There's been other threads on the main board around WC flag prospects, stopping the tigers, the only 3 that can win it etc.
So in before that, good enough for the goose good enough for the gander.
My take on why the Pies can and can't win it.
Can:
Is it last chance saloon or is it not given already established stars beginning their careers like De Goey, Moore, Stephenson and another at least 5 productive years from Grundy?
Are they a contender or not? Very curious position the Pies find themselves in.
Discuss.
So in before that, good enough for the goose good enough for the gander.
My take on why the Pies can and can't win it.
Can:
- There's no doubting the Pies system when it's on, it's not personnel reliant like other teams. They literally suffocate the opposition into submission to turnover, hence their high possession rate. It has proven when it's on as almost impossible to defeat.
- Their core group is in the optimum age bracket. There's a misnomer that Collingwood is an old team, on face value yes they are. But they have a number of players of 50 to 100 gamers in the 24 - 28 yo bracket. Take out old hats like Varcoe, Reid, Pendles and the 'age' drops dramatically.
- Unfinished business. There's a lot of talk about the Pies will be mentally broken after the pf and gf losses - yeah I don't buy that. Might as well write off GWS, no one's doin that. If anything logically thinking it will steel their resolve.
- The ageing stars, Pendles is pretty much irreplaceable, there has never been another player that has literal ability to bend time to his will - he pre empts things before they happen and usually correctly. At the moment he looks like it's carry on nothing to see here, but I seriously doubt he can carry his current form past this year. Father time gets everyone. Varcoe probably less important from a profile point of view but his pressure epitomises the Pies game plan, can he get enough game time? If so can he still have that necessary impact?
- Executing the game plan, 2019 was an experimental year for the Pies from a system point of view. They experimented with 'controlling transition' with disastrous results, see the North game, yet they still made a prelim as hot favourites. The mind boggles. If they continue to tweak on the path of controlling transition rather than swarm and spread that served them so well then simply they won't win it. Bookmark that.
- The injury curse, even though when they play the way they should equals not personnel reliant you still have to have enough players to make a starting 22. For memory they were down to 27 available to pick from at least once in the last two seasons. That is far from ideal. One would argue that not having Moore in the gf was the deciding factor, even though I don't buy that it's not ideal. The Pies are arguably the worst league wide for injuries, I'd argue management hasn't been ideal in this area either.
- Other teams windows are wider. This is key, it's not that Pies windows has lessened but other teams have widened namely WC, Richmond and GWS. I'd argue that everything has to fall into place to give the Pies an opportunity, that might be under rating, I certainly hope so. It fell into place this year with Hawthorn handing us top 4 at the expense of the Eagles and then suffocated a wily Geelong outfit in the QF - still blew their chance.
Is it last chance saloon or is it not given already established stars beginning their careers like De Goey, Moore, Stephenson and another at least 5 productive years from Grundy?
Are they a contender or not? Very curious position the Pies find themselves in.
Discuss.
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