near the final hurdle(s).
 

adammania9

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I’m amazed that the club actually does so well in being contenders considering how our recruiting department keep on making monumental blunders.

Beams was one of them, never ever should have taken him back at the expense that was paid for him, most people knew that despite the notions of some of the diehard precious petals on the Collingwood board.

As for this year, will be in the mix again, but like usual will fail near the final hurdle(s).
Was worth the risk. Go back to 2018, we’d just lost the grand final by a kick because our midfield was worn down and beaten around the ball by the same side for the third time that season. Dayne Beams, a player who’d come in the Brownlow top ten the last two seasons, who was familiar with half the list and coaches, one of the best inside mids with elite goal sense says he wants to join the club. You don’t turn down those opportunities. When he played, we won games and he was playing at a much higher level than he was given credit for - not like an All-Australian but very solid. We were undoubtedly a better side when he was out there. But it hasn’t worked out, which is the nature of the beast - you win some and you lose some.
 

Visions

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Was worth the risk. Go back to 2018, we’d just lost the grand final by a kick because our midfield was worn down and beaten around the ball by the same side for the third time that season. Dayne Beams, a player who’d come in the Brownlow top ten the last two seasons, who was familiar with half the list and coaches, one of the best inside mids with elite goal sense says he wants to join the club. You don’t turn down those opportunities. When he played, we won games and he was playing at a much higher level than he was given credit for - not like an All-Australian but very solid. We were undoubtedly a better side when he was out there. But it hasn’t worked out, which is the nature of the beast - you win some and you lose some.
Considering his age and the issues that Beams had (and the powers to be at Collingwood would have known about them), it would have been worth the risk with a late pick and less money, not the rewards we were offering.

There was a lot of dissent on the Collingwood board from the day the trade was rumoured to be happening all the way through to now. They have been proven right.

Despite his departure ramifications will still be felt. One less player on the list to choose from when we could have been grooming a long term prospect and most likely a salary cap still to be counted. I don’t blame him for taking the deal, it’s the club at fault here.
 

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